Guy T. Saperstein

Donald Trump will destroy the Republican Party — here's how Democrats can help

There is a movement in Congress by Democrats to invoke the 14th Amendment and take away Donald Trump's right to run again for the presidency. Their time would be better spent encouraging Trump to run again.

Simply put, Trump is the most unpopular politician in America. In one term, he managed to lose the presidency, the House and the Senate. No one-term president in American history other than Trump has ever done this. In 2020, he not only ran 7+ million votes behind Biden, he ran 7+ million votes behind the Republican ticket. Behind Republican House and Senate candidates. In 2020, the Republican Party was not repudiated, but Trump was.

For four years, Trump struggled to poll more than 45%, and currently is polling under 40%. By contrast, Biden currently is polling 62%. Trump is toxic and Democrats should welcome another Trump run for the White House. He's the weakest candidate they could ever face.

It is true Trump is very popular within the Republican Party, which is why he can still terrorize Republican members of the House and Senate with threats of primary challenges, but why should Democrats worry about that? It mainly means that more Trump cultists will end up running against Democrats in general elections, where they will be easier to beat than moderate Republicans. Mitch McConnell and Mitt Romney, among others, understand this, but few other Republicans facing re-election seem willing to act on this message.

Donald Trump will destroy the Republican Party. Let's welcome that, not fight it. It will take one or two elections for this to become obvious, but you can take this prediction to the bank.

Guy T. Saperstein is a retired attorney who founded the largest private plaintiff civil rights law firm in America and successfully prosecuted the largest sex, race and age discrimination class actions in American history.

How America Became Irrelevant to the Rest of the World

Depending on the hour, President Trump is in open conflict with Congress, the media, the intelligence services, his own national-security adviser, his generals, and now, seemingly, his own veterans affairs director. That sort of turbulence leaves the United States paralyzed and indecisive, unable to speak with a common, or even coherent, voice on a number of important policy issues. And it appears that, on many topics, other countries have stopped listening.

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Jon Stewart Should Run for President

Two years ago, the suggestion that Jon Stewart should run for president would be met with satirical criticism. He does not have experience holding office, he is an entertainer, not a politician, and he's funny—too funny to be president. But times have changed dramatically. On Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016, millions of Americans watched as Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio turned red and Donald Trump, a businessman who knows more about luxury hotels than foreign policy, was voted to the highest office in the land by the will of millions of Americans.

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Trump Didn't Win the Election, Hillary Lost It

Hillary was always going to be a weak candidate and the evidence was there for anyone willing to see it.  The only surprise was how hard many people worked not to see the obvious.
For one, she was exactly the wrong candidate for 2016. In May 2014, two and a half years ago, I wrote on these pages: 

By every metric, voters are in a surly mood and they are not going to be happy campers in 2016, either. Why should they be? The economy is still in the toilet, not enough jobs are being created even to keep up with population growth, personal debt and student debt are rising, college graduates can’t find jobs, retirement benefits are shrinking, infrastructure is deteriorating, banksters never were held accountable for melting down the economy, inequality is exploding — and neither party is addressing the depth of the problems America faces. As a result, voters in 2016 will be seeking change and there is no way Clinton can run as a “change” candidate — indeed, having been in power in Washington for 20-plus years as First Lady, U.S. Senator and Secretary of State, she is the poster child for the Washington political establishment, an establishment that will not be popular in 2016.  

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9 Things the Dems Should Do to Get Their House in Order

The first thing Democrats need to do is stop feeling sorry for themselves and stop issuing idiotic statements like their recent claim that they cannot "mathematically" do anything. They still control the presidency and have large majorities in the Congress. With a bozo who won the presidency with a minority of votes and thin majorities in Congress, the Republicans in 2001-2006 still aggressively pushed their agenda. "Mathematics" didn't stop the Republicans and there is no reason for the Dems to act impotent and paralyzed now.

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The Only Option for Health Reform Is the Public Option

The United States has the most-expensive, least-efficient and, in many ways, most-ineffective health care system in the world.

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Pat Buchanan Continues His Racist Attacks on Sotomayor

Yesterday, on MSNBC, Pat Buchanan attacked Sonia Sotomayor, specifically, and affirmative action, in general. Included in his attack were such claims as "this has been a country built basically by white folks," that Sotomayor was purely an affirmative-action candidate who lacks real credentials and his suggestion that we need more white, male Supreme Court nominees -- like Robert Bork -- despite the fact that 108 of the 110 Supreme Court justices in our nation's history have been white.

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What Game Is Hillary Playing?

Nothing reveals more clearly how utterly unprincipled the Clintons are than their assertion that rules set by the Democratic Party's Rules Committee, and endorsed by all Clinton representatives on this Committee, now should be abandoned. Nothing reveals more clearly that the only rules the Clintons follow are rules which favor them. Nothing reveals how exaggerated their claims are than Hillary's recent comparison of the votes in Michigan and Florida to the civil rights movement, the suffragette movement, the fraudulent election in Zimbabwe and the 2000 election in Florida.

The outlines of this story are simple and straight-forward: Two states, Michigan and Florida, sought to advance their Democratic primary elections ahead of other states in order to increase their influence in the primary process. If they had been allowed to do so, Democratic parties in other states could have done the same, it would have become a frantic, disorganized race to be the first, or among the first, state primaries, and the primary season could have been extended substantially. The Democratic Rules Committee reviewed this, understood that chaos would ensue if every state party could advance their presidential primaries unilaterally, and ruled that if Michigan and Florida advanced their primaries, the votes would not count in the delegate race.

Hillary Clinton had 15 representatives on the 30-member Rules Committee and every single one of Clinton's representatives supported this Rules Committee decision, which passed unanimously; Democratic parties in 48 states followed the rule, but Michigan and Florida chose not to. Subsequently, no Democratic candidate campaigned in either state and no Democratic candidate, except Hillary Clinton [who fudged the rules] was even on the ballot in Michigan. The Clinton campaign now contends that these wholly undemocratic elections -- even the Stalinist one-candidate election in Michigan -- must count or democracy itself will be imperiled.

Harold Ickes, one of Hillary's representatives on the Rules Committee who voted for the rule barring counting the Michigan and Florida votes, and Hillary's chief negotiator of this issue, was asked recently on one of the Sunday morning political talk shows, "You voted for the Rules Committee decision, but now you are complaining about it. What has changed?" Ickes replied, "What has changed is that now we are behind." So, there it is -- there is not an ounce of principle in the Clinton position. When they thought they were ahead in the presidential race, they supported the rule, but now that they are behind, they don't like it. Wouldn't it be wonderful if the rest of us could act like the Clintons and support rules when they favor us and ignore them when they don't?

Two days ago, Hillary hyperventilated on this topic, comparing enforcement of party rules -- rules she earlier had agreed to -- to the civil rights and suffragette movements, Zimbabwe and Florida 2000, as though enforcing a reasonable party rule was comparable to 300 years of slavery, the disenfranchisement of racial minorities and women from voting for hundreds of years, the unprecedented action of a conservative Supreme Court and the tyrannical actions of an African dictator. The Clintons are desperate; they need boundaries.

Ignoring all rules established for the Democratic primaries, which all Democratic candidates, except Hillary Clinton, followed, the Clintons now also contend that the elaborate system of caucuses and primary votes which have been used for this and prior presidential elections should be ignored in favor of reliance only on popular vote counts. In other words, 48 states have been actively engaged in following established rules, but now, at the end of the process, the Clintons propose to jettison the rules and substitute their own new interpretation. Not only is the threshold proposal absurd on its face, the Clintons don't even count the popular vote fairly: They include votes in the Michigan primary, where Hillary was the only candidate on the Democratic ballot and Obama got zero votes, and exclude hundreds of thousands of caucus votes in the caucus states. If all votes are counted, Obama wins by every metric, including popular vote, and he currently is 180+ votes ahead in the delegate count.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign remains open to compromising this dispute so that delegates from Michigan and Florida can be seated at the convention, but, to date, the hard-line Clintons have refused all efforts at compromise.

