SARASOTA, Fla. — Florida plans to end nearly a half-century of required childhood immunizations against diseases that have killed and maimed millions of children. Many critics of the decision, including doctors, are afraid to speak up against it.

With the support of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo on Sept. 3 announced his plan to end all school-age vaccination mandates in the state.

“Every last one of them is wrong and drips with disdain and slavery,” he told a cheering crowd of vaccination foes in Tallahassee. “Who am I, as a government or anyone else,” he said, “to tell you what you should put in your body?”

History shows that mandates increase the use of vaccines. Lower vaccination rates will mean increased rates of diseases like measles, hepatitis, meningitis, and pneumonia — and even the return of diphtheria and polio. Many of these diseases threaten not just the unvaccinated but also those they come in contact with, including babies and older people with weakened immunity.

But that scientific fact is being left unsaid in Florida. Health officials have largely been silent in the face of Ladapo’s campaign — and not because they agree with him. The University of Florida muzzled infectious disease experts, said emeritus professor Doug Barrett, formerly the university’s chief of pediatrics and senior vice president for health affairs.

“They’re told not to speak to anyone without permission from supervisors,” he said. University spokespeople didn’t respond to requests for comment.

County-level Department of Health officials across the state got the same message, said John Sinnott, a retired professor at the University of South Florida who is friends with one of the county health leaders.

Sarasota County’s health department referred a reporter to state officials in Tallahassee, who responded with a statement that vaccines will “remain available” to families who want them. The state did not respond to other requests for comment or for an interview with Ladapo.

Many pediatricians are silent, too, at least in public.

“A lot of them don’t take a strong stance on whether kids need to be vaccinated,” said Neil Manimala, a urologist and the president-elect of the Hillsborough County Medical Association. “They don’t want to lose business. And there are enough anti-vax people who can lambaste you on Google, spreading stories about clinicians who ‘want to instill the poison jabs.’”

History of Modern Vaccine Mandates

Several states ended vaccination mandates early last century when smallpox was the only widely given vaccine, said historian Robert Johnston of the University of Illinois-Chicago. None has done so since other vaccines were added to the schedule. (Routine smallpox vaccination ended in 1972).

In the 1970s, persistent measles outbreaks provoked officials to strengthen child protection with enforced school mandates in every state. Today the partisan split on vaccine policy in the wake of the covid outbreak has changed the equation. This is nowhere more the case than in Florida, although legislators in Texas and Louisiana are also considering ending mandatory vaccination, and Idaho enables parents to get an exemption just by asking for it.

“This is really going to be a watershed moment for families who already were not sure they want to do vaccines and now are being told they don’t need them,” said Jennifer Takagishi, vice president of the Florida branch of the American Academy of Pediatrics.

It’s hard to know how fast vaccine-preventable diseases might return if Florida ends its mandates — or how the public will respond. Asked in an interview whether his office had modeled disease outcomes before his September announcement, Ladapo said “Absolutely not.” Parental freedom of choice isn’t a scientific matter, he said. “It’s an issue of right and wrong.”

Ladapo’s Department of Health did not respond a month later when asked whether it was making contingency plans for outbreaks. During a 2024 measles outbreak in Broward County, Ladapo sent parents a letter granting them permission to send unvaccinated children to school, defying the science-supported advice from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In 1977, a measles epidemic that killed two children in Los Angeles County spurred a dramatic crackdown on vaccine-shunning across the country. But during an epidemic this year that killed two Texas children and 14 people in Mexico, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas signed a bill making it easier for parents to opt out of getting required shots.

“When are we going to have enough of a groundswell of people dying or becoming severely ill that leads people to push back and say, ‘No, no, we want the vaccines?’” Takagishi said. “I don’t know if we know the tipping point yet.”

“I don’t have the answer,” said Emory University emeritus professor Walter Orenstein, who worked on measles for many of his 26 years at the CDC and led the agency’s immunization program from 1988 to 2004. “Measles resurgences created the political will to support our overall immunization program. For some reason it hasn’t worked this time. It’s just sad.”

Youngsters in Florida are already among the least vaccinated in the nation, because of relatively lax enforcement, the post-covid backlash against shots, and the libertarian attitude of state officials. Statewide, only about 89% of kindergartners are fully vaccinated, with Sarasota County having the lowest rate, at about 80%. To be safe from the spread of measles, a community must be 95% immunized.

With Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. cutting vaccine research, filling the health agency with anti-vaccine activists and spreading doubt about vaccination’s safety and value, little stands in the way of decisions by Florida officials that are likely to cause rates to sink further.

