WASHINGTON — One of the things Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, is best known for among his congressional peers is the hundreds of millions of dollars he’s raised, funneling cash to fellow Senate Republicans from the vast donor network he’s built over decades as a mainstay of the Texas GOP.

But don’t expect him to raise money for Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race.

Instead, Cornyn said he plans to use his considerable fundraising prowess to help colleagues elsewhere.

“What I'm doing is I'm raising money to help in places like New Hampshire and Michigan and Alaska, and some of these other states where I think we’ve got close races,” Cornyn said in an interview with The Texas Tribune last week.

Texas can be a “black hole when it comes to campaign cash”, Cornyn said, noting his money will go further in other competitive states. And it’s on Paxton and his allies now, he said, to broaden his coalition, including to donors.

A person close to Paxton, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the attorney general has pursued a full court press of Cornyn's largest donors.

Cornyn said he “remain[s] a good Republican” who wants to see the GOP maintain control of the Senate, and he opposes Democrat James Talarico’s policies. But his assessment of his former opponent — whom he spent months bashing on the campaign trail during the primary — has not changed much over the three months since the general election began.

“Paxton’s a poor campaigner,” Cornyn said. “He’s lazy and doesn’t raise money. And he basically is not offering a very compelling case for his election. He’s making this harder than it needs to be. But so be it — we are where we are.”

Paxton did not respond to a request for comment on Cornyn’s stance.

Cornyn made the case throughout the primary that he feared Paxton would jeopardize the era of Republican dominance in Texas politics — a warning which was not heeded by the primary runoff voters, who selected Paxton as their nominee by a wide margin.

He still sees trouble. And free from the political pressures of running for reelection for the first time in decades, Cornyn’s not been shy about sharing his view.

“This is unfortunately shaping up to be a close and I hope not disastrous election,” Cornyn said. “But it ain’t looking good right now.”

Polling this summer has shown a tight race between Paxton and Talarico, with numerous surveys showing Talarico ahead, though within the margin of error — nonetheless a striking trend in a state no Democrat has won in over 30 years.

Paxton won the nomination in March despite being outraised and outspent by Cornyn and his allies. His fundraising gap with Talarico is even starker — the Democrat raised $30 million in the second quarter of 2026 to Paxton’s $9 million, and has thus far Talarico has outspent Paxton in direct advertising dollars by a factor of nearly 200-to-1.

Many of Cornyn’s top donors, longtime givers in Texas GOP circles, have thus far sat out the Senate race since the runoff. Cornyn suggested the president, whose main super PAC is sitting on over $400 million, could take financial responsibility for Paxton’s campaign.

“He could write a check if he wanted Paxton to be the nominee, with all his wrinkles and warts — then it’s a simple solution to that,” Cornyn said.

Trump was in Houston Thursday to fundraise for Paxton as part of a Republican National Committee fundraiser.

And resources are en route for Paxton. The main super PAC supporting him, Lone Star Liberty PAC, placed its first general election broadcast ad buy this week, and a handful of other GOP groups have already begun spending on his behalf, with more expected come September.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which was all in for Cornyn during the primary before backing Paxton after the attorney general won the primary, expressed confidence in its candidate’s fundraising and campaign.

“Ken Paxton is raising record-breaking resources, building impressive grassroots support, and working in lockstep with President Trump to execute a winning campaign plan that will keep Texas red and ensure James Talarico doesn't come anywhere close to the U.S. Senate,” said NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell.

The primary between Cornyn and Paxton was as ugly as it was expensive. While Cornyn finished in first place narrowly in the initial March contest, Paxton surged ahead with a smaller electorate in May, winning by 28 percentage points.

Part of Paxton’s task during the general election campaign is to unite the party after the fractious primary, in which voters saw tens of millions of dollars worth of attacks against him.

Cornyn still received over 500,000 votes in the runoff, and Paxton took a gracious posture that night, thanking the senator for his service and saying he wanted to earn the support of his voters and unite the party.

The attorney general told Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick on his podcast in June that he would love Cornyn’s help and that he would have voted for Cornyn “10 times” before Talarico.

