Stunning CNN analysis reveals likelihood of upset in key Senate races

For the first time in the 2026 midterm election, it is more likely that a Democrat could win in Texas than a Republican could win in Georgia.

Dana Bash explained on Monday that numbers for Texas Democrat James Talarico are on the rise while numbers for Republican Georgia Rep. Mike Collins continue to fall.

The CNN analysis updated its calculations for the U.S. Senate, showing that Texas is now more likely to flip to Democrats.

"These are the nine seats most likely to flip. You see this list here, ranked by likelihood. Now, to win control, Democrats must keep all their seats while flipping," Bash explained. "For more on this list. The big change from a month ago: Texas moved up two spots to number seven, while Georgia moved down two spots to number nine."

So, as Dash explained, "Texas is more likely to elect a Democrat to the Senate than Georgia is to elect a Republican."

They're taking more into account than mere poll numbers, like campaign cash on hand and the political environment in the states.

The numbers show the states ranked, with North Carolina being the most likely to flip, followed by Maine. Michigan is now likely to flip to a Republican, while Ohio, Alaska and Iowa also appear on the top 10 list. Texas moved up to seventh most likely to flip, while Georgia moved down to 10th.

CNN correspondent Arlette Saenz said that not only do Democrats need to flip the seats, but they also need to hold onto the four Democratic seats they had before. Therein lies the largest challenge, particularly in Michigan.

"That means that their plans have to go perfectly here," said Saenz. "I think the races where, within themselves, you saw the most change were within Maine and Michigan, right? Because Maine, they have that new Democratic candidate who's going to take on Susan Collins."

She said that Democrats still feel positive about Maine. However, Republicans think their "best" chance is in Michigan.

In Texas, the polls have narrowed, but the reporters explained that Talarico's campaign war chest is significant, noting Republican Ken Paxton is so desperate for cash he's asking for it on conservative news.

"Texas is obviously a huge state, a very expensive state in any cycle to run in," Bash said. "The Democrat, James Talarico, has raised — and has cash on hand. $21.5 million. Paxton, the Republican candidate, in what has been red Texas, has $1.8 million. And I want you to listen to what Ken Paxton did. He went on Fox and basically begged for money."

Bloomberg's White House reporter, James Mason, called the clip "extraordinary" because it is exceptionally rare to hear a Texas Republican being forced to beg for cash on Fox.

Mason said that it looks like a very real possibility, "certainly on the money side, but also on the polling. Like they've got a real chance of doing that in this race. And that is a huge shift from decades of political reality in that state."