Search results for "Biden state of the union"

Why Trump’s State of the Union could give MAGA a 'false sense of security'

President Donald Trump's 2026 State of the Union (SOTU) address is set for this Tuesday night, February 24. Because Trump frequently expresses his opinions via his Truth Social platform, some political voices aren't expecting to hear anything new from him. But Slate's Jim Newell, in an article published the day of the speech, lays out some reasons why a SOTU can have a major impact — and in some cases, a negative one.

To illustrate his point, Newell looks back on two past SOTU addresses: Trump's in 2017 and former President Joe Biden's in 2024.

"Why does this snookering keep happening?" Newell asks. "The State of the Union is a moment when the president can project the exact aura he wants on a grand stage. For Biden, that was vigor. For Trump's first, that was gravitas. They get not only that moment, but an artificial news peg — a chance to reassess whatever narrative is setting in that they don't like. And people keep falling for it by acting as if these speeches are reflections of reality. You're better off trusting the version of the politician you see outside the heavily staged infomercial in the House of Representatives."

After Biden's SOTU in February 2024, many of his allies were convinced that he could go the distance with his reelection campaign and win a second term. But Biden's widely criticized performance during a debate with Trump later that year doomed his campaign, and he ended up dropping out of the race.

"The stakes were unusually high for President Joe Biden in his 2024 State of the Union address," Newell recalls. "Most Americans thought he was too old to run for a second term, but Biden was dead set on doing so….. Biden's team got the headlines they wanted, with his hour-plus speech being described as 'feisty,' 'fiery,' 'energetic' and 'impassioned,' 'rowdy and shouty.' It was all of those things…. Biden hadn't become a younger man overnight, but he gave enough of a performance of energy to temporarily contain Democratic murmurs about his standing for reelection."

Trump's 2017 SOTU, Newell notes, was viewed as his chance to present himself as a more traditional Republican and a "statesman."

"Only old souls will remember," Newell explains, "but there was a moment early in his first presidency when it was an open question as to whether the enormity of the job would humble Trump into becoming something different: that he'd talk less trash, that he’d project gravitas. That he’d become something, in other words, resembling a statesman. That, at least, was an image his speechwriters sought to project in his first joint address in 2017…. Not many days after the speech, Trump was back to his usual self, going on tweet binges about how President Barack Obama had tapped his phones."

A SOTU, the Slate journalist warns, can do damage when it gives "false senses of security."

"Some advice, then, to 2028 candidates for president: Promise to refuse a congressional invitation to address a joint session of Congress, and return Americans their regularly scheduled programming," Newell argues. "That can't hurt."

Trump's push for one-man rule can no longer be denied

The United States is now at war with Iran.

A single person, Donald J. Trump, has released the dogs of war on one of the most dangerous countries in the world — and done it without the consent of Congress or our allies, or even a clear explanation to the American people.

Four days after delivering a State of the Union address in which he boasted of ending eight wars and spent just three minutes discussing Iran and a preference for “diplomacy,” we are now bombing, maiming, and killing.

Anyone who has doubted Trump’s intention to replace American democracy with a dictatorship should now be fully disabused.

I share your despair, sadness, and fear. Even if our president were a wise and judicious man, surrounded by thoughtful advisers with impeccable integrity and wisdom, this would be a highly dangerous move.

Trump is facing the consequences of his decision in his first term to abandon the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated with Iran by Obama and backed by France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China.

Trump walked away from that treaty because it was Obama’s — and he hates Obama because Obama negotiated safeguards against Iran enriching uranium to weapons grade. Obama also got Obamacare through Congress, addressed climate change and nuclear proliferation, and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Obama was a winner. Trump is a loser. Trump cannot stomach this.

But why should America and thousands if not millions of innocent people pay the price of Trump’s egomaniacal stupidity?

Trump claimed in June to have disarmed Iran. He claimed again in his State of the Union last Tuesday to have “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear weapons program (an assertion rejected by the International Atomic Energy Agency).

Since then, Iran has taken steps to dig out the nuclear facilities hit during those strikes and has resumed work at some sites long known to American spy agencies.

But those same spy agencies say there’s no evidence that Iran has made active efforts to resume enriching uranium or trying to build a mechanism to detonate a bomb.

Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium remain buried after June’s strikes, making it nearly impossible for Iran to build a bomb “within days,” as Trump and his lapdogs claim.

Trump says he wants “regime change.” But unlike Venezuela, the Islamic Republic has nearly a million men under arms. Any attempt to overthrow that regime will require American troops on the ground and almost surely inflict mass casualties on Americans and Iranians.

Besides, Trump won a second term promising “no regime change,” and in 2024 he campaigned as “the first president in decades who started no new wars.”

He hasn’t prepared the American people for this.

In his State of the Union, he said Iran has refused to foreswear any nuclear weapons ambitions. Yet just hours before his address, Iran’s foreign minister reaffirmed on X that his country would “under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon.”

Trump noted the Iran regime’s killing of thousands of protesters, but this hardly justifies a war that may cause the deaths of thousands more innocent civilians. (This morning, Iran’s Red Crescent said more than 60 children were killed in the strike on Shajarah Tayyebeh school in the southern town of Minab — a toll that has since been raised to 85.)

Make no mistake. The costs of this war — mayhem and deaths in the Middle East, higher oil prices (as Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz), increased risk of terrorism in Europe and the United States — could be catastrophic.

Yet Americans don’t support this war. They haven’t been told why we’re waging it. Trump’s MAGA base doesn’t want him to engage in regime change. Congress hasn’t voted for this war.

Trump is going to war for himself and his boundless, malicious ego.

Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/

A chess grandmaster says he can see Trump's next moves — and he is scared

Garry Kasparov, a Russian chess grandmaster regarded by some as the world’s greatest chess player, issued a warning on Thursday that he can foresee President Donald Trump’s next moves — and they pose a grave threat to American democracy.

“I wish we could play chess, but unfortunately the games we are discussing now, they are not played by the rules,” Kasparov, who chairs the Renew Democracy Initiative (RDI), told independent journalist Ben Cohen, writing for his anti-extremism Substack The Banter. Kasparov founded the RDI after fleeing Russia due to that nation’s brief democratic era gradually sliding into authoritarianism under President Vladimir Putin.

“I predicted, and unfortunately I was right, as on many other occasions, that Trump would illustrate to Americans that everything, or not everything, most of the things they believed were cornerstones of American democracy are in fact based on customs,” Kasparov told Cohen regarding Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. “It's not coded by laws, it's about traditions. Nobody ever did it. These kinds of arguments never worked against Donald Trump. Nobody could afford hiding their taxes, and the list could grow long.”

During his first term, Kasparov observed, Trump mostly hired “traditional Republicans” who believed sincerely in American democracy and therefore limited the damage he could do, especially after he attempted a coup after losing the 2020 presidential election to then-former Vice President Joe Biden. In his second term, Trump has surrounded himself with loyalists who prioritize pleasing the president over their respecting the Constitution and rule of law.

Yet despite these facts, and Trump’s attempts to steal future elections and silence his opponents, Kasparov warned that the “American public at large” does not seem to take his threat to democracy seriously.

“I was born and raised in the Soviet Union, so I know what the KGB is, not from books but from personal experience,” Kasparov said. “I fought Vladimir Putin in a Russia that was accelerating on the way to becoming another KGB dictatorship. But for most Americans, the Constitution is ironclad. I remember just after Trump's second election, I was a guest on [former US Attorney] Preet Bharara's podcast, and I asked him about a third term. He said, ‘No, no, no, Garry, you're kidding. That's unconstitutional.’ ‘Are you sure?’ He said, ‘Absolutely ironclad.’ I said, ‘Trump will try. He said, not impossible. And he is trying now.’”

Ultimately Trump has produced “a climate of nihilism and tribalism, and we have a lot of people on both sides saying it's my tribe,” Kasparov told Cohen. “The biggest threat is coming from the far right, because Trump is in power, and you don't see anyone on the left who could represent the same threat to democracy. But it's very important that this my-tribe feeling does not overrule the Constitution.”

