federal reserve

'Do the math': GOP senator vows to sink Trump's Fed chair pick

President Donald Trump has nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chairman of the Fed. But one Republican senator is threatening to make sure Warsh never gets confirmed out of his committee.

Semafor reported Friday that outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) – who is not running for another term in November – is signaling he will vote against Warsh's confirmation in the Senate Banking Committee, where he is one of 13 Republican members on the 25-member body. Tillis maintains that he won't vote to confirm any of Trump's nominees to the Federal Reserve until the Department of Justice calls off its investigation into Powell.

"I actually sent a note to the president saying, ‘It’s a great pick,'" Tillis told Semafor. "But I'm not changing."

Assuming all 12 Democrats on the committee vote no, Warsh would be unable to advance to the full Senate for a majority vote. The rules of the Senate allow for the full body to vote on a presidential appointee's confirmation with 60 votes, though that would require eight Democrats (assuming TIllis' opposition remains in place) to cross the partisan aisle.

While Vice President JD Vance can cast a tie-breaking vote if the body is tied at a 50-50 split, Tillis suggested some of his Republican colleagues "understand the profound importance of Fed independence" and privately disagree with Trump's brow-beating of Powell. He told the outlet: "I’m pretty sure that they wouldn’t get 51 [votes]."

"This could have been frictionless," the two-term North Carolina Republican said. "But if they choose friction, what else can I do except create more friction?"

Tillis quipped that when Republicans asked about the holdup on Trump's nominees, he flatly responded: "I'm not running for reelection." And he said his hold could last until "the next Congress," hinting that Republicans may no longer have the numbers to advance Trump's nominees after 2027.

"[T]hat Congress may or may not be with the Senate Republican majority," the retiring senator said. "Do the math."

Trump's Fed chair nominee is a 'political animal' and a 'hack': Nobel economist

When President Donald Trump was weighing his options for a U.S. Federal Reserve nominee to replace the current chairman, Jerome Powell — whose term ends in May — his search was described as a "tale of two Kevins": National Economic Policy (NEC) Director Kevin Hassett, and financier/attorney Kevin Warsh (who served on the Fed's Board of Governors under former Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama).

Trump announced his decision early Friday morning, January 30, nominating Warsh rather than Hassett.

Liberal economist Paul Krugman analyzes Trump's Warsh pick in a January 30 column posted on Substack, and he isn't enthusiastic. The former New York Times columnist views Warsh as a "political" partisan who won't serve the Fed well.

"The Fed is a republic, not a dictatorship; key decisions are made by a committee in which the chairperson has only one vote," Krugman explains. "Fed chairs can only drive policy through persuasion — and Warsh lacks the intellectual and moral credibility to be effective on that score. But God help us if we enter a crisis that requires decisive Fed leadership, the kind Fed Chair Ben Bernanke showed during the financial crisis, or Jay Powell is now showing against Trump's attacks."

Krugman adds, "Absent a crisis, my prediction is that the majority of Warsh's colleagues will largely ignore him, albeit without expressing their contempt openly…. While I don't think Warsh will do too much damage to monetary policy, he, along with his fellow Trumper Michelle Bowman, the vice chair for financial supervision, may well eviscerate the Fed's role as a financial regulator."

The Nobel laureate economist disagrees with reporters who are describing Warsh as a "monetary hawk."

"That's a category error," Krugman writes. "Warsh is a political animal. He calls for tight money and opposes any attempt to boost the economy when Democrats hold the White House. Like all Trumpers, he has been all for lower interest rates since November 2024. Depressingly, some Democratic-leaning economists are stepping up to reassure us about Warsh's qualifications. This is reminiscent of the way many economists rallied around the selection of Kevin Hassett as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in 2017, although he was an obviously ludicrous hack."

Krugman describes Warsh as a "Republican loyalist" who "always wants to slam the economic brakes when Democrats are in power and step on the gas when Republicans rule."

"It's a humiliating day for the Federal Reserve, which has always prided itself on its professionalism and has been hugely respected around the world," Krugman laments. "But even the Fed can't insulate itself from the derangement sweeping America."

Paul Krugman's full Substack column is available at this link.


Trump to announce new Fed chair Friday morning

President Donald Trump has apparently decided on his pick to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and will announce the nomination on Friday.

The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that Trump planned to make the announcement in the morning, following a months-long vetting process led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The Treasury secretary is recommending Trump nominate one of four finalists: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, current Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Christopher Waller (who Trump appointed in 2020) and former Fed board member Kevin Warsh.

