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Texas Republicans' betting on MAGA messaging may soon pay a price

Far-right talking points have proven effective in the recent Texas Republican primaries, handing wins to Trump-backed Senate candidate Ken Paxton, attorney general nominee “MAGA” Mayes Middleton (as he likes to be called), and railroad commissioner nominee Bo French. But while MAGA messaging resonates with Republican voters well enough to come out ahead in a primary, according to Houston Pubic Media political columnist Blaise Gainey, that approach is likely to fall flat in the general election this November.

“What we’re seeing is the consolidation of MAGA power,” explained Jon Taylor, a political scientist at the University of Texas at San Antonio. “You’re seeing essentially the last of the old guard being swept away. Anybody who is not 100 percent MAGA, 100 percent committed to Trump, is viewed as disloyal and therefore must be purged.”

According to Gainey, “One of the most obvious examples is Attorney General Paxton’s win over incumbent Sen. Cornyn. A day into early voting, Trump, the leader of MAGA, endorsed Paxton over Cornyn, who claimed to vote with Trump 99% of the time.”

Cornyn’s loss suggests there has been a dramatic shift within the GOP over the past decade. As Texas Southern University political scientist Michael Adams explained, “It sent a clear signal, I think, to the Republican Party that the [George] Bush or the [Rick] Perry wing of the Republican Party — what we know as the institutional Republican part of the traditional wing — I think that has been put to rest.”

These MAGA candidates gathered support by ignoring some of the top issues of the day, like the war in Iran or skyrocketing prices, instead “focusing on hot-button social topics like gender identity, immigration enforcement and stoking fears over Islam.” French, for example, had party leaders calling for his resignation as chair of the Tarrant County GOP after a series of posts they characterized as “bigoted” against Jewish and Muslim people. Republican leadership may not have liked what they saw, but enough conservative voters did for French to eke out a win by around 1 percent.

But, writes Gainey, “While that strategy worked during a Republican primary where only 1.4 million voters participated, political scientist Jeronimo Cortina isn’t sure it’ll be so successful with the general electorate. ‘I don’t know 97 percent of folks that did not participate in the runoff election, whether they are Democrats or Republicans, support that type of rhetoric or not,’ Cortina said.”

“That’s going to be their challenge,” said Nancy Sims, a political scientist at the University of Houston. “They moved so far to the right to win their nominations, that they’re gonna have to live with the commercials they made side-by-side with Trump. All the MAGA promises they made for the general cycle are not gonna be popular with independent voters, in my opinion.” Polls suggest that she’s right, showing that Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico has a slight edge on Paxton. “It looks like Texas may be competitive for the first time in 30 years,” Sims said.

All of this poses a huge opportunity for Democrats.

“Texas is not truly a red state,” explained Taylor. “It’s a low-turnout state in which you’ve got Democrats who, if they would ever get off their butts and actually mobilize, could actually win elections.”

Trump's 'collusion and fraud' torn apart as retired judges break silence

President Donald Trump's attempt to create an "anti-weaponization" slush fund prompted dozens of retired judges to speak out against him, and as one ex-federal prosecutor argued for The Hill, this shows the true extent of the "collusion and fraud" inherent in the plan.

James D. Zirin is a legal analyst who previously served as a federal prosecutor for the Southern District of New York. In a new piece for The Hill published Tuesday, he invoked a classic turn-of-phrase to emphasize the severity of the pushback against Trump's slush fund from these judges.

"'Fifty million Frenchmen can’t be wrong' was a delightful 1927 ditty, sung by the immortal Sophie Tucker, contrasting the laissez-faire culture of 1920s Paris with the strict, puritanical attitudes in the U.S.," Zirin explained. "Over time, the saying morphed into a general idiom often used to suggest that if a massive number of people believe in or do something, there must be some undeniable truth to it. If 50 million Frenchmen couldn’t be wrong, nor could 35 former federal judges. They say the key to longevity is not to retire but to remain engaged. Retired judges enjoy a certain mystique, and when they talk, everyone listens."