But Cornyn is worried that there has not been enough outreach toward his supporters to make them feel they are still welcome in the Republican tent.

“I can’t tell that any of the supporters of Paxton have done diddly squat to reach out to what I would call mainstream traditional Republicans in Texas,” Cornyn said.

The person close to Paxton said the attorney general has reached out to Cornyn multiple times, but has been met with silence.

In elevating Paxton over Cornyn with his endorsement, Trump jettisoned an experienced Senate operator with seven months of his term still ahead of him. Over the first three, the administration has had several occasions to feel the repercussions.

Cornyn has wielded the power of his vote to compel the administration to commit to funding a global HIV prevention program, move more quickly on border reimbursement and, most notably, get written modifications to a controversial “anti-weaponization” fund at the Department of Justice before voting to move Attorney General Todd Blanche’s nomination forward.

The senator also spoke out in August at the arrival of machinery in Big Bend National Park asking the Department of Homeland Security to halt construction until it had met with stakeholders on the ground — a request it ended up honoring.

The Senate GOP will return to Washington in September aiming to protect vulnerable incumbents and amidst tensions with an administration that Cornyn said “can be very vindictive”.

Free from political repercussions, Cornyn said he’ll continue to evaluate topics as they arise.

“I’ve made very clear to the administration, I don’t intend to just be a thorn in their side for the sake of being a thorn in their side,” Cornyn said. “But basically, the president has relieved me of any political concerns [and] considerations…so I’m just making these calls on a case-by-case basis where I think these are deserving issues.”

This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.

by Gabby Birenbaum, The Texas Tribune

June 8, 2026

WASHINGTON — One of the lawyers who defended Attorney General Ken Paxton during his three-year-old impeachment trial endorsed Democrat James Talarico Monday in Texas’ U.S. Senate race.

Dan Cogdell, a veteran Houston attorney who represented Paxton in his long-running felony securities fraud case and his 2023 impeachment, announced his support for Talarico in an interview with the attorney general’s Democratic opponent on the lawyer’s podcast.

“I defended Ken Paxton for years in the impeachment trial and in state criminal cases,” Cogdell said on his podcast. “But in my view, respectfully, I think Ken has lost sight of his core mission, which is to represent the people of Texas. And unlike Ken, I believe to my core, James, that you believe in unity over division and that you know how to assemble not only Democrats, but independents and Republicans — and we need that right now.”

The news was first reported by NOTUS.

Well-known in Texas courtrooms, Cogdell helped steer Paxton through legal battles for nearly a decade. The attorney general first hired him in 2015 after he was indicted for securities fraud, a case that went on until 2024, when prosecutors dropped the charges in exchange for Paxton taking legal ethics courses and paying six figures in restitution. And he served on Paxton’s defense team in his 2023 impeachment trial, which ended in an acquittal by the Republican-controlled Texas Senate.

Cogdell said on his podcast that unity in politics is needed today more than at any point in his lifetime, and that he believed Talarico could achieve it.

In a statement, Talarico said he was grateful for Cogdell’s support and that it was evidence of the broad coalition he wants to build.

“If you voted for John Cornyn, you have a place in this campaign,” Talarico said, reprising his message the night Paxton locked up the nomination. “If you’re a Republican tired of the corruption you’re seeing in government, you have a place in this campaign. Even if you’re Ken Paxton’s impeachment lawyer, you have a place in this campaign. We are building a people-powered movement that welcomes Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike.”

Talarico is hoping to be the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Texas in over 30 years — a difficult task that the party is nonetheless enthused about because they see Paxton, given his legal and ethical baggage, as a uniquely compromised candidate.

Paxton defeated U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, a 24-year incumbent, in a primary runoff last month, after a brutal campaign in which about $130 million was spent, mostly to boost Cornyn and bash the attorney general. But Paxton has strong support among the Republican grassroots, which powered him to a landslide victory in the runoff.

Polling has indicated a close race between Paxton and Talarico, with a slew of statewide surveys showing the Democrat with a narrow lead — a rare sight.

