Roger Chesley, Virginia Mercury

'Death of the Republic': Top analyst fears GOP wipeout is only the beginning

Larry Sabato, the decades-long University of Virginia political analyst, had a dire warning for Republican congressional candidates last week:

You’re going down in the U.S. House of Representatives. And you might lose your slim majority in the U.S. Senate, too, after the Nov. 3 elections.

“It’s either going to be a sizable blue wave, or it’s going to be a tsunami,” Sabato, founder and director of U.Va.’s Center for Politics and head of the eponymous Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told nearly 250 people at The Slover building in downtown Norfolk last week. The perennial prognosticator relayed similar comments to me in a brief interview just before his address.

The Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political analysis newsletter, forms its projections by polling, reporting, studying electoral history and other factors. Sabato said Democrats could win at least 224 seats in the House of Representatives (they now trail Republicans 218-214, with one independent and two vacancies). In the Senate, he said, Democrats should do no worse than 50-50. (The GOP currently holds a 53-47 advantage.)

Sabato’s Crystal Ball recently rated the seat held by U.S. Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Virginia Beach, as “leans Democratic.” She’s in a rematch with former Democrat U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria, and it’s one of the more-competitive contests nationwide. The group rated the race of longtime incumbent U.S. Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Westmoreland, as a toss-up. He’s battling Democrat Shannon Taylor.

Such predictions and the latest polls explain why President Donald Trump has undermined the electoral process – including demanding uncustomary mid-decade redistricting in red states to try to gain more Republican seats in the House. He’s also lied incessantly about voting security and accuracy. More on that later.

Sabato told those gathered that a “national funk” often haunts the president’s party during the midterms – especially, he said, in the sixth year of an incumbent’s time in office. (This is Trump’s sixth year over two non-consecutive terms.)

I’d add that there’s despair coupled with outright fear among many Americans because of Trump’s policies that have caused so much havoc:

  • A war of choice in which the United States joined Israel against Iran. It was poorly conceived, the president hasn’t sufficiently explained why our country is even waging it, and the conflict has no end in sight. The war has boosted gasoline and diesel prices astronomically nationwide. For example, AAA reported regular gas cost an average of $4.09 a gallon in Virginia on Friday; diesel totaled $6.27 a gallon.
  • Trump’s misguided fascination with and implementation of tariffs. A recent Cato Institute/Morning Consult survey of 4,150 registered voters found 74% say that Trump’s tariffs increased the prices of things they buy – including 66% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats. A majority believes the tariffs have weakened the U.S. economy. Americans see the effects in their wallets.

Sabato, a Norfolk native, also worried about the fate of our democracy – regardless of elections.

“We’ve lost the ability” to have meaningful conversations about the public good, he told me. “We’re at the point where it is very possible to construct the decline and death of the Republic. … You can see how it might” happen.

Later, fielding a question from the audience about the lack of civility in public speech, Sabato added, “We’ve gone down some notches. And we’re so nasty to one another.”

That brings me back to Trump and his administration’s machinations going into the midterms. The president has brayed about electoral problems – knowing he’s exaggerating or outright lying. He’s doing this because his haphazard and narcissistic leadership has alienated many Americans and threatened their day-to-day living conditions.

The worst actions, which a GOP majority in Congress approved, targeted low-income people with cuts to Medicaid and food stamps. The cruelty was unnecessary.

That’s why Trump demanded, starting in 2025, that GOP-controlled states overhaul congressional boundaries to create more Republican-leaning districts. The decision defied customs. It led to a backlash from Democratic-controlled states that fought the craven map-drawing with their own craven map-drawing.

Democrats in Virginia embarked on a similar crusade, and a referendum passed by 3 percentage points to allow drawing of new districts in the commonwealth. But the Virginia Supreme Court overturned the electorate’s decision.

The president also has tried to pre-empt his party’s inevitable losses next month by relying on a well-worn practice: denigrating the very voting systems that placed him in office not once, but twice. He’d rather throw doubt on the upcoming results than concede defeat – leading us down the path of becoming a Banana Republic.

