Republicans are ignoring a November threat hiding in the heartland: Washington Post

America’s farmers once formed a reliable pro-Trump coalition. Now they’re hurting, and the cause is the president’s own trade policies — which have been “waged with little to no coherent strategy” and have “punched farmers in the mouth.” This time, Trump can’t blame a global pandemic for their pain.

That’s according to a Washington Post op-ed by Marc Short, “Trump betrayed farmers. Now real signs of anger show.” Short served as Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff during the first Trump administration.

“Trump’s global war on trade risks upending the Republican coalition across the heartland,” writes Short. “Continuing to ignore the plight of farmers is a risk Republicans shouldn’t tolerate heading into November.”

The statistics for farmers are staggering, Short finds. $34.6 billion in losses last year alone. Bankruptcies are the worst in six years — since the COVID-19 pandemic. Seven out of 10 farmers cannot afford all the fertilizer their crops need — the cost for some fertilizers is up 47 percent — and the price of gas amid Trump’s Iran war has surged.

It gets worse.

Ninety-four percent of farmers’ financial situations have “worsened or remained the same” since 2025, when 15,000 farms closed. Bankruptcies were up 46 percent in 2025 and have jumped 70 percent through May alone this year.

Trump’s trade war with China led to that country, once the top foreign buyer of America’s soybeans, buying zero soybeans from May to November last year.

Canada’s boycotts of American products, the result of Trump’s trade war, have resulted in a loss of $1 billion for American agricultural exports.

Polls in farm country reflect these hardships, Short says.

“In Ohio, JD Vance’s old Senate seat and the governor’s mansion are considered toss-ups,” he writes. “Polls for the Senate race in North Carolina, another agriculture-heavy state, show Democratic former governor Roy Cooper with a healthy lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley.”

Iowa “is currently rated as likely Republican for its open Senate seat but polls continue to show a tight race and the Democrat winning the governor’s race.”

Polls are pushing Republicans to spend heavily on ads in states that were once considered safe. “The Senate GOP’s top super PAC is spending $79 million in Ohio, $71 million in North Carolina and $29 million in Iowa,” Short says.

He reminds Republicans that political coalitions “are not set in stone; they must be won in every cycle,” and he warns politicians who don’t deliver or break promises “will face retribution at the ballot box.”