We need to ask, "Who is the audience for this kind of nonsense?" There are only three possible answers: [1] Super-delegates; [2] Voters; and, [3] The Clintons.

If the Clintons think their bogus arguments are going to move super-delegates to their side, they clearly have miscalculated. In the past ten days, Obama has picked up 42 super-delegates; Hillary has picked up two. I have been calling super-delegates for the past two weeks, including some who previously leaned toward Clinton. Not a single one takes the Clinton disenfranchisement or popular vote arguments seriously. Every single one knows the rules were set by the DNC on a consensus basis, that they were necessary and that there would be chaos in the Democratic primaries if the DNC could not enforce rules such as this.

New York Governor, David Paterson, a Clinton super-delegate, was asked today if the Michigan and Florida votes should be included. He responded: "I would say at this point we are starting to see a little desperation on the part of the woman who I support .... There was a process. I thought at the time everybody agreed to it. I didn't hear any objections from the candidates .... So I think the Democratic National Committee would leave it where it is."

When asked about Clinton's claims about how to count the popular vote and her comparison of her plight to the civil rights movement, Paterson said, "You have to assume she won 100 percent to nothing in Michigan. I don't think anybody in their right mind would do that, nor would they see it as a civil rights issue."

If the audience is voters, the Clintons are reaching some of them, but for what purpose? If you read the blogs, you find some comments expressing distress at the prospect of Hillary losing, with some of them complaining about Florida and Michigan, as if including these states would make the critical difference. These are the Democratic voters threatening to sit out the general election or vote for McCain. Is that what Hillary and Bill are trying to accomplish -- to increase the number of disgruntled Democratic voters and make winning the general election harder? Whether this is their purpose, or not, clearly their behavior is having this effect.

Both Clintons graduated from a respected law school so I think it is safe to say they are smart enough to know their arguments about disenfranchisement of voters and their new preference for the "popular vote," as they selectively calculate it, have no weight. But they don't want to quit and the only way to justify staying in the obviously lost race is to build their own sense of aggrievement to the level of self-righteousness, and, like most confabulators, they have begun to believe their own propaganda.

Hillary and Bill are not acting like leaders, they are acting like self-absorbed adolescents, thinking that if they whine loudly enough people will accommodate them. This is not leadership, this is petulance. They will go down in this race, but not without their own sense of righteousness and value intact. This conveniently avoids the unpleasant prospect of actually taking responsibility for why they lost.

Introspection does not come easy to the Clintons, but during the next four years, let's hope they try some.

Hillary Is Trying to Drive Dems Into a Dead End on Foreign Policy

In recent weeks, Hillary Clinton has increased her attack on Barack Obama, arguing that foreign policy experience is essential to "being ready on Day One." Sen. Clinton thinks this argument will bring her closer to the presidency, but she is actually painting herself, and Democrats, into a corner in the general election, for, whatever one may think about her or Sen. Obama's foreign policy credentials, they certainly are less than John McCain's.

Democrats cannot run the general election campaign on the question of who has more foreign policy experience, or experience, in general, because the answer to those questions will be John McCain, even though most of his foreign experience is military. The Democratic campaign will have to be about which candidate has demonstrated the best judgment in foreign affairs, not who has the most experience. Which one endorsed and supported the greatest foreign policy fiasco in modern American history? Which continued to support this war long after every possible justification for it had collapsed? Whose belligerent statements would increase the chance of war with Iran? In answering these questions -- the questions Democrats will have to emphasize in a campaign against McCain -- Hillary Clinton doesn't fare so well.

First of all, it is not clear where Hillary derives the foreign policy "experience" advantage she claims, if not her eight years in the White House as first lady. But when did the American presidency become a monarchy? When did the first lady role morph into the queen? No first lady, including Hillary, has been tasked with foreign policy assignments. As first lady, the main purpose of her foreign travel was to engage in ceremonial events. There was nothing wrong with that, of course, but being hostess or guest at dinner parties is not "commander-in-chief" experience any more than Obama's experience living abroad is foreign policy experience. In fact, it can plausibly be argued that living in a foreign country, which Obama has done, provides a deeper understanding of how the rest of the world thinks than bopping into a country for a day or two to schmooze with a Saudi oligarch. If her foreign policy role was more than that, why has she refused to release her White House papers so voters could see evidence of what her "experience" claims are based on?

Whatever her actual level of "experience," since entering the U.S. Senate, Clinton has been one of the most hawkish of Democrats, including, of course, her vote for the October 2002 Iraq Resolution which led to war with Iraq. She and Bill have tried to explain that vote on the grounds that President Bush's true intentions, and the debacle Iraq would soon become, were "unknown and unknowable." These claims cannot withstand scrutiny, however. Long before October 2002, there were abundant reasons not to trust anything Bush/Cheney said about Iraq.

Long before October 2002, there existed a large body of scholarship that detailed the regional and religious conflicts that would erupt in Iraq if Saddam were removed. Two of the best predictors of the fiasco that Iraq would become, were President George H.W. Bush and his national security advisor, Brent Scowcroft, both of whom had written well-known articles and memoirs about why Baghdad should not be invaded -- in the case of Scowcroft, in a New York Times Op-Ed shortly before the vote on the Iraq Resolution. And these warnings were not lost on the large majority of Democrats in Congress; in fact, 148 Democrats in Congress (125 in the House and 23 in the Senate) saw through the smoke and mirrors, accurately perceived that Bush/Cheney would use the resolution to invade Iraq and voted against the resolution.

Hillary Clinton missed all the clues, took the Republican bait, and made one of the worst foreign policy decisions in modern American history. As recently as December 2005, Clinton wrote a letter to her constituents defending her war vote. While she now favors troop withdrawals, her turn against the war followed the opinion of a majority of Democratic voters by more than two years. Is following public opinion the type of leadership that "experience" produces? If it is, maybe we need less of it.

Clinton fell into the same hawk trap by voting for the Kyl-Lieberman resolution (Obama opposed it), which labeled part of the Iranian national army, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, "a terrorist organization." Aside from the fact that Iran has played a very cautious role in Iraq and seeks a long-term accommodation with the United States in Iraq, labeling the Iranian Revolutionary Guards a "terrorist organization" establishes the pre-conditions for a military attack on Iran, just as Bill Clinton's call for "regime change" in Iraq was the predicate for attacking Iraq. Once Democrats, like Hillary Clinton, label part of the Iranian Army a "terrorist organization," how can they complain when Bush attacks the Guards without appearing weak on "terrorism." The Clintons play chess one move at a time; they simply are no match for Republicans, who see the whole board and plan several moves ahead.

The problem of Clinton's poor instincts on foreign policy is compounded by the hawkish foreign policy advisors she has surrounded herself with, the most important of which are Madeleine Albright, Richard Holbrooke, Lee Feinstein and Sandy Berger. Former Secretary of State Albright is the person of whom Colin Powell's chief of staff, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, once said, "She never met a military option she didn't like. When I worked at Defense, she used to scare us." When Colin Powell urged the new Clinton administration not to bomb Bosnia too hastily, she countered, "What's the use of having his superb military that you're always talking about if we can't use it?" "I thought I would have an aneurysm," Powell would later write.