What else should we expect, however, from the person who incited the Jan. 6 attempted overthrow of the 2020 elections?

His wild-eye conspiracy theories usually don’t stand up to judicial muster: The Supreme Court this year blocked his attempt to have the U.S. Postal Service screen mail ballots.

That hasn’t stopped him mucking up things, even as his favorability ratings crater. He’s threatened local officials with criminal prosecution over their voter rolls. In Virginia last week, Arlington County officials sued the administration to prevent it from sending armed federal agents to polling places.

That’s why Sabato’s predictions aren’t a surprise.

People are suffering across Virginia and the country. They’ll express that discontent during the midterm elections.

Another private company capitulates to Trump — without even fighting back

Note to the decision-makers at the Gallup Organization, which for nearly 90 years has tracked presidential approval ratings: Capitulation never works.

I learned this the hard way as a teen playing basketball on D.C. playgrounds. I regretted my fecklessness.

Gallup last week admitted it would no longer survey Americans’ sentiments on how the commander in chief was faring, though I couldn’t find news of that major switch on the company’s website.

The organization’s latest presidential barometer, in December, placed Donald Trump’s approval rating at an abysmal 36%. The worst was 34%, another honorific Trump earned as he was leaving office at the end of his first term. It was right after the Jan. 6, 2021, siege on the U.S. Capitol.

Yes, other companies conduct surveys nowadays about the presidency. Gallup, though, held a unique place in the industry.

A Gallup spokesman told The New York Times the company was shifting strategy. He also used other corporate-speak that, frankly, doesn’t justify Gallup’s cowardice.

As The Times noted, the polling firm’s decades of data gave “historical context to what amounts to a monthly snapshot of Americans’ views.” The independent barometer has been valuable.

It’s curious the company didn’t make the change under then-President Joe Biden, but is doing so now under a thin-skinned president.

Trump and his administration have targeted journalists with criminal indictments, filed lawsuits against media outlets and often lied about the actions of violent federal immigration agents – even when video footage and witness statements proved the contrary.

My questions to Gallup’s media folks, including what role Trump’s attacks on journalists played in the polling decision, weren’t returned by my deadline.

Gallup’s groveling reminds me of when I relinquished my chance to play a playground basketball game – even though I’d earned it – to a guy bigger, stronger, and a little older than me. “I’m taking your spot,” he declared, with a hint of menace.

The shame was I didn’t fight for it, even if I would’ve gotten bloodied. I couldn’t return to that court because no one would respect me. As I got older, I stood up for myself more, no matter whether it made me uncomfortable.

That a private company like Gallup would cave so dramatically to this administration is reprehensible. Why is it acting beholden to officials who disrespect law, precedent and common decency?

The capitulation is a stain on Gallup’s reputation and legacy, and it leaves Americans with less information on how we all feel our top government executive is faring.

Trump hopes the last line of defense will cower in the face of his threats

Donald Trump, the once-and-future president, holds special animus for people who dare question his statements and actions. At a rally just before Election Day, he placed journalists in the cross-hairs, at least figuratively.

Trump told rallygoers in Pennsylvania it wouldn’t bother him if someone shot the reporters there covering the event. He had mentioned an opening between the panels of bulletproof glass; Trump had faced an assassination attempt during a July rally.

“To get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news, and I don’t mind that so much,” Trump told the crowd. Folks there laughed and shouted howls of approval. Nothing like bloodshed, I suppose, to satisfy the masses.

In an eight-week period before the election, Trump verbally attacked the media more than 100 times, Reporters Without Borders noted. That total didn’t even include social media posts.

He’s recently called journalists “monsters” and “horrible, horrible, dishonest people.” (That’s rich coming from the guy who lied or otherwise uttered misleading statements more than 30,000 times in his first term.) He sued CBS News some $10 billion for its editing of a “60 Minutes” interview with Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris, though such editing is commonplace.

Disabuse yourself of the notion these are merely routine comments by Trump, the nation’s only convicted felon to be voted commander in chief. Doesn’t he do this all the time? Sure. Have such statements ever really led to harm? Well …

Circumstances are different now, since he’ll have sycophants and supreme loyalists staffing his second administration. That’s not like the first term, when he often faced pushback from top advisors.

