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Republican extorts White House for funding after Trump betrayal

Political analysts have joked for the last few weeks that members of the Republican Party who have lost their primaries but still have until the end of the year to govern have become part of the informal "YOLO Caucus," meaning "you only live once." According to an exclusive Semafor interview with outgoing Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), he has started flexing his voting power to get what he wants before leaving.

In one incident, Cornyn extorted the White House out of funds that his state had been owed for over a year. In 2025, Congress allocated more than $10 billion in funds for border security, but until Cornyn acted, Texas hadn't seen a dime of it.

“Basically, I told Senator Barrasso and Senator [John] Thune: ‘There’s a price for my vote, and it is to get the administration to release the money,’” Cornyn said in his interview with Semafor.

White House Director of the Office of Management and Budget Russel Vought quickly called, promising "we’ll put a notice of funding."

Cornyn, who has been a loyal supporter of Trump's initiatives, voting with him 99.2 percent of the time, but Trump never returned the loyalty, endorsing Cornyn's scandal-plagued opponent, Ken Paxton.

“That’s one example I think of what you can do when you have some cards to play," said Cornyn of his newly discovered powers.

Cornyn is also ready to be a thorn in Trump's side over his appointment of Todd Blanche for the attorney general spot. He said he's not a solid supporter, but he's willing to "listen."

The four-term senator also isn't going to help his opponent. Instead, he's opting to help his friends and allies in tough races in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire.

“The president picked Paxton, and he’s got $350 million dollars. I think he can spend his money,” Cornyn said of Texas and Trump. “I’m going to try to help in other places.”

Cornyn isn't the first Senator to the mock caucus. Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) lost his primary in May after a Trump-supported Republican ousted him. The founder could easily be considered Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who announced he was retiring after a number of public battles with Trump. He has become less fearful of the president's wrath in the past several months.

Cassidy told Semafor that he and Cornyn were "like-minded in the sense that we’re both not returning, and that gives a certain focus. And he’s conveyed he’s got no illusions about the president."

That said, he added, they're not scheming "in a smoke-filled room."

Cornyn frequently spoke to the president while serving as the Majority Whip, but doing so wasn't “particularly useful,” he said. Trump "can and will change his mind depending on the next person he talks to on the phone. The president seems to revel in chaos, which is so different from any other leader that I’ve ever seen. I don’t know about you, but I like to minimize the chaos in my life. He just seems to revel in it. We’ve seen even recent evidence of it on the DNI."

Cornyn went on to mock colleague Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who thinks “somehow we’re going to beat the opponents into submission." By opponents, he means the Democrats. The Texas lawmaker explained to the younger Lee, “I’ve worked here a long time. It doesn’t work that way."

The GOP lawmaker promises he's not a member of the "YOLO caucus"; rather, “I am free to disagree." Before was another matter.

Other than helping fund GOP candidates outside of Texas, he's thinking about possible contenders for the 2028 presidential election. While Cornyn is trying to decide between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, he joked he didn't want to "jinx either one of them."

“But don’t tell Ted Cruz that, because Ted wants to be the next president," he added.

Cruz ran for president in 2016, during which he was outspoken in his opposition to Trump.

Behind the 'hot dog' MAGA men afraid of their own 'radical' movement

With MAGA collapsing into a circular firing squad as its leaders seek to apportion blame for the failures and chaos wrought by President Donald Trump, Vox contributor Zack Beauchamp has a novel metaphor for their attempts to wriggle out of responsibility for their own movement’s actions: “It’s a real-life version of the famous sketch on Tim Robinson’s show I Think You Should Leave, where a hot-dog-shaped car crashes into a storefront and a man in a hot dog suit says, ‘We’re all trying to find the guy who did this.’”

The MAGA infighting, asserts Beauchamp, is being fueled by such “hot dog men,” and there is no shortage of examples.

“In 2017, US Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) offered what remains one of the most insightful explanations of Donald Trump’s rise from any elected official,” writes Beauchamp. “Massie, a Tea Party libertarian in the Rand and Ron Paul mode, was wondering why so many of his supporters could back an un-libertarian candidate like Trump. His conclusion was grim. ‘They weren’t voting for libertarian ideas — they were voting for the craziest son of a b—- in the race,’ Massie said. ‘And Donald Trump won best in class.’”

Massie’s criticism of the president only grew since then, ultimately resulting in his electoral loss when Trump targeted him in a recent primary. But, writes Beauchamp, at no point did Massie reflect “on how his own actions caused the problem. Massie’s years of vocal support for Trump, and his boundary-pushing Tea Party politics, had helped turn the GOP into the political chaos agent he once bemoaned.”