Perhaps an even more problematic member of the Clinton foreign policy team is Richard Holbrooke, who Clinton insiders say would be the most likely secretary of state in a new Clinton administration. Holbrooke certainly is not short on foreign policy experience, having been an assistant secretary of state for East Asia and ambassador to the United Nations, but his track record should cause all progressives concern. Holbrooke, described by pundits as, "The raging bull of U.S. diplomacy," cultivated and supported Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos, supported Indonesia during its brutal occupation of East Timor and backed the generals behind the Kwangyi massacre in South Korea. He supported Bill Clinton's signing a bill calling for "regime change" in Iraq -- the predicate for the Bush/Cheney led invasion. Thanks to Richard and Bill, Bush and Cheney were able to say "regime change in Iraq is American policy." In his last press conference as U.N. ambassador, Holbrooke called Saddam Hussein "a clear and present danger at all times" and said the incoming Bush administration, "will have to deal with this problem." Supported by this push from the Clintons, Bush/Cheney and the neoconservatives were only too happy to oblige. As late as December 2005, with the Iraq war collapsing around Bush/Cheney, when asked what he recommended in Iraq, Holbrooke responded, "I'm not prepared to lay out a detailed policy or strategy." Holbrooke provides lots of experience and a great resume but outstandingly bad judgment.

Lee Feinstein is rumored to be in line for the critical position of National Security Advisor in a new Clinton administration. Like many Clinton foreign policy advisors, Feinstein enthusiastically supported invading Iraq, and in April 2003, shortly after the invasion, confidently assured CNN that "U.S. forces over time will find weapons of mass destruction and also find evidence of programs to build weapons of mass destruction" in Iraq, even when it was becoming apparent they would not. Feinstein expanded his theories of unilateral, pre-emptive intervention in an article he co-authored in Foreign Affairs, where he championed the "duty to prevent." He argued that the United States should try to build coalitions, but that it can attack sovereign nations without support from allies. He went even further, arguing that Bush's controversial, and internationally illegal, doctrine of preemptive war "does not go far enough." The logic of his argument would be that his concept of widespread violations of international law is crucial to strengthening international law. We see, once again, that deep foreign policy experience is serving the Clinton advisors so well.

Other top Clinton foreign policy advisors, such as Kenneth Pollack, Jack Keane and Michael O'Hanlon, strongly supported President Bush's troop surge in Iraq. This could be why, during Bush's recent State of the Union address, when Bush claimed that the surge was a success, Clinton stood and cheered while Obama remained seated and silent.

It should be noted that not every one of Clinton's foreign policy advisors is a stone-cold hawk. Gen. Wesley Clark and former ambassador Joseph Wilson have nuanced understandings of foreign policy, and neither supported the war in Iraq. Clark, in particular, understands not only the uses of military power but also its limitations. I hope he will serve an important role in the next Democratic administration, regardless of who wins the presidency. Experience is not always disabling.

In contrast to Clinton, in the critical months prior to the launch of the war in 2003, with public opinion running strongly in favor of invading Iraq, Obama openly challenged the Bush administration's exaggerated claims and astutely predicted that a war in Iraq would lead to an increase of Islamic extremism, terrorism and regional instability, as well as a decline in respect for America throughout the world. Obama is a case study of good judgment trumping a resume.

While nearly all of Clinton's stable of foreign policy advisors were strong supporters of Bush's invasion of Iraq, almost every one of Obama's foreign policy team opposed the U.S. invasion. Obama advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Carter's national security advisor, warned that the international community would consider invasion of a nation that posed no threat to the United States to be an illegal act of aggression. Bzezinski said "without a respected and legitimate law enforcer, global security could be in serious jeopardy." Another key foreign policy advisor to Obama, Joseph Cirincione, argued that containing Saddam already had been achieved, saying, "Saddam Hussein is effectively incarcerated and under watch by a force that could respond immediately and devastatingly to any aggression."

While Clinton and most of her advisors have been strong supporters of virtually unlimited defense spending, some of Obama's key advisors, like Lawrence Korb, have expressed serious concerns about the enormous waste from excessive defense spending. While most of Clinton's advisors, like Madeleine Albright and Sandy Berger, have been strong supporters of globalization, some even being architects of it, Obama's advisors have raised questions. Susan Rice, an Obama advisor and an expert on Africa in the Clinton administration, has emphasized how globalization has led to uneven development that has contributed to destabilization and extremism.

Stephen Zunes, a foreign policy analyst for Foreign Policy in Focus, comparing Sens. Clinton and Obama, has written:

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Can John Edwards Pass the Leadership Test?

John Edwards ran a campaign of integrity and ideas, which he and his supporters can be very proud of. He spoke for a tradition of populist progressivism, which long has had too few advocates. He spoke of a need to change America, to change America's priorities. But now that he has bowed to the inevitable fact that the Democratic Presidential candidate will be Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, the question becomes, "Can John Edwards pass the test of leadership?"

Can he provide direction to the 15% of Democrats who supported him in the primaries? Can he use this moment in time, this opportunity, to advance the causes he believes in? Can he support the candidate who more closely represents his ideals, or will he be cautious, unwilling to choose, unwilling to lead?

There can be no doubt that ideologically John Edwards stands closer to Barack Obama than to Hillary Clinton. This was evident in the Democratic presidential debates. Despite the successes of Edwards and Obama in life and politics, both are true political outsiders -- mavericks in a sea of conventional wisdom.

Indeed, the Clintons not only represent the status quo, they embody one of the Americas John Edwards so eloquently described -- the well-connected, powerful, prosperous America which is doing well, which has benefited by globalization, which has secure jobs. This is the America the Clintons courted and pandered to during Bill Clinton's presidency, and which they continue to represent. This is the America of special interests, which is as comfortable with the Clintons as with Republicans. But it is not the other America that John Edwards spoke so passionately about.

Certainly, there must be the temptation for Edwards to step back and let the two remaining combatants battle it out. This path offers Edwards the easy option of hedging his bets, perhaps in the hope that he will retain credibility with the ultimate winner and be able to advance his issues, and, dare I say it, his own interests after the election.

On examination, however, this path offers Edwards nothing at all. Let's assume -- and I think it is a fair assumption -- that, for the reasons stated above, there is no chance Edwards would endorse Clinton and that the choice he faces is endorsing no one or endorsing Obama. If he stands mute and Clinton wins, she will owe him nothing and she will not even be interested in his concerns; the best he will get is a courtesy lunch or a sub-Cabinet position in a non-critical department. On the other hand, if he fails to help Obama now, when help is most important, the leverage he will have with a victorious Obama would be much diminished than what it is now -- such is the essence of politics, a brutal blood sport. On the other hand, should Edwards see the wisdom of endorsing Obama now, his leverage would be greater than it will ever be and he can deal for commitments to support his poverty agenda, and perhaps even for an important position in an Obama Administration.

Surely I am not the first to think of John Edwards as Attorney General and if Obama were to make such a commitment, it would be no sell-out of values because John Edwards not only is eminently qualified to be AG, he may well be the most qualified Democratic attorney in America to be AG in a Democratic Administration.

I supported John Edwards in the 2004 Democratic primaries and donated to his campaign this time around. I have watched him grow in stature as a politician since the day in June 2003 when he appeared at an event at my house to explain to me and 75 other Democrats who he was and what he stood for. He ran a great campaign in 2004 and he ran a better one this time, but it was just not to be. But having come as far as he has come, he is not done.

He owes it to his supporters, to progressive Democrats, to all Democrats, and to all the voiceless people he speaks for to provide leadership and direction about what direction this country should go and who should lead them as the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2008. Silence, or none of the above, should not be an option.

AlterNet is a non profit organization and does not make political endorsements. The opinions expressed by our writers are their own.