The Paxton campaign dismissed Cogdell’s endorsement as a predictable development.

“Dan is a Democrat and voted in the Democratic primary in 2024,” an aide close to Paxton told the Tribune. “Why is anyone shocked?”

Harris County vote rosters from 2024 confirm Cogdell voted in the Democratic primary that year.

The longtime trial lawyer has donated to both Paxton and Talarico this cycle. He gave $6,500 to Paxton’s Senate campaign nearly a year ago, then donated $1,000 to Talarico’s campaign in March, after he won the Democratic primary.

Cogdell’s endorsement of Talarico is not the first time his name has come up in the U.S. Senate race. The Cornyn campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which backed Cornyn, attacked Paxton over his ties to Cogdell, noting the Houston attorney’s past anti-Trump comments and that he represents the East Plano Islamic Center, or EPIC City, in legal proceedings. The housing development has come under attack from members of the Texas GOP, including both Cornyn and Paxton, during the campaign amid a broader surge in anti-Islam rhetoric on the right.

In a since-deleted ad and social media posts from the primary, the NRSC bashed Cogdell as a “Trump-hating Democrat” and attacked Paxton for his affiliation with him.

Rep. Mitch Little, R-Lewisville, who also served on Paxton’s defense team before becoming a state representative, said Cogdell is a Democrat.

“I love Dan, but he is a Democrat, and he doesn’t vote very much,” Little said. “This impeachment defense lawyer is 100% behind Ken Paxton.”

This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.

The hardline House Freedom Caucus is poised to swell its ranks among Texas members after a successful primary season in which two challengers backed by the group’s political arm won their primaries and a third candidate nearly won outright in a nine-way open race.

Tuesday was an ascendant night for the conservative group — often a thorn in the side of House GOP leadership — and its imprint on Texas’ congressional delegation. The Freedom Caucus could end up doubling the number of Texans on its roster come next Congress, pushing the state’s delegation further to the right and adding reinforcements who appear willing to follow the group’s obstructionist playbook.

Known for its conservative absolutist approach and willingness to defy GOP leaders, the Freedom Caucus encompasses the most right-wing members of the House, typically those who are the loudest advocates for cutting spending and restricting immigration. The group, which currently numbers 30 members, has demonstrated a willingness to take stands by using procedural maneuvers to tank, or at least hold up, Republican-led bills.

Currently, the Freedom Caucus counts four Texans among its ranks. The bloc is set to lose one of its most outspoken members in Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin, who amassed considerable power as a member of the House Rules Committee but is forsaking reelection to run for Texas attorney general.

But it stands to gain the membership of state Rep. Steve Toth, who defeated Atascosita Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a Freedom Caucus critic. Toth was backed by Freedom Caucus Fund, a political group that brands itself as “the only organization solely dedicated to defending and growing the House Freedom Caucus.” The Conroe Republican, who was a member of the Texas House Freedom Caucus in the Legislature, said he plans to join the U.S. House version.

"I would like to join the Freedom Caucus in D.C., absolutely,” Toth said. “I'm going to be a strong voice. There's wisdom in knowing when you've got to compromise, but there's wisdom in knowing when to stand and fight.”

And two other Freedom Caucus Fund endorsed candidates — gun rights activist and YouTuber Brandon Herrera and conservative attorney Jace Yarbrough — finished first in their respective primaries while advancing to runoffs.

But Herrera will be the Republican nominee in his district after his would-be runoff opponent, Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-San Antonio, dropped out of the race Thursday night. Gonzales’ exit came after the revelation that he had an affair with a staffer who died by suicide last year.

Taken together, Tuesday was a “big night for Freedom Caucus Fund candidates,” said Allison Weisenberger, the executive director of the Freedom Caucus Fund, in a statement to The Texas Tribune.

Taking out Crenshaw was an especially notable coup for the group, given his ongoing feud with Freedom Caucus members. In 2021, Crenshaw said the Republican Party had “grifters in our midst” and noted that then-Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a chief Trump critic on the right, voted in favor of the Trump agenda more frequently than the Freedom Caucus.

