U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House, January 20, 2026. REUTERS Nathan Howard
The Republicans' chances of being the anti-Donald Trump and winning in 2028 weren't a long shot, but they might be now, said Greg Sargent, The New Republic's host of "The Daily Blast."
Chatting with longtime columnist Paul Waldman, the two agreed that if Democrats invest in maintaining the gains they made in Texas, they could carry them in 2028. The trick is investing and working outside traditional election cycles, which isn't the Democratic Party's strong suit.
"They can build something, if they find the means and the will to invest in it," said Waldman. "And that could be the biggest battleground of the 2028 election."
Politico spoke with several Republicans last week about the election shifting so significantly that it is causing panic among the GOP hopefuls for president.
“Last night undoubtedly made the mechanics of winning in 2028 harder for Republicans,” former Trump 2020 campaign manager Bill Stepien told Politico. “Waging a campaign for president in Texas is big, expensive, and not something Republicans have had to do for a long time. The impacts of last night are real.”
The map is almost like a snow globe, Sargent said, and "it has been shaken violently now."
"If Democrats win Texas," Waldman agreed, "In any presidential campaign in the near future there is absolutely no way that Republicans can win the presidency. And if Democrats were smart, they would take a couple billion dollars — that's billion with a 'B' — and open up an office in every single one of Texas' 254 counties and really start organizing on the ground. Because that can be the entire ballgame."
He noted that where Democrats won in the election is from "shifting demographics, new political realities" and extraordinary. "It's impossible to overstate just what an earthquake it was there." He believes that Democrats could "build something" in the state.
Sargent conceded that it's unknown how solid the Democratic gain is in Texas. "But I think now, Republicans have to worry about it in a new way. They're going to have, at an absolute minimum, spend enormous sums of money to prevent it from slipping away for the reasons you said. But you can even go broader and say what happened in The South is big for the electoral map. I really think that North Carolina may be coming into the Democratic column now. It's still a swing state. Very much a swing state. It will be incredibly hard-fought in the 2028 presidential election. But Trump only won it by 3 points in 2024."
Making inroads into rural North Carolina, he said, gives Democrats an edge.
Waldman made it clear that while Democrats have harnessed substantial gains in 2026, Republicans will still lead the White House in 2028 and that will impact how voters feel going into that election.
"That's just a matter of who the president is. Even though Democrats will have a lot of opportunity to exercise their newfound authority in Congress. When people go to the 2028 election, the Republicans are still going to seem like the ones in charge. And if you want to throw the bums out, you're going to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee," said Waldman.