David Jarman

Election forecast: Democrats have a clear shot at a Senate majority — here's how

The 2020 election is rapidly entering the endgame, which means it’s time to resume the Daily Kos Elections Senate forecast. Each week, we’re going to take an in-depth look at the state of play in the Senate, relying heavily on the aggregated polling data at our 2020 Senate portal.  If you’re interested in what’s happening in the Senate, we encourage you to bookmark that page and check on it regularly; you can click on each state on the interactive map, which leads you to Bayesian trendlines for the Senate polls in each state, which are updated every day as new polls come in. But for the slightly-less-obsessive, we’ll be doing weekly summaries of what has changed over each week.

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Trump thinks his pitch to 'suburban housewives' is a winner. In reality, it's aimed at almost no one

With the coronavirus pandemic roaring unchecked, Donald Trump’s deranged Twitter feed has managed to recede into the background somewhat, but he recently broke through his own self-inflicted clutter when he tweeted, “The Suburban Housewives of America must read this article. Biden will destroy your neighborhood and your American Dream. I will preserve it, and make it even better!”

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Election update: Your guide to Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington primaries

We’re entering crunch time in the Democratic primary season, with six more states ready to go on Tuesday, several of which are quite large. While it’s nowhere near as big a deal, delegate-wise, as Super Tuesday was, there will be only two more dates on the calendar on which more delegates will be at stake than this week: the primaries one week from now, on March 17 (when Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio will be up), and then the Northeast primaries on April 28.

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The surprising ways House Democrats' victories came about in 2018

One of the most common intramural arguments that Democrats seem to have is which voters to reach out to in order to try to win close elections: Do you try to turn out “base voters”—usually meant to mean young people and/or people of color—who don’t usually vote at high rates but are likely to vote Democratic if they do vote, which means convincing them to vote at all? Or do you try to win over “swing voters” who tend to alternate between voting Democratic or Republican—where you don’t have to convince them to vote, but you do have to convince them to vote Democratic?

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How's the Economy Where You Live? 3 Interactive Maps Show State-by-State Comparisons


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