Greg Abbott speaking at FreePac, hosted by FreedomWorks, in Phoenix, Arizona in 2012, Gage Skidmore
Ex-Republican pollster Sarah Longwell and election forecaster Charlie Cook on Monday both discussed a "red undertow" in the 2026 midterm election, where it's not just a blue wave, but also an undertow also pulling Republicans down.
Politico's Dash Burns cited more leaked audio from Ken Paxton's lobbyist fundraiser, saying Washington is running his campaign and that everything he does is to appease the president. Burns noted the irony, since Paxton attacked his opponent for being a Beltway hack.
Elliott Morris, co-founder of "FiftyPlusOne," thinks there's also something else afoot in the state races that are just as close as the Senate ones.
"I'm just reminded, you know, Texas is a competitive governor's race right now. Greg Abbott (R), who won by 12 points just four years ago, is now trailing in his New York Times poll of the race. I believe, up for 3 or 4 percentage points. And that is as much an indictment of red state government as you're going to get. And I'm from Texas. I'm from south Texas, where we're having a water crisis right now," said Morris.
He noted that his Republican family members are "exasperated" and desperately looking for officials who can help them. Currently, he said, they don't feel like Texas is stepping up.
"And that, sort of, red state governance, I think, breeds a lot of discontent over time, where people don't feel like they're really getting their needs met," Morris said. "And that just fosters this sense of sort of anti-incumbency, anti-status quo bias we see at the national level too. So, it's unsurprising to me that places like Texas are competitive in this current environment, where people just don't feel like their needs are being met by government."
It's also unfolding at a time when President Donald Trump, the least popular president during a midterm in the 21st century, decided that he would campaign in red states to try and help save some of his candidates.
USA Today reporter Bart Jansen called it a "double-edged sword."
"Trump, saddled with the lowest approval ratings of his presidency, could actually have the unintended consequence of energizing Democrats if he traveled to more competitive states," political experts told Jansen. "His rallies aim to spur turnout beyond where he appears. And Republicans enjoy an enormous fundraising advantage to spend on television ads that can spread his message."
“Trump is a double-edged sword,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “Does he have the potential to rile up Democrats and be used as a motivator to get them to turn out? Yes. But Republicans at this point have to focus on turning out their own voters.”