Hillary Clinton Might Be the Least Electable Democrat

Last Sunday's New York Times contained an op-ed by Frank Rich ("Who's Afraid of Barack Obama," Dec. 2) suggesting that, for a variety of reasons, Barack Obama is the Democrat the Republicans fear most. While Rich emphasized Obama's authenticity, his early and unequivocal opposition to the Iraq war and his cross-over appeal to independents and Republicans, missing from his otherwise excellent article were polling results confirming why Republicans fear an Obama presidential candidacy and why they would prefer to run against Hillary Clinton.

While Clinton maintains her lead in national polling among Democrats, in direct matchups against Republican presidential candidates, she consistently runs behind both Barack Obama and John Edwards. In the recent national Zogby Poll (Nov. 26, 2007), every major Republican presidential candidate beats Clinton: McCain beats her 42 percent to 38 percent; Giuliani beats her 43 percent to 40 percent; Romney beats her 43 percent to 40 percent; Huckabee beats her 44 percent to 39 percent; and Thompson beats her 44 percent to 40 percent, despite the fact Thompson barely appears to be awake most of the time.

By contrast, Obama beats every major Republican candidate: He beats McCain 45 percent to 38 percent; Guiliani 46 percent to 41 percent; Romney 46 percent to 40 percent; Huckabee 46 percent to 40 percent; and, Thompson 47 percent to 40 percent. In other words, Obama consistently runs 8 to 11 percent stronger than Clinton when matched against Republicans. To state the obvious: The Democratic presidential candidate will have to run against a Republican.

Clinton's inherent weakness as a candidate shows up in other ways. In direct matchups for congressional seats, Democrats currently are running 10 percent to 15 percent ahead of Republicans, depending on the poll, while Clinton runs 3 percent to 7 percent behind -- a net deficit ranging from 13 to 22 percent. No candidate in presidential polling history ever has run so far behind his or her party.

To look at Clinton's candidacy another way, Clinton runs well behind generic polling for the presidency: In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted Nov. 1-5, 2007, voters were asked, "Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for the outcome of the 2008 presidential election -- that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president?" By 50 percent to 35 percent, voters chose "Democrat" -- a 15-point edge. Thus, Clinton is running 10 to 15 percent, or more, behind the generic Democratic candidate. This is not a promising metric nor the numbers of a strong candidate.

Look at Iowa: It is neck-and-neck, with Obama, Clinton and Edwards running close among the first tier of Democratic candidates. But Clinton is the only woman running against seven men, yet polls only around 25 percent. When you have been in the public eye for 15 years and are well-known, when your husband was a popular president and remains perhaps the most popular Democrat in America, when you are the only female candidate in a race against seven men, but you are polling just 25 percent, you are not a strong candidate.

I had occasion last week to speak for an hour and a half with a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in a battleground state. Without revealing who I favored in the Democratic primary, I asked, "Who would help you the most at the top of the Democratic ticket in November 2008?" Without hesitation, the candidate [who cannot take a public position in the presidential primary] responded: "I can tell you who would hurt me the most -- Hillary Clinton. She has 30-40 percent of voters in my state who never would vote for her under any circumstances, and she is no one's second choice. Her support is lukewarm, at best."

In a recent article in the New Republic, Thomas F. Schaller quoted two Midwestern politicians about the negative effect of having Clinton lead the Democratic ticket in 2008. Missouri House Minority Whip Connie Johnson warned, "If Hillary comes to the state of Missouri, we can write it off." Democratic state Rep. Dave Crooks of Indiana stated, "I'm not sure it (Clinton candidacy) would be fatal in Indiana, but she would be a drag."

Karl Rove recently commented on Hillary's candidacy, observing that she had the highest "unfavorable" ratings of any presidential candidate in modern polling history. In the USA/Gallup Poll, over the past two years, Clinton's "unfavorable" ratings have ranged from 40 percent to 52 percent and currently are running 45 percent -- far higher than any other Democratic or Republican presidential hopeful and higher than any presidential candidate at this stage in polling history. Hillary Clinton may be the most well-known, recognizable candidate, but that is proving to be as much a burden as a benefit.

Another factor to consider is the power of Clinton to unify the opposition. While the field of Republican candidates is uninspiring, if not grim, Clinton is a galvanizing force for conservatives. While Clinton-hatred may be unfair (I happen to think it is), the intensity of animosity conservatives have reserved for the Clintons is unprecedented. They want to run against her not only because she may be the weakest candidate, but also because they hate her and what they think she stands for. I am not endorsing this hatred, which I consider irrational and destructive, but Democrats need to consider that her candidacy, more than any other Democratic candidate, has the potential to motivate and activate the opposition.

To be fair, it should be noted that not all polls find Clinton on the short end of polling disparities, and some have found her polling at parity, or sometimes even slightly ahead, of Republicans (generally, within the margin of polling error). But this should not obscure the main point: By every measure, Clinton's support runs well behind congressional Democrats, well behind generic Democrats and, generally, behind her Democratic presidential rivals in matchups with Republicans.

Bill: When will the other shoe drop?

Every presidential candidate inspires humor. In the case of Bill and Hillary, it is an avalanche, including the "Hillary Spanking Bill Clinton Whipping Magnet" for refrigerators across America. But what about Bill's proven 30-year history of womanizing? Should we assume these patterns have disappeared? Or should we assume there may be more revelations about Bill's continuing liaisons with women that Republicans will produce during the general election, taking voters back to memories of Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers and Monica Lewinsky, with Hillary playing the role of Bill's enabler? Given Bill's past conduct, wouldn't it be prudent for Democratic voters to assume this is an additional liability a Clinton candidacy might have to carry in the general election?

When the beginning point for Clinton is at or behind her Republican opponent, and 10 to 15 points behind the Democratic Party, how many liabilities can her candidacy sustain? Even if there is less than a 50 percent chance of more revelations about Bill, is it wise for Democratic voters to ignore this risk, roll the dice and take that chance when the presidency is at stake?

If Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, I will support her candidacy and hope for the best, because I am not sure much of America would be left after another four to eight years of a Republican presidency. But shouldn't Democrats be thinking strategically about who comes to the table with more strengths, fewer liabilities and fewer potential game-changing surprises? I sure hope so.

The Dems Need an Iran Strategy ASAP

Democrats are almost giddy about their prospects of winning the presidency and increasing their majorities in the House and Senate. In fact, in the November/December 2007 issue of Mother Jones magazine, Simon Rosenberg and Peter Leyden of the New Democrat Network even predict a 50-year shift of power to Democrats.

Due to the near-complete collapse of conservative ideas and policies, Democrats have an opening and perhaps even a strong hand to play, but they are underestimating the Republican trump card and Bush's willingness to play it -- national security. In fact, Democrats are woefully unprepared for what is likely to happen between now and next November.

The last three federal elections have been decided on security issues, with the Republicans winning two of them. Even in 2006, with the Iraq war collapsing around the Republicans, according to a Quinlin Greenberg poll, 22 percent of voters said "protecting America from terrorism" was their No. 1 voting priority and these "security voters" broke 74 percent to 24 percent for Republicans. On all other issues, Democrats maintain 20-plus point advantages over Republicans. In light of such facts, which are well-known, should we assume the Republicans, specifically Bush, Cheney and Rove (who continues to advise Bush) will let the election be dominated by Democratic issues? Shouldn't we assume Bush/Cheney will play the one strong card they have? These people have proved their willingness to lie, cheat, manipulate, create fear and even go to war against a country which posed no threat when it served their political purposes. In short, we must assume the worst -- that they will take aggressive action against Iran, most likely an air attack -- before November 2008.