This, says Beauchamp, makes Massie a poster child for MAGA’s “hot dog men,” and the examples are mounting.

“Joe Rogan, who regularly sells his audience on conspiratorial mistrust of official narratives, is now denouncing conspiracy theories about the assassination attempts on Trump. The pundit Ben Shapiro has gone to war against right-wing podcaster Candace Owens, who he now calls an antisemitic crank — while barely acknowledging that he himself played an instrumental role in Owens’s rise. You can even see this happening with Trump himself, who has spent his presidency battling rumors about an elite pedophile network run by Jeffrey Epstein that he helped stoke earlier, and which arose from a MAGA movement he trained to see conspiracy at every turn.”

Their growing ranks, asserts Beauchamp, suggest that the “right-wing political machine is spinning out of control in ways that even some of its most aggressive and radical voices recognize as dangerous. And as the right searches for new leadership before Trump himself fades into history, nobody on their side has shown any proven ability to contain or redirect its worst impulses. In the absence of post-Trump leaders both willing and able to address the real problems, the future of the right — and, thus, in some sense, America — is dangerously unclear.”

“There are, at present, a disproportionate number of hot dog men in the right’s top ranks,” Beauchamp concludes. “This is not a coincidence. It’s a reflection of the right hitting a moment where its continuing radicalization has begun to elude the control of even the people who thought they were steering the ship.”

Trump blindsides GOP as leaders warn he's giving control of congress to the Dems

GOP senators were quite frustrated when, on Wednesday, June 17, President Donald Trump delayed the nomination of federal prosecutor Jay Clayton for director of national intelligence (DNI) in order to keep Acting DNI Bill Pulte in that position longer. That delay, according to The Hill's Alexander Bolton, underscores growing tensions between Trump and Senate Republicans.

"President Trump's relationship with key Senate Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), is crumbling after repeated clashes over strategy on an array of issues," Bolton reports in The Hill. "The two sides are splitting further apart as the midterm election nears and GOP lawmakers fear the potential loss of both chambers of Congress. GOP senators say there has been a major loss of trust between the president and many members of their conference as the White House has repeatedly blindsided Thune and other Republican leaders."

Another source of frustration for Thune, Bolton notes, is Trump's decision to endorse far-right Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary for Texas' 2026 U.S. Senate race. Paxton won the nomination, and Thune isn't shy about saying that Cornyn would have had a much better shot against Democratic nominee James Talarico.

Cornyn told The Hill, "In my case, there was no real reason given my support for the president's agenda. When he endorsed my primary opponent, people realized you could never do enough to stop the president from endorsing your primary opponent. I think that destroyed what remained of any kind of trust. I think that changed the playing field in a way where you see a lot more what I would call transactional relationships as opposed to one based on trust."

Outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) warns fellow Republicans that Trump is making it easier for Democrats to flip either or both branches of Congress in the 2026 midterms.

Tillis told The Hill, "When we're five months out from a major election (when) we historically have headwinds, you've got to be pitch-perfect and you got to execute with precision. We can't surprise the president and the administration cannot surprise us. Every time we do that between now and November, we're diminishing our chances of holding our majorities."

This Wednesday, June 24, according to Bolton, Trump "will have a chance to discuss his differences with Republican senators in person" and address the Steering Republican Committee at the invitation of its chairman, Sen. Rick Wilson (R-Florida).

"Republican senators are growing more and more frustrated over Trump's unrelenting calls to pass the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE America) Act, which would require people to provide proof of citizenship when registering to vote and to show photo ID when voting, despite the fact that it has already failed five times on the floor," Bolton notes. "Trump surprised Republicans again when he posted on social media Wednesday morning that he would not sign an extension of FISA's enhanced surveillance authorities unless the SAVE America Act is attached to it — something that is a complete nonstarter with Republicans."

Trump's DOJ is on a collision course with Texas landowners

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, senior fellow at the Immigration Council and a former immigration lawyer, shared a job listing with the Justice Department, which could indicate the future operations of President Donald Trump's administration in Texas.

"DOJ is indeed hiring attorneys whose primary job will be filing eminent domain and condemnation cases to seize private land (mostly in Texas) on which to build [a] border wall," said Reichlin-Melnick on X.

The post reads, "The U.S. Attorney's Office is currently seeking to fill Assistant United States Attorney (AUSA) positions in our San Antonio, Texas office to perform legal work pertaining to the establishment of the Border Wall, If selected the individual will be working on land condemnation matters and related cases mostly involving the border with Mexico. Duties will include owners and witness interviews, confirming land titles, property negotiations, and federal eminent domain litigation among other things. Responsibilities will increase and assignments will become more complex as your training and experience progress."

