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Trump's plan to rig the midterms is backfiring 'in a major way': CNN data guru

Last year, President Donald Trump urged Republicans in Texas to draw a new congressional district map five years ahead of schedule. The new GOP-friendly district boundaries were expected to give Republicans a five-seat advantage in this year's midterm elections. But less than a year later, Republicans are actually lagging behind Democrats in the redistricting battle.

That's according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten, who laid out how Democrats have so far out-maneuvered Republicans in congressional redistricting. The Daily Beast reported Thursday that Enten crunched the numbers and estimated Democrats would be roughly one seat ahead after all the smoke has cleared.

In a segment on CNN News Central, Enten told host Kate Bolduan that when factoring in Democratic responses to Texas' gerrymandered maps, Republicans' efforts have so far failed to bear fruit. This includes new maps in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio that each gave Republicans an additional seat in the House of Representatives.

Democrats in California countered Texas' maps by voting overwhelmingly for Prop 50, which put in place new maps giving Democrats an advantage in five Republican-held districts. And in deep-red Utah, a judge struck an all-Republican redistricting map, giving Democrats an additional seat in the Beehive State.

The GOP's efforts in Indiana also failed, despite Republicans controlling both chambers of the state legislature and Gov. Mike Braun (R) pushing hard for new GOP-friendly maps. And Democrats in blue states like Maryland, New York and Virginia are poised to re-draw their maps to give Democrats an advantage.

"The bottom line is this: it started out as a plus for Republicans, and now it looks like the Democrats have fought back and fought back in a major way," Enten said. "It looks like it‘s going to be a plus for them nationwide."

"If you said to me last summer, Democrats are more likely to gain than Republicans, I wouldn‘t buy it," he continued. "But again, as I said at the start, Donald Trump and the Republicans started this mid-decade redistricting war, but it looks like Democrats are going to finish him off."

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Young Republicans were more proud to be American under Obama than under Trump: data analyst

CNN data analyst Harry Enten sorts through revealing polls and surveys of American attitudes, looking for shifts, and his latest finding is an indictment of President Donald Trump from members of his own party.

Speaking with Kate Bolduan on Tuesday, Enten explored patriotism among young Americans. His report comes after Olympians spoke out about their displeasure with how the U.S. government treats immigrants.

Using Gallup Poll data, Enten said that in 2015, 71 percent of people under 35 were "extremely proud or very proud" to be American. That number today is at 36 percent.

While Enten said that young Republican numbers hadn't changed much, the reality is that Republican voters under 35 were prouder to be American under President Barack Obama than under Trump.

In 2013, the number of surveyors who said they were "extremely proud or very proud" to be American was 92 percent. Today, that number is at 80 percent, a 12-point drop under their most recent Republican president.

"So, what we're seeing is we're seeing younger people and Democrats really shifting away, shifting downward in their proudness to be an American," Enten closed.

"But Democrats are very much shifting away as the partisanship of the president, saying Donald Trump has really sort of changed the equation for young Americans and Democratic Americans, or those who identify as Democrats," he added.

CNN's data guru flags 'shocker' he sees for 2028 election

CNN analyst Harry Enten noted that President Donald Trump and GOP allies began a mid-decade redistricting effort in Texas, but the outcome appears to have shifted.

In 2025, when the effort began, Enten said Republicans appeared poised to benefit.

"But today, at this point, the most likely outcome is Democrats gaining from the mid-decade redistricting battle," he said.

He based this calculation on the redistricting fight itself, not on projections of individual House member elections.

"I wouldn't be surprised if it's tied. I wouldn't be surprised if Democrats actually gain two or three seats from the mid-decade redistricting battle. But the bottom line is this: it started out as a plus for Republicans, and now it looks like Democrats have fought back in a major way. It looks like it's going to be a plus for them nationwide," Enten said.

According to Enten, Republicans initiated the mid-decade redistricting effort, but Democrats have made significant gains in the process.

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'Atrocious': Trump 'in trouble' with Republicans thanks to slumping economy

CNN data analyst Harry Enten ran the numbers on Republican supporters of President Donald Trump, focusing specifically on the economy. It showed that one year into his presidency, he's at the worst point ever.

Speaking Monday to host John Berman, Enten said that around this time in Trump's first term, he was doing well, but now Enten characterized it as "staggering."

