Trump II will be different from Trump I in at least one significant way
U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania attend the National Day of Prayer Service at the Washington National Cathedral in Washington, U.S., January 21, 2025.
As Trump said Monday at his second inaugural, “Nothing will stand in our way.” He does not intend to be restrained as he was (obviously not sufficiently) the first time. In his 29-minute inaugural address, he warned that a more experienced Donald Trump will not take no for an answer.
Which raises the obvious question: What will restrain him? My candidates for the major restraints are:
1. The federal courts. Federal judges will not rubber-stamp whatever Trump wants to do. Most understand their first responsibility is to the Constitution and the rule of law. They do not think of themselves as partisan (most were nominated by Democratic presidents). You have reason to be worried about the majority on the Supreme Court, but the Supreme Court reviews less than 1 percent of federal cases.
2. Trump’s obsession with the stock market. Time and again, he’s indicated that he measures his success by how well the Dow and S&P are doing. This obsession arguably will limit his wilder economic ideas, such as imposing tariffs on all nations, which would cause the market to plunge.
3. The Republicans’ tiny majority in the House. The Republicans’ five-seat lead is the smallest since the Great Depression — so narrow that a couple of members can derail or kill anything Trump wants. Yes, Republican lawmakers are cowed by Trump. But their constituents are in favor of or against a variety of things, some of which are likely to run counter to what Trump seeks. Every House member is up for reelection in 2026, so the very narrow Republican majority could spell trouble for Trump’s agenda.
4. The common sense of the American people. Donald Trump won the popular vote by a tiny 1.5 points. You have to go back to the 2000 election to find a smaller margin for a winning presidential candidate. Despite the hype from Fox News and Trumpworld, most Americans are wary of Trump. Arguably, most won’t abide his cruelty, such as splitting up families and putting undocumented people into concentration camps.
So today’s Office Hours question: What will be the major restraint on Trump II?
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Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/.
