Historians William M. LeoGrande and Peter Kornbluh actually emphasized in their book, “Back Channel to Cuba”, that since the beginning of the Cuban Revolution, many U.S. presidents attempted to normalize relations with Cuba, from John F. Kennedy's offering of an olive branch to Fidel Castro after the missile crisis, to Henry Kissinger's top secret quest for normalization.
But now, in the context of a loss of U.S. hegemony in the region, the Cuban issue became more pregnant. As August highlighted, “The official narrative totally aligned with the real goal: Obama himself admitted in December 2014 that the blockade policy had failed and this failure required a change in tactics.”
The U.S. long-term strategy remains regime change in Cuba, he added. Obama was elected with the support of the vast majority of the country's ruling sectors, who funded his 2008 and 2012 electoral campaigns, in order “to give a new face to U.S. imperialism,” and alleviate the anti-U.S. animosity fomented during the Bush era, August stated.
Meanwhile, the Cuban market – representing about 11 million people – was slipping out of the U.S. business sector's hands, while their European, Chinese, Brazilian and Venezuelan competitors have been able to invest in Cuban infrastructures, refineries, among other things.
Therefore, this sector lobbied more and more in order to modify the traditional political stance on Cuba. “They are less sensitive to the political aspect of the relationship with the communist regime, and fully support Obama's initiative to normalize relations,” explained Habel.
As Washington realized that the “two-track policy” of "carrot and stick" did not pay off, she added, they decided to remove the stick, while keeping the carrot: the “soft-power” via the flow of dollars, investments, consumer goods, tourism and culture.
US More Open to Negotiating with Raul Castro
Both countries reached a relatively concomitant political cycle. Raul Castro formally took office in 2008, one year before Democrat presidential candidate Obama was elected in the United States. Although Fidel Castro, the historical leader, always affirmed he was opened to negotiations as long as Cuban sovereignty was respected, the U.S. was more inflexible with him.
The diplomatic shift also came at a time when foreign investment was more aligned with Cuba's economic policies, as the country initiated a new round of relative privatization of the Cuban economy. The church also played a crucial role, according to Habel, at least the Cuban Catholic Church. Cuban Cardinal Ortega advocated for national reconciliation for a long time, preparing the ground work for the visit of the first Latin American pope in 2013.
Pope Francis directly intervened as a mediator. Part of the preliminary talks took place at the Vatican, said Habel. Both analysts agreed that another important factor was the evolution of the Cuban diaspora living in the U.S., especially in the state of Florida. While the first wave of emigrants belonged to the Cuban intelligentsia and former dictator Battista's inner circles, after the fall of the Soviet Union, Cubans emigrated for economic rather than political reasons, seeking better opportunities. They are more open to renewing relations with Cuba as a communist regime.
Changing Views of Cuban-Americans
The younger generation of Cubans living in the U.S. were born in the United States, they have relatives in Cuba, and therefore support Obama's shift because they wish to visit them or send them money. Republican candidate Marco Rubio failed to understand this “generational effect,” said August, as the candidate had to end is campaign after losing his home state of Florida in the Republican caucus this week, with a virulent anti-Castro program. Now the Latino minority living in Florida votes mostly for the Democratic Party, added Habel. However, in Habel's opinion, the normalization of diplomatic relations between both countries could also have, in the long run, a devastating effect on the small island, with the flow of U.S. dollars, investments, tourism and consumer goods. Cuba has vowed, however, that its soveregnty will stay intact no matter what designs the U.S. may have.
Watch: Obama in Cuba: "It is wonderful to be here"
