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'Cleanup': Republicans caught deleting attack ads against Trump’s Texas pick

In recent months, the GOP has been divided over the Texas Senate primaries, which pitted the party-backed incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who ran under the endorsement of President Donald Trump. While Republicans pushed back against Trump’s efforts, arguing that the widely embraced moderate Cornyn was better positioned for the consequential midterm general election, MAGA-oriented Paxton prevailed. Now, reports NOTUS, the Senate GOP’s campaign team has begun deleting materials attacking Paxton from its website as it gears up to help elect the man it opposed.

“Each page critical of Paxton returned a 404 error on the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s website Wednesday morning,” NOTUS detailed. “The NRSC’s site appears functional otherwise, with a statement posted Wednesday morning attacking Paxton’s Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico.”

This about-face comes after a costly battle, with the NRSC spending millions toward a Cornyn win. Removed materials span a year of opposition research and include statements regarding Paxton’s alleged affairs and financial misdeeds.

“Among the deleted NRSC pages,” reports NOTUS, “was a statement from July 2025 in which NRSC communications director Joanna Rodriguez called Paxton’s conduct toward his wife ‘truly repulsive and disgusting’ after Angela Paxton filed for divorce on what she described as ‘biblical grounds,’ alleging adultery. A second deleted statement from later that month attacked Paxton over an Associated Press investigation that found that he and his estranged wife had listed three properties as their primary residences, allowing them to improperly lock in lower mortgage interest rates.”

“A lot of people who trust Ken Paxton get lied to, so it isn’t shocking to learn he is also cheating on his taxes and personal finances,” wrote Rodriguez at the time. “Ken Paxton’s betrayals of the public trust just keep coming.”

Other deleted pages include “an August 2025 digital ad titled ‘Cornyn Fights — Paxton Folds’; a September 2025 release calling Paxton’s personal attorney a ‘deranged Trump-hater,’ ads attacking Paxton for directing taxpayer-funded grants to groups providing ‘gender-affirming’ resources to children and a piece from April amplifying a Daily Caller report on Paxton’s Democratic-linked donor money.”

Now, with polls showing he is currently tied with Talarico, Republicans who once vocally fought against Paxton are in his corner.

As NOTUS explains, “The cleanup reflects the uncomfortable position Senate Republicans now occupy. Throughout the primary, Cornyn and his allies argued that Paxton’s scandals — including an indictment and an impeachment — and weak fundraising would force the GOP to potentially spend over $100 million in Texas — money Republican leaders would rather deploy to swing states like Georgia, Ohio and North Carolina.”

At the same time, Talarico has been raking in record high donations, particularly after his interview with Stephen Colbert was barred from airing on television by Trump’s FCC chief, prompting millions to watch the talk online and donate to the Democrat’s war chest.

Leading election forecaster gives Texas GOP the news it feared after Paxton win

While President Donald Trump and his MAGA supporters might be celebrating Ken Paxton's dominant win in Tuesday's Senate primary, according to one of the leading election forecasters, the result has tipped the general election odds in the direction that the Texas GOP most feared.

Paxton, whose time as Texas attorney general has been plagued by scandal and corruption, trounced incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a primary runoff this week, spelling the end of one of the most powerful Republicans in the Senate. This came after Trump, at the last minute, issued an endorsement of Paxton, calling him a staunch MAGA ally, despite the warnings of his party. Given his history, Paxton has a lot of toxic political baggage, prompting considerable alarm that voters might turn their noses up at him and open a path to victory for Democrats.

The blue opposition is also fielding one of its strongest Texas Senate nominees in years in the form of state Rep. James Talarico, who has built a strong campaign with a focus on economic issues voters are most worried about, as well as his devout Christianity. Numerous polls have shown that Cornyn might have been able to fend off Talarico, Paxton's chances were much closer, with some even giving the Democrat the edge.

These worries were reflected by the latest update from the Cook Political Report, a firm that issues predictions for every major political race in the country based on evolving circumstances. In the wake of Paxton's win, per The Hill, the report moved its prediction for the Texas Senate race to be more in favor of a Talarico win.

Cook still, overall, gives the Republican Party the edge in the race, but now, it is more slight. Whereas the rating used to be "likely Republican," Paxton's win saw it changed to a "lean Republican" rating, the sort of momentum shift that the Texas GOP does not want to see. It also noted that the Texas AG has no shortage of weaknesses for Democrats to exploit, potentially helping them move the race more in their favor through November.

"Paxton has a litany of ethical lapses for Democrats to exploit — from allegations of bribery and misuse of his office to marital infidelity, which led his wife to divorce him on ‘biblical grounds,’” Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, explained. “Given the national environment, this is a race that certainly may have become competitive even if Cornyn had won, but Paxton’s flaws warrant an immediate move to the Lean column."

'Weak strongman' Trump is strangling his feeble party: analysis

A political analyst argued on Thursday that President Donald Trump is acting like a strongman dictator, but in so doing he is strangling his own failing Republican Party.

“If you looked just at the percentages of last night’s Senate runoff in Starr County, you would say Trump is still dominating,” wrote MS NOW’s Chris Hayes on Thursday. “His candidate beat Cornyn there by nearly 50 points. But what’s that percentage based on? How many Republicans actually voted in that runoff? The answer: virtually none.”

