Republicans admit Texas is 'too close for comfort' as Ted Cruz’s Senate race narrows

24 September 2024

Texas is typically regarded as one of the safest states for Republicans. But polls are showing Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) within the margin of error of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), leading some in the GOP to worry the Lone Star State's junior U.S. senator could be in more danger of losing his reelection race than previously thought.

The New York Times reported Tuesday that Texas Republicans are now wondering if Cruz will be able to win a third term given Allred's aggressive ad spending and campaigning across the state. While former President Donald Trump is comfortably ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by six points according to the latest polling, FiveThirtyEight's aggregated polling shows Allred and Cruz are neck-and-neck.

"The current reality is that Texas is too close for comfort," Travis County Republican Party chairman Matt Mackowiak wrote in a letter to Texas GOP leaders posted to X (formerly Twitter). "[I]t is time to re-dedicate ourselves with urgency, strategy, and teamwork for the days that remain."

According to the Times, no Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas for approximately 30 years. But Allred is spending massive sums in an effort to defeat Cruz, with OpenSecrets showing him with $10.4 million in cash on hand as of June 30, after spending more than $27 million so far.

In 2018, Cruz barely held onto his seat after a battle with former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas), who came within three percentage points of ousting him. Texas has arguably become even more competitive for Republicans since then, with the state adding more than a million new residents in the past five years. U.S. Census Bureau data shows that Texas has 30.5 million residents as of 2023, whereas it had 29.2 million residents in 2020.

Cruz's white-knuckling through the remainder of the campaign cycle could be due to the prevalence of the abortion issue in the November election. As journalist Joe Perticone recently wrote in the Bulwark, the Texas senator has made his opposition to abortion a cornerstone of his political philosophy since his first Senate campaign in 2012. But since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, Cruz has been playing defense as the issue continues to win elections even in deep-red states like Kansas, Kentucky and Montana.

"[Cruz] opposed abortion in all cases except those where the life of the mother was at risk," Perticone wrote, noting that in 2024 he "has decided to push the issue to the backseat of his policy agenda, if not avoid it entirely."

""Since Dobbs v. Jackson was handed down, states like Texas have begun implementing sweeping abortion bans. These have become something of a political liability for Republicans," he added.

Ted Cruz has also not been free of scandal in recent memory. During a 2021 winter weather emergency, Cruz was spotted at the airport on his way to a luxury resort in Cancun, Mexico while his constituents were struggling to keep their heat on. He ultimately had to reschedule his vacation due to the political fallout from his Cancun trip. The Times noted that Allred brought up Cruz's Cancun trip in a recent campaign ad.

Click here to read the Times' report in full (subscription required).

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