virginia

Voters who swung from Trump to Dems reveal 'most important' factor in winning them over

A significant number of voters in 2025's statewide elections in New Jersey and Virginia voted for Democrats this year despite casting their ballots for President Donald Trump in 2024. Now, some of them are hinting at what types of candidates they aim to support in next year's midterms.

NBC News reported Friday that focus groups interviewing voters who pivoted from Trump to Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia found that while those swing voters sharply critical of both major parties, they still identified several criteria that they preferred in candidates. The 14 voters themselves are 12 self-described independents, along with one Democrat and one Republican.

According to NBC's report, the group was drawn to Governors-elect Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) due to their moderate posture. Swing voters viewed more positively than the Democratic Party's tarnished brand, which they described with words like "dishonest," "weak," "unfocused," "self-serving," "wishy-washy" and "ineffective.” And they told interviewers that they voted for Trump in 2024 largely because they viewed him as better-equipped to manage the economy compared to Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, who they described as "unqualified" and "out of touch," per NBC.

The voters also noted that while they didn't approve of Trump's policies or his failure to address rising costs of living, they viewed their votes as more pro-Sherrill and pro-Spanberger than anti-Trump.

"I mean, look, I’m a Republican, but let me tell you, if somebody is checking all the boxes for me, if they’re a Democrat, I’m going to go with my gut and what I feel," 52 year-old New Jersey voter Cynthia G. said. "And Mikie is just proven to me. Naval officer, formal federal prosecutor, mother of four. She’s tough, but she’s like the quiet storm. She’ll get things done."

"[Spanberger] was the closest thing to what you can call a moderate nowadays. She worked across the aisle. She wasn’t an extremist," said 40 year-old Richmond, Virginia resident Bruce L.

Brick, New Jersey resident Michael C., who is 60 years old, said he voted for Sherrill "because of her veteran status. Because being in the military, when you have a job that needs to get done, you get it done, you make sure you find a way to do it."

Syracuse University conducted the focus groups with the 14 voters in conjunction with research firms Engagious and Sago, which NBC observed for its report. Engagious president Rich Thau told the outlet that for the voters they interviewed, overall candidate quality mattered far more than any other single issue.

"The most important lesson for both parties in 2026 is to not run flawed candidates," Thau said. "While affordability, political moderation, and President Trump’s job performance all mattered in Virginia’s and New Jersey’s gubernatorial races, what mattered most to swing voters was candidate quality."

"It’s easy to see these Democratic wins in Virginia and New Jersey as a referendum on President Trump, but what these swing voters told us is not quite that simple,"said Margaret Talev, who is the director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship. "Moderation, competency and personal appeal is the combination they crave."

Click here to read NBC's full report.

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GOP pollster Frank Luntz: 'Every single county' in bellwether state shifted blue

The November 4 elections found Democrats enjoying a mini-blue wave as their candidates enjoyed a long list of victories — including double-digit wins in Virginia's gubernatorial race (former Rep. Abigail Spanberger), New Jersey's gubernatorial race (Rep. Mikie Sherrill) and New York City's mayoral race (State Assemblyman Zohran Mandami). Those races were called by the Associated Press (AP) as well as CNN and ABC News.

Spanberger, according to AP, defeated her GOP opponent, Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, by roughly 13 percent. But according to GOP pollster Frank Luntz, the size of Spanberger's victory is reflected by not only the total numbers, but the individual counties.

On X, formerly Twitter, Luntz posted, "Every single county in Virginia shifted blueward tonight."

Luntz posted a county-by-county breakdown for Virginia, a key swing state. And even in the counties that Earle-Sears won, Spanberger posted far larger numbers compared to Democratic candidates of the past.

For example, Earle-Sears carried Salem County by 12 percent, but according to Luntz, that's a 6.9 percent improvement for the Democratic Party in that red county.

Spanberger, according to Luntz, won Portsmouth County by 47 percent (an 8.1 percent swing for Democrats) and Prince William County by 34 percent (a 16 percent blue shift).