Flapping his arms, Enten said, "You know, the economy used to be the wind beneath Donald Trump's presidency wings. And now it's his Titanic. Because what are we talking about here? Well, let's just take a look here. Trump's economic net approval one year in term one. Hey! Yeah! Plus side of the ledger plus eight points. It was his best issue, arguably, but now it's one of his worst. Look at that. Way, way down in the basement, 18 points below water. What is that? A 26-point switcheroo in the wrong direction. This is the type of number that Democratic midterm dreams are made of, and Republican nightmares are also made of."

The voters are putting the blame squarely on the Trump administration.

"The Trump admin has made the economy worse or better? You go back to January of 2018, term number one, the plurality winner there was better at 40 percent, just 22 percent said worse. Look at this side of the screen. The exact opposite story. What a switcheroo. My goodness gracious, 52 percent of Americans say the Trump admin. policies had made the economy worse," Enten explained.

But the real staggering number comes from Republican supporters who typically give Trump his high marks regardless of the issue. Recently, only 57 percent of Republicans agree with Trump's work on the economy.

"This — this more than anything else — it is what is driving Donald Trump's approval rating overall down. It is the economy. It's the number one issue. And the American people believe that Donald Trump is failing on the key number one issue," Enten said.

"But this is the number that absolutely blew my mind," Enten continued. "Oh my goodness gracious. Trump's economic net approval one year in among independents in term one. He was ten points above water. Look at where he is today. Whoa, 43 points below. That's a 53-point switcheroo. You can't win elections when on the number one issue, you are 43 points below water among independents. This is just absolutely atrocious."

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CNN data guru reveals why Dems have '100 percent' chance of winning midterms

CNN data analyst Harry Enten reports Democrats are enjoying a rare double-digit lead ahead of the midterms that is all but guaranteeing them control of the House after November.

“Take a look at party identification — those who identify as Democrats or Republicans — and look at the margin that Democrats have now versus where it was a year ago,” said Enten, referring to young adults in the "Gen Z" cohort between the ages of 18 and 29. “It goes from plus six points in 2024 to plus 20 points [in 2025].”

Enten said this is the generation that’s becoming a bigger size of the electorate with each year, and they are moving not just away from the Republican party but specially away from President Donald Trump.

“This is not just about party identification,” said Enten. “I mean, look at the hard results on the ground. Look at Trump's net approval rating among Generation Z and compare it where we were at the beginning of 2025.”

In 2024, Trump had Generation Z’s approval by plus ten points, and had made gains among Generation Z going from 2020 to 2024.

“Now he is 32 points underwater,” said Enten. “That is a 42-point swing in less than a year. So, what we're seeing in party identification isn't just staying there. It's moving over and affecting how Generation Z feels about the president himself.”

“It's a stampede,” said CNN host Erin Burnett. “It's a tsunami!”

“It’s huge,” agreed Enten, “but I'll tell you something you don't know: Why is party ID so important? I mentioned that Democrats gained amongst them overall on party ID. If in fact their lead, which they currently have, holds until the midterm election — I went back and looked at every single midterm election since 1982, when Democrats hold the lead on party identification, they go on, in fact, to gain House seats.”

“They only need to gain a few house seats in order to gain control,” said Enten. “So, at this point, the Democrats lead on party identification bode very, very well for the midterm elections 100 percent of the time since 1982.”

Watch the video below:

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Warning signs flash for GOP as data analyst predicts House flip

As Republicans continue their exodus from the House, a CNN analyst reveals that Democrats hold an advantage in party identification over the GOP, Democrats identifying as liberal just hit a 50-year high, and Democrats — he predicts — will take back the House in the November midterm elections.

CNN analyst Harry Enten reported that “the self identified liberalness of this country is at a 50-year high.” And he noted that “more folks are identifying as liberal than at any point since the Gerald Ford administration.”

In 1976, 30 percent of Democrats said they were liberal, Enten said.

“Look at where we are today: 59 percent — 3 in 5 Democrats — say they are liberal.”

“This Democratic party is a liberal — it is a liberal party. Fifty-nine percent of Democrats now identify as liberal,” he continued. “That is also a 50-year high.”

Enten noted that “that is not the only good news for liberals.”

“The party ID margin, Democrats versus Republicans. Now get this, in the latest reading according to Gallup last quarter, it is an eight-point advantage for Democrats.”

“That looks nothing like what we saw going into the 2022 midterms when Republicans had a five-point advantage, and of course, took back the House. This is even better than what we saw Democrats had back in 2017, in quarter four, when they had a six-point advantage, and, of course, Democrats easily took back the House then.”