Hayes continued, “Only 90 votes were cast out of more than 36,000 registered voters in the county, according to the Texas secretary of state’s office. In that same county, in a single Democratic primary for a local judge back in March, more than 13,000 Democrats turned out to vote.”

For these reasons, Hayes observed, Democrats are optimistic both about flipping the Texas Senate seat currently held by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) but currently contested by Trump-picked Republican nominee Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic nominee James Talarico.

“If you look at a map of Senate races being held this November, Democrats need to hold all their seats and flip four Republican-held seats to take the chamber,” Hayes explained. “That feat looked nearly impossible before Trump endorsed Paxton, the atrociously fraught candidate Democrats hoped they would get. It’s just clearer every day that Trump’s strategy for power has a tighter and tighter hold on fewer and fewer people. You see it in the polls where the president’s approval has plunged to new lows, as Democrats widen their lead on the generic congressional ballot. You see it in the increasing sycophancy of the Republicans who have so far survived Trump’s whims, as demonstrated by the coterie of kiss-ups who dominated Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting.”

Hayes predicted that trend will culminate in the Republican Party alienating everyone except the most sycophantic elements of Trump’s base.

“It is the defining political dynamic right now in the country, and one that really can only be broken through mass mobilization and democratic election, which is why threats to upend democracy will only grow more intense as Trump’s faction of MAGA diehards keeps shrinking,” Hayes argued.

Political experts share Hayes’ view that, at the very least, Paxton is not going to be as strong a nominee against Talarico as Cornyn would have been.

"Paxton has a litany of ethical lapses for Democrats to exploit — from allegations of bribery and misuse of his office to marital infidelity, which led his wife to divorce him on ‘biblical grounds,’” Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, wrote. “Given the national environment, this is a race that certainly may have become competitive even if Cornyn had won, but Paxton’s flaws warrant an immediate move to the Lean column."

Not so fast: Trump just lost 20% of key supporters in Texas

President Donald Trump’s preferred candidate in the Texas Senate race, Attorney General Ken Paxton, defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in Tuesday’s Republican primary. Yet according to a recent report, Paxton’s victory over Cornyn may hurt Trump among a constituency he relied upon to win in the 2024 election — Hispanic voters.

“One in five Latino Texans who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 would not support him again if given a redo, according to a new poll released Wednesday,” The Texas Tribune's Alejandro Serrano wrote on Wednesday.

“In a survey of 500 registered Latino voters, the Latino civil rights organization UnidosUS found that two-thirds disapprove of Trump's job performance, the same share that said they did not feel Trump and congressional Republicans were ‘focusing enough on improving the economy for people like you,’” Serrano added. “Nearly half of voters cited cost of living and inflation as a top issue shaping their view of Trump — more than any other issue, with immigration enforcement in cities also ranking high in the list.”

Quoting the vice president of a group that specializes on Latino voters, Serrano cited Clarissa Martínez De Castro as saying that “the economic priorities dominate. Some people call it ‘buyer's remorse,' other people ‘do over.'"

Serrano noted that Trump won 55 percent of the Latino bloc in the 2024 election, and that in turn helped Republicans in Texas perform better among Latino voters than they ever had before. Yet of the 300 out of 500 voters surveyed by UnidosUS who also lived in Texas swing districts, “a slight majority of respondents — 54 percent — said they planned to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress; 27 percent said they'd support the Republican, while the rest were undecided,” Serrano reported. Meanwhile Paxton’s Democratic opponent in the upcoming election, James Talarico, has a “more than 2-to-1 margin among Latino voters, as did Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa over Gov. Greg Abbott. Election after election, Texas Democrats won the Latino vote by wide margins.”

He added, “Former President Barack Obama and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton each won Latino voters by nearly 30 points in 2008 and 2016, respectively, according to exit polls. But the domination began to erode by 2020, when former President Joe Biden won the bloc by 17 points — foreshadowing Trump's striking gains four years later.”

Trump’s floundering fate in Texas is not limited to Hispanic voters. According to the political predictions firm Cook Political Report, Democrats’ chance of winning in Texas has moved from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican,” with its experts saying things could get worse for Trump in that state.

"Paxton has a litany of ethical lapses for Democrats to exploit — from allegations of bribery and misuse of his office to marital infidelity, which led his wife to divorce him on ‘biblical grounds,’” Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, said in a statement. “Given the national environment, this is a race that certainly may have become competitive even if Cornyn had won, but Paxton’s flaws warrant an immediate move to the Lean column."

Speaking to AlterNet on Tuesday, the managing editor of a different political predictions firm, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, made a similar observation about the House of Representatives.

"We think Democrats are still favored to win the House, even though Republicans have helped themselves through redistricting," Kondik told AlterNet. "The national environment just seems like it'll be enough to push Democrats to the majority."

Hopeless: Conservative urges idealists to 'give up' trying to save the GOP

President Donald Trump has so transformed the Republican Party that it is beyond saving, at least according to one prominent conservative.