Ladapo’s department is ending mandates for shots against hepatitis B, chickenpox, and the bacteria causing meningitis and pneumonia. Early next year, the Florida Legislature is expected to take up reversal of a 1977 law requiring kids at school and day care to be vaccinated against seven other diseases that can kill children: whooping cough, measles, polio, rubella, mumps, diphtheria, and tetanus.

After Measles, Which Disease Returns Next?

In the face of these attacks, scientists are attempting to predict which diseases are likely to make a resurgence and when.

A study published in April by Stanford epidemiologist Mathew Kiang and colleagues estimated that even at current vaccination levels, measles, declared eliminated from the United States in 2000, is likely to become a routine illness again. If measles vaccination rates drop by an additional 10%, there could be an average of about 450,000 cases yearly, with hundreds of deaths and cases of brain damage.

But the study may exaggerate the threat, said Shaun Truelove, an epidemic disease modeler at Johns Hopkins University who said he’s worried about losing public trust with alarmist predictions. Still, he said, an intensification of measles outbreaks seems certain. The country is already in the midst of its worst measles year in three decades, with more than 1,500 cases and current outbreaks in South Carolina and Minnesota.

“You don’t really need to model measles if vaccines stop,” Truelove said. “In the pockets where there are outbreaks, every kid who isn’t vaccinated will get infected.”

Measles is the “canary in the coal mine” for other vaccine-preventable diseases, said Sal Anzalone, a pediatrician with Healthcare Network in Naples, Florida. “When you start seeing measles, there’s more to come behind that.”

People who want vaccinations will still be able to get them if mandates are eliminated, Ladapo has said.

But the state’s message confuses parents, especially the poor and underserved, Anzalone said. It’s typically hard for them to get children to appointments unless they have to, he said, noting that 80% of his patients are insured through Medicaid. If policies put more of the payment burden on parents, fewer will vaccinate, he said.

And if vaccinations fall and infections increase, children won’t be the only people affected. Cancer patients and people in Florida’s numerous elderly communities would be at risk. Schools and businesses would be disrupted. Disease could disrupt the tourism industry, which brought 143 million people to the state last year. (The Florida Chamber of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.)

“Infectious diseases don’t stop with the people who say they are willing to bear the risk,” said Meagan Fitzpatrick, a University of Maryland vaccinologist. Because of their unpredictable spread, she said, “with an infectious disease, vaccination is never an individual choice.”

Clinicians fear that an end to mandates could allow hepatitis B, a chronic liver disease, to return with force, since an estimated 2 million Americans carry the virus. They also foresee a return to the days when infants with high fever had to undergo a painful and risky lumbar puncture and blood draw to rule out meningitis, as well as a blood infection caused by the bacteria Haemophilus influenzae type B that routine vaccination has prevented since the 1990s.

Barbara Loe Fisher, who co-founded the modern movement against vaccine mandates in the early 1980s after her son suffered a reaction to the pertussis vaccine then in use (and since replaced with a safer shot), is skeptical that Floridians will abandon vaccination en masse, despite the end to mandates.

Fisher, president of the National Vaccine Information Center, moved from Virginia to southwestern Florida in 2020. She said she believes that vaccine injuries are undercounted and that children are vaccinated without informed consent. She acknowledged that mandates have increased coverage but said their removal will increase trust in public health and medicine.

“It is time to allow biological products like vaccines to be subject to the law of supply and demand,” she said, “just like any other product sold in the marketplace.”

Sinnott, for his part, anticipates measles will come roaring back, along with intensified whooping cough, influenza, and covid outbreaks.

“They think nothing will happen. Maybe they’re right,” said Sinnott, the retired professor. “It’s an experiment.”

Polio could return, and that is not an abstraction for Sinnott, 77.

He was 7 years old when he contracted the disease, spending six months in a wheelchair. In recent years he’s suffered from post-polio syndrome — difficulty swallowing, and tightness and pain in his limbs.

The first polio vaccine was licensed in 1955, the year he got sick. “I remember one time my mother telling me, ‘The line was too long,’” he said.

Sinnott forgives his parents, and parents today who waver on vaccination. He’s less tolerant of certain public health leaders. They should know better, he said.

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

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Sue Sheridan’s baby boy, Cal, suffered brain damage from undetected jaundice in 1995. Helen Haskell’s 15-year-old son, Lewis, died after surgery in 2000 because weekend hospital staffers didn’t realize he was in shock. The episodes turned both women into advocates for patients and spurred research that made American health care safer.