“Democrats are gonna take back the House,” he said.

Enten also pointed to the prediction markets, which now say there is a 77 percent chance of Democrats taking back the House in November.

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CNN data guru reveals key metric that suggests midterm wipeout for Republicans

The low polling of Congress won't matter much if American voters are furious with the president, CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, explained looking at new numbers.

Speaking Monday, Enten explored the low approval of Republicans, showing that support for Democratic members has increased five points at the start of 2026. He noted that it was the same trend seen before the 2018 midterm elections when President Donald Trump lost power in Congress.

He explained that in midterm elections, the voters more motivated are generally the ones who win. What is different in Jan. 2026 is that Democrats are 16 points higher than Republicans on motivation. In 2018 that number was just five points up from the GOP.

One problem is that Democratic congressional leadership has lower numbers than GOP members. Enten said, however, that a lot of that disapproval is coming from Democratic voters themselves, who are angry with the congressional leadership.

"Here is the key nugget when we're talking about midterm elections: It's about one person really, and one person only. And that is the president of the United States," said Enten.

"And take a look here. Choice for Congress. If you disapprove of Trump and 59 percent of voters in our poll disapprove of Trump of Trump, look at this 76 percent, about three and four, in fact, slightly more than three and four say they're going to vote for the Democrats for Congress, compared to just 8 percent who say they're going to vote for the Republicans for Congress," Enten continued. "So yes, it is absolutely the case that congressional leadership on the democratic side is not well liked among Democrats compared to what we see historically and not well liked compared to what we see among Republicans."

The reality, he said, is that it may not matter given Trump is the head of the party.

"The vast majority of Americans and voters don't like the job that he's doing," Enten added, saying it reminds him of the 2010 midterm election.

"There were a lot of folks who didn't like what Republican congressional leadership was doing. And guess what?" Enten closed. "It didn't matter because voters didn't like the job that Barack Obama was doing back then, and they punished Democrats who lost control of the House. And one of the largest waves, in fact, the largest wave of either of our lifetimes."

Watch the segment below:


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CNN data guru reveals why Melania film likely to be historic box office failure

First Lady Melania Trump's eponymous film is slated to be released in theaters this weekend. But the film is likely to bomb at the box office, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten.

In a Tuesday segment on CNN's "OutFront," Enten told host Erin Burnett that there were multiple signs that "Melania" was going to perform poorly on its opening weekend. He noted that prediction markets show that a majority of bettors believe the documentary will gave a score of less than 20 percent on popular film review site Rotten Tomatoes.

"That's not good, Erin. That's not good, being below 20 percent," Enten said. "... And why is it why do they feel that the odds might not be so hot to trot? Well, it comes back to the fact that's the same reason that we don't think that it's going to necessarily be selling out a whole heck of a lot of tickets. Why? Because what's the projection for opening weekend for 'Melania?' It's just one to five million dollars, which is again, not so great."

Enten compared the box office projection to the first lady's film with that of Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11," which is the current highest-grossing documentary of all time. Adjusted for inflation, Moore's film topped $41 million in its opening weekend, dwarfing projections for "Melania."

The CNN analyst underscored his argument by pointing to Amazon's staggering production costs for the film. When accounting for the $40 million Amazon paid Melania Trump for the exclusive rights to the movie, and the $35 million spent on advertising the film, the Jeff Bezos-owned media giant stands to lose tens of millions of dollars on the project.

"And one would think, given their marketing savvy, perhaps they were aware of that," Burnett quipped, before Enten chimed in and noted that Bezos was still making money hand-over-fist with President Donald Trump back in the White House.

"The film 'Melania' might not be doing so hot to trot come this weekend, but Jeff Bezos is doing quite well," he said. "... His wealth —booyah! — up $35 billion since early November of 2024. I think there are some people who might see a connection between that and the money being spent. I'm not necessarily making that connection, but some people certainly are."


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Trump 'losing political fight’ to Fed chair: CNN analyst

President Donald Trump does not have the support of the vast majority of Americans in his efforts to reduce the independence of the Federal Reserve, according to a CNN analyst.

For months, Trump has actively been attempting to get Chairman Jerome Powell to reduce interest rates, but Powell and the majority of the Federal Reserve governors have stood their ground, only reducing rates when they saw fit.

