GOP strategist: 'Very feasible' Democrats will have House majority before election day

03 April 2024

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) hasn't even held the gavel for six months, and he may not keep it for a full year if his majority continues to erode.

Amid the ongoing wave of retirement announcements and early exits, Republicans' control of the House of Representatives has gotten progressively more tenuous by the day. Reps. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) and Ken Buck (R-Colorado) have already left the House in 2024, and Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisconsin) is planning his official exit later this month. Buck ominously warned after making his own announcement that the GOP should be worried about "the next three people that leave." Should that happen, Democrats may end up with the majority before the next Congress is even sworn in.

One Republican strategist recently told Time magazine that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) could become Speaker of the House by November.

"It's very feasible that Democrats will be running the House before the election," said Brian Darling, who is also a former counsel for Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky). "It's time for Republicans to have a team meeting and say, ‘okay, guys, this majority is falling apart and if you keep acting like this, we're not going to have a majority.’"

The House in particular has seen a wave of retirement announcements from dozens of both Democrats and Republicans — including committee chairs, those in senior leadership positions and those from politically safe districts. This has made it effectively impossible for Johnson to pass legislation that the far-right House Freedom Caucus has been calling for. When assuming full attendance, Johnson can now only afford to have one defection from his caucus if he hopes to get a bill passed.

Republicans' majority got a big shakeup last fall when former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California) became the first sitting speaker to be removed from his position via a motion to vacate put forth by his own party. That triggered a weeks-long squabble over who would be next to hold the gavel, with Johnson emerging from the fray with the gavel after failed bids by House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minnesota) and Judiciary Committee chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).

However, Darling opined that the House GOP's troubles began in the wake of last year's House Ethics Committee report on Rep. George Santos (R-New York). That report alleged Santos was pilfering his campaign war chest to pay for lavish expenses like designer handbags and even adult online content subscriptions.

"Republicans have completely mismanaged the majority, and it started when they kicked George Santos out of the caucus," he said. "I understand why they did it, but ultimately they were giving away a seat that put them a little bit closer to giving away the majority."

Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-New York) now represents Santos' old district, after winning a special election in February. But Santos may not be done wreaking havoc on the GOP majority, as he's now running as an independent in a swing district currently held by Rep. Nick LaLota (R-New York), who very narrowly won his first race in 2022. LaLota was one of the New York Republicans who voted for Santos' expulsion from Congress, and Santos accused him of corruption in a tweet after he was voted out by his colleagues.

"It has been raised in the local media that congressman Lalota obtained his JD attending Hofstra in day school while he was supposed to be working at the Board of elections at the same time," Santos tweeted. "The questionable actions are? Did Rep Lalota no-show to his tax pay funded job while going to school and if so he can potential have stolen public funds form the tax payers of NY."

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