COLUMBIA — Legislation touted by GOP leaders as making South Carolina’s tax code appear more competitive would require most tax filers to pay more initially, according to an analysis by state fiscal experts.

Collapsing South Carolina’s tax brackets into a single flat tax rate of 3.99% in 2026 would reduce state revenues by $216.6 million overall.

But that’s done by broadening and shifting the tax burden: 19.4% of filers would owe less in spring 2027, while a whopping 59.4% of filers would owe more; 21.2% would experience no change, according to the fiscal impact report by the state Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office released ahead of Tuesday’s first hearing on the bill.

The analysis cautions against generalizing: “The impact on individual taxpayers varies widely within each range depending on the specific tax situation of each tax filer,” reads the seven-page summary signed by the office’s director, Frank Rainwater.

Still, the report provides hard estimates on how many South Carolina taxpayers will pay more versus less — and the extent of the swings per taxpayers’ income levels after all applicable deductions, exemptions and tax credits are applied to reduce their reported earnings.

Of the nearly 1.7 million tax filers expected to pay more in state income taxes under the plan, their increase for calendar year 2026 will average $560, with hikes ranging from $98 on the low end of income levels to over $10,000 for taxpayers reporting more than $1 million in adjusted income.

That compares to about 550,000 tax filers who would see an average decrease of $2,110.

Thanks to a new personal income deduction for low-income earners, several hundred people at the bottom end of the pay scale would see an average decrease of $3,700, while tens of thousands of people reporting $30,000 to $50,000 of income would see a dip of less than $40.

On the top end of the scale, roughly 9,900 tax filers reporting more than $1 million would see their income tax liability plummet by an average of $31,000.

More people would be contributing to state coffers.

Under the proposal, 23% of tax filers would still pay zero in state income taxes. But that compares to roughly 45% currently, according to the Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office.

“Everybody has to pay something — a little something, at least — to be a part of this great state of South Carolina,” Gov. Henry McMaster said last week when the plan was announced.

The new personal adjustment would provide a $6,000 deduction for single filers making up to $30,000, then provide some relief up to $40,000 of income. Married couples filing jointly could deduct $12,000 for incomes up to $60,000, with the deduction phasing out at $80,000.

Republicans’ ‘historic’ tax-cut plan attempts to give SC competitive edge

Still, looking at South Carolinians reporting an adjusted gross income between zero and $40,000, nearly 714,400 tax filers will owe more, while fewer than 20,000 would pay less.

The plan accomplishes what Republicans have long wanted: a tax structure that looks to be among the nation’s lowest. Collapsing three tax brackets to 3.99% would make South Carolina’s flat tax rate the lowest in the Southeast, except for Florida and Tennessee, which don’t have a state income tax.

In 2022, the Legislature passed a law that phased in a tax cut of more than $1 billion, but it still left the top marginal rate as the highest in the Southeast this year at 6.2%. However, the effective rate — what tax filers actually pay — was among the nation’s lowest even before the 2022 law.

The bill promises to keep cutting the rate as revenue collections increase. For every year income tax projections rise by 5%, the bill would reduce revenue by another $200 million until the tax rate gets to 2.49%.

When and if that happens, then the bill would truly be a tax cut for the overwhelming majority of South Carolinians: More than 77% of tax filers would see a collective decrease in their income taxes of $2.5 billion, compared to tax year 2026; 23% would still see no change whatsoever, but no one would pay more.

How many years it would take to get to 2.49% would depend on the economy and income growth.

Advocates promise to make the Legislature’s ruling Republicans feel the pressure to pass the bill.

The state chapter of Americans for Prosperity announced last week plans to launch a “six figure campaign” urging legislators to approve the plan. The group’s marketing push will include mailings, as well as online and radio ads and an “unmatched grassroots presence” going door to door asking residents to call their legislators.

This is a developing story. It will be updated from Tuesday’s scheduled hearing before a House Ways and Means subcommittee.

SC Daily Gazette is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. SC Daily Gazette maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Seanna Adcox for questions: info@scdailygazette.com.

Attorneys for one of the men accused by U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace of being a sexual predator have issued a “demand for action,” giving the congresswoman 10 days to produce evidence or publicly apologize for what they call “outrageous” allegations.

In a letter sent to Mace on Thursday, attorneys for Brian Musgrave outlined three possible scenarios: Provide evidence that he was involved in the alleged crimes, retract the allegations against him and publicly apologize, or prepare to be sued.

“You upended Brian’s life when you accused him falsely of being a rapist, a predator, and a sex trafficker,” wrote attorneys Eric Bland and Ronald Richter Jr. in a letter provided to the SC Daily Gazette and other outlets late Thursday.

“He is none of those things,” the letter continued, calling him a “loving husband” to his wife of 22 years and “loving father” to his two children.

“The damage you have inflected upon Brian and his family is immense,” they wrote.

Mace’s spokeswoman declined Friday morning to directly respond to the letter. Instead, she referred the Gazette to what Mace said from the House floor regarding Musgrave.

Mace seemed to address the allegations herself through a post on X late Thursday: “Witness intimidation is real, and it is illegal. Hold the line,” she wrote without being specific.

In a nearly hour-long, bombshell speech on the U.S. House floor Feb. 10, Mace accused Musgrave, Patrick Bryant (her ex-fiancé), and two other men of sexually assaulting women and girls and secretly recording the abuse. She was among the victims, Mace said.

All four vehemently denied the allegations immediately following her speech.

The letter from Musgrave marks the first threat of a lawsuit.