Kasparov has been a frequent critic of the Trump administration. Last year, after media companies began capitulating to Trump by either seeming to get fired comedians who criticized him (Stephen Colbert), trying to do so (Jimmy Kimmel), getting settlements from news outlets for bogus lawsuits (ABC News, CBS News) and convincing media CEOs to do his bidding (Jeff Bezos from The Washington Post), Kasparov warned that these are signs of Trump aspiring to be a dictator.

“Also notable is this is happening when Trump has record low approval numbers, but his targets don't feel they can depend on democracy-based resistance for the same reason Trump and his gang don't fear it,” Kasparov argued. “Elections and the rule of law don't matter if you don't believe in them.

In 2019, Kasparov elaborated on how Trump’s rise to power reminded him of the type of authoritarianism he opposed in the Soviet Union.

“I’m a post-Soviet citizen,” Kasparov said at the time. “The country of my birth ceased to exist in 1991. We enjoyed less than a decade of tenuous freedom in Russia before Vladimir Putin launched its post-democratic phase. My ongoing attempts to fight that tragedy led to my exile in the United States. Now, my new home finds itself locked in its own perilous battle: a battle to avoid becoming the latest member of the post-truth world.”

He then compared life in the Soviet Union to what Trump is trying to create in the United States.

“Unable to change the facts, Trump and his supporters instead try to shift the debate into an alternate universe where the truth is whatever they say it is today,” Kasparov explained. “Trump repeats the same lies over and over, and it’s hard to say which is more troubling: that his followers don’t realize that they are lies or that they don’t care. Globalization and the internet may have made the world smaller, but now, we’re experiencing a counterattack: the regionalization of truth.”

Trump’s latest screed supports literal traitors to America: DC insider

A former Republican presidential adviser just called out President Donald Trump for promoting treasonous ideas on his social media accounts.

“A gift generated by AI. Except there's a problem — can you count the stars?” Steve Schmidt, who advised President George W. Bush, posted on his Substack on Tuesday. “The star count of the Confederacy. The Confederate flag is, and always has been, the MAGA flag. And so on this — the eve of the Battle of Gettysburg, on the edge of the 250th anniversary of our independence — when a corrupt Supreme Court will decide whether the 14th Amendment means what it says and says what it means.”

The Confederacy consisted of 11 states that illegally seceded from the United States of America in 1860 and 1861 to preserve slavery within their jurisdictions and guarantee that it could be spread to the Western territories acquired during the Mexican-American War (1846-1848). President Abraham Lincoln, who like Trump was a Republican but unlike Trump supported the Constitution over far right elements in the South, ultimately defeated the Confederacy, preserved the Union and emancipated the slaves.

“On that day, this day, Donald Trump has — is — once again raised high the stars and bars, the symbol of treason that killed 800,000 Americans and is a ready replacement for the swastika at European hate rallies,” Schmidt wrote. “It is very simple, and it is what it has been for ten years: on America, or Trump. But know this — any man who would post this abomination is no American president. What he is, is Jefferson Davis's successor. A traitor to American liberty.”

As of 2022, the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) determined there were roughly 2,000 Confederate monuments remaining in the United States.

“While the term ‘domestic terror’ did not exist back then, the actions of those who championed the so-called Lost Cause mirror what we see today,” Lecia Brooks, the SPLC’s Chief of Staff and Culture, wrote to Salon in 2022. “All of this iconography was used as racist props to intimidate and remind African Americans of their place, first and foremost. Their widespread placement allowed the Confederacy to reimagine its treasonous acts as a noble effort while minimizing their brutal role in preserving slavery.”

She added, “The perception of being disrespected, dishonored, rejected, or treated as inferior — what psychological professionals call ‘narcissistic wounds’ — can be powerful drivers of violence.”

Trump’s claim that he won the 2020 presidential election is similar to the Confederacy’s “Lost Cause” mythology, according to experts, because both rely on myths to justify their cause. While the Lost Cause mythology claims that the Confederacy fought for a noble cause rather than being treasonous white supremacists, Trump’s Big Lie holds that the 2020 election was stolen from him even though the president has long claimed that any contest he loses was rigged (including the Emmy Awards for not nominating his reality TV show “The Apprentice,” the 2016 Republican Iowa caucuses and the 2016 popular vote) and his claims about the 2020 election were conclusively debunked by the American legal system.

“Someone should read to him ‘Lost, Not Stolen,’ a 2022 report by eight conservatives (two former Republican senators, three former federal appellate judges, a former Republican solicitor general, and two Republican election law specialists),” conservative writer George F. Will wrote for The Washington Post in February. “They examined all 187 counts in the 64 court challenges filed in multiple states by Trump and his supporters. Twenty cases were dismissed before hearings on their merits, 14 were voluntarily dismissed by Trump and his supporters before hearings. Of the 30 that reached hearings on the merits, Trump’s side prevailed in only one, Pennsylvania, involving far too few votes to change the state’s result.”

Will added, “Trump’s batting average? .016. In Arizona, the most exhaustively scrutinized state, a private firm selected by Trump’s advocates confirmed Trump’s loss, finding 99 additional Biden votes and 261 fewer Trump votes.” Therefore he wrote of Trump, “The man who never alters his opinion is like standing water, and breeds reptiles of the mind.”

Upon taking office in both of his terms, Trump has tried to promote Confederate iconography such as by hanging a portrait of Confederate General Robert E. Lee at the West Point library.

Republicans finally saying the quiet part out loud about a policy they vowed to protect

During his 2024 campaign, now-President Donald Trump insisted that he had no desire to cut Social Security or Medicare. But according to ex-Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley — who served as commissioner for the Social Security Administration (SSA) under former President Joe Biden — mass SSA layoffs being carried out by the Trump Administration and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will make it much harder for the agency to function. O'Malley fears that an "interruption of benefits" will occur.

Trump officials, in response to criticism from O'Malley and others, claim that SSA downsizing is designed to protect Social Security and make the program run more efficiently — not endanger it.

In an article published on August 5, however, Salon's Heather Digby Parton warns that when it comes to "privatizing Social Security," some Trump allies are saying the quiet part out loud — including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

READ MORE: Donald Trump just debunked his own lie — and it should get him sued

"One provision of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' was called 'Trump Accounts,' which are new retirement savings accounts for babies that supposedly will be opened with a $1000 contribution from the federal government," Parton explains. "At an event hosted by Breitbart News, Bessent suggested the accounts would be so popular that people will demand the government replace Social Security with it. 'In a way, it is a backdoor for privatizing Social Security,' he said."

Parton continues, "The White House quickly walked back his comments, saying that they have no intention of privatizing Social Security, yadda, yadda yadda. As Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., said about Bessent's little truth bomb, 'Between Bessent's comments and the harm DOGE has already done to the agency, it's clear Trump was lying all along about protecting Social Security.' Donald Trump, lying? This should come as no surprise."

Privatizing Social Security, Parton notes, is an idea some Republicans were proposing long before Trump's 2016 campaign.

"After his reelection in 2004," Parton recalls, "President George W. Bush declared he would spend his political capital on it. After debuting his plan in the 2005 State of the Union address, he barnstormed the country in support of it — and the idea flamed out like a SpaceX rocket. Apparently, it’s time to try again."

READ MORE: Trump official reminds the world that the US now has a 'national position' on a single word

The Salon journalist continues, "Yes, Republicans staged a full-blown tantrum back in 2023 when President Joe Biden suggested in his State of the Union address that they wanted to cut the program. But nobody believed their denials. ... Promise or no promise, it's clear the GOP has not changed its goal one bit — and the fight to protect Social Security and the social safety net should remain the essential mission of the Democratic Party."

READ MORE: There's a very simple reason why Trump will never release the Epstein files

Heather Digby Parton's full article for Salon is available at this link.

We are not better off now than we were two years ago —not even close

After wiping the lack of sleep from my eyes, and pouring some midnight-black coffee into my overused mug, I fell into my office chair, flipped on my computer, and cautiously waded into my morning newsfeed.

It took me but three seconds to sadly realize that I hadn’t gotten the news I’d hoped for, so I sighed, and hit The New York Times front page to assess the overnight damage.

