CNN Data analyst Harry Enten revealed that President Donald Trump is now losing the to a new "Southern Strategy."
For generations, many white Southern voters supported Democrats. But after the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, many opposed the national Democratic Party’s new direction. Republican candidates, especially Barry Goldwater and Richard Nixon, sought the support of those voters through what became known as the “Southern Strategy.”
Campaign language shifted away from explicit talk of segregation toward issues such as “states’ rights” and “law and order.” Over the following decades, the strategy helped turn much of the South from a Democratic stronghold into a Republican one.
But new data suggests that support for the parties may be shifting again ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Democratic candidates are pulling ahead in Southern states, including Texas’ James Talarico, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), and Gov. Roy Cooper (D-N.C.). Enten said the potential Democratic gains could be “potentially historic.”
"The most wins in a year in the former Confederacy, in a midterm, is two," said Enten.
"So, in the 2000s midterm Senate races, we're looking at something historic potentially here. They're up right now in four states, the most wins in a year in the former Confederacy, in a midterm, in 2000, this century is only two. They could potentially win double the amount of races than they have in any midterm cycle this entire century in the southern United States, when you add together Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and the great Commonwealth of Virginia," said Enten.
Co-host Sidner asked what group is pushing these candidates over the top. Enten said it was coming from white college voters.
There has been a huge demographic shift in over the past 10 years, said Enten. He showed the 2016 polls that revealed just how much ground Republicans had lost in each state.
Among white college voters, North Carolina shifted from Republicans up by 19 to Democrats up by 13. Texas has shifted from Republicans up 31 points to being up only by 1 percent. Georgia Republicans were up 41 percent, and this election hold just a 13-point lead.
"The odds are moving in the Democrats' direction. Republicans were 56 percent chance a month ago. Now it's basically dead," said Enten. "Even 51 percent chance to 49 percent chance. So Democrats are very much in the game because of these southern races."