It was first flagged by Big Bend Sentinel reporter Sam Karas, who linked to the USAJobs listing.

"Hadn't thought to trawl USA Jobs for border wall stuff yet –– the DOJ is hiring AUSAs specifically to help with condemnation proceedings. $78k to sue people out of their property to build the wall, with openings in San Antonio, Laredo and McAllen," he wrote on X.

"Based on courthouse geography, I'm guessing the San Antonio person would be in charge of the Big Bend and Del Rio Sectors. That posting closes at the end of the month, so if my guess is correct, they're moving quickly to try to get land deals squared away," Karas added.

Texas residents have been fighting against the federal government's attempt to take privately owned land. In a ruling earlier this month, the Texas state Supreme Court ruled that "state agencies cannot invoke sovereign immunity to block former landowners from reclaiming property taken through eminent domain and later deemed unnecessary for public use."

It's a case that has been bubbling since 2013, when Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) attempted to buy the land to install a new road. The owners pushed back, so the government simply took the land in an eminent domain case. They backed down once the state agreed to pay $1.05 per square foot of the land. There were about 20,000 square feet of land left over from the project, and landowners want that back, but the state refused.

President Donald Trump has long promised to build a large "Wall" that would prevent people from crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. That promise became more of an incomplete fence project. That project began in 2006, when former President George W. Bush erected the fences, seizing land for the project and sparking a huge battle between Texas residents and the state's former governor.

Libertarian U.S. Senate candidate Ted Brown commented that he opposes eminent domain and "supports the property rights of landowners at the border."

The issue may gain traction among the candidates for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in the state as the midterms near.

'Destroy its legitimacy': Trump's war on the Supreme Court escalates

With the Supreme Court soon to rule on three of President Donald Trump’s key priorities, court commentators say he is escalating his attacks against the very conservative justices he appointed.

“As the justices prepare to rule on three signature Trump initiatives,” writes Washington Post Supreme Court reporter Justin Jouvenal, including “limiting birthright citizenship, firing the heads of independent agencies and reshaping the Federal Reserve… many legal experts believe that the justices have signaled they will rule against Trump on two out of the three, blocking his bid to deny citizenship to those who were born to parents here illegally or lacking permanent residency, as well as his effort to remove a governor of the Fed board.” This is almost certain to draw the president’s ire.

According to Jeffrey L. Fisher, a law professor at Stanford University, “It seems like almost 100 years since you’ve had a clash approaching this level between the president and the court. You’d have to go back to the New Deal to have any kind of an analogue.”

Says Jouvenal, Trump’s growing fight with the court is especially notable as he himself appointed three of its conservative justices, who have already been instrumental in handing him several key victories over the course of his first term, like allowing him to freeze foreign aid and dismantle the Department of Education. But as Jouvenal writes, “The wins have not satisfied Trump, who has attacked the court — including his own nominees — in increasingly caustic and personal terms that legal scholars say have little historical precedent; Trump has called the justices ‘bad,’ ‘stupid,’ ‘weak’ and other epithets.”

According to one MAGA ally who helped secure Trump-appointed Justice Neil Gorsuch’s seat, the president’s attacks on the justices are a good thing because “Sometimes feeling the heat helps people see the light." To rule against Trump, he argued, would "destroy the legitimacy" of the court.

Harvard University law professor Richard Lazarus says that, ultimately, Trump believes that conservative justices should be loyal to him rather than act as an independent branch of government. “There’s no question that Trump, starting with the tariff case, has taken aim at the court and made quite clear his expectation that justices who were nominated by Republican presidents should vote for his positions,” Lazarus said.

After the court struck down most of Trump’s tariffs in February, with conservative justices Gorsuch, Amy Coney Barrett, and Chief Justice John Roberts joining liberals in the decision, the president erupted over the outcome, saying he was “ashamed” of the justices and that it was an “embarrassment to their families.” Then in April, he became the first sitting president to attend court arguments in what was widely viewed as an attempt to pressure conservative justices. Shortly after that, “Trump accused the liberal justices of embracing ‘warped and perverse policies, ideas, and cases’ and said the conservatives ‘give the Democrats win after win.’ He added that ‘certain “Republican” Justices have just gone weak, stupid, and bad.’" Then, Trump posted a nearly 550-word rant where he complained about conservative justices’ lack of “loyalty,” claiming, “Well, maybe Neil, and Amy, just had a really bad day, but our Country can only handle so many decisions of that magnitude before it breaks down, and cracks!!!”

