Trump keeps his promises to voters — except the economic ones
“When he was campaigning Trump told you he was going to raise tariffs, so he’s doing what he campaigned on,” is a thing people say.
Fair enough.
When he was campaigning, Trump also promised “Starting on Day 1, we will end inflation and make America affordable again,” as well as “Prices will come down. You just watch: They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.”
Trump also promised that “drill baby drill” would not only “unleash” energy production in the U.S. As he insisted repeatedly at his campaign appearances in Nevada last year, lower energy costs rippling through the economy as a result of drill baby drill was also the centerpiece of his strategy for lowering prices on all other goods and services.
After falling consistently from its peak in the summer of 2022, the price of gas nationally has been been more or less stable for months, and now is within a nickel of what it was both the day Trump was elected and the day Trump was inaugurated.
In Nevada, the price of a gallon of regular is actually about a dime higher than when Trump was inaugurated.
Oil prices are projected to decline slightly this year, not because of drill baby drill, but because Trump’s tariffs and their accompanying televised presidential hissy fits are a drag on the economy. Trump met with oil industry executives Wednesday. They love the prospect of Trump cutting their taxes and regulations. But to no one’s surprise, except perhaps Trump’s, in these economic and geopolitical conditions, they (and their shareholders) have almost zero interest in drill baby drilling.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by 5.5% since Trump’s inauguration. The S&P 500 has lost nearly 8% of its value. The Nasdaq Composite Index has dropped by more than 12%. A Deutsche Bank analysis the other day noted that under Trump, U.S. stocks are recording the second-worst post-inauguration performance in nearly 90 years.
“When I take office your 401 (k) or IRA will start losing money very quickly, almost like nobody’s ever seen before” was not among Trump’s campaign promises. But he delivered on it anyway.
And what about the charismatic megafauna of Trump Nevada-specific policy promises, holy sacred No Tax on Tips amen?
Budget-wise it’s among the smallest of the numerous tax cuts he promised (the lost revenue from No Tax on Social Security income is humongous by comparison). So it might be included in the tax cuts for the rich and corporate that Trump and congressional Republicans are poised to pay for by cutting Medicaid (which will hurt Nevada more than most states, by the way).
At the same time, if tariffs send consumers into a spending tailspin, and tourists (and not just international ones) stop coming to Las Vegas, a lot of folks who might have hoped to catch a No Tax on Tips break may find that the presence or absence of federal taxation of tips is the least of their problems. If it wasn’t already.
Oh, and speaking of Social Security, Trump repeatedly promised while campaigning that he wouldn’t touch it. Yet he’s also enabling and parroting Elon Musk’s attempts to undermine what Musk calls a “Ponzi scheme.”
When he was campaigning Trump also promised to be a dictator on day one, punish his enemies, and concentrate unprecedented and, according to multiple lower federal courts, unconstitutional authority in the executive branch at the expense of Congress and the judiciary.
Voters knew that was coming, too.
And whether despite that or because of it, a majority of Nevada voters joined a plurality of voters nationally to let Trump have at it.
In stark contrast to his thus-far barren promises that prices will come down and tremendous wealth will wash across the land, Trump has made substantial progress toward fulfilling his promises to establish authoritarian rule while sidelining an obeisant legislative branch and attacking an often game but structurally plodding judicial system.
Now all Trump need do to solidify his regime and its lawlessness going forward is convince voters that a ramshackle wreck of a third-rate economy is a small price to pay for the privilege of being ruled by Trump the Grand Authoritarian and his cadre of cold-blooded henchmen and creepy oligarchs.
What are the odds voters will buy that in the 21st century? Judging from the last 10 years or so, fifty-fifty sounds about right.
A version of this column was originally published in the Daily Current newsletter, which is free and which you can subscribe to here.
Nevada Current is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Nevada Current maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Hugh Jackson for questions: info@nevadacurrent.com.