In Virginia's House of Delegates, Democrats built on their current majority, now holding 64 seats to Republicans' 36. This means that Virginia Democrats' goal of passing a redistricting map to counter Republican mid-decade redistricting in Texas and elsewhere is likely to pass, with Spanberger giving Democrats a trifecta.

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'Hard to overstate' how badly Trump hurt Republicans in Virginia: political strategist

Political strategist Max Burns says President Donald Trump would have had to work hard to do Democrats any more favors in the upcoming gubernatorial race in Virginia.

“Trump’s government shutdown led to widespread fury among Virginia’s more than 320,000 struggling federal workers,” argued Burns at MSNBC. “Now, [Republican candidate Winsome] Earle-Sears is performing the worst of all GOP statewide candidates and trailing [Democratic candidate Abigail] Spanberger by roughly seven percentage points. Ouch.”

Tuesday’s election is a referendum on Trump’s shutdown and his disdain for the federal workers “who make up the backbone of the Commonwealth’s economy,” said Burns, adding that Virginia’s Trump-enabling Republican leaders “have earned the drubbing” voters are likely about to give them.

“It’s hard to overstate how badly Gov. Glenn Youngkin and other state Republican leaders misjudged the public response to Trump’s war on federal workers,” said Burns. “Back in March, Youngkin seemingly forgot that his state led the nation in total federal workers when he cheered on Trump’s mass firings of government employees. Of course, that was before Trump’s firings sent Virginia’s unemployment rate climbing for seven months in a row, to 3.6% in September. That’s the highest since August 2021, when the Covid-19 pandemic was still upending the job market.”

Trump’s layoffs hit particularly hard in Washington, D.C.-adjacent Fairfax County, where unemployment spiked 28 percent over 2024. Burns said nearby Alexandria saw the number of jobless residents rise 35 percent in the wake of mass federal firings under Trump and DOGE. And the ongoing shutdown has “only made matters worse,” said Burns, now that paychecks have stopped for some federal workers.

Earle-Sears played her part when she downplayed the tragedy of Trump’s mass firings in leaked audio earlier this year.

“How many here have ever lost a job?” Earle-Sears told a private gathering. “Oh, you mean it’s not unusual? It happens to everybody all the time? Okay. The media is making it out to be this huge, huge thing. And I don’t understand why.”

But Burns said people voting in this election appear to think their jobs are indeed a “huge thing,” and Spanberger deftly played that up in her campaign message, arguing that “Not only do Republicans not care about what’s happening to you, they don’t even understand it.”

If elected, Spanberger may prove the key to enshrining abortion rights and marriage equality in Virginia’s constitution and restoring the right to vote to former felons who have paid their debt to society — all of which Earle-Sears opposes.

This, said Burns, is a big step down from Republicans’ hopes that Trump’s strong 2024 performance would “bode well for Earle-Sears’ chances of becoming the first woman to hold the state’s governorship.”

“Virginians have spent years watching Youngkin and his ramshackle Republican Party conspicuously fail to lead,” said Burns. “Worse still, Youngkin seems to delight in defending [Trump’s] sweeping job losses.”

Read the MSNBC report at this link.

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Trump 'didn't mention' name of Republican candidate once while campaigning for GOP

President Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind dozens of Republican candidates on the ballot ahead of Tuesday's elections across the country. But he has yet to specifically name one particular candidate in one of the most high-profile races.

On Monday, CBS White House correspondent Kathryn Watson reported that Trump joined a tele-rally for Virginia Republicans, with the Old Dominion State holding elections for statewide offices. Watson tweeted that while the president urged participants to "vote for Republicans up and down the ballot," he "didn't mention gubernatorial nominee Winsome Earle-Sears by name once." Earle-Sears —who is the first Black female lieutenant governor in Virginia history — is running against Democrat Abigail Spanberger in Tuesday's gubernatorial election.

This comes on the heels of a Politico article from last weekend, in which the outlet reported that while Trump endorsed more than 50 Republican candidates on Sunday, he notably didn't endorse Earle-Sears. He has, however, repeatedly mentioned Spanberger by name in multiple Truth Social posts.