On Tuesday, the Trump administration slashed the organization that supported that research — the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality — and fired roughly half of its remaining employees as part of a perplexing reorganization of the federal Health and Human Services Department.

Haskell, of Columbia, South Carolina, has done research and helped write AHRQ-published surveys and guidebooks on patient engagement for hospitals. The dissolution of AHRQ is dislodging scores of experienced patient-safety experts, a brain drain that will be impossible to rectify, she said.

Survey data gathered by AHRQ provides much of what is known about hospitalizations for motor accidents, measles, methamphetamine, and thousands of other medical issues.

“Nobody does these things except AHRQ,” she said. “They’re all we’ve got. And now the barn door’s closed.”

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. posted on the social platform X on Tuesday that layoffs at HHS, aimed at reducing the department’s workforce by about 20,000 employees, were the result of alleged inefficacy. “What we’ve been doing isn’t working,” he said. “Despite spending $1.9 trillion in annual costs, Americans are getting sicker every year.”

But neither Kennedy nor President Donald Trump have explained why individual agencies such as AHRQ were targeted for cuts or indicated whether any of their work would continue.

At their first meeting with the leadership of AHRQ last month, officials from Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency said they didn’t know what the agency did — and that its budget would be cut by 80% to 90%, according to two people with knowledge of the meeting who were granted anonymity because of fears of retribution.

On Friday, the administration said AHRQ would merge with HHS’ Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation.

An AHRQ spokesperson, Rachel Seeger, said its acting chief, Mamatha Pancholi, was unavailable to answer questions.

AHRQ focused on best use of health care dollars

Created on the foundation of an earlier agency in 1999, AHRQ has had two major functions: collecting survey data on U.S. health care expenditures, experiences, and outcomes; and funding research aimed at improving the safety and delivery of health care. It also has published tools and guidelines to enhance patient safety.

Its latest budget of $513 million amounts to about 0.04% of HHS spending.

“If you’re going to spend $5 trillion a year on health care, it would be nice to know what the best use of that money is,” said a senior AHRQ official who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of losing his job. “To gut a 300-member, $500 million agency for no other reason than to placate a need to see blood seems really shortsighted.”

Newly sworn-in FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, a surgeon who has advocated for patient safety, wrote or co-authored at least 10 research papers supported by AHRQ funding since 1998. AHRQ research and guidelines played a key role in lowering the incidence of hospital-acquired infections — such as deadly blood infections caused by contaminated IV lines, which fell 28% from 2015 to 2023, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Medical residents training in the 1980s were taught that such infections were an inevitable, often fatal byproduct of heart surgery, but AHRQ-funded research “showed that fairly simple checklists about preventing infections would be effective at going to zero,” said Richard Kronick, a University of California-San Diego researcher who led AHRQ from 2013 to 2016.

Medical errors caused by missed diagnoses, drug errors, hospital infections, and other factors kill and maim tens of thousands of Americans each year. Makary published a controversial study in 2016 hypothesizing that errors killed 250,000 people a year in the United States — making medical mistakes the nation’s third-leading cause of death.

“There are all kinds of terrible things about our health care system’s outcomes and how we pay for it, the most expensive care in the world,” Kronick said. “Without AHRQ, we’d be doing even worse.”

AHRQ-funded researchers such as Hardeep Singh at Baylor College of Medicine have chipped away at patient safety risks for more than two decades. Singh devises ways to integrate technologies like telemedicine and artificial intelligence into electronic health records to alert doctors to potential prescribing errors or misdiagnoses.

Singh has 15 scholars and support staff members supported by three AHRQ grants worth about $1.5 million, he said. The elimination of the agency’s office that funds outside researchers, among the cuts announced this week, is potentially “career-ending,” he said. “We need safety research to protect our patients from harms in health care. No organization in the world does more for that than AHRQ.”

Republicans have long been skeptical of AHRQ and the agency that preceded it. Some doctors saw it as meddling in their medical practices, while some GOP Congress members viewed it as duplicating the mission of the National Institutes of Health.

But when the Trump administration proposed merging it with NIH in 2018, a House-ordered study into health research priorities validated AHRQ’s valuable role.

Now, the naysayers have triumphed.

111 AHRQ staffers fired this week

Gordon Schiff, a Harvard Medical School internist who has received AHRQ funding since 2001, was among the first to learn about policy changes there when in February he got an email from the editors of an AHRQ patient-safety website informing him “regretfully” that a 2022 case study on suicide prevention he co-authored had been removed “due to a perception that it violates the White House policy on websites ‘that inculcate or promote gender ideology.‘”

The article was not about gender issues. It briefly mentioned that LGBTQ men were at a higher risk for suicide than the general population. Schiff was offered the option of removing the LGBTQ reference but refused. He and Harvard colleague Celeste Royce have sued AHRQ, HHS, and the Office of Personnel Management over removal of the article.