Here are the gruesome headlines that greeted me:

-Hospitals See Diseases Resurge as Vaccinations Decline
-Extreme Water Shortages in the West
-Hegseth Strikes Female and Black Navy Officers From Promotion List
- Trump backs off Plan for $1.8 Billion Fund That Drew Political Backlash
-Israel Strikes Southern Lebanon
-Trump Announces Stricter Rule For Medicaid Work Requirement

There was no above-the-fold mention of the idiotic, dangerous war in Iran, our rocketing gas prices, or the millions of Americans who are being forced to use credit cards to feed their families or account for through-the-roof healthcare prices because there is only so much bad news that can be squeezed onto a screenshot.

There was nothing about out-of-control inflation, rising interest rates, or the crumbling value of the dollar.

There wasn't a thing about corporate America’s environmental terrorism, and steady assault on our clean air and water.

The endless assaults on our vote, and resurrection of the Jim Crow South were now an active crime scene to be treated with the occasional gory update.

If you are an American out looking for any good news at the moment, you better pack a lunch, and let your loved ones know you might not be returning for dinner.

Our White House and the once pristine grounds that surround it are a metaphor for the wreckage King Trump and his corrupt Republican court have inflicted on what was once the world’s premier democracy.

In just over 16 months, we have been reduced to a budding third-world country that is being crushed by out-of-control billionaires who are in our elections and our homes. They are being provided cover by a bought-off radical Right Supreme Court majority that has no notion of what law and order really means as it protects the insane whims of the convicted felon that appointed half its soulless members.

And here — RIGHT HERE — is where it’s worth reminding everybody that things did not have to be this way and were not this way under the previous administration, which offered a hand up to people in need, and provided millions and millions of good jobs while rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure in every state of the union — not just the red, purple, or blue ones.

Here’s where we must note for the record that while Joe Biden was not a perfect man, he was a patriotic one who spoke of all Americans — Democrats, Republicans and Independents — as being a part of the whole, and did not rip apart large segments of our colorful democratic fabric to ram through a dark agenda.

He was a man of deep faith and conviction, who actually went to church every Sunday.

He spearheaded the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment in U.S. history. All it did among scores of other good things was fight climate change, cap out-of-pocket prescription drug costs for Medicare recipients, and provided $2,000 per year of aid, while enabling Medicare to actually negotiate drug prices.

He pushed through the CHIPS and Science Act which chiefly provided billions in incentives to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing, reduced reliance on foreign supply chains, and celebrated science as a beacon of discovery instead of an enemy of the state.

He expanded minimum wage for federal workers, provided scores of other workers protections, including making good and sure they got the mandatory overtime they deserved for their efforts.

He ended the longest war in history in Afghanistan, after the previous slobbery president had surrendered to the odious Taliban. He stood firmly with Ukraine, and expanded and strengthened NATO to stand against Putin and Russia, not with them.

Our allies across the globe also stood with us back then, instead of turning their backs in disgust and dismay as they do now.

All of this was done during a four-year term that started with a lockdown following a terrible Republican attack on our Capitol, and under the sorrowful cloud of a once-in-a-century pandemic that killed more than one million Americans.

I did not start this piece intending to prosecute such an ardent defense of the Biden Administration, but I am glad that I arrived at this place.

An enormous amount of good was done during his four years, and I look back at them reverently, and with a sinking heart.

We were safe back then.

Were there warts and blemishes? Of course. The record will show a good-hearted, aging man in declining health, who was too stubborn to acknowledge the residue of Father Time, and the toll it had taken on him.

He should have served one term as he promised, and bowed out heroically, to let a younger crusader lead from the front to build on all his good work.

He also had a blind spot the size of Kansas for an attorney general, who simply refused to do the most important thing in his job description: protect America. Instead he dithered while the most dangerous man in the world — the man who had already violently attacked us once — rebuilt his army of Republican Orcs, and readied for another assault to finish us off for good.

In the end, the disgraceful Merrick Garland even refused to protect Biden himself ...

These things are simply unforgivable, because they left all of us exposed, and without protection. Armies are in our streets and masked government agents are shooting us dead.

We have a mad king who demands loyalty instead of earning it, and has no talent for governing and pushing tough legislation through our House and Senate that helps Americans like Biden did.

Trump is a petulant punk and a no-talent negotiator who has used that bought-off Supreme Court he built in his grotesque image, and Mike Johnson’s pathetic GOP House of used playing cards to steamroll his way toward the demolition of our White House, and the use of taxpayer dollars to compensate the lowlifes who attacked us on Jan. 6, 2021.

He’s breaking the backs of working folks in America in myriad ways to include all these damn MAGA farmers, who are currently getting screwed almost as badly as the people of color who tirelessly work their fields just for the privilege of pocketing some chump change, and a leaky roof over their heads.

Trump has proven beyond a shadow of any doubt that he could not only shoot one of his racist supporters in the middle of some street and not lose their vote, but could also swipe their family’s benefits and leave them destitute in that street just to really rub it in.

America is a leaking sewer, and crumbling under the bloated weight of all these hideous billionaires, who are squeezing the life out of us and our budgets.

As we stumble toward one of the most somber Independence Days in history, America is going it alone on the road to nowhere. We aren’t leading from the front, we are falling behind.

Even if you don’t completely share my assessment of America 2026, this much must be acknowledged if you have even a shred of decency and an honest heart: We are not better off now than we were two years ago.

Not even close.

(D. Earl Stephens is the author of “Toxic Tales: A Caustic Collection of Donald J. Trump’s Very Important Letters” and finished up a 30-year career in journalism as the Managing Editor of Stars and Stripes. You can find all his work here, and follow him on Bluesky here.)

Europe prepares for the 'unthinkable' as Trump throws NATO under the bus

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was initially formed as a collective defense against the former Soviet Union (now Russia). European leaders are concerned that, in an era of President Donald Trump, the alliance can no longer be counted on to protect against Russia.

Speaking in early April, Trump called NATO a "paper tiger" and alleged it was "useless." Answering questions from the press, Trump let it slip that "Putin knows that too.” Indeed, Putin has trashed NATO for years and has welcomed the idea of the alliance becoming less effective.

In a piece for The Guardian, Paul Taylor, senior visiting fellow at the European Policy Centre, wrote that Europe is finally beginning to strategize for "the unthinkable."

Congress passed a law that was signed by former President Joe Biden, saying, “the president shall not suspend, terminate, denounce, or withdraw the United States from the North Atlantic Treaty … except by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, provided that two-thirds of the Senators present concur, or pursuant to an Act of Congress.”

But Trump has already made some steps to do exactly that when he withdrew 5,000 U.S. soldiers from Germany. There is now a question about whether Trump is in violation of the law that also includes a provision prohibiting any president from "using any federal funds to support such a unilateral withdrawal without Senate approval (2/3 vote) or a separate Act of Congress." The co-author of the bill is now Trump's Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.

Europe must now craft a "Plan B" for life in a world in which the US is no longer willing to help defend its allies against a Russian invasion.

Countries have already begun to step up on their financial and political responsibility, Taylor explained. They've also begun doing more to help Ukraine as it continues to fight back against the Russian invasion there.

"After four years of war in Europe, most leaders have come to recognize Ukraine as a military and technological asset for European defense rather than a burden or a risk factor," said Taylor.

It's clear that Europe is taking the first steps to prepare for the day Russia tests the waters of a new conflict with the broader collection of countries. Germany issued its first military strategy since the Second World War and aims to build its army into the strongest in Europe by 2039.

"On Monday, EU ambassadors held a first tabletop exercise to test how they would implement in practice their own hitherto largely declaratory mutual assistance pact," said Taylor. The EU treaty known as Article 42.7 mandates “an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power." He added that it's more binding than NATO's Article 5.

The exercise made no mention of NATO. The move prompted concern among the Baltic states that it might anger Trump enough to disengage from European security entirely.

The prime minister of Poland has already openly questioned whether Trump would be there for NATO if Russia attacked. Speaking to the Financial Times, he said, Europe’s “biggest, most important question is if the United States is ready to be as loyal as it is described in our treaties."