Democrats are not merely unprepared for this, they appear to be traumatized by it. Given a mandate by voters in November 2006 to wind down the Iraq war, they splintered, proved incapable of uniting and failed to use the authority expressly given to them by the Constitution -- the power to withhold funding. In fact, many Democrats are continuing to blame Republicans for the impasse on Iraq, contending that they need a filibuster-proof 60 votes in the Senate to put conditions on funding to stop or wind down the war when, in fact, all they need to stop continued war funding is a simple majority in the House (which they have) and 41 votes in the Senate (which they have). In short, if the Democrats were as resolute in what they believed as the Republicans, the Iraq war would be well on the way to meeting the Iraq Study Group Report recommendation of near-complete withdrawal by March 2008. Instead, Dick Cheney's prediction in October 2006 that the November 2006 election results would not matter, as he and Bush would continue to prosecute the war regardless of the election results, has proved to be 100 percent accurate.

Democrats are fragmented and disorganized, blood is in the water and Bush/Cheney are set to exploit this disarray to the Republicans' advantage.

Sometime in March 2008, soon after the Democratic presidential nominee is identified by the presidential primaries, we should expect the Republican drumbeat about Iran to crescendo and the Republicans in Congress to promote an Iran resolution much like the one they foisted on the Democrats in October 2002, shortly before the 2002 midterm elections, where they crushed the Democrats. They will claim the resolution will not specifically authorize war against Iran, that its purpose will be to strengthen Bush's hand in negotiations with Iran, but which will be broad enough in its terms to be used for an attack on Iran by Bush/Cheney. Democrats will whine and moan, but the more conservative Democrats, approximately 75 in the House and 25 in the Senate, fearing accusations of not being "strong on defense," will cringe and crumble and sign on with the Republicans. A charade of "negotiation" will ensue, punctuated by claims insurgents in Iraq are being supplied by Iran, and perhaps even that Iranians are moving into Iraq, and in late fall 2008 (my guess is Oct. 1) Bush will authorize an air attack on Iranian targets to (1) protect our soldiers in Iraq and (2) reduce the Iran nuclear threat (a still-unproven threat). Act One in this drama already has occurred, with the Republicans promoting a resolution (Kyl-Lieberman) in the Senate to brand the Iranian Revolutionary Guards a "terrorist organization" (the first time a part of any national army has been so branded). Predictably, 25 Democratic senators, including Hillary Clinton, voted for this resolution and it passed 76-22. The resolution was nonbinding, but the exercise displayed for all to see the inherent weakness and lack of self-confidence of Democrats on national security issues.

Attacking Iran would be mostly symbolic, but would have disastrous consequences

Attacking Iran would not protect American soldiers in Iraq. Almost certainly, it would have exactly the opposite effect. American soldiers already are stretched to the max in Iraq; replacements and reinforcements are not available. According to Maj. Gen. Paul D. Eaton (ret.), who was commanding general in the Office of Security Transition in charge of training the Iraqi military from 2003-2004, even without the added pressures of an attack on Iran, the current "15-month tours will break the Army." Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel, a decorated Vietnam War veteran, said last week that "the answer to dealing with Iran will not be found in a military operation. The U.S. is currently bogged down in two wars. Our military is terribly overburdened, and we are doing great damage to our force structure and readiness capabilities."

The United States does not have the capacity to widen a ground war and take on a nation with more than double the population of Iraq. Attacking Iran by air risks Iran retaliating by sending armed forces and advanced weaponry into Iraq, which, to date, Iran has not done. Iran also has the capacity to send armed forces into neighboring nations, such as Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Lebanon, creating a wider war front, as well as increasing its political reach. Last week, Eaton confirmed that "the United States has insufficient forces in Iraq to defend from an Iranian attack." He added, "Iran has the capacity to send thousands of soldiers into Iraq in 4-9 person teams, armed with rocket-propelled grenades to support the Iraq insurgency; the U.S. does not have sufficient forces to respond to this." Eaton also said that Iran is believed to have "sleeper cells" throughout the Middle East, increasing the chance of widespread asymmetrical warfare the United States is not prepared to counter. The prospect of putting our soldiers in Iraq at much greater risk and transforming a one-nation war into regional war is real.

The downside to attacking Iran is even deeper. If Iran controls Hezbollah and Hezbollah is as dangerous as everyone says it is, attacking Iran could lead directly to "nonattributive" terrorist attacks on American soil. It wouldn't take a nuclear device or dirty bomb to disrupt the American economy. A few suicide bombers and/or "suitcase bombs" in crowded transportation hubs, shopping malls, movie theaters or perhaps an NFL football stadium would cause major economic dislocations in the United States. Iran also could close the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 percent of the world's oil supplies must pass, with sea mines and cut off oil to the West; Iran could attack Iraqi, and perhaps even Saudi, oil production. If world oil prices hit $200 a barrel, the world economy, already weak, would be seriously threatened -- a global depression is even possible. And while the United States gets relatively little oil from the Middle East, China, Russia and Japan get most of their oil there. Are they going to sit by quietly while the United States threatens or diminishes their oil supplies? China and Russia have a great capacity for mischief and the unintended consequences of attacking Iran could be dramatic.

At a minimum, China has the capacity to stop buying U.S. bonds or even begin selling their huge supply of U.S. dollars, further depressing the value of the U.S. dollar, already at historic lows. And, Russia, which is building close economic relations with Iran, likely would provide more sophisticated weaponry to Iran in the event of a U.S. attack, including advanced anti-aircraft weapons. Hagel said last week, "The challenge of Iran will not be successfully met without Russia and China and the world community." It will not successfully be met by jeopardizing China's and Russia's oil supplies.

Attacking Iran also will unite the Iranian population against America for a generation, the Arab street throughout the Middle East will become even more hostile to America and the world community, with the exception of Israel and possibly a few other nations, will condemn the United States Can our position in the world get worse? Yes.

Lastly, a "surgical strike" at Iran's nuclear program would largely be a fiction. First, we should not assume U.S. intelligence about where Iran's nuclear development sites are located is any better than the faulty intelligence about Iraq's supposed WMDs. Second, current U.S. "bunker busters" (aka "penetrating warheads") do not have the capacity to bust into deep underground bunkers. In fact, dropping a series of bunker busters would liquefy the soil around the bunkers and make them even more impregnable. The only way to knock out the bunkers is with nuclear weapons, but nuclear weapons and the radioactive fallout from them could cause millions of deaths and casualties, and not just in Iran. Last year, Gen. Wesley Clark stated that Iran's nuclear program could not be stopped by an air attack alone, and last week Maj. Gen. Eaton confirmed that assessment. Thus, a Bush/Cheney decision to bomb Iran largely would be symbolic, designed perhaps for an audience of American voters, but not to fundamentally alter realities on the ground, except to diminish U.S. standing in world opinion -- already at historic lows.

In the alternative, Bush could attack the many Iranian Revolutionary Guard encampments. Of course, the Democrats who voted to condemn the Revolutionary Guards as "a terrorist organization" have left themselves wide open to this; if the guards are "terrorists," how will those Democrats be able to object to an air attack? Remember, Bush/Cheney were not the ones who made "regime change" in Iraq official U.S. policy; credit for that belongs to Bill Clinton and congressional Democrats who collaborated with Republicans in 1998 to accomplish this. Democrats play chess one move at a time; Republicans seem to be able to see the whole board.

