'Bottom line': CNN data analyst reveals real reason behind Trump’s 'late-night fodder' on Alcatraz

CNN data analyst Harry Enten looked into the numbers and believes he knows why Americans are suddenly facing the prospect of the reopening of criminal justice museum Alcatraz Island as an active prison.

“So, when you hear Donald Trump talking about stuff like Alcatraz, yes, I know it's late-night fodder for a lot of different folks, but what it actually speaks to is Donald Trump focusing the American people's attention on an issue in which they actually do like what he's doing,” said Enten. “You think law and order, you think Donald Trump.”

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Despite Trump being a convicted felon, who a jury also found liable for sexual abuse, recent polling shows Americans see Trump as a “Law and order” president.

“I mean, look here,” said Enten, pointing to an April IPSOS poll. “Net approval rating, ‘handling crime,’ what do we have here? We have a positive rating for Donald Trump. Look at that: +2 points, far better than [former president] Joe Biden, who was far underwater. My goodness, he was setting records at -26 points.”

Trump’s net approval on crime is one of the few bright spots in Trump’s polling, according to surveys. Recent Pew Research Center polls found only a 40 percent approval rating on Trump's 100th day in office, marking a decline of 7 percentage points since February. Reuters/Ipsos polls from April 25-27 showed 42 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval, while most recent CNN reporting on April 27 showed Trump at a 41 percent approval, "the lowest for any newly elected president at 100 days dating back at least to Dwight Eisenhower."

The president polls in the negative on just about every issue including the economy, immigration and Trump’s extensive government budget cuts and layoffs. However, he still gets a net positive approval rating of +2 points, which Enten says is 15 points higher than what Trump had in his first term on the same issue.

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“The percentage of Americans who worry a great deal about crime, we actually have seen that percentage drop over the last year,” said Enten, who is also an analyst with polling company FiveThirtyEight. “It was 53 percent last year, and look at where we are now. We're at 47 percent. It's the first time in about five years in which the percentage of Americans who worry a great deal about crime has actually dropped under the 50 percent mark. … In fact, it's one of only two issues in which we saw a five-point decline among both Democrats and Republicans.”

Polling trends show partisans hold sharply differing views of the incidence of crime in the U.S., with Democrats’ much more positive perceptions driving overall decrease changes since last year. However, Gallup showed Republicans’ perception in October 2024 on that same measure “near the group’s record high of 95 percent from 2022, while Democrats’ latest reading is the lowest for their party in Gallup’s trend by 13 points.”

Investigations suggest conservative-leaning organizations like Fox News abruptly halt or ramp up violent crime coverage to influence viewer opinions on incumbent Democrats and Republicans during national elections. Critics say Fox News coverage of violent crime plunges during Republican administrations. That post-2024 election plunge in criminal reports could be reducing the alarmist attitude in conservative circles to match the more realistic perceptions of Democrats, giving Trump a much needed boost that Enten said Trump will likely continue to exploit.

“I think Donald Trump is going to continue on this law and order issue because the bottom line is it’s working for him,” Enten said.

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