'The base is not secure for Donald': Analysis shows where Trump is 'weakest' after GOP primary

Although former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley failed to surpass Donald Trump in the Republican primary, the ex-UN Ambassador did manage to expose where the former president is "potentially weakest" ahead of the November election, according to a Politico analysis by Lisa Kashinsky and Jessica Piper.

"The base is not secure for Donald Trump,” GOP strategist and co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project Mike Madrid told Politico. He insisted that President Joe Biden "is in a much stronger position appealing to Republican base voters than he was four years ago."

Kashinsky and Piper note that while "Haley’s appeal" to Republican voters in Vermont, DC, New Hampshire and Utah was evident, those places "hardly dented Trump in the primary." However, the numbers there do show "very specific vulnerabilities for the former president in the run-up to the general election."

READ MORE: 'There is a place for them in my campaign': Biden makes his case to Haley supporters

Furthermore, the Politico reporters note, "Even as prominent Republicans quickly coalesced behind Trump, exit surveys showed Haley’s big appeal to voters in Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina was as a vote against the former president."

Kashinsky and Piper report:

A POLITICO analysis of primary voter data reveals that Trump struggled in places where a majority of adults are college-educated, including in key suburbs that doomed his campaign in 2020. And preliminary exit polling in North Carolina, Virginia and California on Tuesday showed more than two-thirds of Haley voters in each state weren’t committed to voting for the likely GOP nominee in November. Where Haley voters go — to Trump, Biden, another candidate or no candidate at all — could decide key races across the country.

Furthermore, the news outlet reports "at least one outside group that worked to convince independents and Democrats to vote for Haley as a rebuke of Trump is now encouraging those same voters to cast ballots for Biden in November."

However, Kashinsky and Piper also note:

Trump’s super PAC sought to frame overall GOP primary turnout as a rejection of Biden. 'We anticipate a broad range of voters to turnout for President Trump’s landslide victory in November,' said Alex Pfeiffer, communications director for MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump super PAC. And Republicans skeptical of Trump’s weaknesses have argued Haley’s best performances were largely a product of open primaries, where independent and even Democratic-leaning voters crossed over to vote against Trump. Some of those voters likely did boost Haley in states like Vermont.

But those independent and Democratic-leaning voters become more important in a general election — not less. And Trump’s weak performance in these suburban and highly educated counties spells trouble for him in November.

READ MORE: 'Nikki Haley got trounced': Trump mocks his former UN ambassador after she ends campaign

Ex-Rep. David Emery (R-ME) told the news outlet Trump "will get some people back who are more Republican-oriented and find it hard to vote for a candidate who’s not a Republican. But I don’t think that is anywhere near the majority of her supporters." Kashinsky and Piper emphasize the former Republican lawmaker originally backed Haley and still has hope for a "viable alternative" to Trump and Biden.

Politico's full analysis is available at this link.