He later said that GOP members who in 2023 voted against California Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s speakership — many of whom were members of the House Freedom Caucus — were “terrorists”, though he apologized for doing so.

Weisenberger cast the defeat of Crenshaw — who she labeled a “Republican in Name Only” — as a repudiation of that message.

“Republican voters know the Freedom Caucus to be the conservative conscience of Congress, always fighting to pass President Trump's America First agenda,” Weisenberger said. “On Tuesday, Dan Crenshaw, who called the House Freedom Caucus 'terrorists,' found out the final consequence for being a RINO — defeat at the hands of a Freedom Caucus Fund-endorsed candidate.”

The fourth-term congressman, of course, sees Toth’s win differently. He faulted poor turnout and false attacks on him as the main culprits behind his loss.

Crenshaw said he is worried that Toth’s embrace of obstructionist tactics will result in fewer federal dollars for the Houston-area district. He predicted Toth will oppose funding packages in Congress, a common tactic for Freedom Caucus members upset by spending levels.

“Steve Toth will not get them flood mitigation funding,” Crenshaw said. “He’ll vote against every appropriations bill. And when you’re like that, you don’t get anything for your district. Very similar to his record in the state House.”

The ideological gulf is even wider between Herrera and Gonzales, a more moderate Republican who is a member of the most centrist of the party’s ideological factions, the bipartisan Problem Solvers’ Caucus. Gonzales, like Crenshaw, was not shy about expressing his distaste for some members of the House Freedom Caucus, publicly blasting some of his colleagues as “scumbags” and klansmen at one point. He also spoke out against a hardline immigration bill filed by Roy a few years ago, saying it would have the “anti-American” and “not Christian” effect of, in practice, ending asylum.

Yarbrough, running in a North Texas seat Republicans redrew in a round of mid-decade redistricting to benefit their party, finished far ahead of the field in his primary and nearly reached the 50% threshold to win outright.

In addition, the three incumbent Texan members of the Freedom Caucus who are running for reelection — Reps. Michael Cloud, Brandon Gill and Keith Self — all easily won their primaries.

“We look forward to new members of the Texas delegation in the 120th Congress joining the House Freedom Caucus to fight for conservative American principles and help advance the President’s agenda,” Rep. Andy Harris, a Maryland Republican who chairs the Freedom Caucus, said in a statement.

Primary losses, redistricting and retirements are all set to reshape the Texas delegation next year, with a historic level of turnover coming on the Republican side in particular. The members leaving run the ideological gamut, but their replacements — political newcomers forged in the MAGA-fied primaries that dominate Texas Republican politics today — will likely hew further to the right.

Some conservatives are not initially endorsed by the Freedom Caucus Fund but end up joining the group once in Congress — Self among them. With so many new faces coming to the delegation, the Freedom Caucus’ ranks could end up growing beyond their endorsed candidates.

Jon Bonck, a mortgage broker and Baptist deacon who earned the early endorsement of Sen. Ted Cruz, is seen as a potential ally, according to a source familiar with the caucus. But the fund did not endorse him or spend any money on his behalf.

Bonck finished first in the open primary for Texas’ 38th Congressional District, which includes Houston’s Energy Corridor and the northwest suburbs of Harris County; he narrowly missed out on an outright win and heads into the runoff as the favorite over an opponent, Shelly deZevallos, who trailed him by 28 points, according to unofficial results. Bonck is endorsed by several House Freedom Caucus members, including Gill and founding chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

One side effect of the hard right’s success in primaries — and the retirements of members — is the wipeout of Texas Republicans who voted to certify the 2020 presidential election.

In 2021, in the hours after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol that year, the House voted to certify Joe Biden’s victory over the objections of dozens of Republicans. Of the then-23 House Republicans from Texas, 16 voted against certifying the election results in Pennsylvania. (Fifteen of the 16 — all but Rep. Beth Van Duyne, R-Irving — voted against certifying Arizona’s electoral votes as well.)

