Trump outperforming GOP Senate nominees in key swing states

Many critics of 2024 GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump have argued that as much political baggage as he has— from criminal indictments to Project 2025 to unpopular positions on abortion and Obamacare — his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, should be crushing him with double-digit leads in polls. But in early October, with the election less than five weeks away, many national and battleground state polls are showing a very close race.

Emerson College polls released on October 1, for example, show Trump in a dead heat with Harris in Pennsylvania and ahead of her by 3 percent in Arizona. But Emerson also found that in Arizona's U.S. Senate race, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads far-right MAGA Republican Kari Lake by 11 percent.

In an article published on October 2, Axios reporters Hans Nichols and Stef W. Kight describe a trend: Trump outperforming GOP Senate nominees in key battleground states.

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"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and (National Republican Senatorial Committee) Chair Steve Daines are grappling with an uncomfortable reality: Republican Senate challengers are lagging well behind former President Trump in public surveys," Nichols and Kight explain. "Why it matters: The polling gap has baffled Republican candidates and strategists, who expected it to collapse as November neared. Its persistence is a warning for the Republican high command that a close Trump victory in any given swing state doesn't guarantee a GOP Senate seat — even if it also signals a bloc of still-persuadable voters."

Polling averages, the Axios reporters stress, show Trump to be more competitive than GOP U.S. Senate nominees such as Lake in Arizona, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Sam Brown in Nevada and Eric Hovde in Wisconsin.

Even in GOP-leaning Texas, Trump has had larger leads over Harris than incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz has had over his Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred.

In fact, Allred had small 1 percent leads over Cruz in polls released by Public Policy Polling (PPP)/Prosperous America and Morning Consult in late September. However, Emerson College/The Hill found Cruz with a 4 percent lead around that time, and found Trump leading Harris by 5 percent in Texas.

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This contrast between Trump and GOP U.S. Senate nominees, according to Nichols and Kight, "could herald the return of something McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have seen vanish in the last two presidential races: the split-ticket voter."

Rep. Jim Banks (R-Indiana) told Axios that Trump is "outperforming other Republicans because his base is broader than the traditional GOP coalition."

Meanwhile, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) spokesman David Bergstein told Axios, "Senate Republicans have a roster of deeply flawed candidates, and their lies, scandals and baggage repel voters of every political persuasion, including many Republicans."

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Read Axios' full report at this link.