In 1979, I bought my first parcel of farmland. It was near Tribune, and I was a proud new landowner. As I recall, the purchase price was $350 per acre. Today, that land is probably worth somewhere in the $2,000-per-acre range. That mirrors trends in farmland values in other parts of the United States.

In the years since that initial purchase, I have seen many changes in the agricultural sector. They include a decline in planted wheat acres in Kansas from about 12.1 million in 1979 to 7.6 million for the 2024 crop (according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service). Corn, soybeans and milo have filled much of the gap. Other examples are the decline in the number of farms from about 75,000 in 1980 to about 55,500 in 2024.

Macro trends that have affected U.S. agriculture in the past two decades include the following:

• The advent of large-scale corn-based ethanol production, which went from virtually nothing to over 5 billion bushels of corn used for that purpose by 2021.
• Greater use of technology in the forms of improved varieties of seeds, precision application of crop inputs and crop monitoring from the sky.
• The addition of about 398 million acres of cropland since the turn of this century, notably in Brazil and India, but also in other regions.
• Declining population growth trends in major importers of U.S. crops, especially China.

For me, the backdrop for all of these trends is my experience going through the farm crisis of the 1980s. Some of those memories will stay with me for all of my life. When I think about the current status of agriculture in America, and especially in Kansas, I have deep concerns. The health of the Kansas economy is highly dependent on the viability of the farm sector, and I see a combination of factors — the likes of which we have not faced in my lifetime — that are disturbing.

The chaos of the Trump administration is undermining agriculture in Kansas and across the nation. We are seeing traditional importers of U.S. grains, notably China, go elsewhere. The tariffs imposed by our government are doing far more harm than good for farmers who are being hit hard on the cost side of the equation.

Take your pick — wheat, corn, soybeans, milo — not a single crop shows a positive cash flow. That’s before considering the opportunity cost of the capital used for the inputs, let alone any land debt service. When I refer to opportunity cost, I simply mean that that same capital could be invested in a safe financial instrument, such as a CD, where it would earn interest at a rate above 4% annually.

In recent weeks, I have spoken with bankers in Kansas and nearby states that have heavy concentrations of agricultural loans. All of them told me that they are dreading “renewal season,” which is the time when farmers renew operating loans for the 2026 season. There will be some very difficult conversations, because in some instances the farmer borrower will have little choice but to sell some land to improve his or her financial situation.

Other borrowers will see unpaid balances on this year’s operating loans termed out in the hopes that, over time, they can be repaid. In other words, the can will be kicked down the road. Land equity does not pay the fertilizer bill; it takes cash flow to do that.

All of this raises the question: What will happen to farmland values?

In the past decade, it seemed few things could get in the way of increases. A significant amount of outside capital was invested in farmland. The land was sometimes referred to by investors as gold with a coupon. While farmers continue to be the primary buyers, there is no doubt that this outside capital provided some support for land values. That capital is now looking at less-volatile assets.

I have had conversations with investors who have put hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. farmland. Their mood now reflects the concerns that investors have when uncertainties come into the picture. Those uncertainties are in large part the result of the Trump chaos factor.

Recently, I was approached by a farmer who wanted me to team up with him to buy some land to expand his operation. He and I share the same emotional attachment to the land that is a cornerstone value for most farmers. But both he and I are struggling with buying an asset in a market that is headed one way — south. When you cut through all of the chatter, there is one word that defines the agriculture sector today.

That word, whether in Kansas or South Carolina, is unsustainable.

All of this has big consequences for the small towns that undergird Kansas. When farmers tighten their belts, fewer dollars flow into those communities, and that only hastens the depopulation so apparent in many areas of the Great Plains. A way of life is at risk. If the current administration has its way, America will be remade into an island, isolated from the rest of the world. That is not a viable business or social strategy.

The result is that our competitors will gladly fill the void. They are already doing so.

Some observers have suggested that the current situation in U.S. agriculture is different than in the ’80s. That is true in respect to interest rates. There are also fundamental factors at work not present in the 80s. They include the items that I have noted above, along with a troubling trend towards isolationism. Kansas farmers and their peers produce way more grain than can ever be consumed in the United States in a given year. Without reliable export markets, the results cannot be good.

I have heard all of the arguments in favor of higher land values, such as: “They aren’t making any more of it, “Everything will work out” and so forth. Folks, things are not going to work out if the present approach continues. And, yes, as noted above, “they” are adding more land in other countries.

I love the land, and I have great admiration for those who produce our food and fiber. For all of us who are in the ag sector, silence is not an option in light of the fact that we have a looming crisis on our hands. Inaction will have serious consequences on land values for Kansas farmers as well for the state as a whole.

Ben Palen is a Kansas native and a fifth-generation farmer and agriculture consultant in Colorado and Kansas.

Kansas Reflector is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Kansas Reflector maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Sherman Smith for questions: info@kansasreflector.com.

Kansans now confront a “big, beautiful bill” approved by 218 Republican puppets in the U.S. House, and then signed into law by a convicted felon who was found guilty of sexual abuse, and who has faced multiple criminal cases over the past few years. Many of his indictments went to the core principles of our democracy. Unlike the average American, he has been given free pass after free pass by a Supreme Court that exists primarily to do his bidding — never mind right and wrong.

Is all of this part of a bad dream? If only that were the case.