It should be a topic of conversation at the next NATO summit in July, but Taylor said that he doubts anyone will bring it up with Trump face-to-face.

Taylor thinks that the "strongest option" for Europe if the U.S. stays on the sidelines is using "a European defense union led by France, Germany and the UK, backed by NATO and EU resources and with key roles for Poland and Ukraine."

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The Trump pattern continues: All talk and no receipts to show

The federal government keeps claiming there is massive fraud in its medical aid programs, but has been less than forthcoming about where it is and what's being done about it. Moreover, officials argue that if fraud were stopped, the federal deficit would disappear.

Instead, an outwardly partisan anti-fraud campaign has featured Vice President JD Vance in the starring role of tagging Democratic states as uncaring or incompetent about finding fraud. It all seems especially galling when the examples that Vance promotes generally are the result of already-run state investigations or the prospect of fraud possibility, inevitably involving programs by or for immigrants already barred by law from receiving benefits.

What's missing is an actual, evidenced accounting of what is supposed to be wrong rather than jumbled, unevidenced assertions that billions of public dollars are being wasted. Much like the fabled but discredited findings by Elon Musk's DOGE efforts a year ago, there is a lot of talk about fraud without the evidence to back up Vance's oft-repeated claims.

Indeed, news accounts of Vance presentations feature him or Dr. Mehmet Oz, head of the agency overseeing Medicare and Medicaid, discussing the possibilities of finding fraud without showing new cases.

As TalkingPointsMemo.com notes, Donald Trump used his State of the Union address to offer "an absurd, fantastical and quickly debunked claim: Once Vice President JD Vance had a chance to root out fraud from (blue states') social services programs, the federal budget would be balanced and the deficit would disappear."

Nope. Despite the hype, there is still a huge, quickly increasing federal debt and no list of fraudsters.

The White House has decided that Minnesota, California, and now Maine are either purposely (for political reasons) or incompetently ignoring Medicaid eligibility or fraudulent reporting of child-care reimbursement programs. Apparently, fraud that continued under the first Trump administration should not count.

The campaign started in earnest after Trump decided to attack Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and other state officials there who oppose Trump's deportation efforts over reports—some true, some not—that there had been fraudulent child-care schemes in that state. Trump made it all political by connecting those schemes—which had been prosecuted after state investigations—to efforts by Walz to shield Somali immigrants involved to gain their electoral support.

Quickly after naming Vance to head a White House effort to investigate fraud, the government has singled out blue states as bad actors in the filings of government reimbursements.

Last week, Vance hosted Republican attorneys general—Vance did not invite Democrats until the last minute, so they boycotted the session—and made clear that he will use this anti-fraud commission as another weapon in the retribution campaign Trump is waging against blue states by withholding federal funds as a form of punishment for various, nebulous offenses.

Vance said states should target Medicaid's social services spending and said the Health and Human Services Department would be reviewing how states use their Medicaid Fraud Control Units—ironically the very people who most often prosecute cases of Medicaid provider fraud. Indeed, states note that widespread cuts to Health and Human Services have made fraud investigation much more difficult.

While there is agreement that some fraud exists in federal spending, there is no evidence that it is as rampant as Team Trump claims nor only in blue states. To even keep deficit spending unchanging, for example, the amount of fraud would have to be triple what the Government Accounting Office estimates.

These public fraud charges are largely about suppliers who charge the government for a childcare facility that is not staffed, as an example from Minnesota. Medicare/Medicaid itself says the largest source of "fraud" is in overhyped medical prescriptions that result from the labyrinth for doctors to have to check the right boxes for reimbursement.

Just this week, ProPublica published an analysis showing upwards of $100 million a year spent for medically questionable vascular procedures for mildly affected patients.

But this campaign from Vance wants to pin blame on lack of Democratic state oversight for spending illegally on or for undocumented migrants or on allowing classes of ineligible aid recipients.

The GAO released a study in 2024, during the Joe Biden years, that estimated government-wide fraud was between $233 billion to $521 billion between 2018 and 2022 (including COVID years). The GAO collected data from prosecuted cases, from inspector general reports and confirmed fraud reported to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) by agencies. It used 46 fraud studies to build its model and to conclude that annual fraud losses amounted to between 3 percent and 7 percent of government spending. That is what the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid report as well.

Vance keeps telling reporters that in "just two months" the anti-fraud task force he has led for the Trump administration has "exposed billions of dollars in benefits that have been stolen from the American people." Vance claims the task force has deferred funds from fraudsters seeking small business loans and Medicaid reimbursements and recovered funds "stolen" from COVID relief programs.

Much of what Vance reports either already has been prosecuted or stopped or is believed to be the possible source of fraud. It is not new investigative gold. Vance placed a six-month hold on new hospice and home healthcare enrollments and shutdown of 780 hospice centers and asserted that he stopped $1.3 billion in fraud. How is that evidence? The task force referred $22 billion in small business loans for review, another $6 billion in government contracts, and $60 million in student aid payments. Calling them fraud doesn't make them fraud, a crime. Vance asserts that California and Minnesota are ignoring increases in fraud that he estimated in the billions without listing the who, what and how.

For the moment, assume all of it is true. For comparison, the federal cumulative deficit is estimated to be around $24 trillion, with growing costs of social services programs, interest, and, of course, tax cuts. GAO's estimates of fraud are nowhere near enough to balance that deficit.

Trump humiliates America again as world leaders openly question his mental fitness

Trump embarrassed the US again at the July 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. The world is watching—our enemies as well as our allies— which means it’s not just embarrassing, it’s dangerous.

Here’s how White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt described the NATO summit: "President Trump delivered a marathon, high-energy performance at the NATO summit, holding four separate press availabilities plus a solo press conference and taking unscripted questions from reporters on a wide range of topics. The President commanded every room, gave our allies some much-needed tough love, and left the summit with a stronger NATO and more united free world.”

Leavitt, Fox News, and rightwing media reported this fawning pablum and little else, which explains how 38% of the country still supports a corrupt felon who is openly robbing the country while he stives to start WWIII. To the rest of the world, Trump’s conduct was widely viewed as a highly embarrassing showcase of verbal stumbles, erratic behavior, and mental illness.

What the rest of the world reported

Trump tried to turn the NATO summit, like the nation’s 250th birthday, into a story centering around Trump. He committed repeated errors in the process:

Trump said Spain is ‘worthless’ and he wants to “cut off trade with Spain.” We don’t trade with Spain, we trade with the EU, of which Spain is a member. Trump appears not to understand the difference, or what the EU trade bloc actually does.

He called Zelensky President Putin. Twice.

He referred to the Islamic Republic of Japan.

He couldn’t recall the name of the Iran nuclear agreement hammered out and signed during the Obama administration, calling it "JC P," even though he started a war over it.

He trotted out, once again, his threat to take Greenland. Danish Prime Minister made it clear nothing of the sort would happen.

He praised Turkey’s president, a fellow corrupt authoritarian, and China’s Xi, a communist, but pointlessly insulted previous presidents of the United States. He can’t stop attacking Biden and Obama, whom he has called O-Bum-A. Such a clever guy. He has no idea that these childish insults and jabs at former US presidents paint our nation in a negative light, hurting our standing among peers and adversaries alike.

The worst and most dangerous thing is that Trump keeps demonstrating his fundamental ignorance of the NATO alliance. He has said, repeatedly, that NATO should have helped the US when he attacked Iran, because he is losing that ill-fated war and needs someone else to blame. Trump has called his requests to back his war in Iran a "loyalty test” in a fit of retaliation over their failure to join his attack. But NATO is a defensive alliance, not an offensive one. It is meant to deter aggression, and defend members when someone attacks; it does not attack but exists to deter attacks and Trump can’t seem to comprehend the difference. Trump attacked Iran without consulting NATO allies, can’t understand why most refused to help, and now wants to punish them for his own mistakes even though our allies were following our own defensive charter.

Insulting Italy’s Prime Minister

Beyond the personal gaffes, Trump’s outbursts deeply strained diplomatic relations by insulting and frustrating America’s long-standing allies.