If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, and her past behavior is a guide, we can expect cautiousness and triangulation on Iran, and perhaps even outright support for military action. Already, she has fallen into the Republican trap of supporting the Kyl-Lieberman Senate resolution characterizing a part of the Iranian national army as a "terrorist organization." This is the kind of rhetoric which Sen. Hagel recently called "the lowest common denominator of 'who can talk the toughest' and who is the 'meanest cowboy on the block.' That kind of rhetoric ... political as it may be ... will only drive the world further away from America and deepen a world crisis ... that we may not be able to recover from." Democrats falling in line with Republican "cowboy" rhetoric and behavior on Iran sets up the prospect that the 2008 election could mirror 1968, when progressive opponents of the Vietnam War, outraged by Democratic inaction, deserted the Democratic Party, thereby helping to elect Richard Nixon. We could even see the rise of one or more third parties. Given Clinton's already record-high unfavorable poll numbers and her weak matchup poll numbers with Republican presidential candidates, it won't take much to tip the election to the Republicans.

Will the military dtop Bush/Cheney?

Important components of the U.S. military are opposed to military action in Iran. It has been reported that Adm. William Fallon, head of Central Command in Iraq (i.e., General Petraeus' boss) has said there will be no attack on Iran "on my watch." Think Progress, http://thinkprogress.org/2007/05/16/fallon-carrier/. And, it is rumored that 20-plus high-ranking army officers have already tendered resignations in case Iran is attacked. We should salute these brave officers for keeping sight of America's long-term interests in the Middle East mind, not the short-term political needs of Republicans, but the American tradition is civilian rule, not mutiny, and we should expect that no matter how many courageous military officers object, when the order is issued to attack Iran, it will be followed.

What can Democrats do?

Democrats cannot outbid, outspend, outcowboy or outhawk the Republican hawks; if Democrats play the "tough on Iran" military card, they will be chasing Bush/Cheney all the way into another unwinnable, war. From a strategic game-theory standpoint, those who are posturing "tough on Iran" are putting control of the game totally in the hands of the opponent. Isn't this the one lesson from the runup to the Iraq war that every Democrat should have learned? Democrats need to get ahead of this issue, not continue passively to respond to hawkish initiatives, like the Kyl-Lieberman resolution, which accept all the hawk assumptions and set the table for war.

The "hooks" Bush likely will use to justify attacking Iran will be twofold: (1) He is protecting American troops in Iraq, and (2) he is preventing World War III by stopping Iran's nuclear program. Democrats need to attack, as well as put into context, both claims. While there may be some Iranians in Iraq supporting their Shiite compatriots, and some of the IED's found in Iraq may have been manufactured in Iran, Iran has been remarkably cautious about arming or supporting Iraqi insurgents, particularly given the fact that Iran has 300,000 American soldiers and mercenaries on its borders. While Ahmadenijad -- like Bush and Cheney -- has been bellicose, Iran's actual behavior in Iraq has been cautious. One prominent national security expert, Peter Galbraith, even has argued that Iran is our natural ally in Iraq, as Iran does not want continued instability on its borders, and both Iran and the United States support the Shiite-dominated Maliki government in Iraq. This provides Democrats the opportunity to make the case -- perhaps through investigative hearings featuring testimony by military commanders -- that attacking Iran will put American soldiers in Iraq more at risk, not less. Adm. Fallon, testifying in Congress about his doubts about taking military action against Iran and his "not on my watch" statement, might take the initiative from the Bush-Hawks and change the terms of public debate in more sensible directions. Army commanders testifying in public about "breaking the Army" with multiple 15-month tours of duty and not having sufficient forces available in Iraq to contend with Iranian retaliation might change perceptions about which party "supports the troops."

Democrats also need to deal with the Iran nuclear threat for what it is -- a potential long-term threat, but not an immediate threat. In fact, many security experts, including United Nations chief inspector El Baradei, say Iran's nuclear threat will not be realized for five years or more. We know it is possible to deal with such threats diplomatically because last February the Bush administration made a deal with another member of the "Axis of Evil," North Korea, to dismantle North Korea's nuclear program in favor of promises of economic aid. Bush has been remarkably quiet about this -- perhaps his one legitimate foreign policy success -- but there is no reason for Democrats to be quiet about the possibility of diplomacy working, as it worked in North Korea. Furthermore, there have been efforts by Iran to forge a game-changing deal with the United States. As Trita Parsi's book Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the United States shows, in May 2003, the Iranian government sent a proposal to the United States via its Swiss ambassador proposing a deal in which Iran would freeze its nuclear program in exchange for an end to U.S. hostility. As explained in the book, as well as Peter Galbraith's article published in AlterNet, the deal was summarily rejected by Bush/Cheney, but now with the United States so much weaker in Iraq, and with its real options limited in Iran, diplomacy, and a deal, should be pursued, just as the Iraq Study Group Report recommended. In short, there is no reason for Democrats, or anyone, to assume diplomacy has no chance of success.

Last week, Sen. Hagel gave a thoughtful, well-reasoned speech about Iran and the Middle East. Echoing the recommendation of the Iraq Study Group Report, he called for direct talks with Iran: "[N]ow is the time for the United States to actively pursue an offer of direct, unconditional, and comprehensive talks with Iran ... We should make clear that everything is on the table -- our issues and Iran's -- similar to the opportunity we squandered in 2003 for comprehensive talks with Iran." Hagel added, "We must be clear that the United States does not ... does not ... seek regime change in Iran. There can be no ambiguity on this point. This should include offering Iran a credible way back in from the fringes of the international community, security guarantees if it is willing to give nuclear weapons ambitions, as well as other incentives ... Creative approaches like these, rather than war speeches and talk of World War III, would strengthen our ability across the board to deal with Iran. Our friends and allies and international institutions would be more confident to stand with us, not just because of our power, but rather because they trusted our purpose, our words and our actions. It could create a new dynamic in U.S.-Iran relations, in part by incentivizing the Iranians to react to the possibility of better relations with the West because it is in their interests ... By refusing to engage Iran in direct, unconditional and comprehensive talks, we are perpetuating dangerous geopolitical unpredictabilities."

Let us salute Republican Sen. Hagel for his insights and courage to speak forthrightly about Iran, but shouldn't we expect the same from Democrats?

Two weeks ago, Rep. John Tierney, who sits on the House Select Committee on Intelligence and chairs a National Security and Foreign Affairs subcommittee, initiated a series of subcommittee hearings, inviting experts to teach Congress about Iran, such as what the Iranian people want, where power lay in the Iranian government, how Iran might be engaged diplomatically, what the costs of military intervention in Iran might be, etc. And, recently, Sen. Jim Webb (former Secretary of the Navy) sent a letter to President Bush contending "that offensive military action should not be taken against Iran without the express consent of Congress." As Steve Clemons, who directs the American Strategies program at the New America Foundation, and others, have argued, in light of the Kyl-Lieberman resolution, Democrats need to get 50 votes on something, even a nonbinding resolution, even a letter to the president, showing that a majority of the Senate opposes an attack on Iran. This is an opportunity for leadership from Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Christopher Dodd and Joe Biden -- the Democratic presidential candidates from the U.S. Senate. Can one, or more, of them rise to the occasion and bring some sanity to the discussion of Iran?

Conclusion

Three months ago, I attended a two-day Democratic Party policy discussion. The featured luncheon speaker on the second day was famed Democratic strategist James Carville, whose topic was the 2008 elections. Carville provided a rousing, rosy picture of Democratic opportunities in 2008, but missing from his discussion was any mention of national security contingencies. During the Q & A, a major Democratic donor asked Carville how the Democratic Party would respond to a major act of terrorism or a manufactured security event, such as Iran. With Nancy Pelosi sitting nearby, Carville answered, "I don't have a clue; that is way above my pay station."

If the Democrats hope to avoid another crushing, demoralizing defeat in a presidential election, as well as prevent America from digging an even deeper hole in the Middle East, they will need more than a clue, they will need a coherent strategy about what to do about Iran, and the sooner the better.

