5 Delusional Right-Wingers Certain That Mitt Romney's Headed for a Landslide Win
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So, as Josh Marshall notes, it's quite possible that Romney can win a majority of “independents” and still lose the election.
2. Karl Rove: Party ID
In Wednesday's Wall Street Journal, Bush's Brain wrote, “It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.”
Desperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.
Here's what's absurd: the idea that anyone is “hanging their hopes” on a single poll. Obama has led Romney in 18 of the last 20 polls of Ohio.
In the poll Rove mentions, you'll also be had-pressed to find any “assumptions.” They asked respondents how they identify themselves. 29 percent said they're Republicans, 37 percent said they're Dems and 30 percent called themselves independents.
3. Joel Pollack: Feel the Christiementum!
Moving down the food chain, we get to Joel Pollack, the “editor-in-chief and in-house council” for Breitbart's Big Government. Pollack decided that Chris Christie's decision to snub Mitt Romney and sing Barack Obama's praise is rock-solid proof that Romney's going to clean Obama's clock next Tuesday. “The truth about Christie’s outreach to Obama is blindingly obvious,” he wrote. “Mitt Romney is now running away with this election, freeing Christie to praise the president without fear that doing so will tip the scales.”
4. Dick Morris: The Pollsters In My Head Say...
Perhaps the best sign for Obama is Dick Morris predicting a “landslide” win for Romney. Morris is arguably the wrongest person in the universe with a mainstream platform (he has a column in The Hill).
But how does he come to this analysis? By inventing poll numbers. Compare and contrast Morris' universe with that compiled by Real Clear Politics' average of state polls.
“His erosion began shortly after the conventions when Indiana (10 votes) and North Carolina (15) moved to Romney (in addition to the 179 votes that states that McCain carried cast this year).”
So far, OK. Indiana is leaning heavily toward Romney. North Carolina is a toss-up, but Romney's leading.
“Then, in October, Obama lost the Southern swing states of Florida (29) and Virginia (13). He also lost Colorado (10), bringing his total to 255 votes.”
Romney is up by 1 point in Florida, which is a toss-up. Virginia is tied. Obama is up by a point in Colorado.
“And now, he faces the erosion of the northern swing states: Ohio (18), New Hampshire (4) and Iowa (6). Only in the union-anchored state of Nevada (9) does Obama still cling to a lead.”
Obama is up 2.3 points in Ohio and by 2 points in New Hampshire and Iowa. Obama's lead in Nevada is similar to his lead in Ohio, at 2.7 points.
“In the next few days, the battle will move to Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (16). Ahead in Pennsylvania, tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, and slightly behind in Minnesota, these new swing states look to be the battleground.”
Remember, this guy gets paid for his “analysis.” It is a few days later, and Obama's up by almost 5 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Michigan – Romney's home state – and 5 points in Wisconsin and Minnesota.
5: Dean Chambers: Unskewed Polls and Nat Silver Trutherism