Trump's election lies may cost Republicans the House in 2022: former GOP pollster

If the presidencies of Barack Obama, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton are any indication, President Joe Biden and the Democratic National Committee need to think long and hard about the 2022 midterms. Obama, Reagan and Clinton are three examples of U.S. presidents who — despite being popular enough to win a second term — saw their parties suffer a major pounding when the midterms arrived. Former President Donald Trump, in contrast to Obama, Reagan and Clinton, was pounded during the 2018 midterms and voted out of office two years later when Biden defeated him by more than 7 million in the popular vote. And according to former GOP pollster Frank Luntz, Trump's unending obsession with the 2020 election "could cost the Republicans the majority in the House in 2022."

Luntz issued that warning to Republicans during an interview with journalist Kara Swisher for the New York Times' podcast, "Sway," noting, "More than two-thirds of Republicans believe that the election was stolen." And Swisher responded, "So, it's working. This 'Big Lie' thing is working."

According to Luntz, Trump's bogus and totally debunked claims of widespread voter fraud in 2020 are terrible for the Republican Party because they may discourage GOP voter turnout in 2022.

Luntz told Swisher, "It is working.... What Donald Trump is saying is actually telling people it's not worth it to vote. Donald Trump single-handedly may cause people not to vote. And he may be the greatest tool in the Democrats' arsenal to keep control of the House and Senate in 2022."

Luntz also discussed the 2024 presidential election. It remains to be seen whether or not Trump will run in 2024; other Republicans who are being mentioned as possible 2024 presidential candidates range from Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. And Luntz believes that if Trump does decide to run in 2024, it will cost Republicans the United States' next presidential election.

"If Donald Trump runs for president as a Republican," Luntz told Swisher, "he's the odds-on favorite to win the nomination. He could never win a general election, but I can't imagine losing a Republican primary…. I would bet on him to be the nominee, and I would bet on him losing to whatever Democratic nominee there was."