Two Republicans, Reps. Kevin Brady and Kay Granger — both retired now — had COVID-19 and missed the vote.

Crenshaw and Gonzales were among the five Republicans who voted to certify. Of the others, Rep. Van Taylor has since retired, while Roy and Rep. Michael McCaul are leaving at the end of their current terms.

This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.

WASHINGTON — Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-San Antonio, dropped out of his primary runoff Thursday, heeding calls from House Speaker Mike Johnson and other GOP members to end his reelection bid amid revelations that he had an affair with an aide who died by suicide.

“After deep reflection and with the support of my loving family, I have decided not to seek re-election while serving out the rest of this Congress with the same commitment I've always had to my district,” Gonzales said in a statement posted on social media. “Through the rest of my term, I will continue fighting for my constituents, for whom I am eternally grateful.”

The third-term congressman admitted the affair on Wednesday, the day after he finished second to challenger Brandon Herrera in the Republican primary for Texas’ 23rd Congressional District. Gonzales initially denied rumors of the affair, and resisted calls to drop out or resign after the San Antonio Express-News published a text in which the aide acknowledged the affair. Explicit texts between Gonzales and his then-aide came to light soon after, showing the congressman asking for a “sexy pic” and persisting despite her assertion he had gone “too far.”

The House Ethics Committee is investigating whether Gonzales “engaged in sexual misconduct towards an individual employed in his office” and “discriminated unfairly by dispensing special favors or privileges.”

Gonzales’ departure from the runoff means Herrera, a gun rights activist and YouTuber challenging the more moderate incumbent from his right, will be the Republican nominee in the sprawling border district. Herrera ran against Gonzales in 2024, forcing a runoff that he lost by less than 400 votes.

This time, Herrera went into the runoff in first place. While Gonzales received more early and absentee votes, according to unofficial returns, Herrera outperformed Gonzales on election day, suggesting that news of the scandal was resonating with voters.

A Navy veteran from San Antonio, Gonzales was first elected to the House in 2020 in a close race against now-San Antonio Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones. While a reliable conservative, Gonzales is regarded as the most moderate Republican member of the Texas delegation, having voted to certify the 2020 election, establish a January 6 Commission and codify federal recognition of same-sex and interracial marriage.

Gonzales also voted for a bipartisan gun safety bill in the wake of the 2022 school shooting in Uvalde, which he represents; that vote has been a flashpoint in each of the last two primaries, with Herrera criticizing the vote and vowing to take a hard line on preserving gun rights if elected.

He had been an outspoken voice in the Republican conference on border security and immigration, representing a significant swath of the border. He helped organize support for the successful push to impeach former Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas during the Biden administration.

But he has at times cautioned the Trump administration to keep its deportation focus on hardened criminals. In 2024, he referred to some of his fellow Republicans as “scumbags” and klansmen. And he’s sparred with some of the furthest-right members of the conference, including Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin, over hardline immigration proposals.

Gonzales initially had the support of House GOP leadership in his reelection bid, as well as that of President Donald Trump, whose endorsement he did not have in 2024. But Johnson, R-Louisiana, and other high-ranking House Republicans, including National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Richard Hudson, called on Gonzales to withdraw from the runoff Thursday.

Trump has not weighed in on the 23rd District primary since news of the scandal broke. He congratulated Gonzales during a rally in Corpus Christi days before the primary — without specifying what he was congratulating him about — and omitted Gonzales when he reposted all of his endorsements in Texas’s congressional primaries that same day.

Numerous members of the Texas delegation had called on Gonzales to drop out of his race, including GOP Reps. Monica De La Cruz, Brandon Gill and Chip Roy. Neighboring Rep. Veronica Escobar, an El Paso Democrat, had called on Gonzales to resign.

But Gonzales has said he intends to stay in Congress, arguing that his vote is too important to the work of the Republican majority, and Trump’s agenda, to lose. Republicans currently maintain a 218-214 majority in the U.S. House, meaning they can only afford to lose one Republican on any given party-line vote with full attendance.