On Sunday, Chairman Powell revealed that he is under a criminal investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice, an investigation stemming from his congressional testimony on the renovation of Federal Reserve buildings. The Fed is fully self-funded, and that renovation is not funded by American taxpayers.

The American people think it is “incredibly important that the Fed acts independently of Donald Trump, and they think it’s best for the economy,” says CNN analyst Harry Enten.

“We’re talking about more than two-thirds of adults — 68 percent, 91 percent of Democrats, 75 percent of independents, and even 41 percent — two-fifths of Trump’s base, thinks it’s important that the Fed acts independently of Trump for the best of the economy,” Enten explained.

“The bottom line is, the American people vigorously disagree with the president of the United States on this,” he continued. “They want a Fed that acts independently of him, because they think it’s best for the economy.”

“Donald Trump is losing the political fight to Jerome Powell,” Enten added. He pointed to a December Gallup poll in which, he said, “Trump comes in at negative 23 points” and has “an approval rating way, way, way underwater.”

And while Powell is “not the most popular guy in the world,” he is “actually the most popular guy that Gallup polled of any, any of the politicians, any of the folks in government, he is far more popular than Donald Trump.”

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Wall Street encouraged to clap harder after Melania gets weak applause at NYSE

First Lady Melania Trump had to endure an embarrassing appearance at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) ahead of the opening weekend of her new film.

The Daily Beast reported Wednesday that when the first lady appeared in front of an assembled crowd of traders to ring the opening bell, she stood silently as she was greeted by tepid applause. The weak response from the crowd didn't go unnoticed by NYSE Group President Lynn Martin, who can be seen on video lifting her arms up repeatedly to encourage traders to clap harder for the first lady.

As Melania rang the opening bell to lukewarm cheers, CNBC correspondent David Faber could be heard talking about "the tightrope that many corporate leaders walk" between navigating President Donald Trump's White House and managing expectations of shareholders, employees and customers. Then, as Martin prodded the crowd, the Beast wrote that there was a "noticeable rise in volume" in applause.

In response to the awkward moment, satirist Paul Rudnick quipped: "When Melania rang the opening bell at the NY Stock Exchange today, the crowd barely noticed and had to be forced to applaud by her staff, who reportedly told everyone, 'If you don't clap we'll force you to see her movie.'"

"Abraham Lincoln said watching 'MELANIA' was the worst experience he's ever had in a theatre," tweeted author Craig Tyson Adams.

The first lady's eponymous film is projected to bring in just $1 to $5 million at the box office this coming weekend, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten. This is despite Amazon paying Melania $40 million for the exclusive rights to the movie last year, and spending an additional $35 million on advertising.

"We don't think that it's going to necessarily be selling out a whole heck of a lot of tickets," Enten told CNN host Erin Burnett on Tuesday.

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Two Trump Cabinet members bail on Melania film screening

First Lady Melania Trump's eponymous film is debuting this weekend — but two of her husband's top officials are already giving excuses for not attending a viewing event.

The conservative Washington Times reported Thursday that "Melania" will be screening for a select audience at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington D.C. The First Couple will be in attendance for tonight's viewing, along with the president's Cabinet — save for two members.

"Intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard and Energy Secretary Chris Wright had previous obligations," the Washington Times reported, without details on Gabbard and Wright's prior engagements. Both officials were present at the White House for Thursday's Cabinet meeting.

According to the Daily Beast, the screening will also be attended by White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and Second Lady Usha Vance. Other guests include a smattering of celebrities and public figures including Fox host Maria Bartiromo, former New York City Mayor Eric Adams, rapper Waka Flocka Flame, convicted fraudster Jordan Belfort (who inspired the film The Wolf of Wall Street) along with various NFL players and UFC fighters.

Melania's film is projected to bomb at the box office, with CNN data analyst Harry Enten observing that the film is only expected to bring in $1 million to $5 million in ticket sales during its opening weekend. Enten also noted that online betting markets put strong odds at the film scoring 20 percent or less on film review site Rotten Tomatoes. This is despite Amazon paying Melania Trump $40 million for the exclusive rights to the film, and spending $35 million on advertising.

The first lady recently appeared on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) earlier this week to ring the opening bell – which is often a tradition for celebrities promoting an upcoming project. When she was greeted with a lukewarm reception, NYSE Group President Lynn Martin could be seen on video lifting her arms up to the assembled crowd of traders, encouraging them to clap harder.

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