Before he left for the summit, he posted a juvenile meme of Italy’s Prime Minster Giorgia Meloni, falsely depicting her looking up at him with adoring, fawning eyes. Above the photo he wrote, in all caps, “RESTRAINING ORDER NEEDED” as if Meloni is stalking him when in fact he makes her want to vomit. Trump is continuing the sophomoric spat he started with Meloni after she called him out as a lying liar who lies for claiming she “begged” for a photo with him at the G7 summit in France.

Trump stated during an interview that Meloni “desperately wanted the picture” with him and that he only agreed to it because he “felt sorry for her.” Meloni swiftly and strongly rejected that assertion as a lie. She fired back on Instagram that Trump's account was "completely made up" and that, "I and Italy never beg." Trump’s absurd dispute severely strained diplomatic ties with Italy and all of the EU, and prompted Italy's Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani to cancel a planned official visit to Washington.

Trump has turned most of the NATO alliance's major meetings into chaotic spectacles by insisting that the cameras focus only on him, then stumbling over facts, history and strategy he delivers in third grade English.

Global condemnation intensifies

Although Trump later reversed his tone behind closed NATO doors to claim a state of complete "unification," his bizarre statements and erratic performance left European heads of state visibly exhausted, and reinforced worry about his unstable approach to international diplomacy and his mental instability in general. Global condemnation has intensified across the world stage, with foreign leaders, foreign media, and mental health experts increasingly admitting that his erratic behavior is a direct threat to international security.

International alarm had already spiked following previous high-stakes summits where he exhibited similar cognitive slips—such as repeatedly confusing Greenland and Iceland, and mistaking the nation of Iran for Japan. Diplomatic circles were further rattled when Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico openly shared his Trump anxiety with The New Republic regarding Trump's volatile "psychological state." Fico told European Union leaders that he was worried about Trump’s mental health, saying that the president came across as “dangerous” during a meeting the pair had in January at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. Fico made the comments at an emergency EU summit over Trump’s threats to annex Greenland. French far-right leader Jordan Bardella similarly described Trump’s foreign policy as "erratic" and "extremely unsteady" and "constantly shifting.’

As reported by global publishers like The Guardian and France 24, foreign media has stopped analyzing Trump’s ‘unorthodox political strategy’ and has instead pivoted to directly and explicitly questioning his mental acuity. The growing international consensus is that Trump’s escalating impulsivity, unnecessary public feuds with global figures like Meloni and the Pope, and cognitive confusion is not so much eccentric showmanship as a display of cognitive decline that endangers the world.

Sabrina Haake is a political analyst and 25+ year federal trial attorney specializing in 1st and 14th A defense. She writes the free Substack, The Haake Take.

Trump hijacks America with a MAGA rally

Today America turns 250 years old, and instead of a celebration of the republic those 56 men who signed the Declaration risked the hangman’s noose to create, we’re getting a MAGA rally.

Donald Trump has taken the nation’s 250th birthday, the once-in-a-lifetime anniversary that belongs to all of us, and rebranded it as a tribute to himself.

He shoved aside the bipartisan “America 250” commission that Congress created a decade ago, stood up his own White House-controlled operation ironically called “Freedom 250,” and steered our taxpayer money toward his own vanity celebration while the congressional commission was left begging for the funds it was promised.

He staged a violent, brutal UFC cage fight on the White House lawn to satisfy his own bloodlust. He sent a fleet of eighteen-wheelers loaded with white supremacist PragerU’s cartoon versions of American history rolling across the country. And this weekend, on the same National Mall where Americans once gathered to mourn Lincoln and to hear Dr. King, he’s throwing what he actually called, in his own words, “the most spectacular TRUMP RALLY of them all.”

Two hundred and fifty years ago we declared our independence from exactly this. From a man who conflated himself with the country. From a ruler who believed the government, the honor, the lives and sacrifice of generations were his personal property, to be used for his own personal glory and profit.

When our nation’s Founders overthrew a king in 1776, they paid a huge price for it. Altogether, seventeen of the fifty-six signers of the Declaration of Independence were wiped out by the war they declared.

The signers wrote in the Declaration, “we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor,” and it was a simple statement of fact. The day they signed that document, each legally became a traitor and was sentenced to death for treason by the ruler who controlled their lands and their homes.

One the wealthiest of the signers was Thomas Nelson of Virginia, but a year after the signing the British had seized his home and lands. When he and George Washington attacked the British in Nelson’s hometown, he encouraged Washington to attack the Nelson homestead, which British General Cornwallis had taken as his headquarters, with cannons. The house was destroyed, and after the war Nelson, unable to repay loans he’d taken out against it to help finance the Revolution, lost his property; he died in poverty at the age of 50.

The wealthy Philadelphia merchant, Robert Morris, lost 150 ships at sea in the war, wiping out his small fortune; he died destitute. Signer William Ellery of Rhode Island similarly lost everything, as did Virginia’s Carter Braxton and Benjamin Harrison, Pennsylvania’s George Clymer, New York’s Philip Livingston, Georgia’s Lyman Hall, and New Jersey’s Francis Hopkinson.

The British destroyed New York’s Francis Lewis’ property and threw his wife into such a hellhole of a jail that she died two years later. Three of South Carolina’s four signers — Edward Rutledge, Thomas Heyward, Jr., and Arthur Middleton — were captured by the British and held in a filthy, unheated prison and brutally tortured for a year before George Washington freed them in a prisoner exchange.

New Jersey farmer John Hart’s wife died shortly after he signed the Declaration, and his thirteen children were scattered among sympathetic families to hide them from the British and conservative loyalists. He never saw them again, dying alone and wracked with grief three years later.

New Jersey State Supreme Court Justice Richard Stockton took his wife and children into hiding after he signed the Declaration, but conservatives loyal to the crown turned them in. He was so badly beaten and starved in the British prison that he died before the war was over. His home was looted, and his wife and children lived the rest of their lives as paupers.

Altogether, nine of the men in that room died and four lost their children as a direct result of putting their names to the Declaration of Independence. Every single one had to flee his home, and, after the war, twelve returned to find only rubble.

They were all willing to fight and die for the idea of democracy in America. Every one of them.

So on our 250th birthday — with draft-dodger “Corporal Bonespurs” and his lickspittle Republicans’ corruption and refutation of democracy so painfully obvious — it’s worth asking the question directly, the one this whole grotesque spectacle forces on us:

Do the Redcoats (at least in philosophy) once again rule America?

Does today’s America reflect the belief that all people “are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness” as Hegseth purges our military of Black and female officers? As ICE terrorizes anybody whose skin isn’t white with their “Kavanaugh Stops”? As a man gets three decades in prison for hiding anti-fascist literature?

Are we a nation ruled by MAGA-aligned oligarchs or by We, the People?

By overwhelming majorities, Americans want:
— cheaper and more universal healthcare and drugs,
— quality, secular public schools and free higher education available to all,
— the right to unionize and a livable minimum wage,
— protections from discrimination,
— freedom from fear of death by firearms,
— a clean environment and immediate action to mitigate the climate emergency,
— affordable housing,
— an end to corporate monopolies that lock small business out of the marketplace while generating obscene profits for Epstein-class oligarchs,
— a humane end to our twin crises of homelessness and untreated mental illness,
— medical-based (rather than prison-based) programs to help people suffering from addiction,
— morbidly rich individuals and giant corporations to pay their fair share of taxes,
— strengthened Social Security and real Medicare,
— the right to vote without challenge or interference,
— the right to abortion, IVF, and birth control,
— and punishment for leaders who lie us into wars, commit torture and rape, and try to overthrow our republic by deceit and violence.

If we were truly a democratic republic — the imagined goal of the Declaration and Constitution — we would have already joined every other developed democracy in the world in having these things.

Instead, we are the developed world’s outlier.

How is this possible in a nation that has, for over two centuries, proclaimed itself a republic where — within the bounds of the protected rights of minorities — the will of the majority is supposed to be enacted into law?