Writing for The Dispatch, conservative commentator Kevin D. Williamson compared Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) to one of the state’s political heroes, Sam Houston. Like Cornyn, Houston was punished by Texas voters for an unpopular position: In Houston’s case, opposing the extension of slavery, and in Cornyn’s case the simple fact that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is perceived as more popular with the party base.

“Donald Trump routinely denounces his critics as ‘disloyal to the Republican Party’ (his verbatim description of Rep. Thomas Massie, the Kentucky libertarian who has sometimes chided Trump over his weakness for profligate spending), but Trump is, in all things, first and foremost a liar, and he does not give a fig about party loyalty,” Williamson wrote. “Trump cares about loyalty to Trump, and the more cynical reader here might reasonably substitute ‘subservience’ or ‘servility’ or ‘slavish boot-licking’ for ‘loyalty.’”

He added, “Far from being a party man, Trump has made a point of defeating Republicans who are inconvenient to him, whether they be obscure Indiana state legislators who declined to follow Texas’ gerrymandering example or state-level election officials who declined to participate in his 2020-2021 attempt at a coup d’état.”

Given Texans’ preference for Paxton over Cornyn, Williamson argued that it shows the Republican Party is beyond hope when it comes to overcoming its fealty to Trump.

“Imagine a rich, middle-aged car salesman who ditches his wife and starts dating a 21-year-old stripper with a meth problem, and then imagine that guy is a state—that’s Texas, Anno Domini 2026,” Williamson wrote. “With a slowing economy, rising prices, and the slow but steady creep of problems very similar to those facing other states—housing, infrastructure, etc.—Texas has some real issues facing it. It also has some imaginary issues facing it, such as the supposed takeover of … the Dallas suburbs … by Islamist radicals. Texas Republicans, having not very much useful to say about the real issues, currently are focused on the imaginary ones.”

Because this is so effective, Williamson chided conservatives who believe the Republican Party can be salvaged.

“Conservatives have been working to save the Republican Party—in Texas and elsewhere—from itself,” Williamson argued. “Perhaps it is time to give up that project. Like the car salesman with the meth-head paramour, the heart wants what it wants.”

He then concluded, “And if Selena Gomez isn’t your kind of sage, there’s always Livy: Eventus stultorum magister est [experience is the teacher of fools].”

Williamson is not alone among conservatives in expressing concern that Trump endorsed Paxton instead of Cornyn. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) argued that it “puts that seat in jeopardy” and asked, “how does that help strengthen the president’s hand when we lose a state like Texas?”

She characterized her reaction as “Supremely disappointed.” The same sentiment was expressed by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) who described Paxton as “an ethically challenged individual,” likely referring to the accusations of bribery, abuse of power and multiple extramarital affairs made against him.

“John Cornyn is an outstanding senator and deserved, in my judgment, the president’s support,” Collins added. “Obviously, it’s the president’s call, but I’m disappointed that he did it.”

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) said he was “speechless” and otherwise would offer no comment. Meanwhile Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a close ally to the president, tried to put a positive spin on the situation and said, “I think Paxton can win. I think it’d be three times more expensive.”

News anchor grills Trump advisor over baffling Texas endorsement

Polls suggest Trump’s last-minute endorsement of a scandal-laden Republican AG is mussing up a pivotal Senate race in Texas that Republicans must win in order to keep their slim Senate majority. But those concerns don’t appear to be registering over at Team Trump, according to an interview with President Donald Trump’s top advisor.

“I will note that the endorsement of Ken Paxton, the attorney general, who has been indicted, not convicted, impeached, not convicted, his wife filed for divorce on Biblical grounds just a year ago,” said CNN anchor Jake Tapper. “The [National Republican Senatorial Committee] was highlighting that — it’s the only reason I bring it up. There are a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill who wonder maybe that's going to make the seat more competitive for Democrats.”

Tapper was echoing polls from Democrats, pollsters and even Republican critics that Trump just made an easy win in Texas a whole lot more complicated by endorsing Paxton, who faces a strong Democratic opponent at a time when both Trump and the Republican Party are suffering historic unpopularity among U.S. voters.

“It's going to cost three times as much now [to win that Texas seat],” said Republican strategist David Urban. …[Cornyn] was kind of a walk to win and beat [Democratic challenger James] Talarico. But Paxton — completely different story.”

None of those concerns fazed Senior Trump advisor James Blair, however.

“I guess it depends on what lens you view it through. I think we would say that the Democrats have put up one of the most radically left candidates that they've put up anywhere for any Senate race ever, and certainly in the state of Texas with James Talarico,” said Blair. “He is way out of step with Texas voters.”

But that’s not what numbers are saying, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten, who pointed out that unlike Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s failed bid against GOP incumbent Ted Cruz, Cruz was polling ahead.

“Cruz was up by seven points in the polls in May of 2018. Paxton now is down by seven points,” said Enten. And at a time when Trump’s own polls are cratering.

Trump likely endorsed Cornyn’s flawed opponent due to Cornyn’s rare moment of disagreement with Trump in the past. It was the same motivation driving Trump’s primary destruction of Kentucky U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie, who pressed for the release of the Epstein files over Trump’s orders.