Zirin noted how, two weeks ago, Florida Federal Judge Kathleen Williams "gave weight to a motion from 35 former federal judges arguing that Trump’s bogus settlement of his meritless lawsuit against the IRS was a fraud on the court." In a filing to Williams, the judges had urged the court to reopen the case and examine whether or not the settlement — in which Trump had effectively sued and settled with himself — constituted a case of fraud.

"The purported ‘settlement’ that was publicly disclosed after this court dismissed this matter raises profound questions about the parties’ candor toward the court and manipulation of the judicial system, which threatens to undermine confidence in the administration of justice," a lawyer representing the bipartisan group of judges wrote.

Leading the charge for this group, Zirin explained, was Michael Luttig, "a rock-ribbed conservative "who was appointed to the federal appeals court bench by George H.W. Bush in 1991 and served until 2006, when he was passed over as a potential Supreme Court nominee.

"The courageous voices of the federal and state judges,” Luttig said. “Are the only voices that can and have been heard above the deafening din of partisan political rancor that is literally threatening our nation.

”The former judges argued that the purported settlement of the case was the product of collusion and fraud," Zirin wrote. "With Trump suing and settling with himself, that is self-evident. But the argument lands with singular force coming from the 35 retired judges. Larger numbers of former judges have filed briefs in other cases. In a Supreme Court case on immigrant protection, more than 175 former judges filed a brief last March arguing that the court’s shadow docket orders are not binding precedent if the justices do not justify their reasoning."

Republican who defied Trump over Epstein braces for defeat in deep red stronghold

A series of recent GOP primaries found incumbents who President Donald Trump was upset with — including Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana), and at least five Indiana state lawmakers — losing to Trump-backed MAGA candidates. One of the things that is driving tensions between Trump and other Republicans is his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, and according to Newsweek reporter Hugh Cameron, those tensions are playing out in deep red South Carolina.

"The group of Republican lawmakers who, last year, split with President Donald Trump over the handling of the Justice Department's files on Jeffrey Epstein seem set to suffer another defeat, this time in South Carolina's gubernatorial primary," Cameron explains in Newsweek. "Rep. Nancy Mace, one of the most-outspoken Republican advocates for releasing the Epstein files, is trailing in a crowded GOP primary field after Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. Mace argues her support for greater transparency in the Epstein case was the key factor behind Trump's decision to back her rival."

Mace recently told Politico, "That's the sole reason I didn't get the endorsement: because I voted to release the Epstein files — and I'm OK with that. I've worked very hard to expose p– –, and child r– –, and sex trafficking in my state, and will continue to do it regardless of the outcome of the election.”

Similarly, Mace told CNN, "If the price of an endorsement was to not vote to lease the Epstein files, that is a price I am unwilling to pay."

Mace's comments, according to Cameron, "underscore lingering tensions inside the Republican Party over the handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files."

"The bipartisan push to release government records related to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein became an unexpected source of friction between Trump and a group of Republican lawmakers who demanded greater transparency," the Newsweek journalist notes. "Although Trump signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act, directing the Justice Department to release all unclassified records tied to the case, critics argued the disclosures were incomplete and moved too slowly. Some of the loudest complaints came from Republicans who had championed the legislation, creating a rare public disagreement between Trump and members of his own party."

Cameron continues, "At times, Trump dismissed the controversy as a 'hoax' driven by political opponents, while transparency advocates continued pressing for additional disclosures. The dispute never developed into a broader rebellion against the president, but it exposed divisions within the GOP and raised questions about how far lawmakers were willing to challenge Trump on an issue that remained highly sensitive among Republican voters."

Susan Collins isn't safe even if Platner implodes: report

Democrats are betting controversial candidate Graham Platner is their best chance to unseat U.S. Senator Susan Collins, the Maine Republican who has not lost a race since she first won her seat in 1996. But scandal could sink his campaign even after Tuesday’s primary, handing Collins a clearer path to a sixth term.

Bloomberg opinion columnist Ronald Brownstein writes that the voting will “illuminate the one thin path that could allow” Democrats to “avoid that fate.”