With a Republican-controlled House, and a filibuster enforced by Republicans in the Senate (who represent 41 million fewer Americans than their Democratic Senate peers), and six Republican toadies to billionaires on the Supreme Court, can we honestly say — as Jefferson proclaimed — “that to secure these rights” of ‘life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” our state and federal governments are today “deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed”?

Tomorrow we celebrate the legal and formal declaration of a war — the second-bloodiest in American history — that we fought to separate ourselves from a brutal warlord, the King of England, and the morbidly rich oligarchs who propped him up.

We’ve never fully acted out the ideals the Founders and Framers borrowed from the Huron and Iroquois — as I lay out in The Hidden History of American Democracy — but throughout our history we have been moving forward in fits and starts for over two centuries.

At least we were moving forward until the Reagan Revolution, when a small group of billionaires and industrialists put together a plan, authored in 1971 by Lewis Powell (who Richard Nixon put on the Supreme Court in 1972), that billionaires and Republicans on the Court and in Congress have been following like a blueprint ever since.

And the consequences have been devastating, a naked repudiation of the ideals of July 4, 1776.

In the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s — as unions flourished and Eisenhower and Kennedy used a top 90% income tax rate on the morbidly rich to build freeways, airports, and tens of thousands of gleaming new schools and hospitals across the land — Americans had a lot of trust in our government. Around 80 percent of Americans told pollsters they trusted our government, a number similar to that of the citizens of virtually all the western European countries.

Today, the Pew Research Center says, only 17 percent of Americans say they trust our government. Fewer than half of us even know today that we’re celebrating the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

How did this happen?

For the morbidly rich and big corporations back in the 1970s, this average American’s trust in a government that was then maintaining high tax rates and — through the newly-created EPA, Clean Air Act, and Clean Water Act — holding corporations accountable for their pollution and poisonous products, was, they believed, an existential threat to their wealth and power.

Thus, in response to the growing environmental and consumer movements kicked off by Rachel Carson’s 1961 book Silent Spring and Ralph Nader’s 1965 book Unsafe at Any Speed, giant corporations and the morbidly rich people they created set out to destroy Americans’ faith in our tax-and-regulate form of government.

As Lewis Powell wrote in his infamous 1971 Memo arguing that businesses and very wealthy individuals needed to mobilize to stop this “assault” on American business:

“Perhaps the single most effective antagonist of American business is Ralph Nader who — thanks largely to the media — has become a legend in his own time and an idol of millions of Americans.”

Powell then quoted a May 1971 article profiling Nader (who wrote the foreword to my book The Hidden History of Monopolies) in Fortune magazine:

“The passion that rules in him — and he is a passionate man — is aimed at smashing utterly the target of his hatred, which is corporate power. He thinks, and says quite bluntly, that a great many corporate executives belong in prison — for defrauding the consumer with shoddy merchandise, poisoning the food supply with chemical additives, and willfully manufacturing unsafe products that will maim or kill the buyer. He emphasizes that be is not talking just about ‘fly-by-night hucksters’ but the top management of blue-chip business.”

This was no less, Powell declared in his next paragraph, than:

“A frontal assault … on our government, our system of justice, and the free enterprise system…”

His solution, as history shows, was for big corporations and the morbidly rich to create a network of think tanks to alter public opinion, to build a filtering organization to help pack the courts, to create rightwing media empires — particularly in the realms of television, social media, and talk radio — to replace trust in government with cynicism, and to insert “business-friendly” rightwing teachers and professors in schools and colleges while purging woke “liberals.”

After Nixon put Powell on the Supreme Court and five corrupt Republicans overturned Teddy Roosevelt’s Tillman Act and legalized corporate campaign donations in a decision Powell himself authored (Bellotti), corporations began sponsoring politicians willing to put deregulation and tax cuts at the top of their agenda in exchange for large campaign contributions and other forms of support like cushy jobs after leaving office.

Clarence Thomas, after taking millions in “gifts,” then cast the 2010 deciding vote in Citizens United to destroy the few remaining remnants of law preventing naked bribery of public officials; in 2024 he and his Republican colleagues tripled down on corrupting our form of government in Snyder by declaring that bribes paid out after politicians and judges do the bidding of rich people or corporations are mere “gratuities.”

The key to making the entire project work was destroying citizens’ faith in the government our ancestors (I’m a member of SAR) fought to create in 1776, because Powell and the tobacco and fossil fuel oligarchs who owned him believed government was taking too much of their taxes (at that time the top income tax bracket was 74% and corporate income taxes could max out at nearly 50%), and regulations to protect consumers, workers, and the environment were cutting into profits.

If they could get the American people to reject government and instead embrace corporations “sponsoring” public goods like research centers, hospitals, and civic centers; privatize Medicare (through George W. Bush’s Medicare “Advantage” scam); privatize public education through vouchers, the Ten Commandments, and charter schools; and have public parks, stadiums, museums, and other institutions turn to billionaires for charity instead of depending on tax dollars, then they could eventually get their taxes lowered and those pesky regulations crushed (as the corrupt Republicans on the Court did in 2024 by blowing up the Chevron deference).

The Powell Memo brought into being a plethora of rightwing think tanks, radio and “news” networks, and advocacy organizations that today litter the top hits on any search of government-mediated topics from free trade to tax policy to “right to work for less” assaults on organized labor.

Their efforts show up regularly in news stories, college textbooks and courses, and thousands of opinion pieces published across the internet, in major national publications, and on social media every day. Rightwing talk radio — with some individual hosts getting over a million dollars a year in subsidies — has provided a steady drumbeat of “government can’t do anything right” for almost forty years.

The result of this corrosive social and political poison has been that Powell and his billionaire acolytes were successful in turning average Americans against their government and its leaders. So successful that, as one 2022 poll famously showed, “62% of Republicans say Putin is a ‘stronger leader’ than Biden.”

Powell’s work also set the stage for the 1981 Reagan presidency, which lowered income taxes so much that today’s average billionaire pays around 3.4 percent, radically cut the corporate tax rate while de-funding the IRS, and slashed regulations, particularly on the fossil fuel and chemical industries.

Reagan famously said, in 1986, that “The nine most frightening words in the English language are, ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’”

In other words, don’t trust the government we proclaimed, fought for, and many of our ancestors died to create on this day in 1776: instead, appeal to your friendly local corporation or billionaire for help.

Reagan also kicked off the modern neoliberal era by negotiating the GATT (leading to the WTO) and his VP, George HW Bush, negotiated the NAFTA agreement that began the process of moving over 60,000 mostly-unionized factories and over 15-20 million good-paying union jobs out of the US and into low-wage countries.

While destroying faith in government has worked out well for transnational corporations and the morbidly rich, its main side-effect has been to empower demagogues and enemies of democracy like Donald Trump, JD Vance, and the prime-time lineup at Fox “News.” Half of Republican voters now say they’re ready to reject democracy altogether.

The Trump v US presidential immunity decision by six on-the-take Republicans on the Supreme Court in 2024 that set the stage for “Führer Trump” raises an urgent question on this 250th Fourth of July:

“Can we even recover our republican democracy, the one generations of Americans have fought and died for?”

Republicans (state and federal) have passed hundreds of new laws, all with the approval of five or six (depending on the year) corrupt Republicans on the Supreme Court, designed to make it more difficult for American citizens to participate in the process of selecting their representatives, the core function of a democratic republic.

They’ve also proposed or passed numerous laws so severely criminalizing voter registration drives that the League of Women Voters has abandoned their efforts in multiple Red States.

Republicans have criminalized protest and dissent, primary American values written into the First Amendment, and even — outrageously — given a “get out of jail free” card in numerous Red states to people who intentionally kill protesters like Heather Heyer. As just one example, a headline at Truthout bluntly states:

“DeSantis Signs Bill Ending Vehicle Driver Liability For Hitting Protesters.”

In Idaho, a local Republican Party followed other Red states in running a fundraiser called “Trigger Time with Kyle” where enthusiastic MAGA donors could fire assault weapons at black human-like targets alongside the man who was acquitted — after bizarre jury instructions by a rightwing judge — of murdering two nonviolent people protesting George Floyd’s murder.

