Living in a battleground state, Michigan voters have an influence on who wins the U.S. presidential election — and can be unpredictable in which candidate they grant 15 electoral votes. In 2016, voters chose former President Donald Trump but reversed course in 2020 to elect Democratic President Joe Biden.

With a 2020 Trump vs Biden presidential rematch around the corner this November, Chuck Todd, a political analyst for NBC News, spoke with WDIV-TV news anchor Devin Scillian on Wednesday about the upcoming national election.

“We would only be so lucky to be in a coma for the next six months,” Scillian said, referencing the stress associated with the upcoming election.

The conversation was on the agenda for the second day of the annual Detroit Regional Chamber’s Mackinac Policy Conference.

Scillian said he believes whoever wins Michigan in the presidential race will win the election.

“It does feel like Michigan is a bit more volatile,” Todd responded. He said he flips back and forth between Michigan and its neighbor, Wisconsin, on which state is more decisive in the bigger picture of the election.

Todd attributed the volatility to a divided Republican party in the state, a question on turnout for the election and the potential for a protest vote against Biden over how the administration has handled the situation in Gaza.

Todd did talk briefly about the impact of progressive voters’ frustration with how the Biden administration addressed Israel’s military attacks against Hamas militants in Gaza that have resulted in tens of thousands of civilian deaths. He said Wisconsin could also pull an impactful protest vote. However, the U.S role in Israel may not be as salient of an issue come November if there is a ceasefire in the meantime, according to Todd.

Environmental concerns and cost of living will be bigger issues for Generation Z voters, Todd said.

“It’s their own version of sustainability,” Todd said. “For them, economic sustainability and climate change are interlocked.”

Scillian and Todd discussed several other issues that could sway the election, including Trump’s ongoing criminal trials, perceptions of the economy, ballot initiatives for abortion rights and third-party candidates.

Whether or not Trump is convicted in his ongoing criminal trial will not have a huge influence on his fate in the presidential election, according to Todd. Voters may not see Trump’s personal affairs as an important factor in their decision.

“Voters already knew who they were electing in Donald Trump in 2016,” Todd said. “The ‘Access Hollywood’ tape was not kept secret. That was a very well-known fact, and they elected him anyway.”

However, voters across the aisle care about the economy, a topic Biden is not really campaigning on, Todd said.

Biden’s campaign focuses on labeling himself as good for democracy. But Todd said most people who are invested in democracy already support Biden.

“If you are in the dispassionate middle or not paying attention, you’re just trying to live your life,” Todd said. “And what’s in front of you: cost-of-living.”

Generally, U.S. voters seem dispassionate about their options in the upcoming election, and some have looked for paths to another nominee. Todd said there are no other realistic options at this point, but he referenced some other candidates who might be better fits for a White House run, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is at the conference.

Todd and Scillian also discussed Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a buzzy third-party candidate. If debates between Trump and Biden are messy, Todd predicts more voters will become “Kennedy curious.” While RFK Jr. doesn’t really have a shot at the top office, he could pull votes away from either of the main party candidates.

While the Kennedy family members are important figures in the legacy of the Democratic Party, Todd predicts that connection will matter less to voters. Instead, he said some Republicans, specifically the ones invested in conspiracy theories, will vote for Kennedy over Trump.

“What are you afraid of Joe Biden?” Todd said. “… If you think you are dealing with one conspiracy theorist, don’t you want the conspiracy theorist vote split in two?”

Voters may not feel too excited to cast ballots for Trump or Biden, but the chance at expanding abortion access through a ballot initiative could reinvigorate them. Many Democratic politicians are running on increasing abortion access, and states across the country, including Missouri and Florida, will most likely have a question on the ballot for voters pertaining to that issue in November.

Todd said abortion access, and the chance to vote on it, could increase voter turnout and bring energy to the Democratic Party on Election Day.

“I look at my own daughter, who’s 20, goes to school in the state of Florida, is now figuring out how to register to vote in the state of Florida, because of that initiative,” Todd said.

Todd and Scillian also talked about the role of journalism in the U.S. and how to improve the industry. Todd said journalists should see themselves as a public service for people and connect national news to local news.

Michigan Advance is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Michigan Advance maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Susan J. Demas for questions: info@michiganadvance.com. Follow Michigan Advance on Facebook and Twitter.

Many Michigan politicians took to social media following the historic conviction of former President Donald Trump.

