Pennsylvania primary results reveal fatal flaw for Trump in must-win battleground state

24 April 2024

While both parties have already had their presumptive presidential nominees for more than a month, Tuesday's Republican presidential primary in Pennsylvania revealed a huge opening for President Joe Biden in the critical swing state.

According to the New York Times' official election results, former President Donald Trump garnered more than 789,000 votes in the Keystone State, giving him 83.4% of the GOP vote. However, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley — who suspended her 2024 Republican primary campaign after the March 8 Super Tuesday nominating contests — still managed to win 16.6% of the vote, with Republicans casting more than 156,000 ballots for her.

And as Axios reported, Pennsylvania's primaries are closed, meaning only registered Democrats and registered Republicans can vote in their party's respective primaries. This suggests that there is a considerable number of Republican voters in the commonwealth who are wary about having Trump represent the GOP in the November general election, and that Biden may be able to win them over in the next six months.

Pennsylvania's 20 Electoral College votes (19 in 2024) played a deciding role in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, with Trump narrowly winning the commonwealth by just over 44,000 votes in his first campaign, and Biden winning his home state by roughly 80,000 votes in the subsequent election. This means that, assuming the electorate is similar to 2020, Biden could take Pennsylvania in November by peeling roughly half of Haley's base away from Trump.

This pattern has also held true in other major battleground states. In Georgia — which, like Pennsylvania, went for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020 — tens of thousands of Republican primary voters expressed their distaste for Trump at the ballot box. The Peach State's primary was held roughly a week after Haley suspended her campaign. And while approximately 50,000 of the 77,000 Republicans who voted for Haley in Georgia did so via early voting prior to her officially dropping out of the race, the remainder cast their ballots after she ended her campaign.

Biden wasted no time in reaching out to Haley voters after the former South Carolina governor bowed out. In an official statement, the 46th president of the United States commended her for her "courage" in standing up to Trump, and in acknowledging the "chaos" that "always follows" his rival.

"Donald Trump made it clear he doesn't want Nikki Haley's supporters. I want to be clear: There is a place for them in my campaign," Biden stated. "I know there is a lot we won't agree on. But on the fundamental issues of preserving American democracy, on standing up for the rule of law, on treating each other with decency and dignity and respect, on preserving NATO and standing up to America's adversaries, I hope and believe we can find common ground."

Biden's statement was a stark contrast from how Trump responded to Haley — his last remaining primary opponent — after she suspended her campaign. On his Truth Social platform, the former president gloated about how his former UN ambassador got "trounced" at the polls, and has yet to make any official entreaty to her base.

"Nikki Haley got TROUNCED last night, in record-setting fashion," Trump posted. "Much of her money came from Radical Left Democrats, as did many of her voters."

Haley, who still has yet to make any official endorsement in the 2024 general election, notably refrained from endorsing Trump despite unsuccessful primary candidates traditionally lining up behind their party's presumptive nominee. The longtime Republican said during her concession speech that Trump would have to "earn" the votes of her supporters.

"At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away," Haley said. "And our conservative cause badly needs more people. This is now his time for choosing."

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