“All we were doing was presenting evidence-based risk factors from the literature,” he said. “To censor them would be a violation of scientific integrity and undermine the trustworthiness of these websites.”

PSNet, the AHRQ publication where Schiff and Royce’s article appeared, has been dissolved, although its website was still up as of Wednesday. Roughly half of AHRQ’s 300 staffers resigned following the initial DOGE warning; 111 staff members were fired Tuesday, according to an email that a top executive, Jeffrey Toven, sent to employees and was shown to KFF Health News. AHRQ’s remaining leadership was in the dark about Kennedy’s plans, he said.

HHS spokespeople did not respond to requests for comment. Stephen Parente, a University of Minnesota finance professor who said he consults informally with Trump health officials, said much of AHRQ’s work could be done by others. Its most vital services have been surveys that Westat, a private research company, performs for AHRQ on contract, said Parente, who was chief economist for health policy in the first Trump administration.

At the height of the Covid pandemic, he said, data produced by AHRQ and other government sources were outclassed by private sources. To track Covid, he relied on daily feeds of private insurance data from around the country.

Still, Parente said, the virtual disappearance of AHRQ means “we’re going to lose a culture of research that is measured, thoughtful, and provides a channel for young investigators to make their marks.”

A climate of deep depression has settled over the agency’s Rockville, Maryland, headquarters, the unnamed AHRQ official said: “Almost everyone loves their job here. We’re almost all PhDs in my center — a very collegial, talented group.”

The official said he was “generally skeptical” that AHRQ’s merger with the assistant secretary’s office would keep its mission alive. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the CDC conduct some health system quality research, but they are also losing staff, Harvard’s Schiff noted.

One of Schiff’s current AHRQ projects involved interviewing late-stage cancer patients to determine whether they could have been diagnosed earlier.

“The general public, I think, would like cancer to be diagnosed earlier, not when it’s stage 4 or stage 3,” he said. “There are things we could learn to improve our care and get more timely diagnosis of cancer.”

“Medical errors and patient safety risks aren’t going to go away on their own,” he said.

With input from Sheridan and other mothers of children who suffered from jaundice-related brain damage, AHRQ launched research that led to a change in the standard of care whereby all newborns in the United States are tested for jaundice before discharge from hospitals. Cases of jaundice-related brain damage declined from 7 per 100,000 to about 2 per 100,000 newborns from 1997 to 2012.

The misfortune of Lewis, Haskell’s son, led to a change in South Carolina law and later to a national requirement for hospitals to enable patients to demand emergency responses under certain circumstances.

Singh, a leading researcher on AI in health care, sees bitter irony in the way the Elon Musk-led DOGE has taken an ax to AHRQ, which recently put out a new request for proposals to study the technology. “Some think AI will fix health care without a human in the loop,” Singh said. “I doubt we get there by dismantling people who support or perform patient safety research. You need a human in the loop.”

This story was originally published at KFF Health News, Healthbeat’s national reporting partner.

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National Institutes of Health officials have urged scientists to remove all references to mRNA vaccine technology from their grant applications, two researchers said, in a move that signaled the agency might abandon a promising field of medical research.

The mRNA technology is under study at the NIH for prevention and treatment of infectious diseases, including flu and AIDS, and also cancer. It was deployed in the development of covid-19 vaccines credited with saving 3 million lives in the U.S. alone — an accomplishment President Donald Trump bragged about in his first term.

A scientist at a biomedical research center in Philadelphia wrote to a colleague, in an email reviewed by KFF Health News, that a project officer at NIH had “flagged our pending grant as having an mRNA vaccine component.”

“It’s still unclear whether mRNA vaccine grants will be canceled,” the scientist added.

NIH officials also told a senior NIH-funded vaccine scientist in New York state, who does not conduct mRNA vaccine research but described its efficacy in previous grant applications, that all references to mRNA vaccines should be scrubbed from future applications.

Scientists relayed their experiences on the condition of anonymity for fear of professional retaliation by the Trump administration.

A senior official at the National Cancer Institute confirmed that NIH acting Director Matthew Memoli sent an email across the NIH instructing that any grants, contracts, or collaborations involving mRNA vaccines be reported up the chain to Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s office and the White House.

Memoli sent a similar message ahead of the agency canceling other research, such as studies of vaccine hesitancy.