Whoever Trump nominates will likely face questioning from U.S. senators over whether they will prioritize Trump's wishes in lowering interest rates or if they will listen to economists and other experts who have cautioned against lowering interest rates due to concerns about inflation. The new Fed chair will replace current Fed chair Jerome Powell, who has consistently bucked Trump's demands to lower interest rates.

Powell's tenure as chairman may end in May of this year, though his term as a member of the Fed's board of governors lasts through December 31, 2028. If Powell chooses to remain on the board, he could work to stymie Trump's push to drive down interest rates, as any official decision would require a majority of board members.

Powell has a way to stop Trump from intruding on the Fed until 2028: report

When U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell revealed that he is the target of a criminal investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), a long list of Democrats rushed to his defense — especially Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — and criticized President Donald Trump's politicization of the Fed. But some conservative Republicans are speaking out as well, including Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

Powell's term as Fed chair ends in May, and Trump is hoping to appoint a MAGA loyalist as a replacement. But in a January 11 post on X, Tillis warned that he may oppose Trump's nominee.

The GOP senator posted, "If there were any remaining doubt whether advisers within the Trump Administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none. It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question. I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed — including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy — until this legal matter is fully resolved."

In an article published on January 14, Politico reporters Jasper Goodman, Victoria Guida and Jordain Carney stress that Trump's campaign against Powell has become much more than a debate on the Fed chair's performance — it has also become a debate on the role of the Federal Reserve itself.

"The Justice Department's move to investigate Fed Chair Jerome Powell is renewing lawmakers' focus on central bank independence as Trump inches closer to deciding who he wants to nominate as the next Fed chief," the Politico journalists explain. "And that could lead lawmakers to take aim at the frontrunner, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, if he is nominated for Powell's position. Hassett has been a ubiquitous presence on TV, making the case for the president's economic agenda and his repeated calls to cut interest rates…. The new scrutiny on the Fed's political autonomy illustrates how the investigation into Powell could have an impact far beyond its outcome."

Goodman, Guida and Carney add, "The legal clash could disrupt the president's vision for who leads the Fed starting in May. And it could also compel Powell to stay on the Fed board beyond the expiration of his term as chair, depriving Trump of getting a pick for another seat until January 2028."

Tillis is saying that he may voting against Hassett if he becomes Trump's nominee to replace Powell as Fed chair. But a Republican senator, interviewed on condition of anonymity, told Politico that Tillis will likely "fold" if Hassett is nominated — as it would be "too big a deal" if Senate Republicans opposed Trump's Fed chair nominee.

Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at the firm Potomac River Capital, also believes that Hassett would be confirmed.

Spindel told Politico, "Hassett ticks every box that every standard Fed chair or nominee would tick. I still think he will get the president's nomination, and I think the president can work the phones pretty aggressively."

Read the full Politico article at this link.

'Seismic events' may be about to end Trump's control of the US economy: analysis

A former White House economic advisor is warning that President Donald Trump is about to lose control of the U.S. economy.

“Remember 2025, when President Trump dictated bracing new rules for the economy? Impose sweeping tariffs! Dismantle government agencies! Lower taxes! Cut spending! The Federal Reserve remained independent, but almost everyone else fell in line. That may soon feel like ancient history,” former White House Council of Economic Advisors Jason Furman wrote Wednesday in the New York Times.

“Because in the first couple of months of this new year, the power shifts,” continued Furman. “The Supreme Court is expected to rule on both the Trump administration’s huge slew of tariffs and the president’s ability to control the Federal Reserve Board. In addition, a new nominee to lead the Fed will be handed over to the Senate for scrutiny. Meanwhile, Congress no longer seems to be listening to Mr. Trump on taxes and spending — and might even start enacting its own agenda.”

The Supreme Court’s upcoming tariff decision may be the first of major “seismic events,” said Furman. The Court is expected to rule in the coming days or weeks, possibly fully endorsing or rejecting the administration’s rationale, or at least paring down Trump’s disputed authority to levy new import taxes on Americans and U.S. business.

“If some tariffs stay in place, businesses that have so far absorbed much of the costs may no longer be able to shield consumers from higher prices,” warned Furman. “Trading partners may reconsider their agreements — or retaliate against U.S. products. And if any tariffs are struck down, the administration will almost certainly try to reimpose them using alternative legal authorities, which will set off still more litigation.”