We are bombarded by distortions perpetuated by hundreds of millions of dollars of “dark money” used via social media. Our reliance on that device in the palm of our hands has become a seductive tool to manipulate the masses. It’s how our president was bought and sold. Those devices supposedly foster connections, but the reality seems to be that they fuel isolation, especially at a time when we need to talk to each other.

How to make sense of the absurd? How to square any of this with the founding principles of this country, or with the role that the United States has come to play in an increasingly troubled world? I am not certain that Camus and Kafka, working in collaboration, could put all of this madness into words.

We now confront darkness.

For those of us old enough to remember, words from one of the most memorable Simon and Garfunkel songs come to mind: “Hello, darkness, my old friend, I’ve come to talk to you again.” Darkness leads to isolation, and that leads to lack of communication, along with feelings of hopelessness. There is much darkness now among a large segment of the population as we see actions, and hear words, that we know reveal a lack of morality, of decency, among many of our elected officials.

How to cope with these feelings? How to figure out how to make a difference?

For me, strength comes from being in a place that brings good memories, comfort and perspective. That place is in the midst of an ocean of wheat on one of our farms. I stand alone with my thoughts, in the presence of earth and sky as far as my eyes can see. I realize that I am but a speck in the universe, but I gain strength in knowing that, by my actions, I can make a difference.

Darkness is countered by light. By speaking out, and speaking the truth, we can begin to bring about change. There is fear among the populace about speaking out, because we have already seen some actions from this administration that are eerily reminiscent of tactics used by prior and current fascist regimes.

A student whom I am mentoring asked me about taking a summer job with a law firm that had caved into demands from the Trump administration.

She asked: “How do I decide?”

I said the answer is simple — look in the mirror and ask yourself if you are doing the right thing. Your conscience will be your guide. That basic idea applies here, too. My mirror is my wheat field. For others, it may be an actual mirror, or it could be some other place, another person or a certain event in your life.

Just remember that, in these dark times, silence in the midst of what you know is wrong will lead only to more darkness. Remember that we have a limited number of days. Why speak out? Because it matters.

Ben Palen is a Kansas native and a fifth-generation farmer and agriculture consultant in Colorado and Kansas. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people who are affected by public policies or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own commentary, here.

Kansas Reflector is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Kansas Reflector maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Sherman Smith for questions: info@kansasreflector.com.

Back in November, I wrote a column for Kansas Reflector that discussed the likely adverse effects of President Trump’s proposed tariffs on U.S. farmers.

The piece noted that 398 million acres of cropland has been added to the mix around the world since the start of this century, notably in tropical regions such as Brazil and India. There is increasing competition for U.S. farmers in export markets. The United States alone cannot absorb all that we produce here.

Many farmers voted for Trump because he promised less regulation and greater prosperity for America’s farmers. The hard truth is that, like most of the folks who voted for Trump, farmers failed to do their homework about the reality of the new administration. All of this has occurred in the context of higher input costs and tight margins for virtually all crops.

We are now living and working in an environment where the only constant is chaos. Chaos produces uncertainty, and that leads to loss of trust. The buyers of U.S. farm products are not going to deal with nations that cannot be trusted. There are plenty of options in today’s world for those buyers to bypass the United States. Why on God’s green earth would they put up with the insanity that we have in Washington now?

It is almost laughable that some Republicans have come to the defense of Trump’s proposed tariffs, and that some of those same Republicans have promised to help the farmers who feel the impact.

Really?

We have an unelected multibillionaire who in effect bought the Trump presidency now running amok in Washington. On the one hand, we see unprecedented efforts (that is, without the advice and consent of the Congress) by some entity called DOGE to slash government spending, and on the other we hear some of Trump’s cronies promise aid for farmers. The two cannot be squared. Setting aside your political views, this is an unprecedented assault on the Constitution and the separation of powers.

Take your pick of programs. The Climate Smart programs designed to help farmers monetize carbon reduction practices on their farms are going away. The future of the 45Z tax credit is, well, who knows? What about export assistance programs urgently needed to help U.S. farmers counter the effects of the Trump tariffs and the rise of our global competitors, such as Brazil and India? And how about the price subsidies that featured prominently in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s farm support programs? What happens when NOAA is defunded?

How about the effect of “soft power” from the programs that USAID has provided in many impoverished parts of the world? By some accounts, USAID buys about $2 billion dollars of US farm products annually. USAID is being dismantled by the dodgy group. To his credit, Sen. Jerry Moran has spoken loudly about this travesty. Others must do the same, or our political and economic competitors will fill the gap.

Who suffers? Most certainly not Trump and his band of billionaires. Farmers, small towns and Main Street businesses bear the brunt of this ill-conceived approach.

Don’t bet the farm on help coming your way from this administration. Remember the old saying: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. My fellow farmers — you’ve been played. This nation cannot exist as an island. But that is the path that this administration is on, and the onus is on responsible folks from all political persuasions to find common ground to stop this madness.

Farmers, are you listening? These fundamental questions go to the heart of our democracy. From what we have seen this far, this nation is on a path that is at odds with our established role in the world, and the economic and social consequences could be unprecedented.

Like Minnesota Reformer, Kansas Reflector is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Kansas Reflector maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Sherman Smith for questions: info@kansasreflector.com.

Minnesota Reformer is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Minnesota Reformer maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor J. Patrick Coolican for questions: info@minnesotareformer.com.