Michael Tomasky

Was Fiscal Cliff Deal a Stinker, or Did Obama Win One?

According to Gallup, two-thirds of Democrats say they're "satisfied" with the deal Congress struck on January 2 to avert the "crisis" that it had itself created. Only 23 percent say they don't like it. Two-thirds of Republicans say they don't approve -- and Rush Limbaugh is typically furious -- but anti-tax zealot Grover Norquist says he is "happy" with the agreement

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Free Market? How Detroit Designed Its Own Catastrophe

Jon Cohn has a very intelligent take on Obama's auto industry announcement today. It's all worth reading. Emotionally, I was struck most strongly by this paragraph:

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Kill Bill

They're not an official category of voters whose tally is measured in exit polls, like whites or blacks, women or men, old or young. And since they're not an official category, we may never really have the evidence.

But I have a feeling I know which group really handed Hillary Clinton - or maybe they were thinking even more of that other Clinton - her decisive loss to Barack Obama in South Carolina on Saturday night. Call them "high-information Democrats."

These are the people who follow all the ins and outs of the contest. They read The New York Times. They watch cable television, probably Keith Olbermann first and foremost. They read blogs. They know every twist and turn, every thrust and parry. And yes, they exist even in South Carolina.

As I said, they are not a measured category. But Obama was ahead by eight to 15 percentage points in most public opinion polls up to Friday. He won by more than that, 28 percentage points. Who accounted for this disparity? We'll need to see raw turnout numbers by region to have a better idea - according to one network exit poll Obama won a majority of college-educated voters, both white and black. I suspect that it's a plausible conclusion that high-information voters swung in Obama's direction in the contest's closing days and hours.

If I'm right, those voters were pretty clearly saying that they didn't like the kind of campaign the Clintons were running against a fellow Democrat. It's a rebuke for both Clintons that will force them to rethink their scorched-earth strategy toward Obama and that presents them with a conundrum.

Hillary Clinton lost Iowa resoundingly. After that defeat, her team obviously decided that it was time to stop limiting itself to the polite pointing out of differences and go all-out against Obama, with the former president taking the lead in making the attacks. Whatever one may think about the propriety of a former president injecting himself so sharply in an intra-party fight, the strategy paid dividends in New Hampshire and Nevada.

But now, the strategy has backfired in a big way. The Clinton camp was saying as recently as Thursday that, while Bill might be a bane as far as the elites were concerned, he was boon as far as rank-and-file voters were concerned. But is that so clear now? I don't think so.

So here's the spot the Clintons are in. They can't run a comparatively "nice" campaign, of the kind they were running in Iowa, because that risks a repeat of the Iowa defeat in some of the February 5 states. However, they also can't go too negative, because that may move high-information voters - and there are more of them, percentage-wise, in the crucial February 5 state of California - toward Obama.

So they have to walk the razor's edge of finding exactly that point on the spectrum that isn't Iowa -- nice but isn't South Carolina -- nasty.

That means, first and foremost, figuring out how they can rein in Bill Clinton, which is no easy task. But it also implies a broader rethinking of a strategy that has aggressively sought to convince Democratic voters that Obama just isn't qualified to be president. That latter strategy failed. Numbers don't lie: voters in two states out of four have concluded that he's just as qualified as Clinton is.

Race? Of course it was a factor. Obama obviously benefited from the fact that the South Carolina vote is half African American. But I've always felt that what the media called a racial fight was also about other things � "race" is one of those red-flag words that the media love to latch on to and can't let go. But by mid-week, the race debate had really turned into a referendum on the Clintons' comportment. A large number of voters said: cool it.

It's worth remembering that Hillary Clinton still has the advantage on February 5. She most likely has a win wrapped up in her adopted home state of New York. She probably has the neighboring, also-delegate-rich state of New Jersey. She's well ahead in the mother-lode state, California. She's ahead in Missouri. She's even ahead in states that Obama "ought" to win February 5, such as Alabama and Tennessee.