“Polls show that Collins and Trump are both weaker in Maine today than during her last reelection in 2020, which could allow even Platner to beat her,” Brownstein writes. “Yet the oysterman’s many vulnerabilities increase the odds that, as during that 2020 race, Collins could improbably survive in this blue-trending state.”

According to Brownstein, Platner’s scandals may not be his only vulnerability.

He needs to win over Maine voters who disapprove of Trump. “In the 2018 and 2020 elections, the exit polls found that every Democratic Senate incumbent and challenger nationwide won at least 89% of voters who disapproved of Trump — except in Maine, where Sara Gideon, Collins’ 2020 opponent, won only 71% of them.”

A recent poll, taken before his latest scandal, shows Platner only winning 74% of them.

Brownstein explains that if Platner were to decide to drop out of the race by July 13, the Democratic Party would be allowed to replace him on the November election ballot. He notes that currently running for governor are several candidates who likely would meet the expectations of Platner’s coalition.

One of three candidates currently running for governor could replace Platner should he drop out before the July deadline.

“Former State Senate President Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger with deep working-class roots, has been endorsed in the governor’s race by the state AFL and Senator Bernie Sanders and would probably be the easiest replacement for Platner supporters to accept,” says Brownstein. “Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (who has greatly raised her stature since she lost her 2014 Senate race to Collins) and former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree (who might be the strongest statewide candidate of the three) also have many liberal supporters.”

Maine progressive activists in their conversations with Brownstein remain dedicated to Platner. “But each offered only praise for Jackson, Bellows and Pingree.”

The stakes for Democrats are high — and not only for Maine. Collins’ seat is considered must-win if Democrats are to retake control of the Senate.

“If Democrats don’t flip Maine, they will need to capture Senate seats in at least three states that Trump won by double digits in 2024,” says Brownstein. “That’s a daunting task.”

Laverne Cox breaks silence on breakup with MAGA boyfriend

Laverne Cox published a new book where she's revealing details about her relationship with a pro-Donald Trump police officer.

Transcendent, the new book out Tuesday, describes her five-year relationship with the cop and what happened when they ultimately ended the relationship, The Root reported.

“My ex-boyfriend, when we met five years ago, at the height of the pandemic, he was 26, and I was 48. He was a blonde-haired, blue-eyed MAGA Republican voter who is a New York City police officer,” she said in a video to Instagram when she talked about it.

Cox isn't merely a proud transgender woman; she's also solidly progressive.

At first, he lied about what he did for a living. After about 3-and-a-half years, "his politics and his head examined became clear."

During an episode of "The View," Cox said that he was seemingly good to her, even "better" than some previous relationships. Over time, however, she said she was exposed to parts of his "true colors" that weren't acceptable to her.

“People show you who they are eventually,” Cox said. She added that she never intended to fall in love with him or develop any deep feelings. By the time she understood where he was politically, she was in too deep.

“We didn’t plan to fall in love, but we did. Later, his political affiliation became obvious, but I’d already had feelings for him and wanted to see him as a human being, beyond that,” she said.

Over time, “his politics and his unexamined life became clear," she added.

“I love him, but I love myself more, and staying in this relationship, I betrayed myself — not just my political values, because, in theory, I’d like to believe we can have relationships across political differences. But there was a value difference,” she explained.

“Fascism is not consistent with my values. I am an anti-fascist. I never adopted any of my ex’s politics.”

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Sluggish World Cup ticket sales hit Trump where it hurts: his crowd size obsession

President Donald Trump is famously obsessed with crowd size to the point where he will outright lie about visibly poor attendance. With that in mind, the Daily Beast noted on Tuesday that he is poised to be “humiliated” by dismal World Cup ticket sales.

According to a new analysis by the Financial Times, “almost 180,000 tickets for the tournament, which kicks off on Thursday, are still available on FIFA’s official resale portals. FIFA also has around 15,000 tickets for group-stage matches unsold on its website.” As a result, “scenes of thousands of empty seats in stadiums across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico could prove particularly embarrassing for the crowd-size-obsessed Trump.”

The same analysis found that the U.S. is having a particularly difficult time selling tickets. For example, there are nearly 5,000 tickets still available via FIFA’s resale portal for the USA-Paraguay opener in Los Angeles mere days before the whistle blows.

