economic inequality

'The biggest part of the story': Expert reveals why millions of Dem voters stayed home

For the first time in 20 years, a Republican won both the Electoral College and the national popular vote. One political data expert has a theory why several million voters who showed up for President Joe Biden didn't do the same for Vice President Kamala Harris last week.

In an interview with Rolling Stone's Andrew Perez, former AFL-CIO political director Michael Podhorzer broke down the data behind the 2024 presidential election and found several revealing explanations for why Democratic voter turnout collapsed over the last four years. He said one notable data point that was misunderstood by pundits was that the country didn't move right — rather, the winning coalition that sent Biden to the White House was simply absent from the polls.

"Pick any group you have heard about 'moving right,' say non-college voters," he said. "The category, non-college voters, in 2024 is not the same set of individual non-college Americans who cast ballots in 2020. A very disproportionate share of those 2020 non-college Biden voters stayed home. They didn’t move right; they moved away from the political process altogether," Podhorzer said. "The inevitable effect of that is that the non-college voters in 2024 were more Republican, simply because fewer non-college Democrats bothered to vote."

READ MORE: 'Presumptuous and condescending': Latino journalists warns Dems against scolding Hispanics

"To be clear — I’m not saying that there were no conversions — there were, but that’s hardly the biggest part of the story," he continued. "And to be clear this is not meant to suggest that Democrats have nothing to answer for — if anything they have more to answer for, since all they had to do was get them out to vote again."

Podhorzer went on to opine that Democrats failed to maximize their opportunities as the governing majority over the last four years, noting that they "promised to battle for the soul of America and got little done about that." He also assigned blame to the "mainstream media," saying major news outlets "just checked out" in the latest election cycle and failed to properly inform voters about the danger former President (and now President-elect) Donald Trump posed.

"The big difference, what was most alarming this fall, was how much less alarmed everyone was in the media and civil society than they had been four years ago," he said. "Four years ago, we had honestly forthright coverage of how bad Trump was, and very much less this time around. And although there were excellent side-pieces on that, it was as if the people doing the daily reporting about the election didn’t bother to read it, and just covered it like it was a normal election. People were just not as alarmed."

Aside from media coverage and voter patterns, Podhorzer suggested that one big reason voters were happy to let a disruptive force like Trump back into the White House was at how Americans felt more disconnected from their government and public institutions than ever before. He argued that the 2008 financial crisis fundamentally changed the relationship American workers have with their jobs, and that the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting economic instability it caused worsened it.

READ MORE: 'One of the biggest policy changes': This 'grave miscalculation' may have been fatal for Dems

"So you have two parties, two approaches — one which says, 'Yeah, we’ve got to burn this system down,' which, in rhetoric, is appealing. But when they hear, 'I can’t get an abortion,' it isn’t anymore," Podhorzer told Perez. "And then you have the party that is saying, 'We will defeat Trumpism,' telling you that they’re doing it to protect those institutions and that way of life that you have lost your patience with, that you’ve lost your support for. And that’s what this is about — and why it keeps going back and forth between who not-loses elections — because [the parties are] not putting on the political menu what people want to buy."

Podhorzer also cast doubt on the conclusions some pundits have drawn that Democrats weren't properly focused on kitchen-table issues important to the working class, and likewise doubted that Democrats' fortunes would improve with increased emphasis on economic messaging. He observed that the political donor class for both parties was united in their foundational philosophy of undermining government regulation of the private sector, and was pessimistic that the flood of corporate money in elections — that took off after the 2010 Citizens United v. FEC Supreme Court decision — would taper off anytime soon.

"[I]t isn’t a tactical error that we’re in this position. It’s a consequence," he said. ”That is a bipartisan agreement that’s been in place for quite a while, and Citizens United opening up the system to even more billionaire money makes it even more difficult to imagine that changing."

Click here to read Podhorzer's interview with Rolling Stone in full (subscription required).

READ MORE: Democrats had an 'economic populist message' but voters were 'utterly indifferent': columnist

Economic anxiety doesn’t push people to Trump

I was telling you about two recent polls that ask people to rate their personal financial situations. That’s an important question. Instead of being asked what they think of the US economy, and the president’s handling of it, people are asked about themselves and their communities. Difference questions yield different results. When Joe Biden is involved, the economy is bad. When he’s not, it’s good. Indeed, both of the polls that I was telling you about show overwhelming optimism for 2024.