“Well, congratulation on your primary and all the pelts you have on your wall,” said Tapper at the end of the interview. “I saw the Thomas Massie-sized pelt added to the rec room. So, congratulations … I guess.”

- YouTube youtu.be

Texas 'Republicans are sweating through their solid gold Trump pins' — here's why

Barbed Wire Editor Brian Gaar says this year’s race for Republican senator in Texas “has everything,” including a “four-term U.S. senator trying to fend off a scandal-slicked attorney general” and “Big-money super PACs unloading cash like it’s an oil boom.”

They’re dumping considerable cash on incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who’s raised nearly $4 million this quarter and has $8.5 million in cash on hand. Cornyn also has a super PAC with an additional $11 million haul “and a consultant team stacked with senior Trump advisers.”

But “the kicker,” says Gaar, is that despite all that cash, the incumbent is still trailing his controversial opponent Texas AG Ken Paxton by 15 points in the Texas primary.

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“That’s not a polling gap,” says Gaar. “That’s a canyon.”

Another plot twist that Gaar says is probably making Cornyn’s campaign staff “spit … coffee,” is the fact that those same polls showing Paxton with a lead in the primary also show he’s losing to a generic Democrat in the general election.”

“Meanwhile, Cornyn — establishment, suit-and-tie Cornyn — actually beats the Democrat by seven points,” Gaar said. “This has Republicans sweating through their solid gold Trump pins.”

“The problem is nobody with the necessary gravitas seems to be willing to state the obvious: this is shaping up to be a f—————— disaster,” one anonymous aide told Axios.

READ MORE: Media ignores 'crisis' as Trump slides further into 'cognitive decline': analysis

Gaar points out that Paxton is the same embattled Texas AG who was recently impeached by the Texas House on bribery and corruption charges and then acquitted by the GOP-dominated Texas Senate.

“And speaking of family values: Angela Paxton, Ken’s wife of 38 years and a state senator, just filed for divorce on “biblical grounds,” Gaar adds. “If you’re wondering what chapter and verse that comes from, it appears to be somewhere between ‘Thou shalt not embarrass me on national television’ and ‘Thou shalt not have a mistress during impeachment hearings.’”

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, is still holding off an endorsement in the primary.

Gaar notes Cornyn told NBC News: “I’ve talked to him about it a number of times. He is not ready to make that endorsement,” which to Gaar looks like “your state’s senior senator refreshing Trump’s texts like a teenager.”

READ MORE: Trump just made a big mistake — and he has no one to blame but himself

“So here we are,” writes Gaar. “A race that should’ve been a Republican layup has turned into a slow-motion implosion. Cornyn’s money might not matter if the base stays glued to Paxton, and Paxton might win a primary only to crash and burn in the general.”

Read the full Barbed Wire report at this link.

'Recent discoveries': Democrats may have new opportunity in deep-red state's Senate race

Texas State Senator Angela Paxton (R) announced on Thursday that she has officially filed for divorce from her husband, Texas Attorney General and U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton (R), citing “recent discoveries.”

In a post on the social platform X, she wrote: “Today, after 38 years of marriage, I filed for divorce on biblical grounds. I believe marriage is a sacred covenant and I have earnestly pursued reconciliation. But in light of recent discoveries, I do not believe that it honors God or is loving to myself, my children, or Ken to remain in the marriage.”

She continued with faith-driven reassurance.

READ MORE: 'Absolute cringe': Trump admin mocked after attacking CNN report— by confirming it

“I move forward with complete confidence that God is always working everything together for the good of those who love Him and who are called according to His purpose.”

Angela and Ken Paxton have been married since 1986 and have four children together.

The Texas Attorney General issued his own message, attributing the split to “countless political attacks and public scrutiny.”

He wrote on X: “After facing the pressures of countless political attacks and public scrutiny, Angela and I have decided to start a new chapter in our lives.”

READ MORE: The Supreme Court just chickened out — and left a mess in its wake

In his statement, he added that he’s immensely proud and thankful for the “incredible family that God has blessed us with,” and reaffirmed his dedication to their children and grandchildren. He also appealed for “prayers and privacy at this time.”

The development led to wide-ranging commentary on social media.

The Washington Post reporter Natalie Alison wrote X: "Ken Paxton's wife said she has filed for divorce on biblical grounds. The Bible cites two valid reasons: Adultery, or an unbelieving spouse leaving the marriage. (Her statement seems to indicate the former)."

Politico reporter Ben Jacobs wrote: "The tweet from Angela Paxton announcing her divorce certainly strikes a different tone than the tweet from Ken Paxton on the topic."

READ MORE: 'Those people are destroyed': Bill O'Reilly reveals what Trump told him about Epstein

Journalist Yashar Ali wrote: "Senator Angela Paxton, who is married to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a candidate for the U.S. Senate, says she has filed for divorce. Attorney General Paxton has a history of infidelity."

Democratic strategist Joanna Rodriguez wrote: "What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting. No one should have to endure what Angela Paxton has, and we pray for her as she chooses to stand up for herself and her family during this difficult time."

"Democrats…you may have a chance to get the Texas Senate seat. HOLD THE LINE. Ken Paxton might be touchable," wrote a user.

