'Going to affect turnout': Arctic temps on night of IA caucus may hit Trump’s base hardest
At the time Iowans are scheduled to participate in next week's Republican caucuses, the wind chill across the state will be approximately 35 degrees below zero.
CNN meteorologist Chad Myers told host Manu Raju on Wednesday that such a low temperature "is going to be dangerous for people" hoping to caucus for their preferred Republican presidential candidates. He went on to suggest that turnout in rural communities could end up being much less than imagined.
"I grew up in Nebraska, and I can tell you at 35 degrees below zero, farmers, ranchers, they have bigger things to worry about like keeping animals watered, keeping them warm, keeping them alive, than spending a few hours at a courthouse," Myers said. "Trust me on this, there will be a lack of people from the rural areas that actually get there because they have other things to do."
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There may even be warnings out there from the national weather service that says if you don't have pressing business or any emergency business, don't travel," he added. "So what are they gonna do about that?"
Iowa's extreme cold will complicate candidates' plans to increase turnout on caucus night, and may end up leading to surprising results when delegates are allocated. While former President Donald Trump is currently the heavy favorite among the GOP field, his base "skews older," according to an analysis in the London Telegraph. This means the people Trump is counting on to caucus for him may be unable to attend.
"This is going to be the coldest [caucus] on record for a very long time," Myers said. The meteorologist went on to show a graphic of temperatures on previous caucus nights dating back decades, which showed that the coldest caucus night prior to this coming Monday was in 2004, where temperatures were in the teens. In addition to the cold temperatures on Monday, the Hawkeye State will be reeling from a snowstorm expected to dump between six and 12 inches of snow across the state.
"That snow is going to blow some of those roads shut," Myers said. "This is going to affect turnout, without a doubt. How much, we just don't know."
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Watch the video of Myers' segment below or by clicking this link.