Memoli’s email on that topic bluntly stated that NIH was not interested in learning why people shun vaccines or in exploring ways to “improve vaccine interest and commitment.”

The National Cancer Institute official, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals, said that “it is reasonable to assume mRNA vaccine work is next.”

The official said a similar memo also went out regarding NIH-funded work in South Africa, which the White House has targeted over false claims that the country’s government is persecuting white people. More recently, another one went out regarding all global research collaborations, the official said.

Spokespeople for the White House, HHS, and the NIH did not respond to requests for comment.

The NIH, whose latest annual budget was $47 billion, is one of the world’s most critical sources of funding for basic biomedical research. Its mission and programs are under unprecedented scrutiny from Trump’s White House and the Department of Government Efficiency, the Elon Musk-led agency created by a Trump executive order that has directed federal agencies to prepare for widespread layoffs.

The NIH is funding at least 130 studies involving the mRNA technology in covid vaccines produced by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna that have been administered to billions of people worldwide.

A former government official familiar with internal discussions said that the Trump administration intends to cut some grants for mRNA vaccine research but that the timing is unclear. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity to protect relationships with the administration.

Political conservatives in the U.S. have promulgated conspiracy theories, unsupported by scientific evidence, that the shots and their relatively new technology are dangerous. This has undermined public support for covid vaccinations and mRNA research.

“There will not be any research funded by NIH on mRNA vaccines,” the scientist in New York said in an interview. “MAGA people are convinced that these vaccines have killed and maimed tens of thousands of people. It’s not true, but they believe that.”

Meanwhile, hundreds of other vaccine-related studies are in limbo. Kawsar Talaat, a vaccine researcher at the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University, has been waiting since the fall for money needed to recruit subjects for a study of an antidiarrheal vaccine.

“NIH approved our funding,” she said, “and now we’re waiting, and we don’t know if it’s going forward or going to be killed.”

The scientist in Philadelphia signaled that he believes Kennedy, a longtime anti-vaccine activist, is responsible for the NIH’s turn against mRNA research.

“Kennedy’s war on vaccines has started,” the scientist told his colleague.

The scientist in New York said that it was “ridiculous” to remove mRNA language from the grant applications. But “if my grant is rejected for any reason,” the scientist said, “people in my lab will lose their jobs.”

“I’ve worked with some of them for 20 years,” the scientist added. “They have children and families. There is a real climate of fear in academia about this now, especially among vaccine scientists.”

“My grant does not involve a request for funds to conduct mRNA vaccine experiments,” the scientist said, “so my principal concern was to avoid word-search flags that, at minimum, would lead to delays in any funding.”

While tenured research professors at universities generally receive a salary from their institution, the staffers who work in their labs and offices are often paid through NIH grants. The 2023 Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine was given to two scientists for developing mRNA vaccines, through work that relied on pharmaceutical companies and on NIH scientists working under infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci.

According to Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican who chairs the chamber’s Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, Kennedy promised during his Senate confirmation process that he would protect “the public health benefit of vaccination” and “work within the current vaccine approval and safety monitoring systems, and not establish parallel systems.”

Cassidy, a physician, had expressed reservations about confirming Kennedy to the HHS post and challenged his anti-vaccine views during a confirmation hearing. He ended up voting for him, he said, because Kennedy had agreed to work closely with Cassidy and his committee.

However, Kennedy has faced scrutiny in his first weeks in office for his handling of a large measles outbreak among mostly unvaccinated people in Texas that has led to the death of a child, the first U.S. measles death in more than a decade. A patient who tested positive for measles died in New Mexico, but the cause hasn’t been confirmed. Instead of urging vaccination against the disease, an almost surefire way to prevent infection, Kennedy has blamed malnourishment for the outbreak, promoted unproven treatments for measles, and falsely claimed in one Fox News interview that the vaccine is ineffective and even dangerous.

Cassidy did not respond to a request for comment on the NIH’s potential abandonment of mRNA vaccine research.

As part of the Trump administration’s push to examine spending on mRNA vaccines, health officials are reviewing a $590 million contract for bird flu shots that the Biden administration awarded to Moderna, Bloomberg News has reported. Legislation introduced by GOP lawmakers in at least seven states is aimed at banning or limiting mRNA vaccines. In some cases, the measures would hit doctors who give the injections with criminal penalties, fines, and the possible revocation of their licenses.

Stephanie Armour and Céline Gounder contributed to this article.

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF—an independent source of health policy research, polling, and journalism. Learn more about KFF.

Subscribe to KFF Health News' free Morning Briefing.

This article first appeared on KFF Health News and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.