Last month, the State of Texas submitted motions to dismiss the felony securities fraud charges against Paxton.

READ MORE: 'Scary thing': Trump has a 'very powerful' tool at his disposal to use against his enemies

More than a year ago, Paxton entered an agreement to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution, complete 100 hours of community service, and undergo ethics training, according to the Associated Press.

Special prosecutors confirmed in June that Paxton has met all the requirements of that deal.

In April, Paxton officially launched his campaign for the U.S. Senate for the 2026 election, joining the primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

It looks like Trump may have finally overplayed his hand

Trump’s war in Iran is entering its third month. Gas is $1.50 more at the pump than it was before February 28. Other prices are rising. The American economy is showing signs of the dreaded stagflation (the combination of inflation and stagnation that’s difficult to overcome). There’s a loud outcry over revelations about Trump’s self-dealing, including his $1.8 billion slush fund and permanent immunity from any IRS audits of him and his family.

Given all this, some political observers I rely on tell me Trump has finally overplayed his hand. He’s a lame duck who’s now facing the beginning of the end. His power is disappearing. Not all political observers I’ve been consulting agree.

Hence, this week’s Office Hours question: In your view, has Trump finally overplayed his hand, and, if so, what are the likely consequences for him, America, and the world?

I’ve grouped the responses I’ve received from seasoned political observers into several categories, which I’ve summarized below. I’d appreciate your thoughts.

1. Yes, congressional Republicans in particular have finally had it with him and are rebelling, with grave consequences for him and his agenda.

Last week, Senate Republicans gave a closed-door standing ovation to Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, whom Trump vanquished in a primary. Trump’s beef with Cassidy was that Cassidy had voted to convict Trump in Trump’s impeachment trial for his role in the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

Although most Senate Republicans had been unwilling to follow Cassidy then, last week they rebelled at the idea of giving funds to rioters who attacked the Capitol. “So the nation’s top law enforcement official is asking for a slush fund to pay people who assault cops?” Senator Mitch McConnell, the former Senate Majority Leader, said. “Utterly stupid, morally wrong — take your pick.”

They’re also furious at Trump’s decision to back Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas’s high-stakes Senate race over their colleague incumbent senior Sen. John Cornyn — who has always voted exactly as Trump has wanted. They worry that Paxton will lose to Democrat James Talarico because of Paxton’s history of legal and ethical controversies: abuse-of-office allegations from his top staff, a securities fraud indictment, impeachment by the Republican Texas House, and an ongoing divorce initiated by his wife, who alleges adultery. Republicans say Trump’s endorsement of Paxton has alienated lawmakers on Capitol Hill and turned off major GOP donors who’ll be critical in the midterms.

This rebellion of Republican senators also jeopardizes the rest of Trump’s legislative agenda, including his second “reconciliation” bill and his $1 billion ballroom. It could even tempt some Senate Republicans to join Democrats in convicting him of impeachable offenses, should Dems retake Congress in 2027.

The situation isn’t much better for Trump among House Republicans. Last Thursday, House Speaker Mike Johnson sent representatives home a day early to keep members from passing a war powers resolution that would order Trump to remove U.S. troops from his war on Iran. And Republican Representative Thomas Massie (who last week lost his primary after Trump backed his opponent) said that he’d name more names from the Epstein files.

2. Yes, Republican voters are finally seeing the light, and many are deciding to vote for a Democratic candidate in the midterms or not vote at all. Most other voters have by now firmly rejected him.

Other close political observers tell me the biggest change over the last month has occurred among voters — including many Republicans — who have now had it with Trump. The likely consequence is a Democratic takeover of the House and possibly the Senate in the midterm elections.

Because of inflation and the war in Iran, Trump’s approval among Republicans has fallen to its lowest level of his second term. He promised to bring down prices and avoid foreign entanglements, and he’s done the opposite.

This low rating within his own party is remarkable because Republican backing of Trump has been more stable than that of independents or Democrats. “Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president’s numbers are leaking,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw. “Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering.” A majority of Republicans (51 percent) now disapprove of Trump’s performance on inflation, compared with even higher levels among independents (85 percent) and Democrats (96 percent).

More broadly, Trump’s popularity has plunged with voters. A Fox News poll conducted from May 15 to May 18 shows 61 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance (including 48 percent who said they strongly disapprove), while only 39 percent approve overall. This is the highest disapproval rating ever recorded in the Fox News polls. The poll shows disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy rising from 56 percent a year ago to 71 percent now — the highest level in the polling series. On inflation, just 24 percent approve of Trump’s performance, down from 35 percent in January.

3. No. Trump hasn’t overplayed his hand because he still maintains an iron grip on the Republican Party and on non-college rural voters, and he has the support of a majority of the Supreme Court.

Other political observers whom I rely on disagree. They tell me that any “rebellion” by Senate Republicans, or unhappiness of voters (including a bare majority of Republican voters), is irrelevant because Trump remains in power, he has an iron grip on the Republican Party, and he assumes he no longer needs Congress anyway.

