'Large numbers' of Trump supporters are now distancing themselves from him: analysis

In an article for CNN published Thursday, Aaron Blake, a senior political reporter for the outlet, argued that conservative podcast host Joe Rogan’s recent surprise at the severity of President Donald Trump’s deportation policies may reflect a broader realization among Americans that Trump is going further than many expected in his second term.

Blake used Rogan’s remarks as a jump-off point to explore the disconnect between Trump’s campaign rhetoric and how his policies are now playing out in practice — even among those who supported or endorsed him.

Rogan, who publicly endorsed Trump ahead of the 2024 election, recently expressed alarm over televised scenes of aggressive deportation tactics.

“I really thought they were just going to go after the criminals,” Rogan said. “I did not ever anticipate seeing that on TV on a regular basis.”

Blake noted that while Trump was clear about his hardline immigration stance during both campaigns, even supporters like Rogan appear unprepared for the intensity and scope of the policies now being enacted. The CNN reporter pointed to polling data to argue that many Americans, including independents and even some Republicans, didn’t fully grasp how far Trump would go.

A CBS News-YouGov poll found only 52 percent of Americans believe Trump is doing what he promised during the campaign, with 48 percent saying he’s doing “different things.” Among independents, 53 percent say Trump isn’t following through on his campaign promises. These figures suggest that a significant share of voters did not anticipate the full extent of his agenda.

According to Blake, Public opinion appears to be rapidly shifting.

The percentage of Americans who say Trump is doing what he promised has declined over time — from 70 percent in February to 52 percent this month. Blake argued that these numbers reflect growing discomfort with how far Trump has gone.

“That would suggest large numbers of people have gradually come to believe this wasn’t what the country signed up for,” he wrote.

Blake also underscored how even predictions that Trump might use the Justice Department against political foes or issue sweeping pardons for January 6 rioters underestimated the scale of those actions. While many expected some level of this behavior, the extent has gone beyond what polls showed most thought “very likely.”

A June Pew Research Center poll backs this up, with 48 percent of Americans saying Trump’s actions were worse than they expected, compared to just 20 percent who said they were better.

Blake noted that Trump’s long-standing habit of making extreme promises — and then sometimes not following through — gave supporters leeway to assume he might not act on his most provocative pledges. Now, as those promises are being realized, public reaction is shifting.