Speeches from the U.S. House floor are protected by the “speech or debate” clause of the U.S. Constitution, which shields members of Congress from lawsuits for what is said in either chamber.

Musgrave’s attorneys questioned whether her speech — which had nothing to do with pending legislation — is actually covered by that clause, and they’re willing to go to court to test it.

“You may view the floor of Congress as a sanctuary for slander. We do not,” the letter reads.

It noted that when Musgrave disputed the allegations on social media, Mace blasted back Feb. 11 with her own posts. They included a line saying he “must have missed the part of my speech” when she said she documented evidence with metadata.

Produce the metadata that links Musgrave to the alleged crimes, “and we will cease our pursuit of this matter,” the attorneys wrote.

After Mace’s speech, the State Law Enforcement Division confirmed that Bryant is being investigated for assault, harassment and voyeurism. The investigation began in December 2023 after SLED was contacted by U.S. Capitol Police, SLED said in a statement Feb. 10.

Mace and Bryant broke up in late 2023, which would be after Mace said she found evidence on his cellphone.

Bryant has repeatedly denied the allegations and pledged to cooperate fully to clear his name.

Another man accused by Mace as being a predator told The Post and Courier he was recently interviewed by SLED and told he was not a subject of the investigation.

He responded Friday morning to news of the letter from Musgrave’s attorney: “Only 9 days left to retract and apologize,” wrote Eric Bowman of Sullivans Island.

A SLED spokeswoman said Friday there’s nothing new to report. The “investigation is active and ongoing,” her statement read.

Musgrave’s connection to the Isle of Palms condo where Mace said she was sexually assaulted while unconscious after being drugged is that he’s a partial owner. It’s an investment and place for family vacations where Bryant, described as a “lifelong friend,” periodically lived as a paid tenant, according to the letter.

“We are struck by your conviction that something inappropriate happened to you (and perhaps to others),” it reads, before listing a string of things he denies doing: “He did not rape you. He did not drug you. He did not film you. … He did not assist anyone in perpetrating any crimes against you.”

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

SC Daily Gazette is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. SC Daily Gazette maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Seanna Adcox for questions: info@scdailygazette.com.

COLUMBIA — Republican support for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley dwindled in her home state over the last few months while Donald Trump’s already commanding lead grew, according to the latest Winthrop Poll released Wednesday.

The poll, conducted after Trump won the New Hampshire GOP primary, shows the former president with a whopping 36 percentage-point lead over Haley among those likely to vote in South Carolina’s Feb. 24 contest. Early voting started Monday.

Haley’s overall support grew as she picked up voters who previously backed GOP contenders who dropped out. However, twice as many self-identified Republicans dislike her compared to three months ago.

Haley does much better among voters who self-identify as independent, who are almost evenly split between the two. But Trump has the support of nearly three of every four Republicans, according to the poll, which surveyed 1,717 registered voters from Feb. 2 to Feb. 10.

South Carolina voters do not register by party, so any registered voter who did not participate in the Democratic primary can cast a ballot. Voters who self-identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents were not asked if they planned to vote. Such crossover voters are likely to help Haley.

“However, not only is crossover voting less prevalent than many partisans make it out to be, it would take quite a few crossover votes to cut into Trump’s lead,” said Scott Huffmon, director of the Winthrop Poll.

Haley could still motivate on-the-fence independents and Democrats to help close the gap, he said.

Her loss in the Nevada primary to “none of these candidates” amid the polling couldn’t have helped, he added. That state-run contest was largely symbolic, with Trump participating in a separate caucus run by the Republican Party that actually counted for delegates. Haley did not campaign in the state, calling the caucus rigged for Trump, but a landslide loss to nobody was seen as an embarrassment.

The last Winthrop Poll was conducted in November, just before U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina unexpectedly dropped out of the race.

More of his supporters went to Haley than Trump, despite Scott endorsing Trump ahead of the New Hampshire primary. Haley also picked up a bit more of the voters who originally backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, which surprised Huffmon.

“I had assumed that supporters of the candidate running as ‘Trump-Lite’ would migrate to Trump, but Haley showed a surprising pull for these voters who were apparently looking for a Trump alternative,” said the director of Winthrop University’s Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research.

“That said, the sheer mathematics of winning over more of DeSantis’ declining number of supporters could do little to cut into Trump’s lead.”

Of likely voters who said they back Haley, about half of them have supported her from the race’s outset. That compares to more than 70% of those voting for Trump being with him from the beginning, according to the results.

Haley’s favorability among Republicans in South Carolina has dropped by 15 percentage points since November — from 71% to 56% in the latest poll. Meanwhile, about a third of GOP voters now have an unfavorable view of her. That’s a doubling from three months ago.

“That seems to correspond with her increasing attacks on Trump,” Huffmon said. “This would seem to indicate that in South Carolina, as apparently in the nation as whole, that the Republican Party is very much Trump’s party.”

The percentage of South Carolina voters who like or dislike Trump remains about evenly split.

The general election

President Joe Biden is expected to lose South Carolina no matter who wins the nomination. But among all of the state’s registered voters, Haley would beat Biden by a few more percentage points than Trump, according to the poll.

Huffmon noted those numbers don’t include voters who said they’re undecided or people who register to vote between now and November.

Opinions of Biden are unchanged over the last three months, with nearly 60% of all registered voters in South Carolina disapproving. Broken down by party, 90% of self-identified Republicans disapprove, while 17% of Democrats disapprove.

SC Daily Gazette is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. SC Daily Gazette maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Seanna Adcox for questions: info@scdailygazette.com. Follow SC Daily Gazette on Facebook and Twitter.