If the Democrats take control of the House after the midterms and hold hearings exposing more of Trump’s failings, he’ll just ignore them. In the unlikely event Democrats also take control of the Senate, he’ll still ignore them — or use them as foils, blaming them for the bad economy or any other longer-term negative outcomes of his war with Iran.

In the unlikely event that the House impeaches him and two-thirds of the Senate votes to convict him, he’ll dispute the result and take it to the Supreme Court, by which time his term is likely to be over anyway. (And the high court may well side with him in any event.)

4. No. In fact, he’s just getting started.

A few political observers tell me that Trump is just getting started. He will refuse to be a lame duck. Knowing that he’s facing the last two years of his presidency and his last opportunity to leave behind a “legacy,” he’ll be even more emboldened.

He will use his remaining time in office to go even further arresting and deporting people residing in the United States — not just those here illegally but also legal residents (green card or naturalized) merely accused of committing crimes or protesting against his regime, or who have done nothing other than live in Democratic-run cities and states.

He will also, according to these observers, go further in his belligerent foreign policy: taking over Cuba, seeking to occupy Greenland, demanding subservience from Canada and Mexico, and extending his “emergency” against suspected drug smugglers on the high seas.

My sources tell me that they expect Trump also to go further in seeking to leave his imprint on Washington, D.C. (his arch, ballroom, makeover of the Kennedy Center, etc.), his efforts to silence critics (including universities), and to make as much money for himself and his family as possible. Several told me they would not be surprised if he attempted to remain in office for a third term, if his health allows it. He figures this is his last chance, and there’s no way anyone or any institution can stop him.

So, what do you think? Has he finally overreached? What are the consequences?

Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/.

'A dirtbag is better than a fascist': Inside the moral compromise Dems won't admit to

Some progressive Democrats are of the opinion that Donald Trump has changed American politics so fundamentally – that the system is now so corrupt and the dangers to liberal democracy are now so severe – that questions of moral character no longer count like they used to. As one progressive Democrat recently told NOTUS, "I get really tired of Democrats being held to some lofty moral standard when Republicans are just ‘boys will be boys.'"

Therefore, for instance, if there's a chance for the Democratic Party to take back control of the United States Senate, it shouldn't matter that Maine's Democratic primary winner Graham Platner lied about being a "working-class Mainer"; lied about not knowing about the origins of his Nazi tattoo; cheated on his wife by sexting as many as a dozen women; allegedly abused and acted violently toward former girlfriends; among other scandals.

"I think when you look at politics in general, there are no saints in the United States Senate," US Senator Bernie Sanders, a progressive, told CBS News Monday. "People can argue about this aspect of Graham or another, but to my mind right now, we need allies in the United States Senate who have the guts to take on the big money that is dominating this country."

In other words, he may be a dirtbag, but he's not a fascist.

So it's OK to elect a dirtbag.

But it's not OK and we all know it.

That's why some progressive Democrats are spinning Platner's story so he doesn't look like a dirtbag but a man of integrity who struggled to overcome his past and redeem himself. California Congressman Ro Khanna appeared at a campaign rally in Maine the day after the Times reported on Platner’s toxic behavior toward numerous former girlfriends. One of them alleged that "this person does not respect women" while another alleged that he physically assaulted her and that he knew his tattoo was a Totenkopf, because he told her what it was

"Khanna’s appearance [during last week's Platner rally] was an exercise in tightrope walking," according to Politico this morning, "simultaneously condemning Platner’s behavior while espousing faith in the former Marine’s redemption from troubled times in his past."

Khanna told the same redemption story on "Face the Nation": "His actions were misogynist. They were shameful. They were wrong," he said, "but ... he took accountability. He himself has said it was shameful and he had redemption. And now he’s running on a platform of national health insurance, while Susan Collins is voting to cut it. He’s talking about taxing billionaires. Susan Collins is for tax breaks to billionaires. And he’s opposed to this foreign war where Susan Collins supported the war in Iran. That’s why I’m still supporting him."

Khanna's redemption story sounds convincing, but it runs into the fact that Platner cheated on his wife throughout 2024, years after his "dark period" in the aftermath of the Iraq War. PTSD might have explained, for instance, Reddit posts blaming victims of rape for the crimes against them, but what explains his bad judgment and untrustworthy behavior now?

The redemption story also runs into the fact that Platner never accepted full responsibility for his Nazi tattoo. He claims he did not know what it was, only that it was a skull and crossbones. But even if he didn't know at the time he got it, in 2007, he knew by 2009. That year he tried to return to active duty service. The Marine Corps' anti-hate symbol policy would have meant that an enlistment officer explained what it was and why it prevented him from returning. (Importantly, he could have, at that point, chosen to cover it up, but did not.)

The Washington press corps often compares Graham Platner to the president. Platner won yesterday's Democratic Senate primary in Maine despite his baggage, much as Trump won the White House twice despite his. But the men are not comparable. Trump is a sadist who wants to hurt people whom he believes are weaker than him, as do allies like Ken Paxton in Texas. Their vision for themselves is an America that's structured from the top down, with rich white Christian men dominating everyone under them. They will use force if they get the chance. They don't wear Totenkopfs on their skin, but they are fascists to the bone.

