'Enormous difference': Analysis demolishes Trump taxes claims

President Donald Trump and some of his allies are claiming that if the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 doesn't pass, middle class Americans can expect a substantial tax hike. But critics of the far-reaching megabill are countering that from a tax standpoint, it mainly benefits the rich — while greatly increasing the United States' federal deficit and causing millions of Americans to lose their health insurance thanks to draconian Medicaid cuts.

In an opinion column published on July 1, MSNBC's Steve Benen tackles Trump's tax-related claims about the Big, Beautiful Bill Act — which passed in the U.S. Senate on July 1, although revisions still need to pass in the U.S. House of Representatives.

At a White House press event in late June, Trump claimed, "If the bill doesn’t pass, there'll be a 68 percent tax increase. Think of that: 68 percent, which would be the largest in history."

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Benen explains, "Trump touted the same line via social media, starting in late May and throughout the month of June. Conservative media outlets have, predictably, echoed the White House's talking point as if it were true. But it's not."

Benen notes that according to analysis from the Tax Policy Center reported by CNN, taxes will increase an average of about 7.5 percent in 2026 — not 68 percent — if Trump's "big, beautiful bill" doesn't pass.

"There is some question as to how, exactly, the president settled on this rather specific statistic," Benen notes. "To be sure, Trump isn't above simply making up a figure out of whole cloth and pretending that it's true, but in this case, there is apparently a prevailing guess about the claim's origins. Evidently, a Tax Policy Center estimate concluded in March that if the Republicans' tax breaks from Trump's first term were allowed to expire — as they are poised to do if the inaptly named One Big Beautiful Bill Act falls short — roughly 64 percent of American households would end up paying more in taxes than they're paying now. Perhaps the president got a little confused and bumped that number up from 64 percent to 68 percent."

Benen continues, "That said, even if the Tax Policy Center's analysis is correct, Trump's claim is still plainly wrong: There's an enormous substantive difference between two-thirds of households paying more in taxes and a 68 percent tax increase. And yet, the bill's principal cheerleader has been peddling this bogus claim, ad nauseam, for the last several weeks."

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Steve Benen's full column is available at this link.