Assassination attempts often make elected politicians more popular. In 1981, Ronald Reagan was shot in the same Washington Hilton Hotel that was the site of Trump’s latest assassination attempt. Reagan’s approval ratings jumped after he survived the attack.
Why does political violence help bolster approval ratings?
The obvious answer is that being subject to violence can humanize victims, softening criticism from supporters and critics alike.
The less obvious reason is that dodging or surviving bullets can super-humanize politicians, making them seem “touched” by God or like they have command over the vital powers of life and death.
Trump as superhero
When Trump lifted his fist in defiance, a trickle of blood on his face in Butler, Pa., a few months before the 2024 presidential election, he created an iconic image that bolstered his campaign and created a myth of invincibility.
This is the same man who claimed in 2016 that he “could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and…wouldn’t lose any voters.” Despite two impeachments, convictions on 34 felony charges, an admission of sexual assault on a hot microphone and multiple assault allegations, Trump was re-elected in 2024. Where others might have whithered, his forward march continued.
While Trump once claimed the ability to shoot people in downtown Manhattan and survive politically, the Butler shooting gave the impression that he himself could also be shot without losing his life, that he isn’t subject to normal vulnerabilities and that he is somehow superhuman. Trump himself has cited divine intervention as key to his ongoing survival despite multiple assassination attempts.
Terror management
Terror management theory (TMT) is a school of psychology that tracks how our relationships to life and death shape political outcomes.
According to TMT, we cope with our anxieties about death by pursuing “earthly heroism” — meaning we seek esteem according to our chosen world views. There is a growing body of experimental evidence to support this hypothesis.
Trump is walking confirmation of TMT.
He is a known germaphobe obsessed with perceptions of vitality. He obsesses over his hair since he sees baldness as weakness and defeat. By ruthlessly pursuing money — the measure of worth in capitalist economies — and by stamping his name on everything from buildings, vodka and Bibles, he has sought heroism. Even before he ran for president, you could buy a Trump-branded action figure.
According to American anthropologist Ernest Becker, whose Pulitzer Prize-winning book The Denial of Death laid the intellectual groundwork for TMT:
“The real world …tells man that he is a small trembling animal who will decay and die. Illusion changes all this, makes man seem important, vital to the universe, immortal in some way.”
From his fixation on gold, grandiosity and golden locks despite his age, Trump is a master of illusion, crafting a mirage of super heroism for his MAGA base.
Heroism can also be pursued vicariously. This is something many of us do with our preferred sport teams, celebrities and politicians, feeling their victories and losses like our own.
Good timing?
Trump’s victory over death in Butler two years ago — an incident that is now being questioned even by his MAGA supporters — helped carry him across the finish line. His chief of staff, Susie Wiles, said Butler was a “big part” of his victory in 2024.
And so what to make of the recent apparent attempt on his life? Will it help resuscitate his historically low approval ratings?
In crass political terms, historical precedent suggests the assassination attempt couldn’t have happened at a better time. Tarred by his association with deceased pedophile Jeffrey Epstein and prosecuting an unpopular war of choice against Iran that is costing billions while raising gas prices for voters, Trump needed a lifeline.
The timing is so good for him that conspiracy theories immediately began to swirl that the attack was an inside job aimed at bolstering Trump’s slumping approval ratings.
Avoiding political death?
It is unlikely, however, that this recent incident will stave off political death. After the political failures of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the Epstein files and a risky war with no clear exit, Trump is politically weakened.
Influential members of his own base, including former Fox News pundit Tucker Carlson, are no longer lionizing him, instead musing whether he might be the anti-Christ.
Images from the recent shooting suggest weakness, not vitality. Secret service agents struggled to get him out of his seat likely due to ongoing mobility issues (though Trump claims his sluggishness was due to courageously overseeing the action).
Likewise, instead of lifting his fist triumphantly like in Butler, Trump fell down as he was rushed off stage (again, he claims he was told to get down, but his exit looks weak).
While his team will spin the latest shooting as further evidence of his super humanity, Trump is looking more politically and existentially mortal by the day.
Trump had his time in the sun, but like Icarus, his hubris and overreach are finally melting his wings. While illusion can obscure the inevitable for a while, what goes up must always come down.
James K. Rowe, Associate Professor of Political Ecology, University of Victoria
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.