Democratic US Senate candidate and Iowa State Representative Josh Turek (D) reaches to shake hands with an election worker as he arrives to participate in the US midterm elections on Election Day, in Council Bluffs, Iowa, US, November 3, 2026. REUTERS/Vincent Alban
Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is leaving office after 11 years and notable viral missteps in her final years in office. Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek and GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson were locked in a tough race, with each swapping the lead in the polls several times in the past six months.
After Tuesday's election, however, Decision Desk HQ has called Josh Turek the winner of the Senate seat.
October polling has largely favored Hinson, with only one poll favoring Turek. Democrats had a credible opportunity to flip a Republican seat, but neither candidate has established a clear advantage. Emerson found Hinson falling from 50 percent in September to 47 percent in October, while Turek remained at 45 percent. Even among the public polling, most of the leads either candidate had were within the margin of error. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up.
The race came down to turnout. If the enthusiasm gap was large enough, it meant Turek could eke out a win. His only certainty was enough crossover support from Republican moderates and independent voters. Whereas all Hinson needed was for President Donald Trump's voters to come to the polls again in 2026 the way they did in 2024.
Locally, the state also had an open governors seat and two competitive House districts that could flip from Republican to Democrat. It meant that Democratic candidates have all stayed on the same message, hammering the airwaves about the failed war with Iran, rising gas prices and the affordability crisis caused by President Donald Trump's trade war.
Iowa farmers, in particular, have taken issue with the trade war, but fuel prices for equipment have risen sharply, making it increasingly difficult for farmers to break even. Still, Hinson remains popular for some of her policies, and the Iowa Farm Bureau and the Iowa Corn Growers Association endorsed her, while the Iowa Farmers Union endorsed Turek.
Turek said his own party has forgotten farmers in the past. It became a point he has used to build a hearing among voters who may distrust national Democrats. Despite longtime loyalties to republicans, farm distress made some Iowa agricultural voters more persuadable, and Turek aggressively courted them.
The most revealing thing about this race is that both major candidates tried to sell voters on their independence, but from opposite directions. Hinson said that she hoped voters could see her as more than a Trump ally. Turek said that he wanted voters to see him as more than a national Democrat.