Experts say there are a number of factors contributing to poor sales, but the key problem involves sky-high, unpredictable pricing. Even with resale price cuts, median ticket costs are upwards of $800, and it’s worse when it comes to new ticket sales, with the lowest direct-from-FIFA price at $1,120.

“For the first time,” explains the Daily Beast, “FIFA has used so-called ‘variable pricing’ — also known as dynamic pricing, in which ticket prices rise or fall based on demand — at a World Cup. This has seen prices for some tickets, such as Thursday’s World Cup opener between Mexico and South Africa at the iconic Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, skyrocket to as much as $3,000. Even tickets for lower-profile games in the 48-team tournament still cost at least $140. As noted by The Athletic, the ticket price for any game at any stage of the 2026 World Cup is higher than the equivalent ticket at any previous tournament.”

As a result, New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport and New York Attorney General Letitia James have launched an investigation into FIFA’s ticketing and pricing practices.

Whatever the investigation turns up, the games this year are going to be sparsely attended. This isn’t going to look great for FIFA president Gianni Infantino, who famously — and according to some reports, embarrassingly — bestowed Trump with FIFA’s first “peace prize,” which was widely viewed as an effort to curry the president’s favor after he failed to win the Nobel Peace Prize. It’s also sure to rile Trump, who has a famous crowd size fixation.

As the Daily Beast explains, “Throughout his political career, Trump has desperately tried to prove his popularity by citing crowd sizes at his rallies and other public events. This obsession dates back to his 2017 inauguration, which the president claimed had the highest-ever attendance for such an event despite photos proving otherwise. Trump has also frequently inflated the size of the crowds at his political rallies, sometimes by tens of thousands of people.”

Trump's nervous tics and body language betray him during disastrous interview

President Donald Trump prompted a firestorm of commentary and speculation after he stormed out of a major interview, but as one certified psychologist argued, his body language also exposed things about his agitated mental state.

On Sunday, NBC News's Meet the Press aired an interview with Trump conducted by Kristin Welker, in which, among other things, she pressed him about the lack of evidence for his longstanding claims that elections in the U.S. are rigged against Republicans. Trump, after growing increasingly frustrated over the tough questions, cut off the interview early, saying that Welker was either "crooked" or "stupid" before storming out.

Much has already been speculated based on this blow-up from Trump, including from Dr. John Paul Garrison, a licensed clinical and forensic psychologist, who maintains a popular YouTube account, "Dr. G Explains," where he gives forensic breakdowns and body language analyses for over 700,000 subscribers. While he typically focuses on true crime stories, he also delves into politics, and recently released a video breaking down Trump's body language during his interview with Welker.

At the start of the interview, Garrison noted that "most" of Trump's visible behaviors were "pretty standard" and in line with his typical demeanor. He did note one brief movement of Trump's mouth that could potentially indicate a change in the president's motor control, but said that not much could be made of it for now. What he did put particular emphasis on, however, was the sound of rain during the interview, as it was being conducted in a Wisconsin barn during a period of extended downpours.

Garrison argued that as the noise from the rain picked up and became more intense, Trump had a harder time focusing and concentrating on the questions from Welker. While stressing that nothing could be said for sure, he argued that Trump having a greater difficulty dealing with background noise could be a sign that he suffered a neurological episode at some point.

From that point, Garrison noted numerous signs that Trump was growing more and more agitated, including him furrowing his brow, bearing his teeth and putting extra emphasis on certain words, eventually escalating to the point of "real anger" and "real fury." While he concluded that it was typical for Trump to be testy with the press, Garrison argued that he showed an "unusual" level of anger during the interview, and suggested that he might having "a harder time than he used to" dealing with things like the background noise from the rain.

Another medical expert and content creator, speech and language pathologist "Hilary M.A. CCC-SLP," also argued that the weather might have been having an outsized effect on Trump's mood, suggesting in a recent video that he was exhibiting symptoms common in dementia patients, who struggle to keep track of the time of day during periods of extended gloomy weather.

