Famed strategist eyes South Carolina Senate race for potential upset

U.S. President Donald Trump reacts while U.S. Senator Darline Graham (R-SC) speaks during a campaign rally for her at the Myrtle Beach Convention Center in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, U.S., August 21, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci

Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) won the runoff for the Republican Primary on Tuesday night, inching out a victory against Rep. Ralph Norman. One political strategist said that he doubts it would go to Democrats but urged folks to keep an eye on it.

"Normally, in South Carolina, we wouldn't want to waste any dollars. But I want to build on something that Matt [Mowers] said that's important," said Rocha.

"Even the senator who was there, [Lindsey] Graham, the original Graham, got less than 50 percent in his own primary. An opposition got 40 percent," said Rocha.

"And last night, even with the president's endorsement, she only got 52 percent. That's it. This is really important for everybody in a Republican primary, [but] not a general election. So that means there are people within the Republican Party who aren't happy with their own Republican Party," said Rocha.

When asked if a race like that could be competitive, he said that he thinks "it's on the table. Just because we're in an atmosphere where there's been 25 special elections for state house in America, where Democrats have flipped Republican seats and no Republicans have flipped Democratic seats. Just because of history and the party in power. So, I think just watch it. I would just keep it on your watch list."

Mowers got a big grin on his face, saying he would love to see Democrats dump millions and millions of dollars into deep red South Carolina. He said that six years ago, Democrats tried the same thing and it didn't happen.

"I don't see a single Ralph Norman voter voting for Annie Andrews," Mowers said.

During his rally on Tuesday night, Norman mentioned Trump's name and his rally burst into loud boos.

But Rocha explained they don't have to.

"That's important. A lot of them won't. The majority of them won't. But if 10 percent of them do this, place sits in play," Rocha said.

His example was what's unfolding in Texas, where a very unpopular Republican is running neck-and-neck with a Democrat in the polls.

"All I'm saying is if you look at Texas — and stay with me here in Texas — where you had this John Cornyn fight with [Ken] Paxton. Like, I don't think all the John Cornyn people are running to [James] Talarico. But if 10 percent do just like in this race, at this moment in time. Six years ago, you're exactly right, Matt. We got our clock cleaned when we spent a bunch of money against Graham. It's just a different time now in America, where Republicans have been in charge of everything."

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