For their part, say insiders, the justices have privately grappled with whether to quietly ignore the attacks or offer a more forceful public response. So far, they have avoided criticizing Trump directly.

When recently asked about the question of judicial loyalty to the president, Gorsuch did assert that his “loyalty is to the Constitution.” And Roberts has argued that attacks against judges and justices are “dangerous” and have ”got to stop," though he did not specify Trump as the assailant.

Inside the 'boogeyman' myth driving Trump's sweeping federal crackdown

Every week, it feels like President Donald Trump’s administration is making a new piece of news about elections. It is investigating past elections in at least four states. It is exploring what feels like every possible avenue to get ahold of voter data in individual states and counties. It is attempting to create new administrative hurdles to mail voting and prioritizing major voting legislation over all else.

This article was originally published by Votebeat, a nonprofit news organization covering local election administration and voting access.

But it all ties back to one thing: the repeated assertions from the president and his allies that noncitizens are voting in significant numbers.

No evidence has emerged to support that. Election officials and experts have repeatedly said those assertions are false and such cases are rare. But they appear to be the animating force behind everything the administration is doing.

Scattered reports that investigators for the Department of Homeland Security are requesting detailed data on individual registered voters confirm the administration’s ongoing focus on finding and prosecuting any such cases.

Earlier this month, the New York Times reported that the Justice Department was pressing prosecutors to focus on 90 open investigations into potential noncitizens voting as a top priority. Federal prosecutors have already brought some cases against individuals that officials are touting, including one in Louisiana last week.

But despite the administration’s zeal, it isn’t clear how many such cases there are to bring. States have run more than 60 million records of registered voters through a revamped federal immigration database that the administration has encouraged state election officials to use to validate the citizenship of registered voters, according to the Department of Homeland Security. That’s around a third of the voters registered in the U.S., according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Out of those, the department told Votebeat, the system has flagged around 24,000 as potential noncitizens — about 0.04%. All those cases “have been referred to ICE’s Homeland Security Investigations for further investigation,” the department said in a statement.

As Votebeat reported in April, the Department of Homeland Security is sending subpoenas to local elections officials in Texas, searching for detailed information about individual voters. Investigators have also contacted at least one county in North Carolina, a development reported last week by Axios.

The Department of Homeland Security said it is “actively rooting out and investigating election fraud wherever it can be found,” and declined to comment on specific cases.

Twenty-four thousand potential cases sounds like a lot, but election officials have already found that at least some of those potential noncitizens have turned out to be citizens.

It also isn’t clear how many of those people have actually voted. Experts across the political spectrum agree that noncitizens who don’t understand the laws may accidentally register to vote, so that in and of itself is not necessarily a sign of intentional fraud. The Department of Homeland Security didn’t respond to questions about how many cases of noncitizen voting the agency has documented, or how many registered voters flagged as potential noncitizens have turned out to be citizens.

But administration officials and those who support the investigations have been quick to dismiss questions about whether the small number of cases means noncitizen voting isn’t a big issue.

Last weekend, CNN anchor Kasie Hunt asked Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin about data from the conservative Heritage Foundation that showed only 25 cases of people being prosecuted for voter fraud where citizenship was an issue.

“Well, 25 is too many,” said Mullin. “It’s kind of like one illegal death, one individual that dies from the hands of an illegal is one too many. It’s all preventable. One person voting illegally is one too many. We shouldn’t have to worry about even one.”

Justin Riemer, president of Restoring Integrity and Trust in Elections, a conservative nonprofit focused on voting issues, agreed with Mullin’s perspective.

“Why is it such a bad thing that they are enforcing federal law?” Riemer said. “To me, any election crime is serious and needs to be prosecuted. I don’t think it’s a good system that this happens, regardless of how often it happens.”

Ken Cuccinelli, who during the first Trump administration was acting deputy secretary at the Department of Homeland Security, said outside investigations are no substitute for federal investigations that have much more authority to examine potential fraud.

“It may be that they bring nothing of it and that will tell us more than anything else, but I suspect that’s unlikely,” he said.

Ultimately, Cuccinelli said, “this is as much about confidence in who is participating in the voter rolls and whether our states themselves are helping, hiding, or hurting the security and transparency of our elections system.”

Justin Levitt, a professor at Loyola Law School who worked in the White House on democracy and voting rights issues under Joe Biden, characterized the Trump administration’s search as an unproductive hunt for a “boogeyman” to cast doubt on American elections.

“The notion that noncitizens are voting in elections in sufficient quantities to swing those elections, particularly in statewide contests, is a fiction,” he said.