There seems to be a broad disinclination to admit openly that "a dirtbag is better than a fascist," even though that's a pretty good argument in favor of voting for Platner.

Platner isn't of that ilk. He's a talker, a bull------- a man who failed at adulthood but found compensation in the pleasures of saying shocking things. (A former girlfriend told the Times that he once said "if anybody ever broke in here, I would rape them.” She recalled him adding "not in a gay way.” “He was like, I would rape them to show them that I’m dominant,” she said.)

I agree with this characterization from a Bluesky account I follow: "I don't think Graham Platner is a Nazi. I think he's a dumbass edgelord who fetishizes violence and 'dominance,' and on account of being a dumbass edgelord, [he] is critically vulnerable to slopulism and Hitler particles." I also agree with Public Notice's David Lurie, who said: "He is no Nazi ... He is, however, a dirtbag, and was proud of it until opportunity knocked. Then he became mendacious about it." He is, as the Times' Jamelle Bouie put it, more on "the John Fetterman continuum than he is on the Trump continuum, which is just, eh, kind of dirtbaggy."

It's worth asking why such candor is missing in progressive discourse about Platner. There seems to be a broad disinclination to admit openly that "a dirtbag is better than a fascist," even though that's a pretty good argument in favor of voting for Platner. (Susan Collins may not be a fascist, but she supports pogroms.) Instead, there are endless attempts to overlook the obvious in the hopes that he will bring change to the Democratic Party, therefore change to America. “His wife stands by him, and I don’t think we have any option but to trust that at this point,” one Democratic voter told NOTUS. "The tattoo, the sexting — which I thought was ridiculous as far as an issue — and a couple other things, they don’t look good, but he’s a realized man,” another said. "In a way it’s, ‘Do you believe in redemption?’” said another.

Of all people, Bernie Sanders comes off as the most sincere of Platner's progressive supporters. Instead of phony redemption stories, he suggested that the United States Senate is full of dirtbags and asked: Who cares about them when America needs the courage "to take on the big money that is dominating this country"? The problem, of course, is one of faith. If Mainers send Platner to the Senate, can they trust their dirtbag to fight the other dirtbags?

Platner's progressive supporters are right to chafe at comparisons between Platner and Trump, as they are morally distinct, but their man still benefits from the comparison, as it provides cover for questions of character and integrity that would otherwise dog him, and the questions of judgment and trustworthiness that are a consequence of that. Instead, they can shout "vote blue no matter who" without taking full responsibility for their goals. It's better to tell tall tales about redemption while blaming Trump for the overall degradation of politics. Fact is, however, character still counts, for a lot, but in pretending that it doesn't, Platner's progressives end up playing by the rules of fascism even as they claim to fight it.

Evidence mounts that Trump is both physically and mentally incapable

I do not wish Trump ill. While he hasn’t shown a shred of compassion for anyone other than himself, this doesn’t justify our lacking compassion for him.

It’s also in the interest of America and the world that he be physically and mentally able to discharge the duties of his office.

So we have reason to be concerned about Trump’s visit to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center early Tuesday for what the White House called a “routine annual dental and medical assessment.”

Trump turns 80 next month. I feel entitled to comment on the practical meaning of this milestone because I’ll also turn 80 next month (he was born 10 days before me).

Let’s just say that reaching it doesn’t mean altogether good things, unless you consider the alternative.

Even in a healthy person, small things begin to break down as one approaches 80. Everything takes just a bit more time and effort. Joints ache. Energy isn’t quite as abundant.

The 80-year-old mind isn’t as quick. The frontal lobe’s capacity to remember names goes to s---. (Yesterday, I could barely remember the name of a garage mechanic whom I’ve known for nearly half a century.)

Taken separately, such minor frailties are typically no more than a personal frustration, but they begin to mount up. In a president of the United States, they can pose a major challenge to the nation and world.

Trump frequently proclaims he’s in excellent health. “Just finished my 6 month physical at Walter Reed Military Medical Center. Everything checked out PERFECTLY,” he wrote on Truth Social early yesterday afternoon. “Thank you to the great Doctors and Staff! Heading back to the White House.”

But even “PERFECTLY” is a relative concept for someone ending his seventh decade and beginning his eighth, who’s the oldest person to assume the presidency and the second-oldest to hold the office. (Joe Biden was 82 when he left in 2025.)

Presidents aren’t legally required to release their medical records, but, given the effluvium of lies in which Trump permanently floats, we’d be excused if we didn’t entirely trust this PERFECTLY report.

Plus, there are his bruised hands, swollen ankles, bouts of drowsiness, exceedingly long blinks during official meetings (some call them “naps”), and erratic — if not off-the-charts weird — behavior.

Add in the frequency of his health “checkups.”

Tuesday’s visit to Walter Reed was Trump’s third in-person doctor’s visit in a little over a year. His first physical of this term of office was in mid-April last year. He returned in early October for a “semiannual physical.” In early January, he had what was described as a brief dental appointment. Earlier this month, another dental appointment. Followed by his return to Walter Reed on Tuesday for his third “annual” physical in 13 months.

Consider also the shifting explanations. In July, Navy Capt. Sean Barbabella, Trump’s physician, explained that bruises on Trump’s right hand were “consistent with minor soft tissue irritation from frequent handshaking.” The explanation seemed plausible until the bruises spread to his left hand.