What accounts for this difference? Precisely, who is accountable? Well, the answer is Republicans, that is, poll respondents who self-identify as Republicans. When they are asked about the US economy, and the president’s handling of it, they lie – and drag the president’s average job approval down. The news is that Biden is in trouble! But when they are asked about their personal situations, and that of their communities, they tell the truth. That, however, doesn’t make it to the top of the news.

This facet of polling on the economic mood of the country does not get enough scrutiny by people who can otherwise be trusted to scrutinize it. By this, I don’t mean members of the Washington press and pundit corps, though they are indeed complicit in misinforming the electorate.

I’m talking instead about self-identified leftists, particularly US Senator Bernie Sanders and his legion of progressive followers. They are attuned to material suffering. You’d think that they’d scrutinize the discrepancy in poll results in order to advance, or at least build on, economic policies that are clearly working for most Americans, even most Republicans. Yet they don’t. Sanders even seems to ignore that there’s a difference at all.

In an exclusive interview with The Guardian, the independent senator from Vermont warned that if the president does not more forcefully address the anxieties of working-class Americans that the country risks facing a second Trump administration. “Sanders urged the Democratic president to inject more urgency into his bid for re-election. He said that unless the president was more direct in recognising [sic] the many crises faced by working-class families, his Republican rival would win.”

Housing is one such crisis, Sanders said. “We’ve got to see the White House move more aggressively on healthcare, on housing, on tax reform, on the high cost of prescription drugs,” he said. “If we can get the president to move in that direction, he will win; if not, he’s going to lose. … We hope to make clear to the president and his team that they are not going to win this election unless they come up with a progressive agenda that speaks to the needs of the working class.”

The thing about housing. According to a recent Harris poll (that’s one of the polls I was telling you about), seventy-seven percent “are happy with where they're living — including renters, who have seen their housing costs surge over the last few years and are far more likely than homeowners to describe their financial situation as poor,” wrote Felix Salmon. Nearly two-thirds of renters (63 percent) don’t want a house.

This isn’t to say that housing isn’t a crisis. It is a crisis. (The cost is too damn high, because there’s not enough of it to go around.) But this is to say that, first, that even working-class renters say that they are OK for now, and second, that the high cost of something isn’t necessarily going to push anyone in Trump’s arms. Why are we presuming that?

I can’t say I know for sure, but I can say that this story is old. American leftists have presumed since forever that if democratic-capitalist institutions in the US fail the working class, then it will turn to the false promises of a demagogue, this time Donald Trump. And if that happens, Sanders is warning us, that will be the end of democracy.

It’s a good story, especially the part about the working class turning to a demagogue out of grievances rooted in economic anxiety. But I don’t see why it’s more than a good story. When people are asked about their personal circumstances, they report that they are pretty good, even people who are paying extortionist rents. And when you break it down farther, the people who are really unhappy aren’t really unhappy because of some kind of material suffering. It’s because of politics.

Moreover, these same people – a vast majority of Republican voters – are not attracted to Donald Trump because he promises an economic agenda that speaks to their personal financial situations. Those are already pretty good. Ask them! (Just don’t mention Biden.) Instead, they are attracted to him, because Trump promises to liquidate his enemies, which they take to be theirs. You don’t need to be in the thick of a housing crisis to like it when Trump says that immigrants are poisoning the blood of the country. But you do need to be a racist.

I don’t think Bernie Sanders is a racist, but I do think he’s insufficiently aware of racism’s role in bending downward all polling over the last year on the economic mood of the country. And he’s probably insufficiently aware of its impact on Joe Biden’s job approval, because it doesn’t fit into the story he likes to tell about working-class Americans being oppressed by their capitalist overlords. That might not be so bad if being blind to racism’s role in shaping public opinion of the president did not also hide from public view the president’s very real economic accomplishments. Sanders should be celebrating an economy that’s clearly working for most Americans, even most Republicans. But that might require a change of story.

Here's How Economic Inequality Leads to Starvation Throughout the World

It was a very hot day at the outskirts of Ahmedabad, India, where I met with a group of men and women at a local bus stand. They were itinerant laborers, people who move from one part of India to another in search of work. The city of Ahmedabad in Gujarat has a population of about six million people; among them are about 1.5 million migrants. Official figures from the Indian government suggest that there are 139 million internal migrants in India. This is likely a low figure.

Keep reading...Show less

Chomsky: 'The Republican Party Is the Most Dangerous Organization in Human History'

* This interview originally appeared on the blog of the Institute for New Economic Thinking.

Keep reading...Show less

Rev. Barber: America Needs a Moral Movement

This was a landmark year for building a national moral movement in the United States, both in terms of the challenges we faced and the victories we achieved.