Obama has lots of work in front of him. He needs, I think, a little magic in California (will Senator Barbara Boxer endorse him? Just idle speculation, but keep an eye on it). He will have to win most of the February 5 southern states, or the pundits will regard South Carolina as a fluke.

But make no mistake. The message out of South Carolina is that the Clintons overplayed their hand. Can they do humble? That's just one among many fascinating questions that will settle a contest that is far more invigorating and challenging than Democrats had any reason to anticipate.

Reliving History

This article is reprinted from The American Prospect.

Though the event took place more than a week ago, it's worth taking a moment to remark upon the May 27 acquittal of David Rosen, the fund-raiser for Hillary Clinton's 2000 Senate campaign who'd been charged in a New Orleans federal court with hiding about $800,000 worth of costs for a gala Los Angeles event thrown for the then-first lady during her campaign.

Why is it worth remarking upon? For two reasons. First, in the weeks leading up to the jury's decision, one could hear the galloping accelerando of wing-nut anticipation; FOX, for example, did more than a dozen segments devoted mostly or partly to Rosen's fate in the three months leading up to the acquittal.

Walking point on this matter, of course, was Dick Morris. He wrote in his New York Post column nine days before the acquittal that the case against Rosen was "getting stronger, increasing the odds the aide will start cooperating with the government"; about a week earlier, he had appeared on a Hannity & Colmes segment -- titled "Are Hillary's Presidential Chances Over?" -- outright accusing Clinton of having known about the underreporting of the event's costs. I'd love to see the memos that were going around FOX during the trial planning the on-air party in the event of conviction.

But ho! The party was canceled, and, thus, the second reason for pointing out Rosen's acquittal: It's not exactly as if everyone has. FOX, after all the buildup, has mentioned Rosen's acquittal just twice, and both times as quickly and grudgingly as if being forced to report that global warming really did exist. MSNBC, which discussed Rosen five times in the months leading up to the acquittal, has not mentioned him since. (Most of those five were on Chris Matthews' Hardball; gosh, do you think Matthews would have been silent on the matter if the jury had found the other way?) In addition, the viewers of NBC News and the listeners of National Public Radio, if each group relied only on that source for its view of world, would not know of Rosen's acquittal, according to databases. And Matt Drudge, according to his archives, did not mention the acquittal.

Now watch over the course of the next week or two, as Ed Klein, known most recently for sniffing around the tombstone of Carolyn Bessette Kennedy, unveils his new Hillary "book." You'll be reading a lot about Klein's "Pulitzer Prize," which refers to the bauble won by The New York Times Magazine for an article on toxic-shock syndrome that appeared while Klein was indeed its editor. I'd imagine you'll be hearing far less about the plagiarism episode that took place under his tenure, when a young reporter named Christopher Jones fabricated scenes from purported travels with Khmer Rouge guerillas, stealing them from Andre Malraux, of all people (Alexander Cockburn -- at the time, he was a widely read press critic for The Village Voice, probably the most popular columnist in New York -- recognized the lifted passage).

Wanna bet that the cable shows will be a little more enthusiastic about Klein's news than they were about Rosen's?

But enough on that. My subject is not Hillary. My subject is history. The Klein book, like Morris' recent Rewriting History, is produced in the first instance to damage Hillary Clinton in the short term. (Well, actually, point No. 1 is to make money; hurting Clinton is a close second.) But there is another reason these anti-Clinton tomes still appear with regularity, and liberals who criticize the Clintons from the left need to recognize it: The right knows that if its historical interpretation of Clintonism can prevail, liberalism as a project can be killed for decades. That is, if they can convince America over the next few crucial years (crucial because historical interpretations of Clintonism are just really beginning) that the Clinton era was not one of prosperity, peace, and a demonstration that government can deliver common goods but was, instead, one of corruption, turpitude, and a fat and happy people discarding moral values for the sake of higher mutual-fund values, they will have won an extremely important argument with serious long-term ramifications.

