U.S. Congressman Jim Jordan speaking with attendees at the 2021 AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona (Photo: Gage Skidmore/Flickr)
After what unfolded in Virginia's redistricting battle, the Democratic Party's chance of winning the 2026 midterm election isn't what it once was, CNN data analyst Harry Enten said on Monday.
Speaking to host John Berman, Enten said that it's still possible, but it's a heavier lift.
Citing prediction markets, Enten said that just last month, in April, there was an 86 percent chance that the Democrats would take back the House. Today, that number has dropped by 10 percent. That said, it's still high, at 76 percent.
The job for Democrats "has become more difficult," Enten explained.
"Why is that? Because let's take a look at the national House vote margin. You know, for control, you under the current lines, you know, the ones that were fought under in the 2024 election cycle," said Enten.
"For example," he continued, "they needed to win the national House vote by less than a point. They basically just needed to win the national House vote, and they'd win a majority. But look where it is now with redistricting. Now they have to win the national House vote by somewhere between 3 and 4 points. Based, of course, upon what the rest of the redistricting cycle looks like."
He explained that regardless of how the "nut" is cracked, Democrats can still win; however, they must climb a higher mountain to take back the House than they did a few weeks ago.
The good news is that the current lead shows Democrats are still favored to win six districts more than Republicans, and they only need three to four. It's still a win, but it's a lower number than Democrats would likely prefer, he said.
"But the bottom line is this, their lead right now in the national House vote polls is higher than the margin that is necessary in order to take back the U.S. House of Representatives. Even with redistricting," he closed.
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