De La Cruz has also called on Gonzales to step down from his chairmanship role of the Congressional Hispanic Conference, of which they are both members.

The situation has a recent analogue in Texas political history. In 2022, then-Rep. Van Taylor, R-Plano, was headed to a runoff after finishing with 49% of the vote in his primary. But the next day, he withdrew from the race, admitting to an affair that had been revealed in Breitbart News the day before the primary. Second-place finisher Keith Self became the nominee and has represented the district since 2023.

Democrats have been eyeing the 23rd District, which is majority-Hispanic and voted for Trump by a 15-point margin in 2024, especially as the scandal around Gonzales has intensified. But they see an opportunity to pick up the seat regardless, as signs abound of Latino voters souring on Trump and the Republican Party after shifting dramatically to the right in 2024.

Herrera, backed by the hard-right House Freedom Caucus’ political arm, has a history of controversial behavior and edgy humor. In 2024, Jewish Insider reported that he had included Nazi imagery, songs and jokes on his YouTube channel. And the outlet also reported he was a member of the Sons of Confederate Veterans, which promotes Lost Cause ideology.

Herrera has said it is “obvious” he is not a neo-Nazi, while Gonzales has referred to him as a “known neo-Nazi.”

This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.

Depending on who you asked, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s decision this week to run for Senate meant one of two things.

In the eyes of some pundits and politicos, the Dallas Democrat’s nomination would spell doom for her party’s chances of winning a statewide race for the first time in over three decades. To others, she is a fighter and gifted communicator whose expand-the-electorate strategy is worth trying in a state where Democrats of all stripes and styles have failed.

In interviews with over a dozen Texas Democratic operatives, perspectives on Crockett’s strengths and liabilities — and how they would play in a general election — were varied. Crockett has said she can defeat whoever emerges from the GOP Senate primary by speaking to infrequent voters and motivating them to turn out for her. Some said her authentic communication style and well-established reputation for going toe-to-toe with Republicans can help do exactly that.

But others say she would need to attract voters who cast their ballots for President Donald Trump, in a state the president carried last November by nearly 14 percentage points — a gap that some argue cannot be bridged by high Democratic turnout alone, and that Crockett is too polarizing to achieve.

Crockett, a second-term congresswoman who inspires both fierce fandom and deep disdain, has staked her political career on her statewide viability. On Monday, the last day for candidates to file for the 2026 ballot, she officially joined the U.S. Senate primary setting up a marquee battle March 3 against state Rep. James Talarico, an Austin Democrat and progressive aspiring Presbyterian minister who, like Crockett, has assembled an impressive social media following and fundraising apparatus of his own.

At stake is not just the U.S. Senate race, but competitive seats further down the ballot for the U.S. House and the state Legislature. Though Texas Democrats are still smarting from another round of blowout defeats last year, 2026 marks the first midterm with Trump in the White House since 2018, when Beto O’Rourke’s narrow Senate loss generated a wave of down-ballot wins for Democrats.

Fiery, quick-witted and adept at generating viral moments, Crockett is well-known to the Democratic base in Texas and around the country. As Democrats have struggled with unscripted forums, finding their digital voice and authentic presentation, Crockett, a frequent presence on cable television and in long-form interviews, is regarded among the base as an invigorating and clear communicator, never robotic or boring. Operatives agree she will be a strong fundraiser and a formidable primary candidate. And her backers argue her status as a household name — including in the White House — is a strength.

“Jasmine Crockett is the most talked about member of the United States Congress, House or Senate,” Harris County Commissioner Rodney Ellis, a bastion of Houston politics, said at Crockett’s launch event. “And why are they talking about her? Because she talks back. She will expand our base. She’s a great communicator. She has shown that she can raise money.”

But critics say that while Crockett may drive disengaged Democrats to the polls, she will also inspire independents and Republicans to come out against her — a phenomenon she can ill afford in a red state. They worry that 2026 — a Trump midterm year, with a hotly contested Republican primary that will leave the eventual GOP nominee bruised and battered — is too promising an opportunity to run a candidate known for clapping back against members of the dominant party in the state.