Lorraine Minnite, a Rutgers University political science professor and author of a book on voter fraud, suggested that the Trump administration investigations were an effort to create “maximum chaos and intimidation” across the country.

“The picture of the federal government sending Homeland Security to investigate is such overkill that you have to believe that they are trying to create a spectacle to intimidate people and go on a fishing expedition using bad data,” she said.

Dion Nissenbaum is Votebeat’s senior national reporter and is based in Houston. Contact Dion at dnissenbaum@votebeat.org.

Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization covering local election integrity and voting access. Sign up for their newsletters here.

The real reason the FBI is investigating this red state's voting rights groups

Federal officials have served a subpoena on one of the nation’s leading nonprofit voter outreach groups, which has financially supported the Ohio election advocacy group at the center of a deepening investigation by the Trump administration, according to a source familiar with the probe.

This article was originally published by Votebeat, a nonprofit news organization covering local election administration and voting access.

The FBI served the subpoena on America Votes, a Washington-based organization founded by prominent Democratic leaders that works to turn out voters nationwide, the sources said.

America Votes, which has given the Ohio Organizing Collaborative at least $500,000 in recent years, according to its tax filings, issued a statement Wednesday confirming it had received a subpoena “asking for basic records related to funding of the Ohio Organizing Collaborative. We have been informed America Votes is not a target of the investigation.”

The subpoena signals a broader FBI investigation into the Ohio Organizing Collaborative, a statewide nonprofit group founded in 2007 that works on voting rights efforts. The Ohio Organizing Collaborative’s sister organization, Ohio Organizing Campaign, said it registered nearly 160,000 Ohio voters in 2024, describing the effort as the largest independent voter registration program in the country.

Prentiss Haney, an Ohio Organizing Collaborative board member and former director of the group, said the FBI appeared to be seeking information from America Votes and other voting rights groups that worked with his organization.

“This is very far reaching,” he said. “They seem to be fishing for any- and everything related to civil rights and voting rights infrastructure.”

The FBI and Justice Department did not respond to emails seeking comment. Last week, FBI special agents searched the Ohio Organizing Collaborative’s offices and questioned staff members and volunteers about potential voter registration fraud, according to Haney and others familiar with the investigation.

Haney said he did not know the full extent of the FBI investigation.

The FBI probe comes amid rising concerns ahead of the November midterm election about Trump administration efforts to question the legitimacy of voting in America. Trump has repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that voter fraud cost him the 2020 presidential election. Most recently, he accused Democrats, again without evidence, of rigging results in the California primary earlier this month.

FBI agents have seized ballots from the 2020 presidential election in Fulton County, Georgia, and secured election records in Maricopa County, Arizona.

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, a Republican, has been at the forefront of efforts among elections officials to scrutinize potential voter fraud. Last year, LaRose referred more than 1,200 cases to the Justice Department for criminal investigation, largely related to alleged unlawful voter registration of voting activity. LaRose said he found more than 1,000 noncitizens who had registered to vote, including 167 noncitizens who appeared to have voted in federal elections between 2018 and 2024.

But the figures represent allegations, not yet proven cases. Previous batches of LaRose voter-fraud referrals have produced few prosecutions: AP reported that of 621 criminal referrals sent to Ohio’s attorney general, prosecutors secured indictments against only nine people for voting as noncitizens over a decade.

Voter fraud is exceedingly rare across the country and studies, audits, and court cases have found no evidence that it occurs at anything close to the scale needed to alter modern statewide or federal election outcomes except in very unusual cases.

Dion Nissenbaum is Votebeat’s senior national reporter and is based in Houston. Contact Dion at dnissenbaum@votebeat.org.

Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization covering local election integrity and voting access. Sign up for their newsletters here.

Bombshell: Kushner initially denied top-secret security clearance

Jared Kushner's investment fund, Affinity Partners, and its ties to Saudi Arabia not only drew scrutiny from Democrats; even conservative Rep. James Comer (R-Kentucky) warned that it "crossed the line of ethics." According to Mother Jones' Casey Michel, Kushner was "denied top-secret clearance" — that is, until his father-in-law, President Donald Trump, stepped in and "overruled intelligence officials."

"Of course, it wasn't just Saudi Arabia that saw Kushner as a pliable source of influence," Michel explains in Mother Jones. "The United Arab Emirates, whose own despot had cultivated Kushner years before, began tossing money at Affinity Partners around the same time. So did the Qatari regime, which slipped back into America's good graces as it was helping bail out Kushner's family company. To date, firms linked to the UAE and Qatar have invested at least $1.5 billion in Kushner's fund. With more modest infusions from smaller investors, nearly all foreign, Affinity's asset pool grew and grew, topping $6 billion and generating more than $100 million in management fees for Kushner and his partners…. The investments themselves weren't enough of an ethical hornet's nest, the contracts Affinity signed give the regimes troubling leverage over Kushner."

