What Happens After the Rout?

The NRCC has taken out an $8 million loan, and they are withdrawing all support from candidates running for Democratic-held seats. They will still have a lot of targets to defend, as the DCCC Red to Blue list has now reached 63 seats. The RNC is taking out a $5 million loan, in order to use the money to prop up a few Senators, not to help John McCain. They are going to need it, as polling currently shows Democrats poised for 8 Senate pickups, with Georgia and Mississippi threatening to make it 10 (and a few others not much further behind). Obama's national lead, according to Pollster.com, has ballooned to 8.5%, and that doesn't even include the new CBS poll where Obama leads by 14%.


While the election isn't over, Republicans are clearly just trying to limit the damage at this point rather than making plays to win. And with good cause, too. Right now, Democrats are very close to a 100-seat majority in the House, 60 seats in the Senate, and Obama has about a 95% chance of victory. We appear to be living during the second largest partisan swing during a four-year period since the direct election of Senators, surpassed only by the 1930 and 1932 elections where Democrats picked up 18 Senate seats, 150 House seats, and the Presidency. Click here for historical results.

So, what happens if this rout holds up, and Democrats score a trifecta that includes a 100 seat House majority and 60 seats in the Senate? In the extended entry, I take a look at the macro political ramifications of such a massive Democratic rout.