"Why would anyone vote for New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Candidates, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, when they want transgender for everybody, men playing in women’s sports, High Crime, and the most expensive Energy prices almost anywhere in the World?" Trump wrote in his signature style of oddly placed capital letters.

Earle-Sears, who is currently trailing Spanberger in the latest polls by double digits, has been criticized for campaigning on cultural issues like limiting transgender rights, while Spanberger has been focusing on economic issues. Trump has only referred to Earle-Sears as "the Republican candidate," and told reporters in October that he hoped the GOP would prevail in Virginia while calling Spanberger a "disaster."

Trump has campaigned more visibly for Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey, mentioning him by name multiple times and participating in multiple tele-rallies with him. Ciattarelli's race against Democrat Mikie Sherrill is considered the closest of the major upcoming elections, though Ciattarelli is behind Sherrill by anywhere from six to eight points in the latest polls.

Tuesday's elections will also crown a new mayor in New York City, where Democrat Zohran Mamdani has a significant lead over both former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (who is running as an independent after losing to Mamdani in the Democratic primary) and Republican Curtis Sliwa. California voters will be voting on Prop 50, which will put new congressional maps in place aimed at giving Democrats an advantage in five Republican-held districts. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has endorsed Prop 50 as a response to Republican gerrymandering efforts in Texas and elsewhere.

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Karl Rove predicts major 'upset' in upcoming elections — and silver lining should GOP lose

Longtime Republican strategist Karl Rove is cautioning Democrats from being overconfident heading into Tuesday's high-profile elections taking place across several states.

Mediaite reported Monday that Rove told Fox News that even though polls show Democrats leading in the top three marquee contests of the evening — New Jersey and Virginia's gubernatorial elections and the New York City mayoral race — Republicans have reason to be hopeful in two of those three elections. He also argued that while Republicans will likely lose the gubernatorial election in reliably blue Virginia, they may capture a separate statewide seat.

" Trump lost [New Jersey] in 2020 by 16 points. He lost it by six last time around. So the number one thing that the Republican candidate needs to do is he needs to build on the Trump bump," Rove said of New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli. "He needs to get those people who moved into the Trump column between 2020 and 2024, he needs to them out in an off-year election. To do that, he needs hold on to the Trump Hispanic and non-White gains."

"If I were a betting man, I’d say New Jersey could be an upset, the Republicans are gonna gain in the legislature," he continued. "In Virginia, I think we’re going to have a surprise because the Republicans are gonna hold on to the AG slot. And I think they’re gonna keep their losses in the House of Delegates to less than what the Democrats hoped they would get."

According to polls from late October, Ciattarelli trails Democrat Mikie Sherrill by six to eight points, while Democrat Abigail Spanberger has a solid double-digit lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia. And even though Democrat Zohran Mamdani has a significant lead over both former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (who is running as an independent after losing to Mamdani in the Democratic primary) and Republican Curtis Sliwa in New York City's mayoral race, Rove said a Mamdani win would provide plenty of political ammunition for Republicans in the future.

"In New York, we’re gonna get the gift that keeps on giving," he said. "We’re gonna have a Democratic socialist mayor who wins in the low 50s or mid 50s, in a city where 62 percent of the eligible voters are registered Democrats, 22 percent are registered independents, and only 16 percent are Republicans, conservatives, or members of little fringe left-wing parties."

CNN data analyst Harry Enten said last week that If Democrats sweep all three of the major races on Tuesday, it would only be the sixth time in 90 years they've accomplished the feat. Each of the past five times Democrats won all three elections, they went on to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the following year's midterm elections.

Click here to read Mediaite's full report.

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'Not terribly popular': Expert reveals why Trump may cost GOP 2 major races next week

On November 4, 2025, New Jersey and Virginia will be electing new governors. Republicans' chances of victory in those races are particularly slim given Trump's dismal approval ratings.