And in August, the court will consider Trump’s claim of unilateral power to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook and Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Congress, itself, may finally be prepared to reclaim some power Republicans happily conceded to Trump. Resulting “affordability” issues caused by Republicans’ combined policies with Trump are driving the GOP to reconsider Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies Republicans let expire on January 1, forcing approximately 22 million people to pay higher health insurance premiums ahead of this fall's midterms.

“These questions come at a moment when the state of the economy is already unusually uncertain,” said Furman, with the risk of recession remaining elevated, lingering inflation an the possibility of the artificial intelligence industry collapsing.

“I find myself wishing for something like Mr. Trump’s decisiveness from 2025 — but only if it could be paired with something it fundamentally lacked: wisdom,” said Furman said. “Instead, we may get a messy, fragmented system in which power is shared among nine Supreme Court justices, 12 Federal Reserve voters, 535 members of Congress, and millions of businesses and households making their own decisions.”

“I would settle for that,” added Furman. “A stalemate, even an untidy one, is preferable to Mr. Trump wielding unilateral control over the economy."

Read Furman's New York Times op-ed at this link.

Trump's latest lawsuit threat could bury him in a legal 'avalanche': analysis

MS NOW analyst Steve Benen warns President Donald Trump’s latest ploy in his ongoing war against Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell now extends to “outlandish” lawsuit threats. But the legal basis of the president’s argument could become a colossal self-own in the U.S. court system if judges take Trump’s argument seriously.

Trump has pressed Powell to counter the damage of Trump’s onerous tariffs by lowering interest rates, and the more Powell disregards him, the angrier Trump gets.

“Indeed, the president has resorted to juvenile taunts and name-calling, publicly condemning Powell as, among many other things, a ‘moron’ for failing to follow the White House’s misguided demands,” said Benen.

Trump said he might also continue his impotent campaign to duck U.S. agency independence clauses and fire Powell, but it is Trump’s recent legal threat that Benen finds most laughable.

“Donald Trump has spent the first year of his second term whining more about Joe Biden than anyone else on earth, but … Powell is a close second,” said Benen. “… During a Mar-a-Lago press conference, standing alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump peddled familiar complaints, before concluding: ‘It’s gross incompetence against Powell. We’re going to probably bring a lawsuit against him.’”

Trump wrote in August that he was ‘considering allowing a major lawsuit against Powell to proceed,’ and his press secretary insists that he’s ‘serious’ about it, said Benen, while adding that it’s “unlikely that he’ll follow through.”

“But I’m also curious about the implications of such an effort,” said Benen. “If litigants can file civil suits against government officials over perceived ‘gross incompetence,’ wouldn’t that lead to an avalanche of such cases?” said Benen. “Given Team Trump’s brazen and routine incompetence, it isn’t difficult to imagine the president and administration officials facing a whole lot of lawsuits along these lines if he were to open such a door.”

Read Benen's MS NOW column at this link.

'They call it drone-free roof': Trump compares Federal Reserve to ballroom in bizarre rant

President Donald Trump spent part of a joint event alongside a foreign leader to simultaneously attack the Federal Reserve's ongoing renovations of its campus while touting his planned White House ballroom.

During a Monday press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump answered one reporter's question about his planned replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by launching a litany of complaints about the Fed's upgrades of its two main buildings in Washington D.C. After repeating the false claim that the renovation was costing $4 billion (the highest estimates peg the cost at $2.5 billion), Trump argued that Powell was "incompetent" due to the cost of the project.

"We have a fool at the Federal Reserve, I mean, [former President Joe] Biden reappointed him. It's too bad," Trump said of Powell, who was appointed in November of 2017 during Trump's first term. "You would have thought he wouldn't have done that. But, he's an absolute fool who's building a new Federal Reserve, or he's doing a renovation of a building. Maybe he's up to $4.1 billion to do a renovation of a few very small buildings. It's the highest price in the history of construction."

The Fed's website explains that neither of the two buildings that serve as the headquarters of the United States' central bank have been renovated since they were built in the 1930s. Part of the construction involves removing carcinogenic building materials used during original construction, like lead and asbestos, and completely replacing "antiquated" building systems like heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) along with electrical wiring and plumbing. The Fed also aims to bring the two buildings up to code by including new accommodations for disabled people.

Trump contrasted the Fed's renovations with his White House ballroom, which is meant to replace the demolished East Wing of the White House. The cost of Trump's project has doubled to $400 million, despite him initially claiming the ballroom would cost $200 million.