Third Way Is the Wrong Way

An organization has emerged in Washington, D.C., Third Way, which claims to be both centrist and progressive and which has gained a foothold of influence with some Democratic lawmakers. It is important to assess if Third Way's political strategy makes sense, and to examine whether Third Way is undermining progressives' efforts.

Third Way's seminal political philosophy is set forth in the "The Politics of Polarization," written by Bill Galston and Elaine Kamarck, which informs Third Way's perspective and direction. "The Politics of Polarization," which Third Way rolled out under the banner, "Third Way Releases Groundbreaking Report," is a long document, but it is predicated on one core premise -- a premise that I think is not only utterly fallacious, but one which attempts to lead Democrats in the wrong political direction. The core premise of "The Politics of Polarization" is that more people self-identify as "conservatives" (32%) than "liberals" (20%), so polarizing the electorate favors Republicans, not Democrats. Thus, Democrats must trend toward the center and/or conservative positions to attract the "moderates," and avoid supporting clear, but polarizing, "liberal" positions.

If the fact that more people self-identify as conservatives were used only as description, there would be no problem, but the problem arises from the failure to understand why this is so, what it means and doesn't mean, why it is not immutable and what we should do about it.

The fact that more people self-identify as conservatives, of course, should surprise no one and required no poll: Conservatives have had the benefit of a huge infrastructure -- approximately $400 million per year -- attacking liberals and advancing "conservatism" for nearly 30 years, with little response from Democrats or the left in defense of "liberals." Even today, with the tide shifting to Democrats, I don't hear Democrats calling themselves "liberals." Indeed, most of us call ourselves "progressives," at least in part to avoid being designated as "liberals." So, with a viciously effective 30+ year attack on the very concept of "liberal," it should surprise no one that more people self-identify as conservatives.

But what does this mean? Indeed, what does it even mean to be a "conservative?" "The Politics of Polarization" doesn't help much here, as the terms "conservative," "liberal" and "moderate" lack any definitions in it. And, here is where "The Politics of Polarization" and Third Way makes their first big mistake: They fail to understand or factor into the analysis the single most dominant political fact of the past 30 years, to wit, the radical change in the meaning of "conservative." What conservatism meant to Theodore Roosevelt and Dwight Eisenhower, or even Barry Goldwater, is radically different than what it means today in the Bush/Cheney world of phony-conservatism.

To put the point another way, I can even imagine a world where I might be happy with 32% conservatives if we could get back to Teddy Roosevelt's environmental conservatism (he called it "conservation") or Eisenhower's understanding of the limitations of military power and his distrust of the Military-Industrial complex. But that would require dealing with content, not just categories and self-definition, which "The Politics of Polarization" fails to do.

By accepting the content-less self-identification landscape as a given, "The Politics of Polarization" and Third Way essentially accept and "lock-in" the conservative/liberal status quo disparities. What "The Politics of Polarization" and Third Way choose not to do is precisely what made the conservative movement so effective: Challenge the existing status quo and educate the public about a new vision. What "The Politics of Polarization" and Third Way fail to do is precisely what progressives need to do: change the underlying terms and norms of political discussion.

"The Politics of Polarization" and Third Way back away from any such ideological confrontation because, in their opinion, "polarization" works for conservatives but it won't work for progressives. What flow from this, predictably, are policy positions which don't stray far from conventional wisdom -- see the Iraq example, which follows below -- despite the fact that conservatives in a relatively short period of time moved from the downside of 2-1 disparities to a dominant position in American politics by challenging then-conventional wisdom(s) and pushing the electorate in their direction. What "The Politics of Polarization" and Third Way miss is that the public is elastic and willing to move in the direction of new ideas, even liberal ideas, if they make sense and progressives promote them. While this has worked best for conservatives in recent years because they invested in, and disseminated ideas, it is neither inevitable nor permanent that conservative ideas will prevail -- unless, of course, we "lock in" current perceptions, fail to challenge them, and move millimeter-by-millimeter to attract center/moderate/conservatives, accepting many conservative assumptions in the process.

The DLC, Third Way and why their politics don't work any more

The Democratic Leadership Council, from which Third Way has descended ideologically, has long contended that Democrats need to align themselves with a so-called political center, and, to some extent, the election of Bill Clinton validated this strategy. The problem with continuing to adhere to this strategy, however, is that nearly two decades later, there is not much of a center to attract. The conservative movement, by declaring ideological warfare on Democrats, destroyed any remnants of a center consensus.

Conservatives recognized what they had wrought sooner; in fact, former Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd wrote Karl Rove a game-changing memo in which Dowd marveled that the unaligned "center" of the American electorate had disappeared, and, as political scientist Tom Schaller has well pointed out, in the 2000 presidential election, the number of split-ticket voters, which historically had been close to one quarter of the electorate, was 6%; the middle had disappeared. Soon thereafter, Bush's "compassionate conservative" theme disappeared and Rove announced publicly that he and the conservatives would target 4 million "likely Bush" evangelicals; by 2004, in an interview with The New Yorker magazine, Rove made clear that he didn't believe the center was a significant electoral factor and that, in any case, the "center" moves to the party which states its ideas with greater force and resolution, which Bush proceeded to do, while Kerry struggled to define himself as standing for anything. Mushy ideas do not beat clarity and conviction.

Third Way is quick to point out that the electorate is close to evenly divided, but, as Schaller also has argued, an evenly divided electorate does not mean a centrist electorate. Political scientists have been observing for years a more uniform and consistent set of ideologically divergent opinions among voters.

In short, America is more polarized and the focus on converting "centrist" voters is becoming less and less effective. Second, converting non-aligned "centrists" is very expensive and the results are highly over-rated. Many "converted" voters are unreliable voters, not only ideologically, but also in terms of voting at all; they may vote in a Presidential election, but they miss other elections, and may need much encouragement even to vote in the next Presidential election. By contrast, appealing to base voters is ideologically easier and more consistent with a party's self-identification because it doesn't require the sort of policy distortion and compromise which, in the long run, repels rather than attracts voters, and base voters, once motivated, are more likely to become permanent voters. Chasing the illusion of the center, as conservatives move further and further to the Right, doesn't work. It digs a deeper hole.

And a strategy to move toward the "center" clashes with the investment in civic engagement and voter mobilization, particularly in minority, women and working class communities. Such a strategy is particularly risky for Democrats because Democrats have a much greater potential for base mobilization growth than do conservatives because a larger percentage of the conservative base already votes, while a far greater percentage of the progressive base does not vote. In fact, as Schaller notes, the only demographic on the Democratic side which are relatively better mobilized are women relative to men and union members relative to non-union voters. Every racial minority -- with the possible exception of Cuban-Americans -- and non-union working class voters are under-mobilized, as are unmarried women and especially working class minorities: African-Americans reliably vote 90% for Democrats; Native Americans 80-90%; Latinos 55-65%; even Asian-Americans, whom Bill Clinton lost by 24 points, voted for Kerry in 2004 by a 17-point margin. The Democrats' "evangelicals" are working class minorities, particularly unmarried women, but all are short-changed by Third Way's theory of centrist-driven change.

The ideological war declared by the Right has caused Americans to take sides. The core question is what progressives have to offer. Only the old Democratic consultancy class and short-term thinkers like Third Way think the so-called "center" remains the key to victory. Republicans figured this out years ago, while the Democrats failed to learn the appropriate lessons from their 2000, 2002 and 2004 defeats. Amazingly, some groups like Third Way are proving equally incapable of learning from the 2006 victory, as well.

