Mount Spurr, whose volcanic ash darkened Anchorage’s skies in 1953 and 1992, may be building toward another eruption, according to a statement issued Thursday by the Alaska Volcano Observatory.

For months, observatory scientists have monitored a growing number of earthquakes beneath and near the volcano, snow melting atop it, and bulging ground around it.

Observatory scientists now believe that activity has grown to the point that there’s an equal chance between no eruption and an eruption from Spurr’s Crater Peak in the near future.

“Indeed, that’s where we are, based on the anomalous data streams that have come in,” said Matt Haney, scientist in charge of the Alaska Volcano Observatory in Anchorage.

Haney said the assessment came after more than two weeks of discussion among observatory staff.

There’s also a small chance of an explosion at Spurr’s summit, a point about 75 miles west of Anchorage that hasn’t erupted in the past 5,000 years.

“We’re watching it very closely,” Haney said. “We’re saying that there’s unrest above background (levels), but it’s uncertain if this is actually building to an eruption.”

Spurr’s activity since April 2024 is similar to what the mountain did before Crater Peak’s 1992 eruption, which closed area airports and caused Southcentral residents to stay inside to avoid ash.

The recent activity is also similar to what was seen at the mountain between 2004 and 2006, when there was no eruption.

On the observatory’s four-step warning scale, Spurr is still at the second-lowest step, “advisory.” That would change if scientists begin seeing conditions like what occurred at Spurr in 1992.

That year, an eruption was preceded by three weeks of escalating activity at the volcano, including nonstop seismic tremors and huge amounts of melting ice and snow atop the mountain.

“We haven’t seen those signals yet, but we’re watching it very closely, since Spurr is, in Alaska, one of the very highest-threat volcanoes. It’s the closest volcano to Anchorage. So it’s keeping us busy at AVO,” Haney said.

More than 200 earthquakes have been detected at Spurr in the past week, but that’s short of the nonstop shaking that occurred before the 1992 eruption.

“These are very small (earthquakes). If we were out there at Spurr, we wouldn’t even feel them,” Haney said. “These are Magnitude 1 earthquakes. They have no discernible shaking, but they’re important because they’re telling us about the conditions inside the volcano. Every day, we’re locating dozens of these small earthquakes, and just in the past month, we’ve begun to see more earthquakes.”

On Friday, AVO scientists took advantage of a blue-sky day in Southcentral Alaska to fly over Spurr and take gas samples, looking for elevated levels of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide that could be a sign of an approaching eruption.

Data from that flight was not immediately available, and two prior overflights didn’t find unusual levels of those gases.

Haney said a maintenance flight was also scheduled Friday to remove snow from instruments around the mountain.

The volcano observatory is a collaborative effort between the USGS, University of Alaska and state geologists. Normally, its attention is spread across the state, from the Aleutians to Southeast Alaska’s Mount Edgecumbe. Spurr’s activity is forcing scientists to focus, Haney said.

“It’s a time where the whole observatory is coming together and discussing, trying to make sense of the real-time data that we’re obtaining,” he said.

Alaska Beacon is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Alaska Beacon maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Andrew Kitchenman for questions: info@alaskabeacon.com.

Seven years ago, heavy tariffs levied by President Donald Trump against China triggered a trade war that crimped Alaska’s seafood exports and left fishermen with less money for their catches.

On Saturday, a second round of Trump tariffs is scheduled to take effect, and the impact on Alaska is expected to be even bigger than it was in his first term.

Trump’s new 10% tariff on China, Alaska’s biggest international trading partner, is accompanied by a 25% on imports from Canada, Alaska’s fourth-largest trading partner, and a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico.

All three countries are expected to launch retaliatory tariffs on imports from the United States, making a variety of products more expensive here.

“Alaskans should know that the Trump administration’s tariffs on Canadian goods will make life more expensive for them, and will be damaging to businesses on both sides of the border,” said a spokesperson for Yukon Premier Ranj Pillai on Friday.

“These tariffs will make Canadian goods more expensive in Alaska, as higher costs paid by American importers will be passed on to American consumers,” the spokesperson said, adding that the Yukon government is closely monitoring the situation.

In 2023, Canada imported $596 million in products from Alaska — mostly unrefined minerals and ore concentrates, but also a substantial amount of seafood.

Red Dog Mine in Northwest Alaska sends almost 30% of its zinc to a smelter in British Columbia. In the Southeast Alaska town of Skagway, the Yukon government is planning to spend more than $45 million on a new terminal designed to export ore extracted from Yukon mines.

The price of gasoline, heating fuel and natural gas could also be affected by the tariffs. Alaska’s Nikiski refinery occasionally imports Canadian oil for in-state use, and if Southcentral Alaska switches to imported natural gas, the nearest source is a terminal slated to open in British Columbia this summer.

Sen. Cathy Giessel, R-Anchorage and co-chair of the state Senate’s committee on world trade, said on Friday that she intends to introduce a resolution formally opposing the tariffs.

The state of Alaska’s international trade office, devoted to increasing Alaska’s commerce with other nations, was unable to say what impacts Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s administration expects here.

China, Alaska’s biggest international trading partner, imported $1.2 billion worth of Alaska goods in 2023, with almost half that total consisting of seafood.

No state exports more seafood internationally than Alaska does, and when a Dunleavy-commissioned committee met early this year to craft a plan to reverse the seafood industry’s decline, stopping tariff increases was a major topic.