The past week should remind us just how seriously those on the right take their historical interpretation -- and the outlandish things they'll say to get their point across. The Wall Street Journal's editorial on the legacy of Mark Felt was a jaw-dropper. What sort of audacity did it take for the Journal, of all organs, to write, "In their zeal to be the next Woodstein, many in the press have developed a 'gotcha' model of reporting that always assumes the worst about public officials"?

The Journal?!? I guess it's not counting Vince Foster as a public official. What shameless, debauched people.

Also came Peggy Noonan on the same subject, directing our attention toward the same Cambodia that once figured into Ed Klein's ignominy: "What Mr. Felt helped produce was a weakened president who was a serious president at a serious time. ... Is it terrible when an American president lies and surrounds himself by dirty tricksters? Yes, it is. How about the butchering of children in the South China Sea. Is that worse? Yes. Infinitely, unforgettably and forever."

La Margaret was trying to imply here that Felt, by ratting out Richard Nixon and assisting in his downfall, is partly responsible for "a cascade of catastrophic events," including the rise of Pol Pot. Actually, she didn't imply it. She said it.

Um, for the record. Nixon, that serious president, quite seriously and secretly bombed Cambodia in direct contravention of international law and the rules of war. This created a massive refugee crisis (in addition to creating a bunch of innocent, dead Cambodians).

The crisis was too much for the government of Lon Nol, a repressive and corrupt potentate whose repression and corruption were very much backed by Nixon and Gerald Ford. The heavy U.S. bombardment of the country, and Lon Nol's collaboration with the United States, sent recruits running into Pol Pot's arms; his forces had grown to number 700,000 men (10 percent of the entire population) by the time of his takeover in 1975. Neither Mark Felt nor Bob Woodward nor Carl Bernstein nor John Sirica had a thing to do with it.

Noonan presumably knows all about this, because the White House for which she scribbled, Ronald Reagan's, backed the Khmer Rouge in the early 1980s, after the regime had completed its murderous rampage and the facts were well-known. This support -- which included voting to seat a Khmer Rouge official as Cambodia's representative at the United Nations -- continued until 1985, when the administration finally changed course. The change came after a House foreign-affairs subcommittee -- in Democratic hands at the time, remember -- pushed for the change and voted to send aid to anti-Khmer Rouge forces.

That is the factual history. Thank goodness they haven't yet managed to rewrite Watergate except in the pages of their own sheets. But they're rewriting the 1990s, and they're working overtime to ensure that they will control how the history of the current administration is written. Young people who don't care about Mark Felt should at least be moved, one hopes, to care that history remains history and is not subverted into propaganda. The future depends on it.

This article is available on The American Prospect website.

Michael Tomasky is the Prospect's executive editor. Copyright © 2005 by The American Prospect, Inc. Preferred Citation: Michael Tomasky, "Reliving History", The American Prospect Online, Jun 6, 2005. This article may not be resold, reprinted, or redistributed for compensation of any kind without prior written permission from the author. Direct questions about permissions to permissions@prospect.org.

In GOP We Trust?

One of the longstanding criticisms of liberalism going back to its heyday involved the extent to which it relied on the courts to gain victories that could not have been achieved legislatively. School desegregation, abortion rights, and less well-remembered anti-miscegenation laws, struck down by the Warren Court in its Loving vs. Virginia decision of 1967, were all judicial triumphs for liberalism, not legislative ones. Advocates of each cause chose to go through the courts specifically because they knew that the odds on achieving these goals through legislation were slim.

The criticism – to which there is a lot of validity – is that getting too far ahead of the popular will, as these and other decisions did, created backlash. And of course it was exactly that backlash, exploited by Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan (and still being exploited today), that contributed to liberalism's decline. Time has long since caught up with the Warren Court, if not on the still divisive issue of abortion, at least on racial questions. No one today would argue that Loving or the more historic Brown v. Board of Education were wrong, indeed, I would argue that it took a lot of courage for the Supreme Court to hand down these decisions. Nevertheless, the criticism has validity because undergirding it is the assumption that legislative action more accurately reflects the people's will.