That's according to Decision Desk HQ's Jeffrey Skelley, who told The New Republic (TNR) on Tuesday that Trump's influence on both races wasn't doing Republicans any favors. Skelley told TNR's Perry Bacon that New Jersey Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli was in a particularly tough bind after seeking and winning Trump's endorsement in the GOP primary, and he currently trails Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill by anywhere from four to eight percentage points.

"[Y]ou’ve got Donald Trump in the White House — he’s not terribly popular in New Jersey," Skelley said. "And given the sort of backlash we tend to see in elections after the presidential race Sherrill has a lot of the environmental factors going for her right now."

Skelley observed that in a typical election, Ciattarelli would be in a much better position to win given that he's running against an unpopular incumbent party, with term-limited Governor Phil Murphy (D) leaving office in 2025. And he reminded Bacon that Ciattarelli nearly won against Murphy, with Murphy only winning reelection in 2021 by three percentage points. But Skelley said that Trump's second term has soured the electorate against Republicans. Trump has also injected himself in the race, joining a tele-rally for Ciattarelli last week in which he heaped insults on Sherrill.

"I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Sherrill’s allies at the Democratic Governors Association have run an ad, for instance, that said Ciattarelli wants to be ‘Trump in Trenton,'" Skelley said. "So it’s a very clear effort here by Democrats to try to connect Ciattarelli to Trump as much as possible."

In Virginia, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger is leading Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears by eight to 10 points. Earle-Sears, who is the incumbent lieutenant governor, has run a campaign with rhetoric aimed at Trump's MAGA base. Even though Virginia has an incumbent Republican governor (who is unable to run for a second consecutive term under the Virginia constitution) Skelley said that it would be "very surprising" if Republicans prevailed in the Old Dominion State, and that Republicans' fate in Richmond was sealed after last November.

"[Earle-Sears] may have just lost the day that Trump won the presidency," Skelley said.

Click here to read the full interview between Bacon and Skelley in the New Republic.

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'Not going to act like everything’s hunky-dory': Intraparty feud threatens GOP in Virginia

Virginia is the state of former Republican Gov. Glen Youngkin, but The National Review reports a persistent grudge between Republican candidates is tying up Virginia statewide elections for the Democrats.

Until recently, conservative talk show host and Republican lieutenant gubernatorial nominee John Reid had not spoken to GOP gubernatorial nominee, Winsome Earle-Sears for months — not since Youngkin called Reid in April to ask him to suspend his campaign over allegations that Reid reposted nude photos of men on a Tumblr account years ago. Reid refused, causing a rift between Virginia conservatives, particularly highly religious Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

In an appeal for unity on a struggling Republican ticket, Reid called Earle-Sears in mid-June to assess how they could “get over the hump, and have everything be good, or as good as it can be.”

“I’ve tried very diligently to be positive about you and the ticket and both in public and private,” Reid said at one point on the call. “But I’m not going to lie and act like everything’s been hunky-dory. It’s been eight weeks since we’ve spoken. I’m puzzled about that. I don’t know why that is.”

But the National Review reports Earle-Sears refused to commit to burying the hatchet.

“Here’s the thing,” she said, after Reid’s repeated requests. “I didn’t appreciate that every time I turned around, there was something in the newspaper about you and me and whoever else.”

The Review reports both candidates made references to a leaked conversation from April 27, when a former top aide on Youngkin’s super PAC, Matt Moran, told Reid’s longtime partner that “getting out of the race” is “the only way to stop” the scandal from spiraling out of control. Reid pleaded with Earle-Sears to get past the April drama.

“If you’re not trying to blackmail me, then I don’t think you ever have anything to worry about,” Reid said, adding that his feud with Youngkin’s former aide “didn’t involve you.”

But Earle-Sears sounded leery of even taking the call.

“You don’t think I have any trepidation about speaking to you when you’ve had private conversations that have ended up in the newspaper?” Earle-Sears said. The Review said she dropped the call nine minutes into the conversation.

She did not respond to National Review follow-up questions, and a campaign spokesman called the story one of many “silly narratives obsessed over by political gossip traffickers.”