Supreme Court's conservative rift exposed as 2 right-wing justices clash

Many U.S. Supreme Court rulings of the 2020s are coming down along strict partisan lines, with the six GOP-appointees justices on one side and the three Democratic appointees comprising the dissent. But in Pitchford v. Cain, a 5-4 ruling handed down on May 28, the majority united the three Democratic appointees (Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson) with Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, while the conservative dissenters were Justices Neil Gorsuch, Samuel Alito, Amy Coney Barrett and Clarence Thomas. And according to Reason's Damon Root, the decision showed a major disagreement between Donald Trump appointees Gorsuch and Kavanaugh.

"On the surface, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh share much in common," Root explains in the libertarian-oriented Reason. "They are both judicial conservatives, both self-professed originalists, both former federal appellate court judges with respected records, and both were appointed to the U.S. Supreme Court by the same president. Yet there are certain legal issues that have brought out notable differences between them. The Supreme Court's recent 5-4 decision in Pitchford v. Cain offers a fascinating case in point."

In Pitchford, the Roberts Court examined the precedent in 1986's Batson v. Kentucky, which said that prospective jurors cannot be excluded from juries solely on the basis of their race.

"In Pitchford, the Supreme Court was tasked with deciding whether Terry Pitchford's rights were violated when a lower court decided that his defense lawyer had waived the right under Batson to challenge the prosecution's supposedly race-neutral rationales for peremptorily excluding four out of five prospective black jurors in the case," Root notes. "Writing for the majority, Kavanaugh, joined by Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson, held that Pitchford's constitutional rights had indeed been violated…. Writing in dissent, Gorsuch, joined by Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, and Amy Coney Barrett, denied that any such injustice had occurred."

Root argues that Pitchford wasn't the first time that Kavanaugh and Gorsuch disagreed on criminal justice matters.

"Normally, when it comes to matters of criminal justice, Gorsuch is the one with the reputation for being more sympathetic to criminal defendants," the libertarian journalist observes. "Kavanaugh, meanwhile, generally has a reputation for being the more reliable vote in favor of law enforcement. But this case flipped the script. Here, thanks to an opinion by Kavanaugh, written over Gorsuch's dissent, a Death Row inmate's conviction and death sentence were tossed out. This time around, it was Kavanaugh, not Gorsuch, who gave the civil liberties side the win."

Trump's latest meltdown reveals something darker than usual

President Donald Trump's blowup at "Meet the Press" host Kristen Welker on Sunday signals something far darker than his usual outbursts at female reporters.

Trump stormed off the set of an interview in Wisconsin after he was pressed for "evidence" that the California primary elections were rigged. Trump had claimed that clearly they were rigged because Los Angeles County continues to count ballots. Once Welker asked Trump for evidence, he quickly asserted she simply had to "look" to find it.

Speaking to tech writer Gil Duran, author of The Nerd Reich, The New Republic's Greg Sargent said it puts Trump's actions into perspective and explains why he was so furious when his reality was questioned.

California allows any ballots postmarked on Election Day to be counted. So, it typically takes about a week for all mailed-in ballots to arrive at the election location, plus a few more days for processing.

"This is typical Trump," said Duran. "He’s been doing this for years and years. He tries to create his own version of reality and insist that other people agree with it. The main enemy, the main challenge that Republicans have in California, is called simple math."

Trump thinks that Republican Spencer Pratt should have won the race, but there are fewer than 20 percent of registered voters in Los Angeles County. They're only 25 percent of the state. Pratt has already outperformed that number, but it doesn't mean he is anywhere close to a win.

Meanwhile, Steve Hilton's numbers actually look good when it comes to making it through the primary.

"But this is important to Trump because Trump’s brand is about winning," said Duncan. "He can’t accept that his party and his politics are so unpopular in California. So in order to maintain his winning image, he creates this counter-reality in which it’s all because of fraud on the part of the Democrats and that he would have actually won. He said, actually, in 2020 that he would have won the race if Jesus had been allowed to count the votes, whatever that means."

Trump and other Republicans have long claimed that California is only a Democratic state because of cheating. There's no evidence to prove it. Even Arnold Schwarzenegger said in 2007 that the California Republican Party was dying at the box office, Duncan recalled.