But that assumption is being mightily challenged in the waning days of the current Congress. Yes, the Republicans won their majority fair and square over the course of the last decade (fair and square except for the possibly illegal Texas redistricting). But they seem awfully less interested in conducting the people's business than their movement's.

Just last week, Republican congressional leaders made three power moves – just because they could. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist threatened to break decades of tradition, which developed when both parties were in power, and employ a rarely used procedure (called "the nuclear option") to prevent Democrats from mounting a filibuster against any judicial nominations. The GOP has played this whole debate with admittedly masterful cynicism, making the Democrats look like "obstructionists" even though nearly 200 of George W. Bush's judicial nominees have been approved and just a handful have been blocked.

Second, they tossed into a spending bill a provision that would greatly expand an existing law by which hospitals and other health-care providers could deny abortion services to women and still receive federal funding. And third, they tried to sneak into the same bill a provision that would have allowed certain committee chairs and their staffs a carte blanche access to the tax returns of individual tax payer. On this last one, some unknown, eagle-eyed, and probably Democratic staffer caught the provision, buried deep in a several-hundred-page omnibus bill. A few Republicans feigned outrage, and a smaller few actually were outraged. But while Republicans promised to back off this proposal, there's little doubt the effort was deliberate. All this of course comes in the wake of the incredible DeLay rule, which again breaks all precedents and would permit House Majority Leader Tom DeLay to retain his post if he's indicted.

Well, they're the majority. The people elected them, and they're merely reflecting the people's will, right?

Uh, no. On each of the three matters in question, it's hardly clear that a majority of Americans back what the GOP tried to do. Americans don't want their elected officials to be prevented from having an honest debate about extremist judges; a majority of Americans still support the right to an abortion, and if their feelings are complicated on this issue, it seems safe to say that a majority would rather not see law on so important and contentious a question changed by sneaking a provision into a bill about something else. And I'm reasonably confident that a decisive majority doesn't want representatives poring over their tax returns and leaking juicy or embarrassing information to the media when the time is right.

So legislation doesn't always reflect the people's will. This has always been true to some extent, and no doubt there were Democratic excesses in earlier times (although it's worth remembering that in the 1960s, there were literally twice as many Democrats as Republicans in both chambers of Congress, so it was far clearer then that the people had decided that they wanted the Democrats to exercise power; also, don't forget that many of the Republicans, from Charles Percy to Everett Dirksen to Jacob Javits, were pro-civil-rights moderates).

But no congressional party has governed like this in modern American history, because today's Republicans are less interested in the will of the people than in awarding their large contributors and pursuing their ideological crusades. They'll use their majority for those purposes far more than they will for thinking seriously about the will of the majority and acting on that. And they'll rub the opposition's face in it to boot, as they did in such tawdry fashion last week when not a single Republican bothered to show up during the floor speeches bidding adieu to Tom Daschle, who gave a quarter-century of his life to the body.

Legislative action confers popular legitimacy that judicial action does not. But that's only true if the legislators are legislating responsibly. I seem to recall the idea being that the legislators were supposed to respond to the people. With this bunch, it's the other way around.

Kerry On Offense

The Democratic National Committee and operative Howard Wolfson certainly took a lot of heat for "Operation Fortunate Son," the tough public-relations campaign they initiated to put the questions about President Bush's National Guard service on the front burner. Wolfson was repeatedly denounced by the usual suspects on cable television, The Weekly Standard criticized the operation (while the "Swift" Boat veterans, of course, raised legitimate questions about John Kerry!?!), and even a lot of Democrats were heard to mutter their discomfort at the party opening up this personal front against the incumbent.

