U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office, as U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum look on, in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 23, 2025. REUTERS/Kent Nishimura
President Donald Trump claims that Iran told him that the country was collapsing, but a new CIA analysis made it clear that the claim is not rooted in reality.
TIME Magazine reported the frequent messages coming out of the Trump administration claiming victory over Iran, but a leak from a CIA analysis suggests the opposite is the case.
What has collapsed is the talks between Iran and the U.S. after Trump cut a late-April meeting with Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. He claimed the flight to Pakistan would take too long.
“Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work!” Trump said. “Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their ‘leadership.’ Nobody knows who is in charge, including them.”
JD Vance was also going to meet with Iranian leaders, but Trump canceled that at the last minute, too.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that Iran's leaders are "very good negotiators." But Trump said on Sunday that the problems were "infighting" among Iran's various political factions.
"A confidential new CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 months before facing more severe economic hardship, a finding that contradicts those hailing an imminent collapse," wrote Washington Post reporter John Hudson.
"U.S. intel also indicates that Iran retains about 75 percent of its pre-war inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its pre-war stockpiles of missiles, per a U.S. official," Hudson continued. "The regime has also been able to recover underground storage facilities and repair damaged missiles."
Independent journalist Terry Moran commented on X, "His own CIA is telling policymakers: Iran can outlast the U.S. naval blockade for at least 3-4 months; retains 70 percent of pre-war inventories of missiles and launchers; has reopened most underground storage facilities; And still has the U."
The report also cited an early April U.S. intelligence community assessment that "more than half of Iran’s missile launchers were still intact and that it had thousands of one-way attack drones in its arsenal."
Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, wrote on X, “What started as a war supposedly aimed at toppling the regime and dismantling its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities may instead leave Iran’s regime stronger than before — empowered by sanctions relief, still retaining significant missile capabilities, continuing support for its proxies, and almost certainly preserving uranium enrichment on its own soil.’’
Ex-Republican Tim Miller at The Bulwark mocked Trump's claims about Iran on X, writing, "I just got off the phone with President Trump he says he expects a really great deal imminently and if it falls thru (sic) Iran will get blown to 'smithereens.' He also said he’s cutting back on burgers and plans to be able to see his d—— again in the next 2 weeks. Must credit."
In his report, Hudson characterized the administration as constantly portraying the war as an overwhelming success.