Jeremy Woodrow, director of the state-run Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, said on Friday that if the tariffs encourage Americans to buy more Alaska seafood, then it’s possible that Alaska could avoid an economic hit.

The value of the U.S. dollar, the value of foreign currencies, plus normal supply and demand also matter in how much fish gets exported where, he said. Tariffs are only part of the equation.

Seven years ago, they were a conclusive part.

“We lost China as a destination market because of those high tariffs,” he said, adding that the trade that exists today tends to involve fish being exported to China for processing, then re-exported to another country for a final destination.

This time around, he said, “I think a lot of us are looking at Trump’s tariffs, especially for Canada and China, as more of a bargaining chip, and that these aren’t a lasting tariff.”

Trump has said he wants Canada to do more to interdict the flow of illegal drugs coming to the United States. If Trump thinks Canada has done enough, he could lift the tariffs.

In the meantime, Woodrow said, ASMI will be working to encourage Americans to buy more Alaska seafood and will continue to grow the market for Alaska seafood in places like South America, which is unaffected — so far — by Trump’s tariff actions.

Alaska Beacon is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Alaska Beacon maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Andrew Kitchenman for questions: info@alaskabeacon.com.

The U.S. Postal Service is advising absentee voters to get their ballots in the mail as soon as possible if they want them to be counted.

“We continue to recommend that it is a good common-sense measure for voters who choose to mail in their ballots to do so before Election Day and at least a week before their election office needs to receive them. If a ballot is due on Election Day, the Postal Service recommends mailing the ballot by this Tuesday (October 29),” the agency said in a written statement on Monday.

Alaska’s absentee ballots can arrive up to 10 days after Election Day (for ballots mailed within the state) and 15 days after (for ballots mailed internationally), but only if the ballot was postmarked on or before Election Day.

In Alaska, most mail is automatically postmarked in Anchorage or Juneau, so a ballot mailed elsewhere in the state may not be postmarked for several days.

Mail your ballot early, or go inside a local post office and ask to have it postmarked by hand if you’re mailing it close to Election Day. You’ll need to have two stamps because of the weight of the ballot. The state doesn’t pay return postage.

Under Alaska law, anyone can vote absentee for any reason, but a voter has to request a ballot first. Unlike the municipal elections in Anchorage and Juneau, blank ballots are not automatically mailed to all voters.

The deadline for requesting a blank ballot by mail was last week, but voters can still download and print a blank ballot to be mailed.

The state does operate dozens of early voting and absentee-in-person locations where you can vote in advance of Election Day instead of risking the mail.

If you want to avoid the mail but still vote from home, you can vote by fax, submitting your ballot electronically.

Yes, we know that fax machines are practically nonexistent, but many smartphones have fax apps that allow you to scan and send documents securely.

For new voters, the deadline to register normally has passed, but federal law will allow you to register and vote in the state’s federal elections only.

Alaska Beacon is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Alaska Beacon maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Andrew Kitchenman for questions: info@alaskabeacon.com. Follow Alaska Beacon on Facebook and X.

Gov. Mike Dunleavy told reporters on Wednesday that he’d like to answer Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s request for National Guard soldiers to support a state-run effort along the Mexico border, but he’s not sure the Alaska Legislature will approve the cost.

“To send the Guard down will cost us about — according to Adjutant General Saxe — about a million dollars a month for 100 folks. We’ll test the waters with the Legislature to see if they’re willing to fund that, and I wouldn’t mind helping Texas with their issue on the border,” Dunleavy said.

The governor’s remarks followed the announcement that the federal National Guard bureau has asked the Alaska National Guard to prepare for the deployment of 20 soldiers and two helicopters to support U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials along the American border with Mexico.

Since 2021, citing the perceived inadequacy of federal efforts, Texas has conducted Operation Lone Star, a state-run effort to fortify the international border and prevent crossings between the usual American ports of entry.

Texan efforts have at times conflicted with federal border-protection efforts, most notably with Texas’ recent decision to install razor wire along portions of the border. The U.S. Supreme Court recently ruled that Texas cannot stop federal officials from removing that wire and cannot interfere with federal officials during the course of their duties.

Dunleavy said on Wednesday that he wants to see more immigration, particularly to Alaska.

“I think we need more people. I think we need more immigrants. And I’ve always said, build a strong wall with many doors, many ways to get into this country,” he said.

Many Republican politicians have criticized the federal approach to the border, and former President Donald Trump said “willing states” should “deploy their guards to Texas.”

With federal soldiers potentially at odds with soldiers deployed from individual states, some commentators have raised the possibility of an armed conflict. Dunleavy said those concerns are overblown.

“There’s some nonsense that by doing that, you’re setting up a new Confederate army against the Union or that you’re setting up a flashpoint between Americans. That’s not the case, and that’s not something I would want. And I know Gov. Abbott. That’s not what he wants,” Dunleavy said.

Dunleavy and Attorney General Treg Taylor have issued statements in support of Texas’ position, and this week, Taylor and Adjutant General Torrence Saxe have conducted a series of closed-door briefings with legislators about planned and possible National Guard deployments to the border.

If Alaska National Guard soldiers were to deploy at Texas’ request, it would be under Dunleavy’s authority and the state would pay the bill, the governor said.

Alaska Beacon is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Alaska Beacon maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Andrew Kitchenman for questions: info@alaskabeacon.com. Follow Alaska Beacon on Facebook and Twitter.