Economist Paul Krugman: America is a 'nation on the mend' — despite 'grim narratives' claiming otherwise

Four years ago, in January 2020, media outlets were reporting on a disturbing new disease that had emerged in Mainland China. The disease came to be called COVID-19, ultimately killing more than 1 million people in the United States and over 6.8 million people worldwide (according to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore).

Liberal economist Paul Krugman, in his first New York Times opinion column of 2024, stresses that despite all the damage that COVID-19 inflicted — economically and otherwise — the U.S. is now a country "on the mend." But Krugman argues that whether "grim narratives" or good news triumphs in the 2024 presidential election remains to be seen.

"Our economy and society have, in fact, healed remarkably well," Krugman writes. "The big remaining question is when, if ever, the public will be ready to accept the good news. In the short run, of course, the pandemic had severe economic and social effects, in many ways wider and deeper than almost anyone expected. Employment fell by 25 million in a matter of weeks. Huge government aid limited families’ financial hardship, but maintaining Americans' purchasing power in the face of a disrupted economy meant that demand often exceeded supply, and the result was overstretched supply chains and a burst of inflation."

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The economist continues, "At the same time, the pandemic reduced social interactions and left many people feeling isolated. The psychological toll is hard to measure, but the weakening of social ties contributed to a range of negative trends, including a surge in violent crime."

Unemployment in the United States, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is way down from what it was during the worst of the pandemic. The BLS reported an unemployment rate of 3.7 percent for November 2023.

Regardless, many Republicans have been claiming that the U.S. economy is in terrible shape and pointing the finger at President Joe Biden.

Krugman notes that "FBI data shows that violent crime has subsided" and is "already back to 2019 levels and appears to be falling further."

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But "public perceptions," Krugman says, can be "notoriously at odds with reality."

"The big question, of course, is whether grim narratives will prevail over relatively sunny reality in the 2024 election," Krugman argues. "There are hints in survey data that the good economic news is starting to break through, but I don't know of any comparable hints on crime. In any case, what you need to know is that America responded remarkably well to the economic and social challenges of a deadly pandemic."

Krugman adds, "By most measures, we're a nation on the mend. Let's hope we don't lose our democracy before people realize that."

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Read Paul Krugman's full New York Times column at this link (subscription required).