Sargent thinks that Trump's anger is coming from the fact that someone he endorsed, like Pratt, is losing. Durant affirmed that the early votes always break for Republicans because they vote in person. About 80 percent of California voters cast mail-in ballots. So those ballots coming in after the fact are more likely to break for Democratic candidates.

"And so what Trump is doing is exploiting this simple, very well-known mechanism. We all knew that the Republican numbers go down. [He’s exploiting it] to create a false narrative for the MAGA audience, to continue this kind of complaint of fraud and thievery that he’s so fond of. That’s all it is. It’s a very simple mechanism. You take the early returns, you claim that any deviation from those early returns is evidence of a crime of some kind. And that’s pretty much it," Duncan said.

As of Tuesday morning, about 81 percent of the votes have been counted in Los Angeles County.

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Trump's economy grows on borrowed money as household debt hits 2008 crisis levels

US economic growth is picking up again after a slowdown towards the end of 2025. According to price data released on May 28, US GDP grew by 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. This is despite energy prices rising and consumer confidence falling since the US president, Donald Trump, went to war with Iran in February.

Confronted by higher prices for gasoline and a range of other everyday products, US households are spending more in total, rather than cutting back on their purchases. This defies the many economic forecasters who expected that paying more for the basics would discourage consumers from spending money on less essential items, holding back expenditure and GDP growth overall.

Kevin Hassett, the director of the US National Economic Council, has hailed the rise in consumer spending – and the associated surge in borrowing – as signs of an economic boom. It seems hard to argue that people are better off if they are having to pay more for the same goods and services as before, and are taking on more short-term debt to fund the extra spending.

Hassett is statistically correct, however. If people pay more for everything, and the higher prices are not entirely matched by extra cost for producers, more value is being created in the economy and GDP will rise in real terms. To the extent that higher bills are affordable to consumers and generate more profit for producers, the cost of living crisis may actually be promoting GDP growth in the US.

This contradicts the conventional economic opinion that views inflation as harmful to economic growth. But growth can happen under these conditions when consumers cannot or will not switch away from goods or services whose price rises faster than average.

This effect has long been visible in performing arts and other creative industries. These industries depend on individuals who, even with technical help, are unable to keep producing more in a day without losing quality.

While audiences often complain about the ever-rising cost of tickets for live music or sport, these events still sell out. So long as audiences keep paying, the real output of these industries keeps growing, even if there is no increase in the number of matches or concerts played.

Uneven growth

There are other reasons why recent GDP growth has not made the average US household feel better off, or revived the fortunes of Trump and his governing Republican party. Polling by the Economist suggests that 58% of Americans currently disapprove of Trump. This makes him the most unpopular US president since 2009, when Barack Obama was grappling with intense public anxiety over the global financial crisis, despite the uptick in growth.

GDP is a measure of total economic output. It is calculated by adding up the sum of all final incomes earned within a country’s borders, including wages, profits and taxes on imports. The calculation does not account for how much – or how little – individuals receive.

Much of the recent gain in the US has flowed to people already high up the income and wealth scale, shifting the distribution of GDP from wages towards profits. Expectation of a continued profit boom is one reason stock markets have continued to rise despite Trump’s tariff regime and wars, as well as other global turbulence since 2021.

At present, US growth is fragile. This is because of its reliance on borrowed money to fuel consumer spending. Household debt in the US was already at levels that trouble some economists before the latest cost-of-living squeeze. Total US household debt is greater now than when it reached crisis proportions in 2008, tipping the US and the world into recession.

US company debt is also higher now than in 2020, when the COVID pandemic began, though it has been declining since 2021 as firms have used recent profits to pay it down. There are fears that companies’ debt-to-income ratio may be higher than officially measured, due to a recent sharp rise in private credit. This form of debt is not monitored or regulated as heavily as debt from traditional sources.

The situation for indebted households and firms will improve if interest rates fall, as Trump has demanded from his newly nominated Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh. But financial markets are anticipating the opposite, as higher prices and government borrowing generate inflation that typically pushes interest rates up.