Silly or not, the widening rift between the GOP ticket in Virginia is just one of many issues worrying Republicans ahead of this fall’s elections, reports the Review. Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger dominates in both fundraising and polling, and Virginia Republicans are convinced the GOP ticket will either rise or fall together.

Earle-Sears won in 2021 “in large part, I think, because of Glenn Youngkin’s coattails. There are no coattails this year,” said former Republican Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling. “And so far, she has not shown the ability to put together a compelling campaign message. She has not shown the ability to raise anywhere near the kind of money that you need to run an effective statewide campaign. She has not even shown the ability to unite her own ticket.”

Read the full National Review report at this link.

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'Ammo for Democrats': Swing district GOP rep forced to put Trump ahead of her constituents

When the House of Representatives narrowly passed H.R. 1 — President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" — by a 215-214 margin, the deciding vote very likely came from Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.). And her vote may come back to haunt her in the 2026 midterm election.

Bloomberg reported Wednesday that Kiggans, who narrowly ousted Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) in 2022, was on the fence regarding H.R. 1 given her status as a Republican in a competitive district that would be directly impacted by H.R. 1 should it become law. The GOP megabill would end billions of dollars in renewable energy tax credits that former President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act made available, and Kiggans' Virginia Beach-area district stands out as one in which hundreds of millions of dollars of those credits could be ripped away from her constituents, costing jobs and economic activity.

And on the statewide level, Virginia itself would be dealt a significant economic blow from Trump's domestic policy package. According to Bloomberg, the Old Dominion State stands to gain $37 billion in economic activity from renewable energy projects within the next decade. Kiggans said in a statement that her support for the bill was due to its $1 trillion military budget and its extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts (which are overwhelmingly skewed in favor of the wealthy).

"I’ve always believed in an all-of-the-above energy strategy that keeps costs down and promotes innovation," Kiggans said.

However, the competitive nature of Virginia's 2nd Congressional District could mean that Kiggans' vote may cost her the seat itself in 2026. The two-term congresswoman won reelection last year by less than 16,000 votes out of more than 400,000 ballots cast, according to Ballotpedia. The district broke for Trump in 2024 by just 0.2%. While voting against H.R. 1 may have preserved the clean energy tax credits that benefit her district, it also may have incurred Trump's wrath should Kiggans have been the deciding vote in killing the legislation.

"This provides ammo for Democrats, and obviously Kiggans is one of their top targets this cycle,” Cook Political Report House of Representatives editor Erin Covey told Bloomberg. “She has to walk this fine line between both appeasing the more middle of her district and also appeasing Trump.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has made VA-02 a top target to flip next year. DCCC spokesman Eli Cousins told Bloomberg that Kiggans' "brazen flip-flop on supporting clean energy tax credits is exactly what voters hate about D.C. politicians: She says one thing back home, but turns around and votes another way in Washington."

Click here to read Bloomberg's full report (subscription required).

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'Pathetic': Trump slammed for pardoning Virginia sheriff convicted of bribery charges

President Donald Trump granted a pardon to Scott Jenkins, a former sheriff from Culpeper County, Virginia, who had been convicted on federal bribery charges and sentenced to a decade in prison.

Jenkins had been scheduled to begin serving his sentence on Tuesday.

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Monday, announcing his decision, Trump wrote: "Sheriff Scott Jenkins, his wife Patricia, and their family have been dragged through HELL by a Corrupt and Weaponized Biden DOJ."

"In fact, during his trial, when Sheriff Jenkins tried to offer exculpatory evidence to support himself, the Biden Judge, Robert Ballou, refused to allow it, shut him down, and then went on a tirade," the president added.

Social media users reacted to the development, saying the decision does not bode well for the rule of law.

A Richmond-based journalist posted on the social platform X: "Should the residents of Henrico County need to be on the look out because there's another Trump pardoned criminal walking the streets?"

"I’m so f------ sick of the GOP acting as though they are saintly, God-fearing, law abiding citizens," wrote a user.

"Oh look, another CRIMINAL pardoned by Trump. Guess law and order doesn’t matter if you are a MAGA supporter. Funny how they cry and scream about 'illegal' criminals. But white criminals that support Trump just all so happen to be innocent and keep getting pardons. Pathetic," tweeted another user.

