Ranch originally settled in 1823 by one of the "Old 300" Texas pioneers who received land grants from Stephen F. Austin.
Folks from The Bulwark appeared in Dayton, Ohio, on Sunday night, where they discussed the election, their predictions and how Republicans went from being the single party in power to possibly losing it all.
Former Republican strategist Tim Miller listed his predictions for where he thinks the Democrats will make gains and where it may not be enough of a wave to sweep them in.
Two of those long-shot states he said he's watching are Iowa and Kansas. In the latter, he said he loves that Adam Hamilton is recapturing faith from the right wing.
"I mean, Adam Hamilton, if you built a person in a lab to appeal to my goodwill, it would be Adam Hamilton. I mean, he is he is just tickling all my erogenous zones," Miller said. "And if he does lose he's going to we're he's going to come on the podcast and we're going to talk about how Jesus helps the neighbor and all this stuff."
In Iowa, he noted that, in his group, he thinks TV ads matter more than they do to his colleagues.
"But if there was one place where TV ads matter, it's like we're going to go into rural Iowa where they're unhappywith the economy right now and just flame Josh Turk and turn him into a liberal crazy person," said Miller.
That's the only option for Republicans to try and maintain their GOP stronghold among rural Americans who are just as angry as the rest of the country about food and fuel costs.
Former Republican and current pollster and publisher of The Bulwark Sarah Longwell explained it using the analogy of a wave. She believes there will be a blue wave in November, but there are two important parts to the wave: the wave itself and the undertow.
"The thing that I'm hearing over and over again from Republicans and focus groups is they are so mad about the war," she explained. "They are so mad — and it's not that they're like nonplussed. They're mad about the war, and they're mad about gas prices. So, to turn out for a Republican — and this is this is the analogy I'm trying to make — is that a lot of times when people talk about a wave, what they think is like an overwhelming force of sort of liberals rising up or Democrats rising up and some swing voters rising up to put a check on Trump. But it will have as much to do with a depression of enthusiasm among Republicans who are just not turning out. Right?"
So, if the voters who are angry turn out and the other Republicans who are annoyed but not enough to cast a ballot for a Democrat, they simply may not show up at all. That's the undertow she thinks is happening in red America.
She recalled a story from a summit she attended with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calf.). He was excited about the 2024 election and commented that Donald Trump is a "turnout machine."
"And I just thought, what are you guys going to do when he's not on the ballot to turn those people out?" Longwell said. "Do you have a party? Do you have an agenda? Is there anything there? So the answer is no. And this is why the historic opportunity is without Trump on the ballot."
She noted that, watching Trump currently, it's clear that even as he's trying to persuade his supporters, "I'm on the ballot," he's so much of a drag on Republicans that they're running away from him. There are Republicans running ads saying they're against the war and one speaking out against his deportation policies in Florida.
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