Iraq: A short case study

Up to this point, I have been discussing mostly political theory, but where does Third Way political leadership and messaging lead, in fact? Let's look briefly at Third Way's wandering and ineffective path on Iraq to see where pandering to the center goes.

Third Way supported the War in Iraq (all history of this support has been wiped from its website); Third Way has continued to tout its association with Ken Pollack, who, among other things, wrote "The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq," which was one of the major intellectual underpinnings for invading Iraq. With polls running against the war, Third Way moved with the polls, but slowly: In June, 2006 Third Way did training for the DCCC and advocated a "Tough and smart Iraq strategy -- one that protects our national security interests, calls for an exit based on events, not the calendar, and gives Iraq a real chance to succeed." At the time, George Bush was saying, "We will not put a date certain on when each stage of success will be reached -- because the timing of success depends upon meeting certain conditions."

Can anyone identify the differences in the Bush/Cheney and Third Way positions? I can't.

Ironically, the poll on national security released by Third Way last fall found that 30% of Democrats were unsure where Democrats stood on Iraq or which party would do a better job. Could the fact that Third Way at the time was training House members to espouse a position on Iraq that was indistinguishable from George Bush's have contributed to this voter confusion?

On March 29, 2006, three months before Third Way published its Iraq training materials, the House Democratic Leadership had released its "New Direction for America" platform, which among other things, called for 2006 to be, "A year of significant transition to full Iraq sovereignty ... with the responsible redeployment of U.S. forces."

So, while the public was confused about where Democrats stood on Iraq, Third Way was promoting positions on Iraq -- ones without timetables -- that the House Democratic leadership had repudiated! Events have moved to favor the imposition of timetables and the Democrats have become reasonably united on this approach, but Third Way, while claiming national security expertise and leadership, provided neither. Should Democrats follow an organization that has had a hard time differentiating itself from Bush/Cheney on Iraq? Should Democrats take advice from an organization that is trying to teach them how to mumble?

Third Way's later stuff on Iraq has been better, but it is tactical -- mainly attacking operational performance -- not the underlying assumptions of the war, and often missing the best arguments. Its most recent statements also have been written by someone with no apparent credentials on national security.

Without my launching into a long discourse, let me just mention a few things that the Third Way materials seem to have missed about Iraq. Third Way has argued that "Timetables are not popular," but this misses two very big, readily available, arguments: (1) 72% of GIs on the ground in Iraq think the US should withdraw in 6-12 months; and, (2) in the latest Pew Poll, 82% of Iraqis want the US to withdraw within 12 months and 61% say that killing Americans is justified. Why are we planning to stay in Iraq indefinitely if the guys on the ground know staying is futile and the Iraqis, for whom we allegedly are fighting and dying, don't want us to stay and, by a large majority, say it is OK to kill us?

More fundamentally, anyone with a passing knowledge of Middle East history (except, apparently, Ken Pollack) should have known the U.S. was walking into a hornet's nest in Iraq with virtually no chance of success. Iraq is not a natural nation; it is a nation cobbled together by European imperialists 90 years ago for purposes of oil exploitation and the underlying religious and sectarian conflicts predate the US invasion by at least 600 years.

If Third Way understood the historical landscape, they would have understood how fundamentally ridiculous Bush's "stay-the-course" and "victory" claims are; there simply is no way the US can outlast the religious, sectarian and regional conflicts that exist, and have existed for hundreds of years, in Iraq. The only remaining question is how many American soldiers and Iraqi citizens will be killed and maimed, and how deep America will be driven into financial insolvency, before sanity and rationality prevail. My prediction is that it won't be long, but Third Way has been in the way, not leading the way.

Here is the point of this recitation of recent history: At the same time the Democratic leadership was moving cautiously toward the inevitability of timetables for withdrawal, Third Way was telling Democrats to stay away from timetables ("Our exit must be based on events, not the calendar...."), and criticizing Bush for "not planning for victory," as though "victory" was actually possible (sound like John McCain?). Instead of explaining how hundreds of years of religious and sectarian conflict in a country cobbled together by European imperialists would make "victory" impossible, Third Way wrote, "The decision to go to war is a debate for historians," as though the historical forces that were making the American misadventure in Iraq fail were simply irrelevant.

And this is not all: In response to the charge that, "The situation in Iraq is a full-scale civil war, and our troops are just ducks in a shooting gallery. We have to get them out of there," Third Way counseled Democrats to defend the war and told Democrats the correct response was, "The situation in Iraq is very, very serious, but it is not a full-scale civil war, and I don't believe that it will be as long as our troops are there." By the way, Webster's Dictionary defines civil war as, "War between factions or regions of a single nation." In short, Third Way accepted the fundamental assumptions that underlay Bush's war. To put it another way, Third Way managed to lag behind the Democratic Party on Iraq! Third Way managed to be even more cautious, less visionary, more ahistoric -- and more fundamentally wrong about policy -- even than the Democrats. That is a pretty amazing accomplishment, but not one we should want to replicate.

Of course, by failing to criticize the assumptions of the Iraq mistake and, instead, claiming "victory" was possible, groups like Third Way open up the Democrats to the post-war claim -- which the Republicans are certain to make -- that the war was winnable, but for the fact that the appeasers and Democrats did not provide full, unflinching, unending support (the same claim they made about Vietnam). If future follows past form, Third Way will blame Democrats for not being sufficiently "tough and smart."

In the recent fight against the troop escalation in Iraq, some members of the broad coalition opposing escalation reached out to Third Way for support. Third Way did not support the coalition against escalation, Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, or even return phone calls, and apparently did no lobbying on the bill.

Remember, Democrats were able to pass the bills by one vote in the Senate and just a handful of votes in the House. Third Way is an organization that touts its connections in Congress and claims expertise and leadership on national security and foreign policy, but it was missing in action on these crucial votes. I have also been told that on other issues involving national security and foreign policy, Third Way does not collaborate or share information with other progressive organizations. Collaboration is supposed to be a progressive value, but you wouldn't know it watching Third Way.

Blowing up public housing is not a progressive value

Recently, Third Way's President, Jon Cowan, made a presentation to the Democracy Alliance, a center-left organization that is attempting to build progressive political infrastructure. Cowan spent his speech shouting at the audience and half his time explaining that when he worked at the Housing and Urban Development Department under Andrew Cuomo, he worked to "blow up public housing" and replace it with two and three-story public housing. He characterized his work as "modernizing" progressive ideas.

What Cowan failed to explain, however, is that much of the public housing blown up was sitting on valuable urban land and was replaced, not by low-income housing, but by developments of mid and high-priced condominiums, while the poor were moved farther from cities, and that some of the blown up housing had been recently built and was in good condition. More significantly, Cowan failed to acknowledge that the number of replacement units did not match the number of housing units blown up and thousands of low-income tenants were left homeless by this "modernization." The next day, Deepak Bhargava, Executive Director of Center for Community Change, an organization that works on behalf of low-income people, called this demolition of public housing, with the insufficient housing replacement, "immoral."

Blowing up public housing and leaving thousands homeless may be Third Way's idea of "modernization," it may even appeal to some Democratic real estate developers, but there is nothing progressive about it.

Conclusion

The question for progressives is not whether we want to influence the Democrats -- of course we do. The question is do we want to invest precious time and resources on inside-the-Beltway cautiousness, bad policy analysis that makes no waves, takes no chances and doesn't differentiate itself from the conservatives, or do we work to build something more real, vital, honest and progressive -- based on better policy -- ideas that change America because they change the terms of debate, not simply pander ineffectively to a mythological, out-dated concept of the "center." If we don't, if we think that type of ideological myopia is counterproductive, we better keep watch on Third Way.

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