The head of the Heritage Foundation even proclaimed the Republican Party’s possible willingness to slaughter Americans who oppose their Project 2025 agenda.

Today’s Republican Party no longer believes in democracy or the core ideals on which this nation was founded: they reject “equality before the law” of all human beings, and the concept that our government derives its power and legitimacy from “the consent of the governed.”

Instead, like the Loyalists and Tories during the Revolutionary era, and the traitor Confederates in the 1860s, they’ve sworn their allegiance and fealty to the rich and powerful; to would-be monarchs and dictators like Trump and Vance; to armed militias and bullies seeking to whitewash American history, intimidate voters, and control our schools and public institutions.

And now six Republicans on the Supreme Court have given Trump and future presidents craven enough to use them king-like powers over the very agencies Congress created to protect the rest of us and our environment.

If it seems like America is re-fighting the Revolutionary War or the Civil War, it’s because there’s a sizeable group of right-wing Americans who will proudly tell you (and have even proclaimed to judges in January 6th trials) that’s exactly what they believe they’re doing.

In both of those two past wars, one group of Americans believed in the ideal of a pluralistic democracy and a republic deriving its authority from the will and consent of its people.

On the other side were people who believed that democracy was a dangerous experiment and a grave mistake; that the rich and powerful should rule and only white male landowners should vote or hold political office.

This is what the Republican party now represents: Oligarchy.

— Rule by the rich, ignoring “the consent of the governed.”
— The suppression of dissent, the oppression of minorities, and replacing the ballot box with the iron fist of a police state run of, by, and for the wealthy few.

And they’re pushing us there hard and fast:

— A political network run by a group of right-wing billionaires has a larger budget and more employees than the entire Republican Party.
— A family of billionaire oligarchs from Australia crank democracy-hating propaganda into the American political bloodstream nearly every day on cable television and in print.
— Voices openly denigrating democracy and promoting hate and intolerance — the hallmarks of brutal fascism — are on local radio and television in every American city, every single day, and similarly dominate the secret algorithms of Social Media.
— The single largest source of threats of violence and murders by terrorists in America today are committed by white-supremacists aligned with the GOP who hate and fear the idea of a pluralistic, democratic society.

Tragically, for the third time in our nation’s history, patriots who believe in the ideals of July 4, 1776 must defend America against those who don’t.

Several of these hard-right groups have openly declared their intention to start a second American Civil War. Tim McVeigh is their hero. They celebrate the anniversaries of Waco and McVeigh’s bombing. They honor Hitler’s birthday. They have their “fourteen words” which show up in one after another mass shooter’s manifestos.

They say they want to see Americans killing each other in the name of white supremacy and rule by the rich, and have slaughtered Hispanics (El Paso), Jews (Tree of Life), and Blacks (Mother Emmanuel). They terrorize Asian American, queer, and Native American communities for sport. They applaud ICE.

They declare their loyalty to a white-supremacist real estate oligarch from New York, get their news from Australian and Russian oligarchs, and have embraced an ideology championed by Germans in the 1930s. At a Republican rally last year they were openly waving swastika flags and, when asked to denounce them, Florida’s governor instead claimed the reporter asking the question was trying to “smear me as if I had something to do with it.”

We had our third chance in 2024, and we let it slip. Trump won, and he came back not chastened but emboldened, surrounded by the same billionaires who bankrolled his rise and are now getting their return on investment in spades.

Everything the Loyalists and the Confederates and the Redcoats ever wanted — rule by the rich, contempt for the ballot, a leader who answers to no one — is being assembled in front of us in real time.

But here’s what the summer soldiers and the sunshine patriots always forget: the people who signed that Declaration were, at first, losing too.

They were outgunned, outspent, and written off. But they won anyway, because enough of them decided a republic was worth more than their own comfort. We get to make that same decision now, peacefully in the streets, in the 2026 midterms, and in every town council and school board and courthouse where these people are trying to plant their MAGA flag.

When “moderate” voices within their ranks, like Mitt Romney, Adam Kinzinger, and even (for God’s sake!) Bill Kristol, dare pop their heads up, the majority of the Republican Party viciously attacks them.

Dissent — like in the colonies before 1776 or the Old South leading up to the Civil War — is no longer allowed in the GOP. Authoritarianism like that celebrated by King George III and his then-Colonial-toadies now prevails. Oligarchy has completely seized the Party.

These are, as Thomas Paine (a fervent believer in democracy) said, “the times that try men’s souls.”

Seven months before the Declaration of Independence was signed, General George Washington had lost New York to the British, was encamped at McKonkey’s Ferry on the Delaware River opposite Trenton, New Jersey, and 11,000 men had just deserted his army and fled back to their homes. A brutal winter was upon him and the brave men who stayed with him including one of my ancestors.

In response, Thomas Paine, knowing the consequences of losing the war, wrote a pamphlet titled The American Crisis that Washington ordered read to all American troops across every field of battle. It said, in part:

“The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered…”

We must not let the right-wing billionaires, politicians, and their masked terrorists prevail.

These oligarchs and their lickspittles are daily working to destroy our public schools, end freedom from religious domination, and eliminate our right to vote or trust that our politicians and judges are working for us instead of billionaires and giant corporations.

When Rhode Island’s Stephen Hopkins signed the Declaration of Independence, he remarked to his friend William Ellery that, “My hand trembles, but my heart does not.” But Virginia’s Benjamin Harrison, who weighed nearly 300 pounds, commented to Massachusetts’ Elbridge Gerry, a short, thin man, “With me it [the hanging] will all be over in a minute, but you will be dancing on air an hour after I am gone.”

Will any Republican in today’s House or Senate — the bodies those men created — find even a fraction of the courage of those who founded this nation? Will Democratic candidates repudiate big, dark, and foreign money and embrace the ideals of the New Deal and Great Society, the ideals that Paine wrote about in Agrarian Justice and The Crisis?

This July 4th let us all remember, as Paine wrote in words that inspired a new nation and ultimately changed the course of history:

“We have it in our power to begin the world over again.”

Tag, we’re it.

CA Republicans who flipped seats in 2024 are now fighting to keep them

In 2024, California Republicans flipped three legislative seats amid a nationwide rightward shift that helped elect President Donald Trump.

Now, they must play defense.

This story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.

Two of the seats they flipped in the state Assembly are up for reelection. Republicans are also fending off challenges in a few other purple districts.

Defending their seats will be a tall task: The president’s party almost always loses in downballot races during the midterms, and Trump’s approval rating has slipped.

Democratic challengers in those hot races are bashing GOP incumbents for failing to defend Californians from Trump’s actions.

“California Republicans have spent a decade wrapping their arms around Donald Trump, so they can't run away from the president's record,” said California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks.

For embattled Republicans, it’ll be crucial to keep Trump at arm’s length, GOP consultants and local party chairs agree.

Assembly District 58

The dynamic is playing out in the rematch between Assemblymember Leticia Castillo, a Corona Republican, and Clarissa Cervantes, a Democrat and Riverside city councilmember who lost to Castillo by fewer than 600 votes in 2024. Republicans slammed Cervantes for her two drunk driving convictions, and Castillo won despite being heavily outspent: Her campaign raised just $78,000 compared to Cervantes’ $1 million.

This time, Cervantes, whose sister Sen. Sabrina Cervantes previously held this seat, is banking on voters who’ve grown frustrated with the high cost of living Trump promised to bring down. In a CalMatters interview, she pointed to the war in Iran that has sent gas prices skyrocketing, saying Castillo is complacent about Trump’s policies. Castillo has focused on “conspiracy theories and culture wars,” Cervantes argued, referring to a bill the Republican authored to keep transgender women out of locker rooms and restrooms.

“She's not getting anything done for us,” Cervantes said.

Castillo did not make herself available to CalMatters for this story. In an early April interview, she blamed high gas prices on California regulations, which she said drove up refinery closures.

Still, Castillo tried to separate herself from Trump. “I get people just want to continue to say, ‘Trump, Trump, Trump.’ At the end of the day, we’re in California, and Trump doesn’t rule here.”