Keep reading...Show less

From Education to Social Programs, Tis the Season to Punish the Poor

Mr. Bumble, the parish beadle who oversees provisions for the poor in Charles Dickens’ Oliver Twist, complains: “We have given away… a matter of twenty quartern loaves and a cheese and a half, this very blessed afternoon, and yet them paupers are not contented…"

Keep reading...Show less

Republicans Are Selling Their Tax Plan on a Platform of Lies

There are a few places where we can already see the gap between what Republicans are claiming their tax plan will do for you and what it will really do that should tell us all we need to know: if they need to lie and misdirect that much to sell the plan, voters definitely shouldn’t be buying. Take the claim that the plan would “lower the tax rate ‘for low– and middle-income Americans’ from 39.6 percent to 35 percent so ‘people can keep more of the money they earn’” … where the “low- and middle-income Americans” in question are earning $450,000 a year. Or take the $1,182 per year tax cut for a family making the median income of $59,000 a year. The reality behind that one gets complicated fast:

But maybe the biggest Republican tax lie is their lie about the likely economic effects of their tax cuts for the wealthy. They say their plan will lead to an economic boom. Brian Beutler explains why we know they’re lying, and not just wrong:

We know we’re 16 years out from the first round of regressive Bush tax cuts, 14 years out from the second round of regressive Bush tax cuts, and 10 years out from those tax cuts failing to secure substantial near-term or long-term growth. After that, the entire economy collapsed. We’re five years out from the 2012 election, which Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan lost on a platform of stigmatizing people who don’t make enough money to pay federal income taxes. We’re four years out from a substantial tax increase (thanks, Obama) that has accompanied a steady economic recovery. We’re two years out from Kansas’ experiment with regressive tax cuts that bottomed out the state’s revenue base and left its finances in ruins. We’re one year out from Trump winning the election despite lying constantly, and one month out from donors threatening to cut Republicans off if they don’t make haste with tax cuts.

There is literally nothing in the recent historical record to undergird the claim that supply-side tax policy is a magical economic elixir. And there’s nothing to suggest Republicans are deluded about this either—after all, even in this golden age of Trumpian deception, Republicans don’t go around gaslighting reporters about the economic miracle in Kansas, or the George W. Bush boom.

But they’re insisting that their latest go-round with the same basic policy idea is going to create that economic miracle. And too many taxpayers hoping for a better future are going to believe them. Maybe not a majority—so far a majority of Americans say the plan will benefit the wealthy—but too many.

Keep reading...Show less

The Mega Rich Are Getting Mega Richer: A Former CEO Exposes the Corruption Behind Their Obscene Paychecks

The following is an excerpt from the new book The CEO Pay Machine: How It Trashes America and How to Stop It by Steven Clifford (Blue Rider Press, May 2017), available from Amazon and IndieBound:

Keep reading...Show less

The Tragedy of 'Mountain Dew Mouth' and the U.S.'s Insane Approach to Dental Care

Mountain Dew, the carbonated fluorescent-green soda that Willy the Hillbilly declared “will tickle your innards” in a 1966 commercial, has long been a staple of Appalachia. It was officially developed in Knoxville, Tennessee, in the mid-1900s, but it has ties to the wheat and rye distilled by Irish immigrants who settled in the region as coal miners during the previous century. Today, coal has left Appalachia, as have a host of other industries that brought economic opportunity. Mountain Dew, however, remains culturally significant. Sarah Baird, a writer who grew up in Eastern Kentucky, recently wrote about the importance of the drink to her sense of identity, saying, “It’s not just a beverage—it’s a portable sense of home.”

Keep reading...Show less

Is John Oliver a Hypocrite on Taxes?

In a 2015 segment on his HBO comedy show, John Oliver defended the IRS and said people shouldn’t hate the agency because it serves the very necessary purpose of collecting the money the government needs to do its job. “If you’re angry about the amount of tax you pay, that’s nothing to do with them,” Oliver said. “That’s determined by a vote in Congress.”

Keep reading...Show less

Once Again, Wall Street Salary and Bonuses Show America's Rich Are Getting Richer as Inequality Deepens

Wednesday’s big news on Wall Street wasn’t that for yet another year its average wage and bonuses put finance employees in the top 1 percent. It was that the Federal Reserve’s third interest rate hike in a decade was fueling a stock rally—meaning there was more money for the already wealthy to grab.

Keep reading...Show less
@2026 - AlterNet Media Inc. All Rights Reserved. - "Poynter" fonts provided by fontsempire.com.