'One step closer to having a majority': Joe Manchin’s retirement was pet project of Mitch McConnell

Senator Joe Manchin's (D-West Virginia) Thursday announcement that he would not be running for reelection in 2024 is welcome news for Republicans hoping to take back control of the US Senate. And according to a new report, it's also the culmination of a years-long effort by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky).

Following Manchin's announcement that he would be retiring from the Senate to "unite the middle," Sen. McConnell reportedly did a victory lap, telling Politico that his caucus was now "one step closer to having a majority" after convincing Governor Jim Justice (R-West Virginia), — who switched his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican in 2017 — to run for Sen. Manchin's seat.

"You can do the math. If we don’t lose any incumbent [in 2024] — and I don’t think we will — he’s No. 50," McConnell said. "I’ve been involved in a lot of recruiting over the years, some successfully, some not. But I think that’s the best recruiting job I ever did."

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McConnell's effort to draft Gov. Justice was effectively a lob to Senator Steve Daines (R-Montana) — who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) — who then scored off McConnell's assist by getting former President Donald Trump to officially endorse Justice's candidacy. According to Politico, Daines' effort to enlist Trump's support was a months-long endeavor in which Trump was ultimately won over with the argument that Justice jumping into the race would drive Manchin into retirement, and possibly into a presidential campaign of his own that could deprive President Joe Biden of votes in key swing states.

With Manchin abandoning his seat in a state that Trump easily carried with almost 70% of the vote, a Republican victory next year is virtually assured. This means that in order to keep their current 51-seat majority, other red state Senate Democrats — like Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Montana) — will not only have to win reelection, but Democrats will need to oust a Republican as well.

Politico estimates the most competitive Senate races for Republicans are in Florida and Texas, which Trump won in 2020 with 51.7% of the vote and 52.1% of the vote, respectively. Democrats managed to pull off this feat in 2022 by not only reelecting incumbents in red states like Georgia, but by picking up a seat in Pennsylvania. Reps. Collin Allred (D-Texas) and Debbie Murcasel-Powell (D-Florida) are currently challenging Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Florida).

"I really am very confident about the map," Senator John Fetterman (D-Pennsylvania) told Politico, adding that Manchin's retirement "wasn't really a surprise."

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