Nancy Zdunkewicz, an Austin-based Democratic pollster unaffiliated with either campaign, said Crockett is well-known to Republican voters, many of whom have negative views of her. A successful candidate will motivate the base, persuade swing voters and demoralize Republicans, Zdunkewicz said. On the last point, she worries Crockett would have the opposite effect.

“My concern with her is that, in a year where we’re already anticipating that there’s going to be greater Democratic turnout and enthusiasm in response to this administration, as we saw in 2018 … are we giving [Republicans] an incentive to turn out, where they otherwise would’ve stayed home?” Zdunkewicz said.

Monique Alcala, a former executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, also voiced concerns about Crockett’s electability and whether she can turn out or flip enough infrequent voters needed to win statewide. Alcala said she worries that Crockett’s brand of politics — and her limited record of legislative accomplishments — may not activate those populations.

“I don't think that they're looking for somebody that is going to be a firebrand,” Alcala said. “I think that they're looking for somebody that's going to get things done. And I think that Crockett has not made that a priority of hers in Congress.”

Crockett has said she is running because she believes the opposite — that she can turn out infrequent voters and expand the electorate. She has said her internal polling reflects that belief — and insisted for weeks that she would only run statewide if the data showed a path to victory — but she has not shared any of those numbers publicly. Her campaign wants a high-turnout election, believing it would benefit her.

Asked in a Monday night CNN interview how she planned to attract Trump voters, Crockett said she planned to focus her message on affordability, and added, “I don't know that we'll necessarily convert all of Trump’s supporters. That's not our goal."

Already, Republicans — who have made no secret that they would prefer to face her over Talarico — are tying her to down-ballot Democrats running in some of the most competitive seats in the country. Sen. John Cornyn, the Texas Republican who would face Crockett in November if he survives his primary, told Semafor her bid is a “gift.” One Republican operative told The Texas Tribune that the mood yesterday in the GOP was on par with “Christmas morning.”

Crockett’s previous comments about key voting blocs in Texas will likely take center stage in Republican advertising, such as when she described some Latino voters’ anti-immigrant attitudes as a “slave mentality” in an interview with Vanity Fair a year ago. And she once criticized the right as a “violent group” that “attract[s] violent actors”.

But Crockett has remained unfazed by the doubters.

“We’re used to [people] telling us what I can’t do,” Crockett said at her campaign kickoff event Monday. “But they have no idea what Crockett’s crew will do. And so I just want to be clear for all the haters in the back, listen up real loud: We’re gonna get this thing done.”

Turnout vs. persuasion

The graveyard of failed Texas Democrats from the last 30 years is littered with statewide candidates of all stripes — moderates, progressives, big fundraisers, national figures, military and law enforcement veterans, profane celebrities, lawyers, business owners and those of all race and ethnicity.

None have won.

Numerous operatives said a successful statewide Texas race requires both turning out as many Democratic voters as possible — including infrequent voters — and persuading swing voters. Some think Crockett can do both; others concede she may juice turnout but that she may struggle with independents and Trump voters.

Katherine Fischer, director of the Democratic-aligned Texas Majority PAC, said she agrees that Crockett will be able to turn out voters who have rarely or never cast a ballot. But, she added, doing so is a heavy lift and can only succeed if the candidate also wins over swing voters.

“I believe that she will really motivate Democrats to turn out and vote,” Fischer said. “Will she have persuasive capabilities? We'll have to see.”

Rebecca Marques, who has worked in Texas Democratic politics for years, including on O’Rourke’s 2022 gubernatorial bid, said she believes in Crockett’s campaign because the Dallas Democrat is stylistically attractive to infrequent Democratic voters and swing voters, many of whom are younger, Latino or Asian. Crockett, she said, comes off as a fighter who speaks to people’s frustrations, like O’Rourke and, paradoxically, Trump.

“I actually think her arguments and the way she speaks is closer [to those voters],” Marques said. “She has an easier time bridging how she campaigns and speaks to that unlikely voter base and the swing voters we think we could peel off in a general — Latinos, Asians, maybe poor young white folks — that are not ideologically in one camp or another, and are most focused on their economic ability.”