"This is how police corruption breeds into a gestapo. In exchange, he'll expect full compliance and loyalty for whatever crimes he wants committed. This is fascism 101," said a user reacting to the news.

But supporters of Trump's Make American Great Again (MAGA) movement supported the decision.

"Thank you, President Trump, for pardoning Innocent Culpeper County Sheriff Scott Jenkins! Another victim of the evil Biden regime! He will NOT be going to jail tomorrow, but instead will have a wonderful and productive life!" wrote a pro-Trump X account.

Trump has frequently claimed — without providing evidence — that he and other conservatives have been unfairly targeted by a politically motivated Justice Department under the Biden administration.

Since returning to office, he has granted numerous pardons to high-profile and contentious individuals.

Those pardoned by the president include the majority of those convicted in connection with the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot, as well as Michele Fiore, a right-wing commentator and former Las Vegas City Council member convicted of wire fraud.

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Teen filming prank video shot dead by angry homeowner hours before high school prom

A teenage boy in northern Virginia is dead after he was shot and killed by a homeowner during the filming of a prank video.

NBC News reported Wednesday that 18 year-old Michael Bosworth Jr. was killed early Saturday morning, when 27 year-old homeowner Tyler Chase Butler shot Bosworth on his doorstep. Butler has since been arrested on charges of second-degree murder, malicious wounding and use of a firearm in commission of a felony. Butler told police he thought Bosworth and several teens who were with him were trying to break into his home.

Bosworth was reportedly in the middle of filming a prank video for his TikTok followers when he was killed. Bosworth and his friends were playing "ding-dong-ditch," in which participants ring random doorbells and run away before the occupants of a home can open the door.

"The juvenile stated that they had run to hide. The juvenile said as they were running from a residence, he and his friends were shot at," read a search warrant affidavit from the Spotsylvania County Sheriff's Office. One of the teens told police that they had been playing ding-dong-ditch at other homes in that neighborhood without incident.

Bosworth, who was a senior at Massaponax High School in Spotsylvania County, was killed on the same day as his school prom. The district sent out a letter to parents alerting them of the incident.

"School counselors will be on site at the event to provide support as needed," the letter read. "Also, when students return to school on Monday, our counseling staff and additional division support team members will be available to provide support to our students and staff as needed. If your child needs support, please contact the school so that we can provide assistance. Our thoughts are with the family during this difficult time.

NBC reported that Butler is being held without bond in the Rappahannock Regional Jail.

Click here to read NBC's full report.

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GOP candidate rejects governor’s attempt to push him out of race over 'salacious' photos

John Reid, who is the Republican nominee in Virginia lieutenant governor's race this November, declined to drop out after Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin asked him to end his campaign over illicit photos Reid allegedly reposted.

Reid said the photos of men posted to a social media account are a fabricated to smear on him for being openly gay.

“The Governor did call me today and said there were salacious pictures on the internet reposted by an account that uses my Instagram handle,” Reid told the Washington Post. “I have now seen the supposed ‘evidence’ and it’s not my account, even though they’ve used a similar username to what I have on Instagram. As long as I have been in the public space, I have been a target for malicious and salacious lies. This is the second overt attempt to try to force me from the race.”

The Tumblr account in question dates to at least 2020 and shares the same handle as Reid’s other social media accounts, according to anonymous sources. The Washington Post’s internet archive Wayback Machine reveals the now-deleted account reposted pictures ranging from racy underwear to explicit photos of male models.

Reid is Virginia’s first openly gay candidate for statewide office. Rival GOP candidate Pat Herrity dropped out this week, clearing the way for his upcoming election.

The Republican nominee expressed outrage that Gov. Youngkin made the request in the first place.

“Am I really expected to answer every twisted, intrusive question about my previous relationships, every person I ever had sex with, every dating app I was ever on?” he said. “Is anyone at the Richmond State Capitol or in D.C. planning on doing the same?”

Read the full Washington Post report here.

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