George Will thinks 'remarkably urbanized' Texas might be in play for Dems in 2026 — here’s why

On Tuesday, July 1, former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) announced that he is seeking the Democratic nomination in Texas' 2026 U.S. Senate race. This won't be Allred's first Senate run: in 2024, he ran against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, losing by 9 percent.

It remains to be seen who Allred will be running against in the general election if he becomes the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is facing an aggressive primary challenge from far-right Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and some polls are showing Paxton ahead.

Paxton is a highly divisive figure in Texas, even on the right. And conservative Washington Post columnist George Will believes that Texas' 2026 U.S. Senate race might be in play for Democrats if Paxton becomes the nominee.

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In Texas, Democrats perform well in large urban centers and in some congressional districts — liberal firebrand Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) is well-liked on the left — but struggle in statewide races. In a 4th of July column, Will argues that Paxton might become the first Texas Republican in decades to lose a U.S. Senate race.

"Democrats last carried Texas in a presidential election 49 years ago, last elected a U.S. senator there in 1986 and have lost all statewide elections since 1994," Will writes. "Texas Republicans could, however, surrender their considerable advantages and lose the state's 2026 U.S. Senate election."

The Never Trump conservative continues, "John Cornyn, who next year will seek a fifth term, is respected by colleagues, who elected him to be Republican whip from 2013 to 2019. He is judicious: He was a Texas Supreme Court justice. He is conservative: The National Rifle Association and the National Federation of Independent Businesses give him 100 percent ratings. His AFL-CIO rating is 0 percent. Currently, however, Cornyn is polling behind a challenger in next year's Republican primary: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has, to say no more, a checkered past."

Will, describing all the controversy that has surrounded Paxton, cautions that "where there is smoke there is not necessarily fire" but adds that the Texas attorney general's "public career and private financial and personal affairs have generated enough smoke to cover Texas across the 800 miles at its widest points."

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"Furthermore, Paxton is markedly discordant with today's Texas," Will emphasizes. "The state is a far cry from longhorns roaming wide open spaces dotted with oil derricks. It has six of the nation's 25 most populous cities: Houston (4), San Antonio (7), Dallas (9), Austin (10), Fort Worth (13) and El Paso (22). It has the headquarters of 107 of the Fortune 1000 companies, including many non-energy corporations: e.g., AT&T, Tesla, Dell Technologies, Hewlett-Packard, Charles Schwab, and American and Southwest airlines…. It is remarkably urbanized, economically complex and culturally sophisticated."

Will continues, "Paxton is, to be polite rather than — heaven forbid — judgmental, a colorful reminder of Texas' pre-modern past…. Someday, Texas will elect another Democratic U.S. senator. Were (President Donald) Trump to endorse Paxton, whose enthusiasm for Trump has been reciprocated, that day could come two Novembers from now."

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George Will's full Washington Post column is available at this link (subscription required).