And we all witnessed – in real time and shocking video footage – how he incited a failed insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Trump’s oft-unhinged rantings matter. His fervent followers could take a directive to attack reporters as a call to (fire)arms.

Which is exactly the point. He wants journalists looking over their shoulders and focusing on would-be attackers, rather than writing forcefully about Trump’s leadership – including its deficiencies.

“If we’ve learned one thing about Trump and contemporary authoritarians, we have to take them at their word,” Bruce Shapiro, executive director of the Dart Center for Journalism and Trauma at Columbia University, told me in an interview. “Making the press the enemy of the people is central to the MAGA project.”

The president-elect’s words “give permission to people in his movement” to assault others, Shapiro added. “It’s not mere bombast when a ‘joke’ is part of a movement that valorizes violence, that declares people ‘the enemies from within.’”

This may sound far-fetched to you. But as a member of the profession constantly under siege by a politician who wouldn’t accept his 2020 defeat, and who sees any criticism as a reason to erupt, I don’t take these attacks lightly. Nor do my colleagues.

“It takes a toll on the journalists” who cover the president, Shapiro said.

The Committee to Protect Journalists, a nonprofit group based in New York City, reported recently that Trump has mulled strengthening libel laws, weakening First Amendment protections and prosecuting reporters for critical coverage. For a man willing to excoriate anyone, and who wields such a huge megaphone, he has notoriously thin skin.

Journalists face this onslaught at a time of shrinking newsroom budgets, fewer local reporters and the closing of many publications around the country, CPJ noted. Its interviews with journalists, lawyers, and press freedom advocates “found that media workers are confronting challenges that include an increased risk of violence, arrest, on- and offline harassment, legal battles, and criminalization.”

Joel Simon, director of the Journalism Protection Initiative at the Graduate School of Journalism at City University of New York, noted Trump’s bombast is often used to draw attention to himself, rather than issues that have greater importance.

The language can be “incredibly menacing and threatening,” Simon told me, but it also “can be used to manipulate coverage.”

“It’s incredibly destructive,” Simon said. “But I don’t think it’s causing journalists to cover him in a different way.”

Relatively few journalists in this country over the past 50 years have been slain because of the stories they were covering, but it does happen. Victims include my onetime associate Chauncey Bailey, who worked at the competing daily newspaper in Detroit when we both were reporters there. We chatted about the craft, and we often played basketball together.

Bailey was gunned down in 2007 in downtown Oakland while walking to work. He had been reporting on a story about financial problems at a business called Your Black Muslim Bakery. A coalition of local media formed the Chauncey Bailey Project to investigate the death and the police handling of the killing. Eventually, three men were sentenced to prison in the case.

Jeff German, an investigative reporter at the Las Vegas Review-Journal, was stabbed to death in September 2022. He had reported on a hostile workplace environment in the office of Robert Telles, a then-elected official. Telles was sentenced last month to at least 28 years in prison.

Trump doesn’t need to know reporters personally, but he can still place their lives at risk. His own statements could “nudge” any one of his followers nationwide to commit violence against journalists. He’d also enjoy some plausible deniability.

Trump, one of the most reckless presidents in U.S. history, is rushing headlong into fascism. He enjoys a pliant, spineless Republican Party. After the House of Representatives impeached Trump over Jan. 6, GOP senators whom he placed in jeopardy that day refused to convict him.

He benefits from an overtly partisan Supreme Court majority. It blessed his attempts this summer to gain broad immunity from prosecution related to his plot to overturn the 2020 election. It was a shocking ruling.

My colleagues in the Fourth Estate are one of the few lines of defense left. We’re willing to say when Trump is wrong, lying or violating the Constitution. It’s why the Narcissist-in-Chief has placed a target on our backs.

That’s no accident.

Virginia Mercury is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Virginia Mercury maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Samantha Willis for questions: info@virginiamercury.com. Follow Virginia Mercury on Facebook and X.

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