Michel adds, "They allow investors to pull out after a five-year window, which means Saudi Arabia and Qatar have the power to implode Affinity in the middle of Trump's second term, decimating Kushner’s standing — a financial sword of Damocles that, by extension, dangles over the federal government."

A former White House official, interviewed on condition of anonymity, told Mother Jones, "There was a risk the Saudis were playing him."

Michel notes that according to NBC News, Kushner's application for a top-secret security clearance was initially rejected because of fears "about potential foreign influence." But when Trump overruled intelligence officials, Kushner was, Michel reports, granted "access to America's most closely held secrets."

"As MBS (Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman) tucked Kushner further into his pocket," Michel reports, "other regimes tried to replicate the Saudi success. One year into Trump's first term, U.S. intelligence analysts reported that officials from a range of foreign countries had 'privately discussed ways they can manipulate Jared Kushner,' the Washington Post noted, 'by taking advantage of his complex business arrangements, financial difficulties, and lack of foreign policy experience.' They'd hit on the same conclusion as MBS: Kushner was tractable, and perhaps the best vector for influencing Trump."

Michel continues, "One of those countries was Israel…. Russia had a similar epiphany. Once Trump was sworn in, Kushner became a Kremlin target second only to Trump himself. President Vladimir Putin, federal documents show, tasked businessman Kirill Dmitriev with courting top White House officials, and Dmitriev took a particular interest in Kushner."

According to Michel, "Kushner's assertion" that he "would play no role in a second administration crumbled as soon as Trump returned to power" — and foreign powers have been "quick to recapitalize on his proximity to the throne."

"(Kusner) and his partners are traveling the world, gleefully raking in cash as they cultivate relationships with sordid regimes and kleptocratic leaders in the interest of making a buck," Michel warns. "The world burns, and Jared Kushner gets richer."

Red state set to lose 51,000 jobs and $5.3 billion — thanks to Trump

Ohio will lose 51,000 jobs and $5.3 billion from the state economy in 2029, according to a new analysis.

That’s the effect that cuts to Medicaid and food assistance under a massive 2025 spending law will have when they’re fully phased in. It’s also the consequence of Republicans allowing Affordable Care Act subsidies to expire at the end of the last year, according to a Commonwealth Fund analysis which was published last week.

Those losses come despite $200 million in rural health money Ohio will get from a fund that Republicans built into the spending bill. The measure was meant to quell concerns that Medicaid cuts could close rural hospitals, the analysis said.

“While the infusion of $10 billion into state economies for rural health contributes to some economic growth, it is overshadowed by the $31 billion in federal funding cuts to ACA marketplaces,” the analysis said.

That’s a reference to pandemic-era subsidies to buy insurance in Affordable Care Act Marketplaces.

When Congress allowed them to expire, most of the 600,000 Ohioans who bought insurance on the exchanges saw premiums for their plans double. That prompted many to drop down to cheaper, lower-quality plans and many more to leave the marketplace altogether. KFF reports that Ohio enrollment was down 20% this year.

Even bigger losses to the state loom when the provisions of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” take full effect, the Commonwealth Fund report said.

The legislation cut more than $900 billion over 10 years from Medicaid. It also cut $187 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, commonly known as food stamps or EBT.

Along with deep cuts to the safety net, Trump’s signature law gave huge tax cuts to the richest Americans. The Commonwealth Fund analysis said it amounted to yet another upward redistribution of wealth.

“Under (the Trump spending law), cuts to health and nutrition programs largely harm Americans with lower incomes, while tax cuts primarily benefit those with higher incomes,” it said.

“The (Congressional Budget Office) estimates that Americans in with lowest 10% of incomes will lose about $1,200 per year (3.1% of their incomes), while those with the top 10% of incomes will gain $13,600 per year (2.7% of their incomes). Other analyses reached similar conclusions.”

The cuts won’t just harm low-income Americans, the analysis said, they’ll damage entire state economies. It’s a consequence of taking away huge streams of funding for healthcare and food.

“In 2029, federal Medicaid funding will drop by $90.9 billion, causing state GDPs to fall by $118.5 billion,” it said.

“Medicaid cuts also mean 996,000 fewer jobs nationwide in 2029, half of which will be health-related, including in hospitals, clinics, pharmacies, or nursing homes. States with the largest job losses include California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Texas, Arizona, Ohio, and Michigan, which lose between 150,200 and 36,600 jobs.”