"I'm doing a magnificent, big, beautiful ballroom that the country has wanted, the White House has wanted for 150 years. It's a massive job, and it's a tiny fraction of that number. And we're under budget and ahead of schedule," Trump said. "Now, it's bigger than I told you. It's — after realizing we're going to do the inauguration in that building — it's got all bulletproof glass, it's got all drone, they call it drone-free roof. Drones won't touch it. It's a big it's a big, beautiful, safe building."

Unlike the Fed's renovations, Trump's proposed White House ballroom did not undergo a public review process by the National Capital Planning Commission (NCPC), which is a requirement for all historic buildings in Washington D.C., whereas the Fed has been planning its renovations since 2017 and finally broke ground in 2022. The NCPC's final review of the Fed's planned renovations was published in September of 2021. Fortune reported that much of the increased costs are due to raw materials spiking in cost after the global supply chain was effectively decimated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Watch the video of Trump's remarks below:

- YouTube www.youtube.com

'This should be concerning': Experts alarmed at Trump's profane rant against Fed chair

President Donald Trump unleashed another attack on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling for the firing of the independent agency chief who has just months left in his term. Experts this week suggested eroding the Fed’s independence could trigger stagflation.

In a speech at the U.S.—Saudi Investment Forum on Wednesday, President Trump urged his Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, to “work on” getting Powell to lower interest rates. Experts warn that lowering interest rates inappropriately could lead to even higher inflation.

“He’s got some real mental problems,” Trump told the audience at the Kennedy Center, referring to Powell. “He’s — something wrong with him.”

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“I’d be honest, I’d love to fire his a –. He should be fired. Guy’s grossly incompetent,” Trump charged. “And he should be sued for spending $4 billion to build a little building. I’m building a ballroom that’s gonna cost a tiny fraction of that, and it’s bigger than the whole thing put together.”

Trump was referring to the renovations at the Federal Reserve. The Fed does not rely on tax dollars for its operations.

“You gotta work at him, Scott,” Trump continued from the podium. “The only thing Scott’s blowing it on is the Fed. Because the Fed, the rates are too high, Scott. And if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m gonna fire your a –, okay?”

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Critics weighed in on Trump’s attack.

“If you are a single-issue ‘affordability’ voter, this should be concerning,” remarked Catherine Rampell, the economics editor for The Bulwark.

Andrew Ackerman, who covers the Fed for The Washington Post, appeared to mock the president: “Trump: I want to fire Jay Powell but Scott Bessent won’t let me.”

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'Just a cheap shot': Fed chair tells colleagues to ignore Trump's attacks

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell – who President Donald Trump appointed to his post during his first term – recently revealed what he tells his colleagues when it comes to the president's constant threats: "Don't engage."

The Daily Beast reported Tuesday on Powell's attitude toward the administration, which he delivered during an event at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Rhode Island. The head of the nation's central bank said that he made sure his fellow Fed governors dismissed any political attempts to influence their work, and to simply stick to their job of managing monetary policy.

“We don’t engage,” Powell said. “We don’t, you know — our argument is [we're] doing our jobs. We don’t get into back and forth with external people. We just do our jobs. We keep our heads down and do our jobs. That’s what we do.”

“We’re based in Washington, D.C., and many, many people you know — Congress, and you know — there are often things seen through a lens of, ‘Is it good for this party or bad, or bad for this party or this politician?” he continued. “We’re just not looking at things that way. We’re looking at what’s the best thing for the people that we serve in the immediate term, what’s the best policy?”

“And no one, many people don’t believe us because they go, ‘Come on, come on, you’re really political,’ but the truth is, mostly people who are calling us political, it’s just a cheap shot," he added.

The Fed chair's remarks come on the heels of its meeting earlier this month, in which the Fed announced it was slightly reducing interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. Powell insisted that the rate cut was made not because of Trump's persistent requests to cut rates, but simply because the economy needed stimulation after a year of lackadaisical growth, persistent inflation and an unemployment rate on the rise.

Powell has refused on multiple occasions to resign from his position as Fed chair, which expires in May of 2026. His position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors is slated to end on January 31, 2028. Trump has already appointed one member of the board this term, with former Council of Economic Advisors chairman Stephen Miran being confirmed on a party-line vote just prior to the Fed's September meeting. He's expected to appoint a loyalist to the chair role after Powell's term ends next year.

Click here to read the Beast's full report (subscription required).

'The economy's breaking': Economists say Fed cut interest rate to manage 'risk' of Trump

After the Federal Reserve announced a slight reduction in the interest rate, several prominent economists observed that the nation's central bank was making noticeable moves in direct response to President Donald Trump's management of the economy.