Assembly District 36

Further inland, GOP Assemblymember Jeff Gonzalez of Coachella, who shocked Capitol watchers by flipping the left-leaning Latino-majority district in 2024, faces three Democrats: Indio City Councilmember Oscar Ortiz, former El Centro Mayor Tomás Oliva, and Imperial City Councilmember Ida Obeso-Martinez. None of the Democrats secured a party endorsement.

Gonzalez, a former Marine who joined the bipartisan legislative Problem Solvers Caucus that pledges to “put people over party,” has had to walk a fine line on immigration. He sought to justify Trump’s deployment of troops in Los Angeles last year as “stepping up.” He also signed a caucus letter to Congress last year advocating for a path for legal status for undocumented immigrants.

That did not stop Democratic challengers from linking him to Trump’s immigration enforcement. “We … see him staying silent on some of the toughest issues that we have in our community,” Ortiz said. “Our children are rotting away in prison cells at the moment, and he doesn't seem to be bothered by it.”

Gonzalez declined a CalMatters interview request, but said in a statement that he’s “focused on real results” and blamed both parties for using immigration as “a political chess piece.”

“Our district made it clear they were tired of the status quo and wanted real change when it comes to leadership, and I have kept my promise to deliver just that,” he said.

Here are some other competitive legislative races we’re watching.

Vulnerable Republicans

AD 7

In this northeastern Sacramento County district, Republican incumbent Josh Hoover unseated then-Democratic Assemblymember Ken Cooley after the district shifted rightward in 2020. The district, which includes cities like Citrus Heights, Folsom and Rancho Cordova, has slightly more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 2024, voters supported Kamala Harris for president but re-elected Hoover by 7%.

Candidates: Josh Hoover [R] - incumbent Republican; Amy Slavensky [D] - former Amador County USD superintendent; Vance Taylor [D] - chief of the Office of Access and Functional Needs at CalOES

AD47

This district, which includes both deep-blue Palm Springs and its conservative outskirts, is a target for Democrats. Republican incumbent Greg Wallis won by 85 votes in 2022, becoming the only Republican that year to win a legislative district that voted for Newsom. Wallis held onto his seat in 2024 even though the district voted Democratic in statewide contests.

Candidates: Jason Byors [D] - computer programmer; Leila Namvar [D] - former local labor leader and city planner; Greg Wallis [R] - incumbent

AD74

This district contains Republican-leaning stretches of Orange and San Diego counties and liberal parts of San Diego County. While registered Republicans slightly outnumber Democrats, voters picked former President Joe Biden by 6.2% in 2020 and Harris by 1.9% in 2024. Republican incumbent Laurie Davies, who is seeking re-election, fended off a Democratic challenge by 1.7% in 2024.

Candidates: Laurie Davies [R] - incumbent; Sergio Farias [D] - former mayor and current councilmember of San Juan Capistrano

Vulnerable Democrats

SD 38

Republicans are seeking to unseat State Sen. Catherine Blakespear, an Encinitas Democrat who won the coastal seat by less than 5% in 2022. The district north of San Diego has historically been a toss-up, but has swung Democratic in recent years. Coastal development and preservation are a huge topic in this race.

Candidates: Laura Bassett [R] - professional fiduciary; Catherine Blakespear [D] - incumbent

Competitive open seats

SD 10

A crowd of Democrats in this South Bay Area-based district are seeking to succeed Sen. Aisha Wahab, a Fremont Democrat who is running for Congress.

Candidates:

David Cohen [D] - San Jose city councilmember; Raymond Liu [D] - Fremont city councilmember; Carmen Montano [D] - mayor of Milpitas; Scott Sakakihara [D] - Union City councilmember

SD 14

This Central Valley district, which includes Fresno, Merced and other agriculture-dependent cities, has trended rightward in recent years and is a top GOP target. Still, Democratic Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria is considered the frontrunner.

Candidates:

Darin DuPont [R] - Merced city councilmember; Esmeralda Hurtado [D] - Sanger city councilmember; Esmeralda Soria [D] - State assemblymember

SD 24

In this heavily Democratic Southern California district covering cities including Malibu and Santa Monica, a mad dash is on to replace Sen. Ben Allen, who is running for insurance commissioner. Wildfire and homeowner insurance are hot topics in this district heavily impacted by the fires last year.

Candidates:

Eric Alegria [D] - Palos Verdes Peninsula Unified School Board member; John Erickson [D] -West Hollywood city councilmember; Ellen Evans [D] - Bel Air-Beverly Crest Neighborhood Council member; Brian Goldsmith [D] - former Democratic Majority for Israel senior advisor; Michael Newhouse [D] - small businessperson; Sion Roy [D] - physician; Zennon Ulyate-Crow [D] - nonprofit executive director; Kristina Irwin [R] - Real estate agent; Glenn Marshall [R] - director at the California Taxpayers Action Network

SD 26

This is yet another deep-blue seat up for grabs after Sen. Maria Elena Durazo terms out at the end of the year. It includes several immigrant enclaves in downtown Los Angeles and the city of Vernon.

Candidates:

Juan Camacho [D] - Equality California Institute Board president; Wendy Carrillo [D] - former assemblymember and healthcare advocate; Sara Hernandez [D] - president of the L.A. Community College District Board of Trustees; Maebe Pudlo [D] - Silver Lake Neighborhood councilmember; Sarah Rascón [D] - Los Angeles Area Planning commissioner

SD 40

This Inland San Diego County-based purple district is a top Democratic target, as Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones, a moderate Republican from San Diego, terms out at the end of 2026. The district leans Republican but has become more Democratic over the years. Republicans are split on Jones’ successor: A San Marcos city councilmember Jones endorsed or a far-right firebrand.

Candidates:

Kristie Bruce-Lane [R] - two-time candidate for state Assembly; Mara Elliott [D] - former San Diego city attorney; Ed Musgrove [R] - San Marcos city councilmember


AD 12

This Marin County district is a safe Democratic stronghold, and a five-way Democratic primary is on to succeed Assemblymember Damon Connolly, who is running for state Senate. No Democrat secured a party endorsement.

Candidates:

Eli Beckman [D] - Corte Madera mayor; Eryn Cervantes [R] - corrections official; Jackie Elward [D] - Rohnert Park councilmember; Eric Lucan [D] - Marin County supervisor; Steve Schwartz [D] - nonprofit executive and farmer; Holli Thier [D] - Tiburon councilmember

AD 27

This Central Valley seat being vacated by Democratic Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria, who is running for Senate, is a top target for Republicans. The Latino-majority district has more registered Democrats than Republicans but voted for Trump in 2024 after favoring Biden in 2020.

Candidates:

Mike Murphy [D] - former Merced mayor; Brian Pacheco [D] - Fresno County supervisor; Japjeet Singh Uppal [D] - Livingston councilmember

AD 35

The Kern County-based Latino-majority district, vacated by Democratic Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, who is running for Congress, has also swung rightward: Harris won it by just 0.3% in 2024, whereas Biden carried it by 21% in 2020. There are nearly twice as many registered Democrats than Republicans.

Candidates:

Saul Ayon [R] - McFarland mayor; Andrae Gonzales [D] - Bakersfield city councilmember; Ana Palacio [D] - Emergency room nurse

AD 65

This deep-blue open seat to succeed Assemblymember Mike Gipson, a Gardena Democrat who is termed out, has attracted a flurry of Democratic candidates. Some of the state’s most powerful Democratic groups are split: Compton Unified School District trustee Ayanna Davis is endorsed by the state Democratic Party and several major labor unions, whereas Fatima Iqbal-Zubair, chair of the California Progressive Caucus, is backed by SEIU California and the California Teachers Union.

Candidates:

Eugene Allen [D] - medical doctor; Ayanna Davis [D] - Compton Unified School District trustee; Fatima Iqbal-Zubair [D] - chair of California Progressive Caucus; Lamar Lyons [D] - San Pedro Central Neighborhood Council president; Magali Sanchez-Hall [D] - project manager at UCLA

This article was originally published on CalMatters and was republished under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives license.

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