U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) speak at the Republican National Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, U.S., September 10, 2026. REUTERS/Jessica Koscielniak
Just as Republicans felt they'd reached the bottom, they're rapidly facing a worse midterm environment than even they expected, insiders revealed. Even they may be underestimating how serious the threat has become.
In his DailyMail column, Beltway commentator Mark Halperin recalled an investment banker friend who once told him that sometimes it really is appropriate to panic in a situation. Republicans have reached that level.
With Trump's typical brand of weird, Halperin described it as a kind of "rancid stew for the president's party." However, Republicans are still trying to play into the strong narrative with "the party's muscular TV ads, press releases and social media posts, almost all of which project the confidence of the man who leads them."
"Too bad for them, bravado is no match for reality," Halperin added.
The GOP’s public messaging remains confident. Trump-aligned candidates, party officials and White House representatives point to strong fundraising, campaign spending, voter-contact operations and Democratic weaknesses. They also note that Republican candidates remain competitive in several blue or swing-state races, including contests in Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan and Minnesota.
But behind closed doors, Halperin said he's hearing something different. One bombshell came from Iowa conservative radio host Steve Deace, who warned that GOP House candidates are being told by their own pollsters that candidates Trump carried by 15 points are now within the margin of error. Republicans who are in 10+ Trump districts are likely losing.
He cautioned that the midterm climate might become even worse for Republicans than it was in 2006, when President George W. Bush’s party lost control of both the House and Senate.
The problems are obvious: gas prices, the Iran war, tariffs driving up prices, fears about AI and data centers, White House corruption and an ever-increasing unease with Trump’s behavior and leadership on those issues. That environment has created conditions where macho TV ads and confidence may not be enough.
Halperin cited the Kansas Senate race, where a Democrat hasn't won the seat since 1932. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) thought he would walk away with another win until Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton came along. Marshall wasn't prepared, and it showed in his public appearances.
The Cook Political Report reportedly moved the Senate race there from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican." It doesn't mean the Democrat will win, but it does mean that even in deep-red Kansas, furious voters want more from their lawmakers than Marshall is currently willing or able to provide.
As Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932, it's worth looking back at what was happening then and comparing it to today, Halperin said. Then, Herbert Hoover was president. His tariff policies became associated with the economic collapse of the Great Depression. Trump knows it well enough to say openly that he wants to avoid being compared to the former president.
"I have one primary wish as president, in terms of people: I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover," Halperin recalled Trump telling Axios reporter Marc Caputo during a show in June.
The most telling, the report explained, is that Republican candidates are beginning to distance themselves from Trump on his key issues, such as immigration, which has historically been one of his strongest. Marshall’s call for ICE to coordinate with local law enforcement is one example of a Republican softening or separating from the Trump train.
Ultimately, Halperin closed, "While public polls are horrendous for Republicans, the private ones are worse." He noted that over the past few weeks, as he's written about the possible Democratic wins, not one GOP strategist has reached out to quibble with his statements. Evidently, they've not been that quiet previously.
If voters show up at the polls, he said a "Blue tsunami" could be real.
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