U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) acknowledged on her personal X account the historic significance of Trump becoming the first former president to be convicted of a crime.

“This is an unprecedented moment, and a sad one for our country: a former president convicted of a series of crimes,” Slotkin wrote. “Presidents should be leaders we look up to; now, one of them is a convicted felon, found guilty by a jury of his peers. That’s nothing to celebrate.”

This is an unprecedented moment, and a sad one for our country: a former president convicted of a series of crimes. Presidents should be leaders we look up to; now, one of them is a convicted felon, found guilty by a jury of his peers. That’s nothing to celebrate. The only good…
— Elissa Slotkin (@ElissaSlotkin) May 30, 2024

Trump was found guilty Thursday in a New York court of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records aimed at covering up hush money paid to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election he won.

Responses to the convictions were generally divided along party lines in Michigan, with Republicans standing with Trump and Democrats supporting the trial’s result.

Trump and some of his Michigan allies reacted to the conviction with fury and criticized the justice system.

“The Biden-directed Witch-Hunt is a full-frontal assault on our Constitution,” the Michigan Republican Party wrote in a press release. “It is a never-before-seen abuse of executive and prosecutorial power against the chief political opponent of the sitting President and the current nominee of the Republican Party.”

The party accused Judge Juan Merchan, who handled the case, and President Joe Biden’s administration of election interference, saying the trial was an attempt to keep Trump off the campaign trail.

Other Michigan Republicans also hit social media to express support for Trump and anger towards the judicial system. U.S. Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Bruce Twp.) said, “I stand with President Trump now and I always will” on X.

U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) called the trial a “travesty,” and U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland) said it was a “sham.”

Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Porter Twp.) also weighed in on his personal Facebook page.

“The use of our legal system as a political weapon perpetrated by these left-wing fanatics is abhorrent,” he wrote.

U.S. Senate hopeful Mike Rogers, a GOP former congressman who has been endorsed by Trump, described the trial as an “affront to justice” in a release. Senate candidate Sherry O’Donnell also defended the former president, saying in a release that the trial was an “illegal scheme to rig the election.”

“I am furious about this verdict, and I am deeply worried about the future of our nation when the courts can be so abused,” O’Donnell said in a release.

While fewer Democratic leaders chimed in about conviction, the Michigan Democratic Party reposted the Biden-Harris campaign’s statement on X, which encouraged people to vote in the presidential election, since Trump will still be eligible to run. The party account also posted: “34. That’s it. That’s the tweet,” referencing the number of counts Trump was found guilty on.

34.
That’s it. That’s the tweet.
— Michigan Democrats (@MichiganDems) May 31, 2024

Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes posted a thread on X that began with: “Yesterday we saw that even Donald Trump isn’t above the law. We also know that convicted or not, the GOP is sticking with a nominee who is not fit to serve. And as Trump grows more unhinged and dangerous, many leading Republicans are only embracing him tighter.”

Sam Inglot, the executive director of the liberal organization Progress Michigan, said in a release that the decision to hold Trump accountable was “worth celebrating.”

In a statement to the Advance, U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Waterford Twp.) said she honored the judicial decision.

“No one is above the rule of law and yesterday’s conviction, rendered by 12 fellow citizens, demonstrates that,” Stevens said. “Our judiciary and our institutions are strong.”

Many Democrats countered the claim that the trial was rigged, including Michigan Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks (D-Grand Rapids) and U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) on X and Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint) in a release.

In this unprecedented moment, it’s imperative that all Americans respect the decision of the court. Donald Trump received a fair trial and is now going to be held accountable for his crimes. https://t.co/528AarlALP
— SML Winnie Brinks (@WinnieBrinks) May 30, 2024

Brinks said Trump received a fair trial and encouraged U.S. citizens to “respect the decision of the court.” Thanedar called the conviction “a win for our justice system and our democracy.” Kildee wrote that the former president had due process and a fair trial.

“The jury has rendered its verdict, and all Americans should respect the verdict and the rule of law,” Kildee said in a release.

Trump is scheduled to be sentenced July 11. Prosecutors have not yet disclosed if they are going to pursue prison time, but conviction carries a penalty of probation to up to four years in prison for each of the 34 counts. The verdict will not prevent Trump from running for president for a second time.

Michigan Advance is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Michigan Advance maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Susan J. Demas for questions: info@michiganadvance.com. Follow Michigan Advance on Facebook and Twitter.