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Meet the Rural Pennsylvania Town at the Forefront of Environmental Law

Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. And sometimes the game is rigged. When that happens, you can give up — or you can try to change the game.

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Sea-Level Rise Will Send Millions of U.S. Climate Refugees to Inland Cities

When rising waters from superstorms like Katrina or Sandy inundate heavily populated coastal communities, vast numbers of people will abandon their destroyed homes and flee for safety and shelter elsewhere.

After Katrina struck New Orleans in 2005, as many as 400,000 residents evacuated, some temporarily, some permanently, many to live with friends and family, others to places unknown. No comprehensive records exist of their destinations. Many people did come back to the city, although not necessarily to their former homes. African-Americans in particular returned at a much slower pace than their white counterparts, because their homes had been in neighborhoods more severely damaged by flooding.

Income levels also play a role. The new study estimates that coastal residents with an annual incomes of more than $100,000 might be better able to invest in protective measures against sea-level rise and, as a result, less likely to migrate.

Kevin Trenberth, a noted climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who was not involved in the study, said that numerous factors influence and complicate migration trends following a flood.

“Sea-level rise from climate change occurs slowly and gradually, but its effects are profound and manifested when three things or more come together — a storm surge on top of a high tide on top of sea-level rise — so it affects people not as a gradual process, but rather as an episodic, catastrophic one,” he said. “Hurricane Katrina or Superstorm Sandy are likely poster children for this.”

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Source: National Center of Atmospheric Research

“The questions that arise are whether an area is abandoned and rebuilt elsewhere, or maybe just abandoned, or whether it is rebuilt where it was,” he added. “Often there are other things in play, [such as] insurance or if the state decides to condemn certain areas for building.”

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, who was not involved in the study, said the research “begins to connect the dots” when it comes to the impact of climate change on migration.

“Where are these people likely to go?” he asked. “And what does it mean when they compete with native inhabitants for the same water, food and land? This is really where the rubber hits the road when it comes to climate change and water, food and land security.”

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