I had my own set of reservations, having to do with whether Bush's National Guard service is really the point anymore. That is, I think this would have been a wonderful line of attack in 2000, when voters didn't know George W. Bush and he had no track record on foreign policy and national security. There seems almost no doubt that if Al Gore's campaign had chosen to question Bush's Guard record aggressively, Bush would not be president today. But that was four years ago. Now, Bush has a record; people have had a chance to watch him for four years and decide whether his actions in office have earned him another trip to the plate. So I didn't consider the National Guard all that relevant, and I'm still not convinced that it is, unless a clear smoking gun can be handed to the media that proves Bush has been lying for years about some aspect of the story.

But lo and behold, it would appear that "Operation Fortunate Son" has worked.

According a recent poll by FOX, Bush's lead over Kerry among veterans stood, on the September 21 and 22 dates on which the poll was conducted, at the single-digit margin of 48 percent to 39 percent. You'll recall the CBS poll in August, at the height of the Swift Boat frenzy, showing that Bush had grabbed a "gaudy," as the sportswriters say, 23-point lead among veterans (matters were about even before the Swiftie blitz). Well, it's been shaved by well more than half, and Bush is below 50 percent, which means that Kerry could fight the veterans' vote back to a draw.

Don't sit by the television waiting for the cable gabbers to make a big hoo-ha of this, as they did the CBS poll showing Bush's huge lead. You and I know it doesn't work that way. But if anything (assuming, of course, that this poll is accurate), this is an even more remarkable development than the Bush surge in August. "Fortunate Son," while it's gotten plenty of press, didn't get anywhere near the play the Swiftie barrage received; beyond that, it ceded much of the narrative space in the "what-they-did-30-years-ago" story line to the Dan Rather/documents controversy.

It proves that attacks work. There's no point in being self-righteous about them. There is, of course, an important distinction to be made between attacks that have at least some relationship to the factual record and attacks that are outright fabrication and slander. But one can abhor the latter without opposing attack politics in general. Any pursuit of victory involves exploitation of the opposition's weaknesses, and why Democrats chose to strip themselves of this weapon during their convention has always mystified me. Kerry, it seems, has figured out what a silly mistake that was and has delivered a series of speeches recently hitting Bush pretty hard on foreign policy.

Now, beginning with this Thursday's debate, Kerry should strike right at the dark heart of Bush's national-security failures. Where, he should ask, is Osama bin Laden? We sent about 12,000 troops to Afghanistan. We removed the Taliban, but the man who orchestrated the Sept. 11 attacks and then delivered to the world a videotape gloating about them slipped away. Then – boom – we sent 130,000 troops to Iraq, which was somehow more important than getting the man who killed 2,700 Americans. bin Laden still circulates.

Can you imagine the furor from the Limbaugh/FOX News corner if a President Gore hadn't captured the 9-11 malefactor by now (and had diverted resources to go after someone else instead? And how about if – remember this one? – anthrax packets had been sent to congressional Republican leaders and Gore's Justice Department hadn't yet nabbed a culprit?)? There should be blind outrage afoot in this country that bin Laden hasn't been captured or killed. And Kerry should stoke it.

I can already hear the nervous Democratic operatives: Ooh, that's too risky. What if we capture bin Laden between now and November 2? The argument is cut out from underneath Kerry. Well, that's inarguable. But guess what? If we capture bin Laden between now and election day, Bush wins anyway, no matter how you slice it and no matter what Kerry did or did not say. So the risk involved in talking directly and aggressively about bin Laden – Kerry began to do so at Temple University last Friday, but the invocations weren't at the center of that speech – is in fact rather minimal. From the Kerry campaign's point of view, the possible bad political outcome (Bush captures bin Laden, wins election) would have happened anyway, while the possible good political outcome (nation finally focuses on why this man is still at large, Bush put on defensive) will come only if Kerry starts asking the question.

"Operation Fortunate Son" showed that answering attacks and attacking back produces results. In the campaign's remaining weeks, Kerry should apply that lesson to the Bush failure that is, on a list that offers hefty competition, clearly the most morally scandalous.

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