Then there’s the changing story about Trump’s scans. In December he told reporters that he’d had an MRI in October but wasn’t sure what part of his body was scanned. “It wasn’t the brain,” he said, defensively, “because I took a cognitive test and I aced it.” Barbabella then issued a memo explaining it had been a scan of his heart and abdomen, and that in both cases the advanced imaging was “perfectly normal.”

In January, Trump altered his story to say it was a CT scan rather than an MRI. Why? Trump being Trump, he doesn’t want anyone to know anything about his health that might reveal something he fears enemies and critics might see as a weakness.

“In retrospect, it’s too bad I took [the scan] because it gave them a little ammunition,” Trump said. “I would have been a lot better off if [I] didn’t, because the fact that I took it said, ‘Oh gee, is something wrong?’ Well, nothing’s wrong.”

What’s he afraid of? Probably that the American public will catch on to his rapidly diminishing capacities.

Three years ago, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, only 28 percent of the public thought Trump insufficiently healthy to hold the nation’s highest office. Earlier this month, the same poll found that 55 percent of the public thought his health insufficient for him to serve effectively.

Behind the public’s mounting worries is a growing sense that Trump isn’t mentally all there.

Physical and mental health aren’t easily separated, especially as one reaches 80. I often can’t remember where I put my wallet and keys or why I’ve entered a room. I also have less patience than I used to. I’m less tolerant of long waiting lines, automated phone menus, and Republicans.

But if Trump can’t remember where he put, say, a top-secret memo or why he entered the Situation Room, or if he expresses bizarre impatience, it’s a potential risk to the nation and world.

Worse, Trump is exhibiting clear symptoms of dementia.

“Open the F-----’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in H---” Trump exploded on his social media Easter morning, adding an Islamic prayer to the end of the post.

The following Tuesday he threatened that unless Iran struck a deal in 12 hours, its whole civilization would die.

When Iran shot down two U.S. airmen, aides who were getting minute-by-minute updates reportedly kept Trump out of the Situation Room because they believed his impatience wouldn’t be helpful, a senior administration official said.

Then came Trump’s rant against the pope.

“Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy. … I like his brother Louis much better than I like him, because Louis is all MAGA. He gets it, and Leo doesn’t! … Leo should get his act together as Pope, use Common Sense, stop catering to the Radical Left, and focus on being a Great Pope, not a Politician. It’s hurting him very badly and, more importantly, it’s hurting the Catholic Church!”

During a subsequent Q&A with reporters, Trump doubled down: “I don’t think he’s doing a very good job. He likes crime, I guess. … I am not a fan of Pope Leo.”

Days later Trump posted an AI-generated portrait of himself as a kind of American Jesus. When this caused a wave of criticism and outrage (much of it from fundamentalist Christians), he insisted he was portraying himself “as a doctor, making people better.”

Rather than helping Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections by, for example, embarking on an “affordability tour” (as White House aides have urged him to do), Trump has been on a “revenge tour” against Republican members of Congress he deems insufficiently loyal — a gambit that may cost Republicans dearly in the midterms.

At yesterday’s Cabinet meeting, Trump touted the primary wins of Republicans he endorsed, including yesterday’s Texas victory of Ken Paxton over incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn.

Paxton carries more baggage than the U.S. Postal Service — including abuse-of-office allegations from his top staff, an indictment for securities fraud, impeachment by Texas’s Republican House, and an ongoing divorce initiated by his wife, who alleges adultery — which will help the Democratic challenger, James Talarico.

Yet Trump insisted at the Cabinet meeting that “I don’t care about the midterms.” He was referring to Iranian officials who “thought they were going to outwait me” by relying on mounting political pressures to force him to give up, but he might as well have been talking about the blowback from his revenge tour.

Trump ended yesterday’s Cabinet meeting with further evidence of his mental decline in another rant against Somali-Americans. “The Somalians, what they’ve done to Minnesota, the Somalians, crooked as hell. Ilhan Omar, crooked as hell,” he said, in reference to the Democratic congresswoman from Minnesota. “They’re all crooks, and we got them, we got them. Now we’re putting the clamps on,” Trump said.

His antipathy toward Somali-Americans is growing, with his dementia. In December, weeks before ICE went on a rampage in Minneapolis, Trump claimed Somalis made Minnesota a “hellhole,” saying “the Somalians should be out of here. They’ve destroyed our country.” Of Somalia-born Omar, Trump said, “she shouldn’t be allowed to be a congresswoman, and I’m sure people are looking at that. She should be thrown the h--- out of our country.” A day earlier, he called the congresswoman “garbage,” saying he didn’t want Somalis in the U.S.

Can you imagine any other president of the United States singling out a group of foreign-born Americans like this? Of course not.

The evidence continues to mount. Trump is both physically and mentally incapable of discharging the duties of president of the United States.

The sooner the 25th Amendment is invoked, or he is impeached, the safer America and the world will be.

Robert Reich is a professor of public policy at Berkeley and former secretary of labor. His writings can be found at https://robertreich.substack.com/.

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