It projected that Ohio will lose the eighth-most jobs — 51,200.

It also said the state will lose $4.4 billion in federal funding, thereby reducing state GDP by $5.4 billion and state and local revenue collection by $368 million.

The largest single measure to produce Medicaid savings in the Trump spending law is a broader, stricter work requirement.

But the Commonwealth Fund report predicted that it will end up making it even harder for recipients to find jobs.

“Proponents of the law explained that the budget cuts were intended to exclude ‘undeserving’ populations from accessing benefits, such as able-bodied people who choose to not work, claiming these changes would ultimately help them gain jobs and incomes,” it said.

“But evidence indicates that work requirement programs do little to increase employment because they fail to address underlying reasons for unemployment. Moreover, by reducing the number of jobs in low-income communities, the new law could make it even harder for people to find jobs.”

Trump's winning coalition is unraveling as his MAGA base is suffers the most

The coalition Trump built in 2024 is fracturing, and now even his MAGA base is feeling the pain.

The blue-collar supporters who have long aligned themselves with the Trump base are beginning to abandon him as he's failed to make good on economic promises, The Guardian reported on Monday.

Those who once gave Trump strong support are now frustrated by rising costs, weak economic results, and a growing sense that his policies are not improving their lives. The shift comes months before the 2026 midterm elections, where Republicans are depending on such voters to keep them in power.

The report cited 2024 numbers showing "Trump won 66 percent of white voters without a college degree." That has changed, according to a new CBS News poll, which "found that 54 percent of that demographic disapprove of his performance. That was up from 45 percent disapproval in February (before Trump began bombing Iran) and up sharply from 32 percent in February 2025."

New data suggests that the slippage is coming most sharply from white working-class and lower-income voters rather than the more affluent voters.

The larger problem for the GOP is that these voters aren't merely abandoning Trump; there is a deeper erosion of trust among voters who felt like Trump understood their economic plight more than Democrats. Blue-collar voters have traditionally been supporters of Democrats. But now, that base, including union workers, has gone full MAGA.

Trump has spent most of his first 17 months in office claiming that economic affordability was nothing more than a "Democrat hoax" and a "con job." At one point, he went so far as to claim that Democrats "made up the word affordability."

When Trump was running for office in 2024, he promised lower gas prices and lower food prices. At one point, he did a press conference with a table full of food items and gushed about the word "groceries."

Instead, voters now "face painful 4.2 percent inflation, the highest rate in three years," The Guardian continued. "Trump has utterly failed on another important promise to blue-collar Americans: to increase manufacturing jobs. Ever since Trump returned to office, the number of factory jobs has declined by 68,000. As for Trump’s promise not to begin any foreign wars, many blue-collar Americans are furious that he launched his unsuccessful war against Iran, which, to their huge dismay, has pushed up gasoline and grocery prices."

One loyal Trump supporter in Ohio, Peggy Liff, talked about how excited she was for lower inflation in the first three months of the new administration. After Trump announced his trade war, however, inflation increased. It hasn't been that low ever since and is now on the rise.

“He’s concentrating on other things, like overseas, Iran,” she told The Washington Post. “He says he’s doing it for us, but I don’t see where that’s happening.”

That said, The Guardian explained, those voters aren't ready to return to Democrats; instead, they're thinking of staying home in November.

From TruthSocial to backroom deals — and why Trump's unconventional tactics are failing

The negotiations to end the US-Iran war, resulting in the signing of a memorandum of understanding on June 17, have been something of an acid test of Donald Trump’s approach to diplomacy. What does it tell us? And has this US president changed the way diplomacy is done?

When Trump was inaugurated for his second presidency in January 2025, he announced his intention to be both a peacemaker and to pursue an “America first” foreign policy, focused on avoiding wars and bringing direct benefits to the US. By November 2025, he declared he had already settled eight “raging conflicts” across the world.

In January this year, the forced removal of Nicolas Maduro as president of Venezuela and installation of Delcy Rodríguez as a more US-friendly successor led Trump’s deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller, to tell CNN: “You can talk all you want about international niceties and everything else. But we live in a world, the real world … that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power.”

But the Iran war has shown Trumpian diplomacy colliding with a real world that does not always bend to his will or succumb to US displays of force. The real world, it seems, is more complex than he thought.

Hitherto, five elements have characterised Trump’s approach to diplomacy.First, he prefers to eschew the traditional institutions and mechanisms of diplomacy. The State Department languishes, the UN is ignored. Traditional alliances, multilateral organisations and international gatherings have been disdained, unless they provide a platform for Trump to demonstrate his power and “call the shots”.