Navy Federal chief economist Heather Long noted on Wednesday that the only dissenter against an interest rate cut was Stephen Miran — the Trump appointee who was confirmed by the Senate on a party-line vote just earlier this week. Miran's dissent was due to him wanting a rate cut of at least 50 basis points. Long analyzed each board member's vote and called it "wild" that Trump's newest appointee wanted the equivalent of "5 rate cuts by year-end."

"You can see the tension at the Fed in just 1 chart," Long tweeted. "It's likely we'll get 2 more cuts. One in October and one in December. But you can see the battles ahead."

The Fed typically cuts interest rates during an economic downturn in order to stimulate economic growth – and likewise keeps interest rates steady when the economy is more stable to prevent inflation from spiraling out of control. According to Long, the Fed's economic projection as Trump approaches the one-year mark of his second term next January is particularly dark: The Fed's board predicted that the unemployment rate would rise to roughly 4.5 percent, while inflation was projected to hit three percent. GDP growth was also expected to falter, cracking just 1.6 percent over the next quarter. Long referred to those projections as "stagflation-lite," which is a term economists use to describe an economy experiencing both a higher jobless rate and a higher inflation rate.

University of Michigan economics professor Justin Wolfers also highlighted the Fed's gloomy economic outlook, characterizing it as the board saying: "Stagflation is in the room."

"Fed statement tracker tells you what they're trying to say," Wolfers wrote in a subsequent post to his X account, quoting the Fed's assessment of higher unemployment and rising inflation. "That first paragraph represents a sharp downgrade in the Fed's confidence about our economic conditions."

Economics reporter and author Matthew C. Klein found Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's summary of the rate cut as a "risk-management cut" illuminating, and posited that Trump's economy — so far defined by tariffs and mass deportations — may be the "risk" Powell was trying to manage. Political commentator Brian Allen had a similar interpretation of Powell's statement, opining that it seemed the Fed chair was warning that "the economy's breaking at both ends."

"That’s not just a recession. That’s stagflation. And it’s wearing a MAGA hat," Allen wrote. "This is the Trump economy."

'Failure': Trump's latest controversial firing blocked by nation's second-highest court

In a closely watched case with major implications for the independence of the Federal Reserve, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled 2-1 on Monday to block President Donald Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook from her position.

The decision, which comes just months after Trump launched a legal and political campaign to reshape the Fed, keeps Cook in her seat — for now.

The majority opinion was authored by Judge Michelle Childs and joined by Judge Bradley Garcia, both of whom are appointees of former President Joe Biden.

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The two concluded that the president lacked the authority to remove a sitting Fed governor without cause, citing statutory protections and the Fed’s critical role as an independent economic institution.

In a fiery dissent, Judge Gregory Katsas, a Trump appointee, argued that the president retains broad constitutional powers to remove executive officials and accused the majority of “shielding unelected bureaucrats from political accountability.”

The ruling is expected to be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, setting up what could be a landmark showdown over the limits of presidential power and the independence of central banking in the U.S. Cook — the first Black woman to serve on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors — was confirmed in 2022 and has been a key voice on monetary policy, financial inclusion and economic stability.

Her continued presence on the Board has drawn criticism from Trump-aligned officials, who claim she is too politically aligned with Democratic priorities.

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Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) wrote on the social platform X: "The courts keep rejecting Donald Trump’s illegal attempt to take over the Fed so he can scapegoat away his failure to lower costs for American families. If the courts – including the Supreme Court – continue to uphold the law, Lisa Cook will keep her seat as a Fed Governor."

MSNBC contributor and former U.S. Attorney Joyce Vance wondered about a sudden intervention from the Supreme Court, writing: "This may be too quick even for the shadow docket. We shall see."

Politico columnist Victoria Guida noted: "President Donald Trump loses his appeal on firing Lisa Cook from the Fed just as one of his top advisers is on the brink of being confirmed to the central bank."

Financial analyst Logan Mohtashami commented that Cook "would advocate for a rate cut."

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Washington Post journalist Andrew Ackerman wrote: "A divided DC appeals court said late Monday that Lisa Cook could remain in her Fed job while she fights Trump's attempt to fire her. The administration will almost certainly appeal to the Supreme Court..."

Former Treasury Department official Ashley Schapitl wrote: "Months ago I would have thought the chance SCOTUS ends Federal Reserve independence on the shadow docket was zero, but now? 50/50?"

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