'This is a betrayal': Trump just delivered a 'gut punch' to his own voters

U.S. President Donald Trump gestures as he delivers remarks on the "Trump Accounts" tax-advantaged investment program at Wheeler High School in Marietta, Georgia, U.S., July 22, 2026. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Since President Donald Trump launched a new trade war with Canada over the weekend, experts have been digging into who will be most directly impacted by the economic chaos that will ensue. According to reporting by veteran political journalist Greg Sargent, Trump’s latest move is a “betrayal” of his own voters, and with the midterms looming, it will be “terrible for the GOP.”

After trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada collapsed on Friday, Trump announced a barrage of 50 percent tariffs against the American ally, and Canada said it would respond in kind. According to Sargent, “Trump's insane new trade war with Canada is terrible for the GOP: Its impact will hit right in the heart of the Midwest, where many midterm races will be decided.” In other words, “it’s handing Democrats a weapon in the homestretch of these contests to win over rural Americans and others who are experiencing all this endless derangement in very concrete ways.”

As Josh Turek, a Democrat who is challenging Representative Ashley Hinson (R-IA) for the open Senate seat in Iowa, explained, “You talk to farmers, and they’ll tell you it’s one gut punch after another.” This has included Trump’s war on Iran, which is driving up fertilizer and diesel prices, and his effort to reduce beef prices by importing huge amounts of it, which will undercut American producers. In the face of such decisions, says Turek, Iowans have taken up a frequent refrain: “This is betrayal.”

According to Sargent, “Trump is now threatening 50 percent tariffs on cars, trucks, and auto parts. How will that go over in Ohio and Michigan, where there are two big Senate races? The trade war will directly hurt agriculture industry in contested House districts in Pennsylvania.” As Sargent writes, “All this gives Dems a potent line of attack on incumbent Republicans: that they’ve done nothing to resist the tariffs, even though the levies constitute a huge usurpation of their own power — that is, of Congress’s power to tax.” Put another way, “Trump's trade war with Canada is a good midterm issue because it clearly shows how GOP Congress rolls over for a madman in ways that concretely hurt ordinary people.”

Despite the obvious blowback to come, Trump has been adamant that “we don’t need Canada, they need us!” But according to Sargent, “Whether we ‘need’ Canada or not, the fact remains that a lot of trade currently takes place between the two countries. You know who actually can’t afford for all this to be upended right now? Republican incumbents and candidates in the Midwest, that’s who. So ‘we’ may not ‘need’ Canada, but Republicans in the region really ‘need’ Trump to not rupture trade relations with our ally for the next two months.”

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