This leaves it doubtful that the bright start to US growth in 2026 can last through the rest of the year. Any rises in borrowing costs or a fall in stock markets would begin to squeeze consumer spending and business investment, even if the high oil prices have subsided by then.The Conversation

Alan Shipman, Senior Lecturer in Economics, The Open University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Nobel economist warns MAGA egos are driving America’s decline

As Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman pointed out on Tuesday, President Donald Trump keeps making decisions that have experts “mystified” by their illogic. These actions, writes Krugman, are not only motivated by little more than “fragile MAGA egos,” but are effectively “undermining America.”

For example, Trump’s approach to drone warfare — or lack thereof. As Krugman writes, “Drones have rapidly transformed modern war. The U.S. military, the most sophisticated, best supplied force in history, has been humiliated by Iran, largely thanks to Iran’s effective use of inexpensive drones to menace shipping, energy production, and even U.S. bases. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s growing superiority in drone warfare is increasingly giving it the upper hand over Russia.”

In this context, “shouldn’t the United States be eager to make a drone deal with Ukraine, benefiting from its technology and expertise? Apparently not. The Hill reports that Donald Trump has been dragging his feet on such a deal, quoting U.S. military analysts who say that they don’t understand the delay and that they are ‘mystified.’ But I assume that they’re being disingenuous and prefer to avoid saying the obvious. In fact, Trump’s unwillingness to make a deal that would clearly benefit America’s national interest is no mystery at all.”

Then there’s “Trump’s virulent opposition to green energy."

“In the past few years,” explains Krugman, “radical declines in the cost of solar power, wind power, and batteries — which solve the problem that the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow — have made renewables the most cost-effective way to generate electricity. By contrast, coal is completely unviable. Yet Trump is trying to block renewable energy projects any way he can and has just invoked wartime authority to spend $700 million subsidizing new power plants using ‘clean, beautiful’ coal.”

Krugman explains that part of Trump’s motivation is financial, as fossil fuel producers put big money into Trump’s 2024 campaign. At the same time, however, “clean energy has become a bogeyman in the culture wars: mining and burning coal are considered ‘manly’ activities, while renewable energy is portrayed as woke and effeminate. Real men don’t worry about black lung and airborne particulates, let alone climate change. So a combination of big money and fragile male egos drives Green Derangement Syndrome.”

Getting back to drone warfare, Krugman suggests that Trump’s hesitancy toward the technology stems from a combination of money and male ego.

On one hand, “America has a huge, highly profitable defense industry, dedicated to a suite of technologies that are rapidly being rendered obsolete, as $4 million Patriot missiles, that take years to build, are being used to shoot down $35,000 Shahed drones that can be manufactured in months. So it wouldn’t be surprising if defense-industry interests are playing a significant role in the Trump administration’s refusal to admit that the rules of war have changed — the same way that fossil fuel companies have campaigned against the new realities of energy technology. After all, a deal with drone-savvy Ukrainians would mean less money going to US defense contractors.”

At the same time, “recognition of the drone revolution in warfare by Trump and his inner circle would require that they abandon their fantasy of macho military power. Pete Hegseth has been purging the military of capable officers — especially Blacks and women — he considers insufficiently loyal to Donald Trump. Beyond loyalty tests, however, he has exalted the importance of ‘warrior ethos’ and physical fitness, as if he were leading the 300 Spartans rather than a high-tech military in an age of drones and electronic warfare.”

Krugman says this is the same logic driving Trump’s other outdated military endeavors. As Krugman writes, the president “is in love with big, expensive weapons as symbols of virility and power. He’s still pushing for giant ‘Trump-class’ battleships, even though they would be sitting ducks in a modern war. Just ask the Ukrainians, who have used missiles and naval drones to force Russia’s once-vaunted Black Sea Fleet to cower in a fortified refuge. But Trump doesn’t want to give up his fantasies.”

In Krugman’s estimation, “There is no mystery about why Trump refuses to make a drone deal with Ukraine. Never mind the national interest. In military strategy as in energy policy, Trump is betraying America in the service of money and machismo.”

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