Rather than use US ambassadors or diplomats to tackle international issues, Trump relies on a small cast of trusted personal envoys – including his son-in-law Jared Kushner, real-estate developer Steve Witkoff and Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessman who is father-in-law to his daughter Tiffany – to negotiate on his behalf. Even the secretary of state and national security advisor, Marco Rubio, is given a limited role, mainly in the western hemisphere.

Second, Trump’s approach to diplomacy, as to government as a whole, is distinctly personal. He likes to deal with other leaders directly, man-to-man, provided they are leaders he respects.

This tends to comprise a small group that includes Chinese president Xi Jinping, Russian president Vladimir Putin, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and (sometimes) Saudi Arabia’s ruler Mohammed bin Salman. Trump will see others but, as the Ukrainian president Volodymir Zelensky and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa found, he likes to publicly demonstrate his superiority to them.

Third – as Miller reflected – Trump sees power as deriving from military might and economic strength. He is willing to use both freely in bilateral relations to get what he sees as a good deal for America. Appeals to principle, to the international rule of law, to human rights or to the value of democracy have all gone out of the window.

He has also demonstrated his willingness to strike first – by unilaterally imposing the so-called Liberation day tariffs, or by sending marines to Caracas – and talk later. Other leaders recognise that having friends can be a source of power – but this, it seems, is not an approach that appeals to the US president. Having friends requires building trust and accepting a reciprocal – not just transactional – relationship.

Fourth, public messaging is crucial. How do his actions look on the media, to his Maga faithful, to the markets and to the world? Trump’s use of his TruthSocial platform to negotiate in public – with friend and foe alike – is the antithesis of traditional diplomacy, where secret channels, confidential negotiations and trusted interlocutors play a central role.

His ability to “flood the zone”, by overwhelming the media and any critics while spinning his own message, has given him a big advantage in this social media-driven world. But as the Iran negotiations have shown, it has drawbacks when the hyperbole and spin are shown to be hollow.

Finally, Trump’s focus is relentlessly short term. “Strategic patience” – using restraint and timing to achieve his ends – does not appear in his lexicon. Results must be immediate, and the declaration of victory or peace or a deal is what matters – not the actual delivery of those outcomes.

The “deal” to end the conflict in Gaza, struck in October 2025, remains stuck in limbo as Trump’s interest has wandered. The Ukraine war that was to be settled in 24 hours grinds on relentlessly.

Trump’s weaknesses exposed

The war in Iran, in particular, has challenged Trump’s model of diplomacy and exposed its weaknesses. The Iranians refused to “cry uncle”, as he put it, when their leadership was wiped out, their nuclear facilities were pounded by bunker-buster bombs, and their economy was brought to its knees by sanctions.

Instead, they challenged the US to put boots on the ground, closed the Strait of Hormuz to hurt the US economy, and struck its erstwhile allies in the Gulf. They refused to talk to Trump’s envoys – who they distrusted after twice feeling betrayed when the US attacked them mid-negotiation – and they exposed the deception of his constant statements and social media posts claiming agreement had been reached, or victory was at hand.

As a result, Trump has had to rely on third-party intermediaries Pakistan and Qatar to negotiate with the Iranian regime. The UN remains firmly on the shelf, as Trump is resolutely opposed to the political constraints that operating through international organisations might impose on American freedom of manoeuvre. But even so, he has found himself in need of neutral third parties to do the deal that he could not.

Will Trump change? Yes and no. He has no ideological constraints, only pride and faith in his own abilities. So he could change course at any moment. But his antipathy to multilateralism and traditional diplomacy are unlikely to disappear.

The world at large is already adjusting to these new ways of doing diplomatic business. Some are seeking out “Trump whisperers” such as Nato’s chief Mark Rutte, or Maga-friendly lobbyists that, for example, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo have employed to secure US support for their respective struggles against Boko Haram and Rwanda.

Others are picking envoys to liaise with the likes of Witkoff and Kushner. The UK’s pick for this role is national security advisor Jonathan Powell, whose contacts with Witkoff played a significant part in calming US relations with Ukraine. As bilateral diplomacy replaces multilateral, the air miles of such envoys multiplies exponentially, while small countries are cut out of the action.

And yet, Trump’s last two summits with Putin and Xi yielded little – and he found himself spending more time at the latest G7 summit in France than at previous ones. Perhaps, the US president has found he needs some friends after all.The Conversation

Nicholas Westcott, Professor of Practice in Diplomacy, Dept of Politics and International Studies, SOAS, University of London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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