Marques also said she does not think Crockett would uniquely whip up Republican turnout if she wins the nomination. She believes the right is already fired up because of their dramatic Republican primary and the possibility that Attorney General Ken Paxton — a GOP firebrand who is popular among the base and hopes to unseat Cornyn in March — may be the nominee.

Some strategists dismissed Crockett’s chances outright, noting that she never needed crossover appeal with Republicans to win her solidly Democratic districts in the Texas House and Congress. Talarico, by contrast, flipped a state House seat in 2018 before switching to a safer blue seat in Austin for the 2022 cycle after his district was made redder through redistricting.

“This is not a base mobilization election — Trump carried Texas by 14 points — it’s about who can create a big enough coalition to win,” Eric Koch, a Democratic strategist who has done campaign work in Texas, said via text. “Talarico can do that, Crockett can’t.”

Matt Angle, a longtime Texas Democratic operative and founder of the Lone Star Project, said Crockett’s biggest asset is her ability to communicate effectively with voters, while her biggest challenge will be coming across as a Texas Democrat rather than a national Democrat, given her massive profile.

“She unquestionably has communication skills and excites our base in a way that’s absolutely necessary,” Angle said. “The challenge for her is to build beyond that. Can she reach out to some people who have dismissed Democrats, either because they just don’t think they’re going to win, or because they don’t think they talk to them about the right issues?”

Down-ballot races

The Democrat who came closest to winning a statewide race in Texas this century was O’Rourke, who lost by less than 3 percentage points in 2018, reviving dormant Democratic dreams of a blue Texas.

Though O’Rourke lost, one of his lasting legacies is the array of down-ballot races Democrats won that cycle, in part by relying on the high turnout he generated through motivating infrequent voters. Riding the blue wave, Democrats flipped two U.S. House seats, two Texas Senate seats and 12 state House seats.

Whoever emerges as next year’s Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate will carry the same responsibility of helping down-ballot Democrats in tough races — or, at the very least, not harming their prospects.

Republicans see Crockett as a useful liability to be pinned on Democrats whose seats they are targeting in 2026, including the two South Texas congressional districts represented by U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo and Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen. Democrats, meanwhile, are targeting U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Edinburg, who also represents the region, making the southern part of the state a critical battleground for control of the House.

The National Republican Campaign Committee — the House GOP’s campaign arm — has already sought to tie Gonzalez to Crockett, as has one of his prospective GOP opponents, Eric Flores. Gonzalez is running for reelection to a district that Trump would have carried by 10 points, after Republicans in the state Legislature redrew the boundaries over the summer to be more favorable for the GOP.

“Radical Jasmine Crockett is electoral kryptonite and now vulnerable Texas Democrats are stuck sharing a ticket with her,” NRCC spokesperson Reilly Richardson said. “Whether they cave and endorse her before the primary or wait until she’s officially coronated as Democrats’ next statewide loser, her toxic brand will hurt Texas Democrats down the ballot next year.”

The NRCC’s internal polling, shared with The Texas Tribune, found that Crockett’s image was underwater in a summer survey of 50 battleground districts across the country, though the group did not disclose her exact margin. Her name identification was 75%.

Marques said Crockett was a frequently requested surrogate for South Texas stops on O’Rourke’s 2022 campaign. Rather than being a drag, she believes Crockett can help juice turnout, allowing vulnerable Democrats to take advantage of that while maintaining distinct political brands.

Cameron County Democratic Chair Jared Hockema runs the local party in a Rio Grande Valley county that voted for Trump last year, shifting 10 percentage points to the right and voting for a Republican presidential nominee for only the third time since 1980. Hockema said he does not worry about negative down-ballot impact from either Senate nominee; if anything, he said the primary will excite people.

“I never subscribed to the idea that you’ve got to be careful what you talk about,” Hockema said. “That's why we're in the place we are. We need to be courageous to talk about the issues that matter to people. And both of those folks do that.”

This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.